Simon Gates
@sim0ngates.bsky.social
I have no need of that hypothesis.
Reposted by Simon Gates
wake up babe, new effect size metric just dropped
Trump: We are bringing medicine down by many times -- and there are two ways of calculating, you could say 1000%, 2000%, or 90% or 80%. The Democrats want you to say 90 or 80, but there are two ways of calculating it
January 16, 2026 at 4:31 PM
wake up babe, new effect size metric just dropped
This is excellent
The full protocol of the study in Guinea Bissau provides no reassurance. If anything is spells out just how insanely unethical the planned study is. The PI who wrote the protocol tried to defend the indefensible by writing to me directly. I responded publicly.
Read 👇
substack.com/@bktitanji/n...
Read 👇
substack.com/@bktitanji/n...
January 16, 2026 at 5:51 AM
This is excellent
Reposted by Simon Gates
'How to interpret hazard ratios', with @dominicmagirr.bsky.social and @timpmorris.bsky.social thestatsgeek.com/2026/01/15/h...
How to interpret hazard ratios
Survival analysis of time-to-event outcomes is very commonly performed using Cox’s famous proportional hazards model. The model estimates hazard ratios for the ‘effects’ of covari…
thestatsgeek.com
January 15, 2026 at 10:52 AM
'How to interpret hazard ratios', with @dominicmagirr.bsky.social and @timpmorris.bsky.social thestatsgeek.com/2026/01/15/h...
Reposted by Simon Gates
FDA drugs and biologics guidance for Bayesian clinical trials is something I've been dreaming of for decades. I am thrilled that this draft has been released!! #Statistics #StatsSky #fda #clinicaltrial #bayes
This is a big deal for speeding up clinical trials, and for pediatric use after adult trials have proved successful. The @USFDA goes Bayesian.
A win for #IBD patients, and especially for kids with #IBD. @crohnsandcolitisau.bsky.social @f2harrell.bsky.social
www.fda.gov/news-events/...
A win for #IBD patients, and especially for kids with #IBD. @crohnsandcolitisau.bsky.social @f2harrell.bsky.social
www.fda.gov/news-events/...
FDA Issues Guidance on Modernizing Statistical Methods for Clinical Trials
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration today published draft guidance designed to facilitate the use of Bayesian methodologies in clinical trials of drugs and biologics, helping drug developers make be...
www.fda.gov
January 13, 2026 at 4:07 PM
FDA drugs and biologics guidance for Bayesian clinical trials is something I've been dreaming of for decades. I am thrilled that this draft has been released!! #Statistics #StatsSky #fda #clinicaltrial #bayes
Only fair to share this widely
Amazingly, Zahawi only got round to deleting the below after the press conference announcing his defection to Reform.
January 12, 2026 at 3:25 PM
Only fair to share this widely
Leader of the opposition, folks
January 12, 2026 at 11:26 AM
Leader of the opposition, folks
Reposted by Simon Gates
“Uruguay did what most nations still call impossible: it built a power grid that runs almost entirely on renewables—at half the cost of fossil fuels. The physicist who led that transformation says the same playbook could work anywhere—if governments have the courage to change the rules.”
Uruguay’s Renewable Charge: A Small Nation, A Big Lesson For The World
Uruguay built a power grid that runs 99% on renewables—at half the cost of fossil fuels. Here’s how its bold energy overhaul became a global model.
www.forbes.com
January 10, 2026 at 8:29 AM
“Uruguay did what most nations still call impossible: it built a power grid that runs almost entirely on renewables—at half the cost of fossil fuels. The physicist who led that transformation says the same playbook could work anywhere—if governments have the courage to change the rules.”
Reposted by Simon Gates
If you think of Trump as an absolute monarch, with no distinction between his personal wealth and power and that of the United States, things start to make a bit more sense. He's like a crap Louis XIV.
open.substack.com/pub/arthursn...
open.substack.com/pub/arthursn...
L'État, c'est moi
From Sun King to Spray-Tan King
open.substack.com
January 11, 2026 at 9:06 PM
If you think of Trump as an absolute monarch, with no distinction between his personal wealth and power and that of the United States, things start to make a bit more sense. He's like a crap Louis XIV.
open.substack.com/pub/arthursn...
open.substack.com/pub/arthursn...
This is so mad
🧪 Here's a science mystery to start the year.
Why are species names for fish and plants appearing in the scientific literature in papers about firefighter injuries, hearing loss and heart attack?
Is it AI? Translation tools? Something else?
nobreakthroughs.substack.com/p/is-this-fi...
Why are species names for fish and plants appearing in the scientific literature in papers about firefighter injuries, hearing loss and heart attack?
Is it AI? Translation tools? Something else?
nobreakthroughs.substack.com/p/is-this-fi...
January 12, 2026 at 6:19 AM
This is so mad
Reposted by Simon Gates
Beyond the personal tragedy, this will be a permanent stain on the UK and its reputation as a civilised country and society (and likely shift the window on indefinite detention).
Why should any other country listen to the UK lecture them about protecting people's right to protest!
Why should any other country listen to the UK lecture them about protecting people's right to protest!
Palestine Action activist Heba Muraisi, 31, said to be “near death” after 70 days on hunger strike,
Palestine Action activist's body 'could fail at any moment' after 70 days on hunger strike | LBC
The three prisoners' demands include immediate bail, with lawyers saying the activists are expected to spend more than twice the standard six-month custody time limit laid out in UK law.
www.lbc.co.uk
January 11, 2026 at 8:59 AM
Beyond the personal tragedy, this will be a permanent stain on the UK and its reputation as a civilised country and society (and likely shift the window on indefinite detention).
Why should any other country listen to the UK lecture them about protecting people's right to protest!
Why should any other country listen to the UK lecture them about protecting people's right to protest!
Incredibly scary... If he does, the same world needs to step up, or we're completely screwed.
Almost can't believe I felt the need to write this but... Is Trump about to attack Greenland?
There has been a clear escalation in rhetoric in recent weeks.
christinapagel.substack.com/p/is-trump-g...
There has been a clear escalation in rhetoric in recent weeks.
christinapagel.substack.com/p/is-trump-g...
Is Trump going to attack Greenland?
It seems hard to believe, but the administration seems to be building up to something
christinapagel.substack.com
January 10, 2026 at 6:38 AM
Incredibly scary... If he does, the same world needs to step up, or we're completely screwed.
World's best bird
January 10, 2026 at 5:58 AM
World's best bird
Reposted by Simon Gates
The Palestine hunger strikers have been on hunger strike for over 60 days and are close to death.
They have not even been convicted of a crime - they are being held on remand (pre-trial) for more than twice the max time allowed, and counting…🧵
They have not even been convicted of a crime - they are being held on remand (pre-trial) for more than twice the max time allowed, and counting…🧵
January 8, 2026 at 3:30 PM
The Palestine hunger strikers have been on hunger strike for over 60 days and are close to death.
They have not even been convicted of a crime - they are being held on remand (pre-trial) for more than twice the max time allowed, and counting…🧵
They have not even been convicted of a crime - they are being held on remand (pre-trial) for more than twice the max time allowed, and counting…🧵
Reposted by Simon Gates
Reposted by Simon Gates
It's New Year, so time to look back and forward. These are 10 things I think we need to recognise in 2026. It’s a response to what I think are profoundly damaging mistaken assumptions I’ve heard and read from practitioners, journalists, and analysts in 2025. Warning: very long🧵
January 1, 2026 at 4:55 PM
It's New Year, so time to look back and forward. These are 10 things I think we need to recognise in 2026. It’s a response to what I think are profoundly damaging mistaken assumptions I’ve heard and read from practitioners, journalists, and analysts in 2025. Warning: very long🧵
Reposted by Simon Gates
i post this story every christmas, and will keep doing so until it stops making me cry
merry christmas xx
merry christmas xx
A real Good Samaritan
One act of kindness that befell Leeds writer Bernard Hare in 1982 changed him profoundly. Here he tells his story.
www.bbc.co.uk
December 25, 2025 at 10:25 AM
i post this story every christmas, and will keep doing so until it stops making me cry
merry christmas xx
merry christmas xx
Reposted by Simon Gates
Reposted by Simon Gates
Letter to the FT that stingingly sums up Brexit and the shit creek we now find ourselves in.
A terrible idea (naive, prejudiced and uninformed) that has deeply divided us and left us poorer and less secure… but unwilling to face up to the damage we’ve done to ourselves. While the EU moves on.
A terrible idea (naive, prejudiced and uninformed) that has deeply divided us and left us poorer and less secure… but unwilling to face up to the damage we’ve done to ourselves. While the EU moves on.
December 24, 2025 at 8:31 AM
Letter to the FT that stingingly sums up Brexit and the shit creek we now find ourselves in.
A terrible idea (naive, prejudiced and uninformed) that has deeply divided us and left us poorer and less secure… but unwilling to face up to the damage we’ve done to ourselves. While the EU moves on.
A terrible idea (naive, prejudiced and uninformed) that has deeply divided us and left us poorer and less secure… but unwilling to face up to the damage we’ve done to ourselves. While the EU moves on.
Reposted by Simon Gates
It’s the run up to the holidays so there can only be one #MethodologyMonday topic - the scientific way to cut your Christmas cake. Published c1906 in Nature by the statistician Francis Galton 🎂🎄🔪😊 Enjoy!
galton.org/essays/1900-...
galton.org/essays/1900-...
December 22, 2025 at 7:57 AM
It’s the run up to the holidays so there can only be one #MethodologyMonday topic - the scientific way to cut your Christmas cake. Published c1906 in Nature by the statistician Francis Galton 🎂🎄🔪😊 Enjoy!
galton.org/essays/1900-...
galton.org/essays/1900-...
Reposted by Simon Gates
Reading the structured abstract alone should set off a half dozen statistical alarms in any scientists head.
The fact that this found its way into Science makes me wonder how we drive home those stats 101 lessons and make them intuitive.
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
The fact that this found its way into Science makes me wonder how we drive home those stats 101 lessons and make them intuitive.
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Recent discoveries on the acquisition of the highest levels of human performance
Scientists have long debated the origins of exceptional human achievements. This literature review summarizes recent evidence from multiple domains on the acquisition of world-class performance. We re...
www.science.org
December 21, 2025 at 3:23 PM
Reading the structured abstract alone should set off a half dozen statistical alarms in any scientists head.
The fact that this found its way into Science makes me wonder how we drive home those stats 101 lessons and make them intuitive.
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
The fact that this found its way into Science makes me wonder how we drive home those stats 101 lessons and make them intuitive.
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Reposted by Simon Gates
Reposted by Simon Gates
Utterly ridiculous to compare a far right racist with a Green Party leader who is currently demonstrating better socialist credentials than the so-called Labour party. If Labour doesn't realise soon that it's the progressive voters it needs to appeal to, not the Reform ones, it's game over.
December 19, 2025 at 9:51 PM
Utterly ridiculous to compare a far right racist with a Green Party leader who is currently demonstrating better socialist credentials than the so-called Labour party. If Labour doesn't realise soon that it's the progressive voters it needs to appeal to, not the Reform ones, it's game over.
Reposted by Simon Gates
evergreen: splaytree, dir. 2010. Biologist Talks to Statistician. 3:32. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hz1f....
Biologist talks to statistician
YouTube video by RunProgramRun
www.youtube.com
October 11, 2025 at 2:33 PM
evergreen: splaytree, dir. 2010. Biologist Talks to Statistician. 3:32. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hz1f....
Reposted by Simon Gates
Encouraging stats here showing 26% reduction in the number of deaths after a default 20mph was introduced in Wales.
That's about the same as the benefit from introducing seat belts, which also caused opposition at the time, but a change that we now all accept.
That's about the same as the benefit from introducing seat belts, which also caused opposition at the time, but a change that we now all accept.
Thanks to everyone in 20's Plenty and Landor LINKS Ltd who worked so hard on our 4th "Delivering 20" webinar on 10th Dec. We had 400 attendees from 165 different local authorities and councils, together with consultants, professionals and other organisations.
Here is the video of the webinar.
Here is the video of the webinar.
20's Plenty for US CIC
Landor LINKS LIVE
youtube.com
December 19, 2025 at 3:05 PM
Encouraging stats here showing 26% reduction in the number of deaths after a default 20mph was introduced in Wales.
That's about the same as the benefit from introducing seat belts, which also caused opposition at the time, but a change that we now all accept.
That's about the same as the benefit from introducing seat belts, which also caused opposition at the time, but a change that we now all accept.
Reposted by Simon Gates
ICYMI: "Clinical prediction models using machine learning in oncology: challenges and recommendations"
--> bmjoncology.bmj.com/content/4/1/...
#machinelearning #digitalhealth #predictionmodels #methodsmatter
--> bmjoncology.bmj.com/content/4/1/...
#machinelearning #digitalhealth #predictionmodels #methodsmatter
Clinical prediction models using machine learning in oncology: challenges and recommendations
Clinical prediction models are widely developed in the field of oncology, providing individualised risk estimates to aid diagnosis and prognosis. Machine learning methods are increasingly being used t...
bmjoncology.bmj.com
December 19, 2025 at 10:16 AM
ICYMI: "Clinical prediction models using machine learning in oncology: challenges and recommendations"
--> bmjoncology.bmj.com/content/4/1/...
#machinelearning #digitalhealth #predictionmodels #methodsmatter
--> bmjoncology.bmj.com/content/4/1/...
#machinelearning #digitalhealth #predictionmodels #methodsmatter