Michael Bailey
@trulymably.bsky.social
Reposted by Michael Bailey
Republican Senator Thom Tillis says Stephen Miller is like Grima Wormtongue from Lord of the Rings and Kristi Noem is like Delores Umbridge from Harry Potter.
January 30, 2026 at 10:21 PM
Republican Senator Thom Tillis says Stephen Miller is like Grima Wormtongue from Lord of the Rings and Kristi Noem is like Delores Umbridge from Harry Potter.
Reposted by Michael Bailey
Just say the government is lying. The goal of journalism should be to inform, not gaslight.
A battle over the truth erupts after deadly Minneapolis shooting
A battle over the truth erupts after deadly Minneapolis shooting
Federal and local leaders are sharply divided over what happened and who is to blame.
dlvr.it
January 26, 2026 at 1:29 AM
Just say the government is lying. The goal of journalism should be to inform, not gaslight.
Reposted by Michael Bailey
Alex Pretti’s coworkers take a moment of silence this morning
January 26, 2026 at 8:12 PM
Alex Pretti’s coworkers take a moment of silence this morning
I hate the « bad advice » framing but let’s take what we can get
Oklahoma is the state with probably the highest, most uniform support for Trump.
Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) on CNN: “I think the death of Americans, what we're seeing on TV, it's causing deep concerns over federal tactics and accountability. Americans don't like what they're seeing right now. … [Trump’s] getting bad advice right now.”
January 25, 2026 at 5:50 PM
I hate the « bad advice » framing but let’s take what we can get
Reposted by Michael Bailey
ICE is now responsible for 66% of the homicides in Minneapolis this year.
January 24, 2026 at 4:51 PM
ICE is now responsible for 66% of the homicides in Minneapolis this year.
Reposted by Michael Bailey
My Stop the Presses newsletter calls for a dramatic change of tactics by major media to produce "radically truthful” news that defeats the right-wing disinformation industry. Right now, the media are getting slam-dunked by fascist liars. Here’s a thread with my 10 main points. 🧵🧵🧵
How to build a radically truthful news outlet
The old ways don’t work. Time to declare war on the liars.
www.stopthepresses.news
January 14, 2026 at 1:47 PM
My Stop the Presses newsletter calls for a dramatic change of tactics by major media to produce "radically truthful” news that defeats the right-wing disinformation industry. Right now, the media are getting slam-dunked by fascist liars. Here’s a thread with my 10 main points. 🧵🧵🧵
Reposted by Michael Bailey
Your cat when you're choking to death in your apartment
November 6, 2025 at 9:16 PM
Your cat when you're choking to death in your apartment
Reposted by Michael Bailey
7. The media industry is both unwilling and unable to cover this level of corruption rigorously. Treating Trump’s corruption scandals like those of previous presidents would make outlets appear “biased” and strain the resources of an industry that has been contracting over the past 25 years.
October 27, 2025 at 12:36 PM
7. The media industry is both unwilling and unable to cover this level of corruption rigorously. Treating Trump’s corruption scandals like those of previous presidents would make outlets appear “biased” and strain the resources of an industry that has been contracting over the past 25 years.
Reposted by Michael Bailey
This is several days old. But amidst so much else id missed it. That’s a stunning number. No wonder they about-faced. Reminder of the power of consumers in oligarch era, not subject to the same kind of targeting.
October 26, 2025 at 12:38 AM
This is several days old. But amidst so much else id missed it. That’s a stunning number. No wonder they about-faced. Reminder of the power of consumers in oligarch era, not subject to the same kind of targeting.
Candidate ideology helps! It is not a cure-all - party label matters a ton! But candidate ideology helps roughly as much as incumbency (and that's even using the NYTimes' highly imperfect measure). Here's my take:
open.substack.com/pub/michaela...
open.substack.com/pub/michaela...
October 25, 2025 at 10:52 PM
Candidate ideology helps! It is not a cure-all - party label matters a ton! But candidate ideology helps roughly as much as incumbency (and that's even using the NYTimes' highly imperfect measure). Here's my take:
open.substack.com/pub/michaela...
open.substack.com/pub/michaela...
Hard to do conversation justice in social media. All agree moderates run ahead of president of their party. Question is by how much. Be sure that you look at effects in swing districts - effects in uncompetitive districts muddy the waters. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
October 21, 2025 at 1:24 AM
Hard to do conversation justice in social media. All agree moderates run ahead of president of their party. Question is by how much. Be sure that you look at effects in swing districts - effects in uncompetitive districts muddy the waters. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Hard to do conversation justice in social media. All agree moderates run ahead of president of their party. Question is by how much. Be sure that you look at effects in swing districts - effects in uncompetitive districts muddy the waters. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
October 21, 2025 at 1:23 AM
Hard to do conversation justice in social media. All agree moderates run ahead of president of their party. Question is by how much. Be sure that you look at effects in swing districts - effects in uncompetitive districts muddy the waters. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Reposted by Michael Bailey
Actual waste, fraud, & abuse
FBI, DEA and other law enforcement recorded in Georgetown walking around
“There’s not much going on around here… maybe they’re practicing”
“There’s not much going on around here… maybe they’re practicing”
August 13, 2025 at 9:47 PM
Actual waste, fraud, & abuse
We Warned About the First China Shock. The Next One Will Be Worse. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/14/o...
This administration is stuck in the past on China
This administration is stuck in the past on China
Opinion | We Warned About the First China Shock. The Next One Will Be Worse.
www.nytimes.com
July 14, 2025 at 12:56 PM
We Warned About the First China Shock. The Next One Will Be Worse. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/14/o...
This administration is stuck in the past on China
This administration is stuck in the past on China
Musk’s party unlikely to go anywhere. But if he runs in contested states - that helps Ds (as Kevin says). If he runs in red states - Ds will lose anyway or this opens a path up (+hard to be worse than current Rs). Muskies help Ds in blue states too! (They won’t need it). Take the win, people.
3) taking 10% from Republicans doesn’t win you 10% of house races, it increases Democratic win percents
July 5, 2025 at 10:44 PM
Musk’s party unlikely to go anywhere. But if he runs in contested states - that helps Ds (as Kevin says). If he runs in red states - Ds will lose anyway or this opens a path up (+hard to be worse than current Rs). Muskies help Ds in blue states too! (They won’t need it). Take the win, people.
Some thoughts on Elon's new party
michaelabailey2.substack.com/p/dear-elon-...
michaelabailey2.substack.com/p/dear-elon-...
Dear Elon: About that new party...
Elon Musk raised some eyebrows with his tweet about starting a new party -- with a super legit Twitter poll to back it up, no less.
michaelabailey2.substack.com
June 10, 2025 at 1:23 PM
Some thoughts on Elon's new party
michaelabailey2.substack.com/p/dear-elon-...
michaelabailey2.substack.com/p/dear-elon-...
You are right to be highly skeptical of third party movements. But this strategy, I have to admit, is really interesting. I have many follow up questions. 🙋♀️ wapo.st/3YGenxI
Column | New independent movement wants to deny both parties a House majority
The Independent Center will back centrists that appeal to voters who dislike Democrats and Republicans. Winning just a few seats could break the two-party system.
wapo.st
May 11, 2025 at 4:01 PM
Good stuff from Ned Foley
The Electoral Connection to Constraining Executive Power open.substack.com/pub/edwardbf...
The Electoral Connection to Constraining Executive Power open.substack.com/pub/edwardbf...
The Electoral Connection to Constraining Executive Power
Only Congress can constrain an autocratic President, and only electoral reform will enable Congress to perform this essential constitutional function.
open.substack.com
May 10, 2025 at 4:44 PM
Good stuff from Ned Foley
The Electoral Connection to Constraining Executive Power open.substack.com/pub/edwardbf...
The Electoral Connection to Constraining Executive Power open.substack.com/pub/edwardbf...
Reposted by Michael Bailey
So much for “Trade wars are good, and easy to win!“
May 9, 2025 at 11:50 AM
So much for “Trade wars are good, and easy to win!“
Reposted by Michael Bailey
A cause worth taking up in earnest, even in the likely event of “failure.” www.offmessage.net/p/rein-in-tr...
Rein In Trump's Pardon Power
Before it's too late... And presidential immunity, while we're at it.... Take it to Congress, to states, even to the streets.
www.offmessage.net
May 2, 2025 at 12:43 PM
A cause worth taking up in earnest, even in the likely event of “failure.” www.offmessage.net/p/rein-in-tr...
Reposted by Michael Bailey
Japanese netizens are shocked by a tweet from the US Embassy declaring that Japanese people applying for non-immigrant visas must provide information on all social media accounts they have used in the last 5 years [or their visas could be rejected].
Some are comparing it to China & North Korea.
Some are comparing it to China & North Korea.
April 23, 2025 at 12:42 AM
Japanese netizens are shocked by a tweet from the US Embassy declaring that Japanese people applying for non-immigrant visas must provide information on all social media accounts they have used in the last 5 years [or their visas could be rejected].
Some are comparing it to China & North Korea.
Some are comparing it to China & North Korea.
Reposted by Michael Bailey
this is so frigging insane. we're worried about hardened Japanese tourist/business traveler radicals destabilizing the the US during their visits?
Japanese netizens are shocked by a tweet from the US Embassy declaring that Japanese people applying for non-immigrant visas must provide information on all social media accounts they have used in the last 5 years [or their visas could be rejected].
Some are comparing it to China & North Korea.
Some are comparing it to China & North Korea.
April 23, 2025 at 3:59 AM
this is so frigging insane. we're worried about hardened Japanese tourist/business traveler radicals destabilizing the the US during their visits?
Interesting. A few thoughts/questions 1/N
Our findings using CES data strongly affirm the post-election analysis and conclusions of @mikepod.bsky.social.
Non-voters, particularly registered ones, lean Dem. The "high turnout hurts Dems" narrative isn't supported by the evidence and basing strategy on flawed ideas about non-voters is risky.
Non-voters, particularly registered ones, lean Dem. The "high turnout hurts Dems" narrative isn't supported by the evidence and basing strategy on flawed ideas about non-voters is risky.
Here's Part 2 of 3 from me, @adambonica.bsky.social, @rfunkfordham.bsky.social, & @ernestotiburcio.bsky.social.
All the publicly available data suggests 2024 non-voters leaned Democratic and pro-Harris.
data4democracy.substack.com/p/did-non-vo...
1/n
All the publicly available data suggests 2024 non-voters leaned Democratic and pro-Harris.
data4democracy.substack.com/p/did-non-vo...
1/n
April 12, 2025 at 2:06 PM
Interesting. A few thoughts/questions 1/N
Very cool summary of the state of polling from @jameskanag.bsky.social
www.focaldata.com/blog/bi-foca...
www.focaldata.com/blog/bi-foca...
Bi_Focal #21: Four lessons from a year in research
Explore key lessons from 2024, including innovations in opinion polling, demographic shifts, and the rise of zero-sum thinking. Learn how we expect MRP, 'wisdom of the crowds,' and qualitative researc...
www.focaldata.com
March 25, 2025 at 9:18 PM
Very cool summary of the state of polling from @jameskanag.bsky.social
www.focaldata.com/blog/bi-foca...
www.focaldata.com/blog/bi-foca...