Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 7h

In Iowa's games against FBS opponents, there has still only been one third-and-long conversion.

Iowa is 0-18
Iowa's opponents are 1-25

That's a combined 2.3% conversion rate.

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Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 9h

Some combination of Arch and/or the coaches don't trust him throwing to the intermediate level(where there's the most traffic with lurking LBs and DBs jumping routes).

A normal issue for young QBs, to a degree, but clearly he's avoiding it more than most.

Makes it much easier on the defense.

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Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 9h

Check out this excerpt from my Red River Rivalry preview.

Of all the concerning stats out there for Arch Manning, this might explain his issues best.

Full Oklahoma-Texas preview here:
🔗 www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/betting/best...

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Reposted by Ryan McCrystal

Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 18h

Ohio State only ranks 54th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate this season.

Could Luke Altmyer and Illinois be the first to take advantage of that and move the ball against Buckeyes?

More stats on the Battle for the Illibuck in my game preview:
www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/betting/best...

Ohio State vs. Illinois: Week 7 Betting Pick & Prediction

We give you our college football prediction for Illinois vs. Ohio State when betting against the spread, breaking down Week 7 of the 2025 NCAA season.

www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

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Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 12h

only 2 qualified FBS quarterbacks are averaging more than 3 seconds per pass attempt:

Arch Manning
Aidan Chiles

That is not going to work against Oklahoma.

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Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 13h

Texas hasn't won Red River two years in a row since 2008-09 with Colt McCoy.

They haven't won it two years in a row with different quarterbacks since 2005-06 with Vince Young and McCoy.

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Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 16h

Fewest plays of 20+ yards

UMass, 8
North Carolina, 9
NIU, 10
Coastal Carolina, 11
Wisconsin, 11
Sam Houston State, 12
Army, 13
Kent State, 13

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Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 18h

I've had multiple unsolicited job offers via social media, including my current one with Sharp Football Analysis.

I suppose that could have been possible pre-social media via email, but there's no doubt social media makes it easier for people to come in contact with your work and get in touch

Conrad Hackett @conradhackett.bsky.social · 2d

Has anything great happened in your life because of social media?

Reposted by Ryan McCrystal

Adam Darowski @adarowski.bsky.social · 18h

I’m looking for some research help and this one’s a quickie. I’d love for you to tell me the five most important pieces of biographical information to show at the top of a player’s page. Thanks! forms.gle/NXqneDg8scnG...

Most Important Biographical Information on Sports Reference Player Pages

We are standardizing the appearance of the player biographies across our Reference sites. We aren't removing data, but we want to have the most important data at the top of the page. Pick the five mos...

forms.gle

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Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 18h

Ohio State only ranks 54th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate this season.

Could Luke Altmyer and Illinois be the first to take advantage of that and move the ball against Buckeyes?

More stats on the Battle for the Illibuck in my game preview:
www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/betting/best...

Ohio State vs. Illinois: Week 7 Betting Pick & Prediction

We give you our college football prediction for Illinois vs. Ohio State when betting against the spread, breaking down Week 7 of the 2025 NCAA season.

www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

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Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 18h

Highest interception rate when the defense doesn't blitz and doesn't generate pressure (P4 QBs)

Danny O'Neil, 8.6%
DJ Lagway, 8.5%
Gio Lopez, 7.7%
Arch Manning, 5.2%

21 different P4 starting QBs have yet to thrown an INT under those circumstances

Reposted by Ryan McCrystal

Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 1d

Very interesting. Knowles is an excellent defensive play caller, but it’s starting to make more sense why Ryan Day didn’t care if he left.

Eleven Warriors @elevenwarriors.com · 1d

Payton Pierce said he talked more with Matt Patricia in his first two days as Ohio State’s defensive coordinator than he spoke with Jim Knowles in an entire year.

Payton Pierce Said He Talked to Matt Patricia More in First Two Days Than He Talked to Jim Knowles In An Entire Year

Ohio State linebacker Payton Pierce said he talked more with new defensive coordinator Matt Patricia in his first two days at OSU than he spoke with Jim Knowles in an entire year.

www.elevenwarriors.com

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Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 1d

We saw during last years title run how much the players wanted to win for Day.

Day has spoken about the importance of mental health a lot, and I think he cares about building relationships with players. If that’s not Knowles’ style, it makes a lot more sense why he’s not in Columbus anymore.

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Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 1d

Very interesting. Knowles is an excellent defensive play caller, but it’s starting to make more sense why Ryan Day didn’t care if he left.

Eleven Warriors @elevenwarriors.com · 1d

Payton Pierce said he talked more with Matt Patricia in his first two days as Ohio State’s defensive coordinator than he spoke with Jim Knowles in an entire year.

Payton Pierce Said He Talked to Matt Patricia More in First Two Days Than He Talked to Jim Knowles In An Entire Year

Ohio State linebacker Payton Pierce said he talked more with new defensive coordinator Matt Patricia in his first two days at OSU than he spoke with Jim Knowles in an entire year.

www.elevenwarriors.com

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Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 1d

Following up on this..

Florida got the memo and blitzes 21% of the time against Texas. Arch was 4-8 for 16 yards against the blitz.

Oklahoma ranks 17th in blitz rate (39%)

Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 7d

Florida ranks dead last in blitz rate (8%), so maybe not an issue for Texas this week, but something to keep an eye on

CFB Film Room @cfbfilmroom.bsky.social · 7d

A number of high profile SEC quarterbacks have struggled against the blitz this season, but no one more than Arch Manning

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Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 1d

This has the potential to be a WILD weekend of college football.

I think all but two ranked teams (Ole Miss vs Wazzu and Notre Dame vs NC State) play an opponent which could realistically beat them.

7 ranked teams play an unranked opponent with a single-digit point spread.

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Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 1d

Bubba Cunningham to his board of trustees and the boosters

a woman in a lab coat says it 's your mess and clean it up

ALT: a woman in a lab coat says it 's your mess and clean it up

media.tenor.com

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Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 1d

Will Bill Belichick go down as the worst hire in college football history?

I think a very strong case can be made. He took over a pretty good team. They never missed a bowl game under Mack Brown.

And in a matter of months he arrogantly dismantled the program and turned it into a laughingstock.

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Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 1d

I'm probably in the minority having Ole Miss out of the playoff. I see 5 losable games

@ UGA
@ OU
South Carolina
Florida
@ Miss State

I think 2 losses are inevitable. And I'm betting on Lane Kiffin finding a way to lose one he shouldn't. If they win at Georgia though, I'll find it easier to buy in

Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 1d

Here's my projected CFP bracket entering Week 7

The SEC makes this incredibly hard. I'm picking Alabama to win for now, but it's wide open.

I'm sticking with my TCU pick. A 10-2 TCU gets in over a 10-2 Indiana (tho I won't dismiss the possibility of an 11-1 IU, which would make them a lock)

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Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 1d

I think that's part of the misconception I'm talking about though. He's been perfectly fine, just not Heisman-caliber like expected. I don't see any SEC QB other than Simpson who is clearly out playing him. So even though it looks different than I expected, I still see them as a strong SEC contender

Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 1d

Here's my projected CFP bracket entering Week 7

The SEC makes this incredibly hard. I'm picking Alabama to win for now, but it's wide open.

I'm sticking with my TCU pick. A 10-2 TCU gets in over a 10-2 Indiana (tho I won't dismiss the possibility of an 11-1 IU, which would make them a lock)

Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 1d

I think the way teams get covered has so much to do with their recent reputation. We've gotten used to seeing LSU win with offense. So when the offense drops off, that's a surprise and coverage is mostly negative. But the defense is making up for it.

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Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 1d

LSU ranks 19th in opponent-adjusted scoring differential.

They're scoring just 0.6 ppg more than their opponents allow against others (ranked 62nd), but they're holding opponents 18.6 ppg below their average against others (ranked 6th).

I think they're very much alive in the SEC race

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Reposted by Ryan McCrystal

Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 2d

Best P4 offenses at avoiding 3rd down

Vandy, 69%
Notre Dame, 66%
USC, 66%
Arkansas, 66%
Rutgers, 65%👀
Cincinnati, 63%
Ohio State, 63%
Ole Miss, 63%

and worst..
Wake Forest, 42%
Houston, 42%
OK State, 43%
VT, 45%
Maryland, 46%
Stanford, 47%
WVU, 48%

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Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 2d

You know what? Having heard his rambling at press conferences lately, I find this believable 😆

The New York Times @nytimes.com · 2d

From @theathletic.com: The NFL has fined Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones $250,000 for flashing his middle finger to the crowd during Sunday’s game against the New York Jets. Jones, who can appeal the fine, said that he actually meant to signal a thumbs-up.

Cowboys owner Jerry Jones says middle finger was accidental: ‘The intention was thumbs-up’

Jones said his middle finger gesture was “unfortunate" and not intended during the Cowboys' win against the Jets.

nyti.ms

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