Michael Bailey
@trulymably.bsky.social
Reposted by Michael Bailey
Brilliant new piece by @leahstokes.bsky.social in @theatlantic.com on the real drivers of high electricity prices and how we can design new policies to usher in a new era of energy affordability.
www.theatlantic.com/science/2025...
www.theatlantic.com/science/2025...
Electricity Should Be Free at Noon
And two other ideas for lowering electricity costs
www.theatlantic.com
December 4, 2025 at 1:44 AM
Brilliant new piece by @leahstokes.bsky.social in @theatlantic.com on the real drivers of high electricity prices and how we can design new policies to usher in a new era of energy affordability.
www.theatlantic.com/science/2025...
www.theatlantic.com/science/2025...
Reposted by Michael Bailey
Your cat when you're choking to death in your apartment
November 6, 2025 at 9:16 PM
Your cat when you're choking to death in your apartment
Reposted by Michael Bailey
7. The media industry is both unwilling and unable to cover this level of corruption rigorously. Treating Trump’s corruption scandals like those of previous presidents would make outlets appear “biased” and strain the resources of an industry that has been contracting over the past 25 years.
October 27, 2025 at 12:36 PM
7. The media industry is both unwilling and unable to cover this level of corruption rigorously. Treating Trump’s corruption scandals like those of previous presidents would make outlets appear “biased” and strain the resources of an industry that has been contracting over the past 25 years.
Reposted by Michael Bailey
This is several days old. But amidst so much else id missed it. That’s a stunning number. No wonder they about-faced. Reminder of the power of consumers in oligarch era, not subject to the same kind of targeting.
October 26, 2025 at 12:38 AM
This is several days old. But amidst so much else id missed it. That’s a stunning number. No wonder they about-faced. Reminder of the power of consumers in oligarch era, not subject to the same kind of targeting.
Candidate ideology helps! It is not a cure-all - party label matters a ton! But candidate ideology helps roughly as much as incumbency (and that's even using the NYTimes' highly imperfect measure). Here's my take:
open.substack.com/pub/michaela...
open.substack.com/pub/michaela...
October 25, 2025 at 10:52 PM
Candidate ideology helps! It is not a cure-all - party label matters a ton! But candidate ideology helps roughly as much as incumbency (and that's even using the NYTimes' highly imperfect measure). Here's my take:
open.substack.com/pub/michaela...
open.substack.com/pub/michaela...
Hard to do conversation justice in social media. All agree moderates run ahead of president of their party. Question is by how much. Be sure that you look at effects in swing districts - effects in uncompetitive districts muddy the waters. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
October 21, 2025 at 1:24 AM
Hard to do conversation justice in social media. All agree moderates run ahead of president of their party. Question is by how much. Be sure that you look at effects in swing districts - effects in uncompetitive districts muddy the waters. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Hard to do conversation justice in social media. All agree moderates run ahead of president of their party. Question is by how much. Be sure that you look at effects in swing districts - effects in uncompetitive districts muddy the waters. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
October 21, 2025 at 1:23 AM
Hard to do conversation justice in social media. All agree moderates run ahead of president of their party. Question is by how much. Be sure that you look at effects in swing districts - effects in uncompetitive districts muddy the waters. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Reposted by Michael Bailey
Actual waste, fraud, & abuse
FBI, DEA and other law enforcement recorded in Georgetown walking around
“There’s not much going on around here… maybe they’re practicing”
“There’s not much going on around here… maybe they’re practicing”
August 13, 2025 at 9:47 PM
Actual waste, fraud, & abuse
We Warned About the First China Shock. The Next One Will Be Worse. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/14/o...
This administration is stuck in the past on China
This administration is stuck in the past on China
Opinion | We Warned About the First China Shock. The Next One Will Be Worse.
www.nytimes.com
July 14, 2025 at 12:56 PM
We Warned About the First China Shock. The Next One Will Be Worse. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/14/o...
This administration is stuck in the past on China
This administration is stuck in the past on China
Musk’s party unlikely to go anywhere. But if he runs in contested states - that helps Ds (as Kevin says). If he runs in red states - Ds will lose anyway or this opens a path up (+hard to be worse than current Rs). Muskies help Ds in blue states too! (They won’t need it). Take the win, people.
3) taking 10% from Republicans doesn’t win you 10% of house races, it increases Democratic win percents
July 5, 2025 at 10:44 PM
Musk’s party unlikely to go anywhere. But if he runs in contested states - that helps Ds (as Kevin says). If he runs in red states - Ds will lose anyway or this opens a path up (+hard to be worse than current Rs). Muskies help Ds in blue states too! (They won’t need it). Take the win, people.
Some thoughts on Elon's new party
michaelabailey2.substack.com/p/dear-elon-...
michaelabailey2.substack.com/p/dear-elon-...
Dear Elon: About that new party...
Elon Musk raised some eyebrows with his tweet about starting a new party -- with a super legit Twitter poll to back it up, no less.
michaelabailey2.substack.com
June 10, 2025 at 1:23 PM
Some thoughts on Elon's new party
michaelabailey2.substack.com/p/dear-elon-...
michaelabailey2.substack.com/p/dear-elon-...
You are right to be highly skeptical of third party movements. But this strategy, I have to admit, is really interesting. I have many follow up questions. 🙋♀️ wapo.st/3YGenxI
Column | New independent movement wants to deny both parties a House majority
The Independent Center will back centrists that appeal to voters who dislike Democrats and Republicans. Winning just a few seats could break the two-party system.
wapo.st
May 11, 2025 at 4:01 PM
Good stuff from Ned Foley
The Electoral Connection to Constraining Executive Power open.substack.com/pub/edwardbf...
The Electoral Connection to Constraining Executive Power open.substack.com/pub/edwardbf...
The Electoral Connection to Constraining Executive Power
Only Congress can constrain an autocratic President, and only electoral reform will enable Congress to perform this essential constitutional function.
open.substack.com
May 10, 2025 at 4:44 PM
Good stuff from Ned Foley
The Electoral Connection to Constraining Executive Power open.substack.com/pub/edwardbf...
The Electoral Connection to Constraining Executive Power open.substack.com/pub/edwardbf...
Reposted by Michael Bailey
So much for “Trade wars are good, and easy to win!“
May 9, 2025 at 11:50 AM
So much for “Trade wars are good, and easy to win!“
Reposted by Michael Bailey
A cause worth taking up in earnest, even in the likely event of “failure.” www.offmessage.net/p/rein-in-tr...
Rein In Trump's Pardon Power
Before it's too late... And presidential immunity, while we're at it.... Take it to Congress, to states, even to the streets.
www.offmessage.net
May 2, 2025 at 12:43 PM
A cause worth taking up in earnest, even in the likely event of “failure.” www.offmessage.net/p/rein-in-tr...
Reposted by Michael Bailey
Japanese netizens are shocked by a tweet from the US Embassy declaring that Japanese people applying for non-immigrant visas must provide information on all social media accounts they have used in the last 5 years [or their visas could be rejected].
Some are comparing it to China & North Korea.
Some are comparing it to China & North Korea.
April 23, 2025 at 12:42 AM
Japanese netizens are shocked by a tweet from the US Embassy declaring that Japanese people applying for non-immigrant visas must provide information on all social media accounts they have used in the last 5 years [or their visas could be rejected].
Some are comparing it to China & North Korea.
Some are comparing it to China & North Korea.
Reposted by Michael Bailey
this is so frigging insane. we're worried about hardened Japanese tourist/business traveler radicals destabilizing the the US during their visits?
Japanese netizens are shocked by a tweet from the US Embassy declaring that Japanese people applying for non-immigrant visas must provide information on all social media accounts they have used in the last 5 years [or their visas could be rejected].
Some are comparing it to China & North Korea.
Some are comparing it to China & North Korea.
April 23, 2025 at 3:59 AM
this is so frigging insane. we're worried about hardened Japanese tourist/business traveler radicals destabilizing the the US during their visits?
Interesting. A few thoughts/questions 1/N
Our findings using CES data strongly affirm the post-election analysis and conclusions of @mikepod.bsky.social.
Non-voters, particularly registered ones, lean Dem. The "high turnout hurts Dems" narrative isn't supported by the evidence and basing strategy on flawed ideas about non-voters is risky.
Non-voters, particularly registered ones, lean Dem. The "high turnout hurts Dems" narrative isn't supported by the evidence and basing strategy on flawed ideas about non-voters is risky.
Here's Part 2 of 3 from me, @adambonica.bsky.social, @rfunkfordham.bsky.social, & @ernestotiburcio.bsky.social.
All the publicly available data suggests 2024 non-voters leaned Democratic and pro-Harris.
data4democracy.substack.com/p/did-non-vo...
1/n
All the publicly available data suggests 2024 non-voters leaned Democratic and pro-Harris.
data4democracy.substack.com/p/did-non-vo...
1/n
April 12, 2025 at 2:06 PM
Interesting. A few thoughts/questions 1/N
Very cool summary of the state of polling from @jameskanag.bsky.social
www.focaldata.com/blog/bi-foca...
www.focaldata.com/blog/bi-foca...
Bi_Focal #21: Four lessons from a year in research
Explore key lessons from 2024, including innovations in opinion polling, demographic shifts, and the rise of zero-sum thinking. Learn how we expect MRP, 'wisdom of the crowds,' and qualitative researc...
www.focaldata.com
March 25, 2025 at 9:18 PM
Very cool summary of the state of polling from @jameskanag.bsky.social
www.focaldata.com/blog/bi-foca...
www.focaldata.com/blog/bi-foca...
Happy to see this review of my book from @markpackuk.bsky.social -- and, as always, eager to hear if you have thoughts/suggestions/ideas
theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/polling-at...
theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/polling-at...
Polling at a crossroads: is this book the way forward?
Welcome to the 151st edition of The Week in Polls (TWIP) which takes a look at a new(-ish) book about both the problems with and possible solutions for modern political polling.
theweekinpolls.substack.com
March 25, 2025 at 9:14 PM
Happy to see this review of my book from @markpackuk.bsky.social -- and, as always, eager to hear if you have thoughts/suggestions/ideas
theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/polling-at...
theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/polling-at...
I agree there is no contradiction. What it means to be moderate is up for grabs (ideology evolves!). Many people have strong fixed views (pro and con) on moderation. Simpler perhaps is to say « Ds need to respond to local opinion AND fight ». Doesn’t have to be along 2020 battle lines
Dems need to moderate and fight
Dems need to moderate and fight
There's no contradiction there.
www.noahpinion.blog
March 23, 2025 at 1:16 PM
I agree there is no contradiction. What it means to be moderate is up for grabs (ideology evolves!). Many people have strong fixed views (pro and con) on moderation. Simpler perhaps is to say « Ds need to respond to local opinion AND fight ». Doesn’t have to be along 2020 battle lines
Bernie on board for running as independents! (Btw I only like this in very red or very blue states)
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/20/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/20/u...
Bernie Sanders Has an Idea for the Left: Don’t Run as Democrats
The Vermont senator, who has long had a tense relationship with the Democratic Party, suggested in an interview that more progressives should join him in running as independents.
www.nytimes.com
March 20, 2025 at 8:10 PM
Bernie on board for running as independents! (Btw I only like this in very red or very blue states)
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/20/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/20/u...
Especially interesting on the senate
March 18, 2025 at 1:05 PM
Especially interesting on the senate
Curious why every article headline isn’t “Trumps tarrifying trade war”
March 11, 2025 at 10:28 PM
Curious why every article headline isn’t “Trumps tarrifying trade war”
Elon musk “is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I've ever known in my life.”
Sen. Kevin Cramer: "To the point about Elon -- it's one more illustration of what a good guy he is. And people who don't like Elon have never met Elon Musk. He is truly one of the most gentle creatures and sweet men. He's exceptional in so many ways."
March 11, 2025 at 9:22 PM
Elon musk “is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I've ever known in my life.”