Stuart McIntyre
@stuartgmcintyre.bsky.social
Economics Professor @ Strathclyde University. Own opinions etc. Personal website: https://t.co/vXQXPVXwfW
More broadly, the framework provides a flexible way to study micro-macro linkages and heterogeneous effects of macro shocks.
We hope it is useful for work on distributional dynamics and heterogeneous-agent macro.
Paper here: www.clevelandfed.org/publications...
We hope it is useful for work on distributional dynamics and heterogeneous-agent macro.
Paper here: www.clevelandfed.org/publications...
Incorporating Micro Data into Macro Models Using Pseudo VARs
This paper develops a method to incorporate micro data, available as repeated cross-sections, into macro VAR models to understand the distributional effects of macroeconomic shocks at business cycle f...
www.clevelandfed.org
February 9, 2026 at 5:30 PM
More broadly, the framework provides a flexible way to study micro-macro linkages and heterogeneous effects of macro shocks.
We hope it is useful for work on distributional dynamics and heterogeneous-agent macro.
Paper here: www.clevelandfed.org/publications...
We hope it is useful for work on distributional dynamics and heterogeneous-agent macro.
Paper here: www.clevelandfed.org/publications...
Revisiting the distributional effects of business cycle shocks using US earnings data, we find:
Positive cyclical shocks benefit those in the lower tail most strongly, particularly younger workers, men, and those without a college education.
Positive cyclical shocks benefit those in the lower tail most strongly, particularly younger workers, men, and those without a college education.
February 9, 2026 at 5:30 PM
Revisiting the distributional effects of business cycle shocks using US earnings data, we find:
Positive cyclical shocks benefit those in the lower tail most strongly, particularly younger workers, men, and those without a college education.
Positive cyclical shocks benefit those in the lower tail most strongly, particularly younger workers, men, and those without a college education.
This lets us study distributional dynamics while still preserving rich micro heterogeneity, rather than collapsing everything into summary statistics or functional approximations.
February 9, 2026 at 5:30 PM
This lets us study distributional dynamics while still preserving rich micro heterogeneity, rather than collapsing everything into summary statistics or functional approximations.
We develop a new āpseudo-VARā framework that brings repeated cross-section micro data directly into a macro VAR.
By constructing pseudo-individuals and modelling them jointly with macro variables, we can trace how shocks transmit across demographic and socioeconomic groups.
By constructing pseudo-individuals and modelling them jointly with macro variables, we can trace how shocks transmit across demographic and socioeconomic groups.
February 9, 2026 at 5:30 PM
We develop a new āpseudo-VARā framework that brings repeated cross-section micro data directly into a macro VAR.
By constructing pseudo-individuals and modelling them jointly with macro variables, we can trace how shocks transmit across demographic and socioeconomic groups.
By constructing pseudo-individuals and modelling them jointly with macro variables, we can trace how shocks transmit across demographic and socioeconomic groups.
Existing approaches can track distributional impacts of macro shocks, showing how inequality or different percentiles respond over time.
But they typically cannot look within the distribution to identify which specific types of individuals are most or least affected.
But they typically cannot look within the distribution to identify which specific types of individuals are most or least affected.
February 9, 2026 at 5:30 PM
Existing approaches can track distributional impacts of macro shocks, showing how inequality or different percentiles respond over time.
But they typically cannot look within the distribution to identify which specific types of individuals are most or least affected.
But they typically cannot look within the distribution to identify which specific types of individuals are most or least affected.
New research paper!
We often know how macro shocks affect the income distribution. But we usually cannot see who within that distribution gains or loses. In a new @clevelandfed.bsky.social paper with Gary Koop, James Mitchell and Ping Wu, we propose a way to open that black box...
We often know how macro shocks affect the income distribution. But we usually cannot see who within that distribution gains or loses. In a new @clevelandfed.bsky.social paper with Gary Koop, James Mitchell and Ping Wu, we propose a way to open that black box...
Incorporating Micro Data into Macro Models Using Pseudo VARs
This paper develops a method to incorporate micro data, available as repeated cross-sections, into macro VAR models to understand the distributional effects of macroeconomic shocks at business cycle f...
www.clevelandfed.org
February 9, 2026 at 5:30 PM
New research paper!
We often know how macro shocks affect the income distribution. But we usually cannot see who within that distribution gains or loses. In a new @clevelandfed.bsky.social paper with Gary Koop, James Mitchell and Ping Wu, we propose a way to open that black box...
We often know how macro shocks affect the income distribution. But we usually cannot see who within that distribution gains or loses. In a new @clevelandfed.bsky.social paper with Gary Koop, James Mitchell and Ping Wu, we propose a way to open that black box...
Reposted by Stuart McIntyre
Real-time indicator of #Eurozone economy rose slightly in December 2025; positive indications for the performance of services continued to support #Eurocoin, which also benefited from signs of recovery in the construction sector, @cepr.org @voxeu.org
cepr.org/about/news/e...
cepr.org/about/news/e...
ā¬-coin rose slightly in December
Positive indications for the performance of services continued to support ā¬-coin, which also benefited from signs of recovery in the construction sector.
cepr.org
January 7, 2026 at 10:47 AM
Real-time indicator of #Eurozone economy rose slightly in December 2025; positive indications for the performance of services continued to support #Eurocoin, which also benefited from signs of recovery in the construction sector, @cepr.org @voxeu.org
cepr.org/about/news/e...
cepr.org/about/news/e...
Reposted by Stuart McIntyre
"I was struck by the openness of the discussions, and the willingness of experts from around the world to share the challenges they face and potential solutions to meet them."
ESCoE Engagement Director Darren Morgan reflects on the recent UNSW-ESCoE Conference: tinyurl.com/yc7wbh8b
ESCoE Engagement Director Darren Morgan reflects on the recent UNSW-ESCoE Conference: tinyurl.com/yc7wbh8b
UNSW-ESCoE Conference 2025: Darren Morgan reflects - ESCoE
Following theĀ UNSW-ESCoE Conference on Economic MeasurementĀ 2025, ESCoE Engagement Director Darren Morgan reflects on the event.
tinyurl.com
December 12, 2025 at 8:27 AM
"I was struck by the openness of the discussions, and the willingness of experts from around the world to share the challenges they face and potential solutions to meet them."
ESCoE Engagement Director Darren Morgan reflects on the recent UNSW-ESCoE Conference: tinyurl.com/yc7wbh8b
ESCoE Engagement Director Darren Morgan reflects on the recent UNSW-ESCoE Conference: tinyurl.com/yc7wbh8b
Reposted by Stuart McIntyre
Fascinating new analysis by the ONS on UK #business #dynamism and #productivity. Firms employing a third of workers in the non-financial business economy contributed negatively, and the next third only marginally, to productivity #growth.
Full ONS analysis: bit.ly/48Yhqqn
Full ONS analysis: bit.ly/48Yhqqn
December 8, 2025 at 1:12 PM
Fascinating new analysis by the ONS on UK #business #dynamism and #productivity. Firms employing a third of workers in the non-financial business economy contributed negatively, and the next third only marginally, to productivity #growth.
Full ONS analysis: bit.ly/48Yhqqn
Full ONS analysis: bit.ly/48Yhqqn
Reposted by Stuart McIntyre
We're recruiting for a Research Assistant
We're looking for someone interested in one or more of the following - institutions; governance; devolution; place-based policy; and public administration.
š Apply by 5 January 2026
šhttps://www.cam.ac.uk/jobs/research-assistant-fixed-term-jb48083
We're looking for someone interested in one or more of the following - institutions; governance; devolution; place-based policy; and public administration.
š Apply by 5 January 2026
šhttps://www.cam.ac.uk/jobs/research-assistant-fixed-term-jb48083
December 8, 2025 at 12:15 PM
We're recruiting for a Research Assistant
We're looking for someone interested in one or more of the following - institutions; governance; devolution; place-based policy; and public administration.
š Apply by 5 January 2026
šhttps://www.cam.ac.uk/jobs/research-assistant-fixed-term-jb48083
We're looking for someone interested in one or more of the following - institutions; governance; devolution; place-based policy; and public administration.
š Apply by 5 January 2026
šhttps://www.cam.ac.uk/jobs/research-assistant-fixed-term-jb48083
Reposted by Stuart McIntyre
šNew report from David Waite, Graeme Roy, Stuart McIntyre and Niall G MacKenzie sets out new options for Scotlandās city region policy.
Read more: www.gla.ac.uk/research/az/...
Read more: www.gla.ac.uk/research/az/...
December 2, 2025 at 4:18 PM
šNew report from David Waite, Graeme Roy, Stuart McIntyre and Niall G MacKenzie sets out new options for Scotlandās city region policy.
Read more: www.gla.ac.uk/research/az/...
Read more: www.gla.ac.uk/research/az/...
Reposted by Stuart McIntyre
Great to host a workshop for ESCoE PhD students and Early Career Researchers @kingsbschool.bsky.social, @kingscollegelondon.bsky.social earlier this month.
Find out more about ESCoE's research programme: escoe.ac.uk/research
Find out more about ESCoE's research programme: escoe.ac.uk/research
November 19, 2025 at 10:17 AM
Great to host a workshop for ESCoE PhD students and Early Career Researchers @kingsbschool.bsky.social, @kingscollegelondon.bsky.social earlier this month.
Find out more about ESCoE's research programme: escoe.ac.uk/research
Find out more about ESCoE's research programme: escoe.ac.uk/research
Reposted by Stuart McIntyre
NEW Policy Insights: Next steps for city-region policy in Scotland š”š
Where does policy need to go next and what opportunities are there to strengthen regional working?
@davidwglasgow.bsky.social @graemeroy.bsky.social @stuartgmcintyre.bsky.social, Niall MacKenzie
š www.gla.ac.uk/research/az/...
Where does policy need to go next and what opportunities are there to strengthen regional working?
@davidwglasgow.bsky.social @graemeroy.bsky.social @stuartgmcintyre.bsky.social, Niall MacKenzie
š www.gla.ac.uk/research/az/...
November 14, 2025 at 11:03 AM
NEW Policy Insights: Next steps for city-region policy in Scotland š”š
Where does policy need to go next and what opportunities are there to strengthen regional working?
@davidwglasgow.bsky.social @graemeroy.bsky.social @stuartgmcintyre.bsky.social, Niall MacKenzie
š www.gla.ac.uk/research/az/...
Where does policy need to go next and what opportunities are there to strengthen regional working?
@davidwglasgow.bsky.social @graemeroy.bsky.social @stuartgmcintyre.bsky.social, Niall MacKenzie
š www.gla.ac.uk/research/az/...
Reposted by Stuart McIntyre
What kinds of careers can you build in and around research, and how do you get started?
Career stories from ESCoE researchers and staff members.
@joshmartinecon.bsky.social @stuartgmcintyre.bsky.social
Career stories from ESCoE researchers and staff members.
@joshmartinecon.bsky.social @stuartgmcintyre.bsky.social
November 7, 2025 at 2:24 PM
What kinds of careers can you build in and around research, and how do you get started?
Career stories from ESCoE researchers and staff members.
@joshmartinecon.bsky.social @stuartgmcintyre.bsky.social
Career stories from ESCoE researchers and staff members.
@joshmartinecon.bsky.social @stuartgmcintyre.bsky.social
ONS has taken a lot of stick recently over problems with core economic statistics, but its response today on the public finance stats - setting out what happened and a path forward - is a frank and useful explainer from the new team that's to be welcomed. blog.ons.gov.uk/2025/10/08/a...
October 8, 2025 at 1:21 PM
ONS has taken a lot of stick recently over problems with core economic statistics, but its response today on the public finance stats - setting out what happened and a path forward - is a frank and useful explainer from the new team that's to be welcomed. blog.ons.gov.uk/2025/10/08/a...
Reposted by Stuart McIntyre
What does this mean for how we understand jobs, unemployment, and the labour market?
Read @stuartgmcintyre.bsky.social on whatās been going wrong with labour market statistics ā and whatās at stake. š š buff.ly/sfvLfFo
Read @stuartgmcintyre.bsky.social on whatās been going wrong with labour market statistics ā and whatās at stake. š š buff.ly/sfvLfFo
Labour market statistics: whatās been going wrong? - Economics Observatory
No one who pays attention to news about the economy will have missed the recent spell of stories about the quality of economic statistics, not just inĀ the UKĀ but alsoĀ internationally.Ā From theā¦
buff.ly
September 3, 2025 at 1:15 PM
What does this mean for how we understand jobs, unemployment, and the labour market?
Read @stuartgmcintyre.bsky.social on whatās been going wrong with labour market statistics ā and whatās at stake. š š buff.ly/sfvLfFo
Read @stuartgmcintyre.bsky.social on whatās been going wrong with labour market statistics ā and whatās at stake. š š buff.ly/sfvLfFo
Reposted by Stuart McIntyre
The quality & trustworthiness of economic statistics have been in the news on both sides of the Atlantic - what's been going on?
@stuartgmcintyre.bsky.social @econ-observatory.bsky.social
www.economicsobservatory.com/labour-marke...
@stuartgmcintyre.bsky.social @econ-observatory.bsky.social
www.economicsobservatory.com/labour-marke...
Labour market statistics: whatās been going wrong? - Economics Observatory
No one who pays attention to news about the economy will have missed the recent spell of stories about the quality of economic statistics, not just inĀ the UKĀ but alsoĀ internationally.Ā From the result...
www.economicsobservatory.com
September 1, 2025 at 8:22 AM
The quality & trustworthiness of economic statistics have been in the news on both sides of the Atlantic - what's been going on?
@stuartgmcintyre.bsky.social @econ-observatory.bsky.social
www.economicsobservatory.com/labour-marke...
@stuartgmcintyre.bsky.social @econ-observatory.bsky.social
www.economicsobservatory.com/labour-marke...
Reposted by Stuart McIntyre
@stuartgmcintyre.bsky.social presents ESCoE work with @fraserofallander.org using innovative time-series methods to assess how UK regions respond to business cycle & monetary policy shocks.āØĀ
#EconStats2025
#EconStats2025
May 21, 2025 at 1:12 PM
@stuartgmcintyre.bsky.social presents ESCoE work with @fraserofallander.org using innovative time-series methods to assess how UK regions respond to business cycle & monetary policy shocks.āØĀ
#EconStats2025
#EconStats2025
Reposted by Stuart McIntyre
Finally @stuartgmcintyre.bsky.social presents preliminary work on measuring regional resilience to economic shocks. Finding measures for resistance, recovery, renewal and reorientation.
May 21, 2025 at 1:19 PM
Finally @stuartgmcintyre.bsky.social presents preliminary work on measuring regional resilience to economic shocks. Finding measures for resistance, recovery, renewal and reorientation.
Reposted by Stuart McIntyre
Two days to go to apply for a Lectureship (Teaching and Research) at @uniofstandrews.bsky.social economics!
www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DMM015/l...
www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DMM015/l...
Lecturer in Economics - AC2407DD at University of St Andrews
Apply for the Lecturer in Economics - AC2407DD role on jobs.ac.uk, the top job board for academic positions in higher education. View details and apply now.
www.jobs.ac.uk
April 21, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Two days to go to apply for a Lectureship (Teaching and Research) at @uniofstandrews.bsky.social economics!
www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DMM015/l...
www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DMM015/l...
Reposted by Stuart McIntyre
The long shortlist for the 2024 Enlightened Economist book of the year www.enlightenmenteconomics.com/blog/index.p... (NB my entirely arbitrary and personal choice)
2024 in reading: The Enlightened Economist Prize shortlist | The Enlightened Economist
www.enlightenmenteconomics.com
December 26, 2024 at 4:52 PM
The long shortlist for the 2024 Enlightened Economist book of the year www.enlightenmenteconomics.com/blog/index.p... (NB my entirely arbitrary and personal choice)
Lots of political arguments in the weeks ahead about plans to remove the UC two-child limit in Scotland, but those aside an important process point - this is a Ā£200m+ a year commitment which has not been costed because it was added too late... #scotbudget fiscalcommission.scot/wp-content/u...
December 4, 2024 at 6:15 PM
Lots of political arguments in the weeks ahead about plans to remove the UC two-child limit in Scotland, but those aside an important process point - this is a Ā£200m+ a year commitment which has not been costed because it was added too late... #scotbudget fiscalcommission.scot/wp-content/u...
Reposted by Stuart McIntyre
And now @econ-observatory.bsky.social is here too!
October 14, 2024 at 2:04 PM
And now @econ-observatory.bsky.social is here too!