Rob Farrow
@rfarrow.bsky.social
1.2K followers 550 following 170 posts
Senior Research Fellow Institute of Educational Technology The Open University (UK) Co-Editor, https://jime.open.ac.uk/ Co-Director, http://go-gn.net/ https://scholar.google.co.uk/citations?user=j3-x3WwAAAAJ&hl=en (No DMs)
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rfarrow.bsky.social
I think I'm ready to give this one a shot
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matthewterrill.bsky.social
I was already a hard AI-skeptic but this cements my long suspicion that there is no feasible path to anything close to return on invested capital for these data centers. Tech would need 15 to 25 times current AI revenues within the next 2-3 years just to break even. Not financially viable.
"I clearly hit a nerve in the industry, when judging by the number of individuals who reached out to chat," he wrote in an followup blog post. "In total, l've spoken with over two-dozen rather senior people in the datacenter universe, and there was an interesting and overriding theme to our conversations: no one understands how the financial math is supposed to work. They are as baffled as I am, and they do this for a living."
Kupperman's original skepticism was built on a guess that the components in an average Al data center would take ten years to depreciate, requiring costly replacements. That was bad enough: "I don't see how there can ever be any return on investment given the current math," he wrote at the time.
But ten years, he now understands, is way too generous.
" had previously assumed a 10-year depreciation curve, which I now recognize as quite unrealistic based upon the speed with which Al datacenter technology is advancing," Kupperman wrote. "Based on my conversations over the past month, the physical data centers last for three to ten years, at most."
In his previous analysis, Kupperman assumed it would take the tech industry $160 billion of revenue to break even on data center spending in 2025 alone. And that's assuming an incredibly generous 25 percent gross margin - not to mention the fact that the industry's actual Al revenue is closer to $20 billion annually, as the investment manager noted in his previous blog. "In reality, the industry probably needs a revenue range that is closer to the $320 billion to $480 billion range, just to break even on the capex to be spent this year," Kupperman posited in his updated essay. "No wonder my new contacts in the industry shoulder a heavy burden - heavier than I could ever imagine. They know the truth."
Kupperman called that gulf between tech industry spending and actual revenue in 2025 "astonishing."
However, it doesn't even begin to scratch the surface. For example, how does it all shake out when we account for 2026, when hundreds of new data centers are expected to pop up?
"Adding the two years together, and using the math from my prior post, you'd need approximately $1 trillion in revenue to hit break even, and many trillions more to earn an acceptable return on this spend," he writes.
"If the economics don't work, doing it at massive scale doesn't make the economics work any better
- it just takes an industry crisis and makes it into a national economic crisis," he concludes.
Overall, the pessimists broadly agree: it's no longer a matter of if Al is massively overhyped, but when the whole thing comes crashing down.
More on Al hype: Data Shows That Al Use Is Now Declining at Large Companies
Reposted by Rob Farrow
universityaffairs.bsky.social
Parliament is debating whether equity, diversity and inclusion (EDI) should shape $3.6B in research grants. Supporters say it drives innovation; critics call it politicized. How should Canada balance equity and excellence?

🔗 http://bit.ly/43dhcZc

#EDI #Research #Policy
Parliament reviews EDI for research grants - University Affairs
Witnesses testify for and against applying diversity criteria to scientific funding.
bit.ly
Reposted by Rob Farrow
ashleylynch.bsky.social
A lesson I had to learn in the last couple years is that as long as the tech industry has thrown all its money behind something then laws like copyright don’t matter.
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paulcrider.liberalcurrents.com
He's right.
justinhendrix.bsky.social
Macron remarks are notable- some quotes: "We have been incredibly naive in entrusting our democratic space to social networks that are controlled either by large American entrepreneurs or large Chinese companies, whose interests are not at all the survival or proper functioning of our democracies."
defenddemocracy.bsky.social
President Macron: “Europeans, let's wake up!

We have been incredibly naive in entrusting our democratic space to social networks.”

defenddemocracy.eu/macron-democ...
Reposted by Rob Farrow
ilkayholt.bsky.social
#OpenScience Statement from UN's Secretary-General’s Scientific Advisory Board. "this Scientific Advisory Board calls for urgent cooperation to advance science as a global public good – and we stress that doing so requires accelerated transformation to open science." www.un.org/scientific-a...
Open Science | Secretary-General’s Scientific Advisory Board
Open science — the practices of widely sharing all forms of scientific knowledge — offers crucial benefits to the vitality of research, to connecting science to policy-makers and society, and to…
www.un.org
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ukanticorruptioncoalition.org
⬇️ This is the first time a British politician will be found guilty under the UK Bribery Act.
spotlightcorruption.org
🚨 BREAKING: The former leader of Reform UK in Wales, Nathan Gill, has pleaded guilty to #bribery, admitting he received corrupt payments as a Brexit Party MEP in exchange for making statements in the European Parliament to promote Russia’s interests in #Ukraine.
Reform UK’s ex-leader in Wales Nathan Gill pleads guilty to bribery charges
Gill admits to eight charges while an elected member of the European parliament
www.theguardian.com
rfarrow.bsky.social
Strategy: wait until Palestine is destroyed, then recognise it
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rezekjoe.bsky.social
Academia dot edu licensing agreement says it can use your likeness and voice and publications in any manner they want, world wide.
hystericalblkns.bsky.social
If you’re on academia dot edu, let me suggest that you strongly consider deleting your account.
The new TOC from academia dot edu. 

By creating an Account with Academia.edu, you grant us a worldwide, irrevocable, non-exclusive, transferable license, permission, and consent for Academia.edu to use your Member Content and your personal information (including, but not limited to, your name, voice, signature, photograph, likeness, city, institutional affiliations, citations, mentions, publications, and areas of interest) in any manner, including for the purpose of advertising, selling, or soliciting the use or purchase of Academia.edu's Services.
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kashana.blacksky.app
You want to be alive, but they want you dead. We’re a new, well, funded democratic group that thinks you can meet them halfway.
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go-gn.bsky.social
We were delighted to join you for #OpenFest25! Thanks so much for making us so welcome at this fantastic event 😀
@rfarrow.bsky.social @beckpitt.bsky.social
jenniad.bsky.social
Building diverse open research networks and communities session now underway at #OpenFest25

Rob Farrow, Beck Pitt & Carina Bossu are speaking about the Global OER Graduate Network, which has special interests in amplifying research from the global South.
rfarrow.bsky.social
Up bright and early to head to University of Oxford for the 1st AIEOU Collaborator Conference @ai-e-ou.bsky.social
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Reposted by Rob Farrow
hypervisible.blacksky.app
“The truth is that artificial intelligence, no matter how sophisticated it may appear, is still massively dependent on the most precarious human labor on the planet. An untold number of digital workers, estimated by the World Bank to be well over one hundred million globally.”
My New Op-Ed in the Culture Pages of Magazine L’Espresso | Antonio A. Casilli
A new article of Yours Truly is featured in the culture pages of the Italian magazine L’Espresso. I introduce the readers to our award-winning documentary In the Belly of AI, which I co-wrote and that...
www.casilli.fr
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anitaleirfall.bsky.social
Philosophy majors rank higher than all other majors on verbal & logical reasoning, according to our new study published in the J of the American Philosophical Assoc. They also tend to display more intellectual virtues such as curiosity & open-mindedness theconversation.com/studying-phi... #philsky
Studying philosophy does make people better thinkers, according to new research on more than 600,000 college grads
Philosophers are fond of saying that their field boosts critical thinking. Two of them decided to put that claim to the test.
theconversation.com
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seamas.bsky.social
- you clean up that banksy?
- sure did, your honour, leaving a perfect, permanent outline, imbuing the work with real fuckin gravitas while making its point better than the artist did himself just like you asked
adrianandshane.bsky.social
They erased the new Banksy mural in London. But the stain remains.
Side-by-side images of Banksy’s mural on the Royal Courts of Justice in London. On the left, the artwork appears faded and scrubbed, leaving only a ghostly outline of a judge raising a gavel over a protester holding a placard. On the right, the mural is fully visible in sharp black and white stencil, showing a judge in a traditional white wig and robes striking down at a protester who defends himself with a bloodied sign.
Reposted by Rob Farrow
olivia.science
Finally! 🤩 Our position piece: Against the Uncritical Adoption of 'AI' Technologies in Academia:
doi.org/10.5281/zeno...

We unpick the tech industry’s marketing, hype, & harm; and we argue for safeguarding higher education, critical
thinking, expertise, academic freedom, & scientific integrity.
1/n
Abstract: Under the banner of progress, products have been uncritically adopted or
even imposed on users — in past centuries with tobacco and combustion engines, and in
the 21st with social media. For these collective blunders, we now regret our involvement or
apathy as scientists, and society struggles to put the genie back in the bottle. Currently, we
are similarly entangled with artificial intelligence (AI) technology. For example, software updates are rolled out seamlessly and non-consensually, Microsoft Office is bundled with chatbots, and we, our students, and our employers have had no say, as it is not
considered a valid position to reject AI technologies in our teaching and research. This
is why in June 2025, we co-authored an Open Letter calling on our employers to reverse
and rethink their stance on uncritically adopting AI technologies. In this position piece,
we expound on why universities must take their role seriously toa) counter the technology
industry’s marketing, hype, and harm; and to b) safeguard higher education, critical
thinking, expertise, academic freedom, and scientific integrity. We include pointers to
relevant work to further inform our colleagues. Figure 1. A cartoon set theoretic view on various terms (see Table 1) used when discussing the superset AI
(black outline, hatched background): LLMs are in orange; ANNs are in magenta; generative models are
in blue; and finally, chatbots are in green. Where these intersect, the colours reflect that, e.g. generative adversarial network (GAN) and Boltzmann machine (BM) models are in the purple subset because they are
both generative and ANNs. In the case of proprietary closed source models, e.g. OpenAI’s ChatGPT and
Apple’s Siri, we cannot verify their implementation and so academics can only make educated guesses (cf.
Dingemanse 2025). Undefined terms used above: BERT (Devlin et al. 2019); AlexNet (Krizhevsky et al.
2017); A.L.I.C.E. (Wallace 2009); ELIZA (Weizenbaum 1966); Jabberwacky (Twist 2003); linear discriminant analysis (LDA); quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA). Table 1. Below some of the typical terminological disarray is untangled. Importantly, none of these terms
are orthogonal nor do they exclusively pick out the types of products we may wish to critique or proscribe. Protecting the Ecosystem of Human Knowledge: Five Principles