Matthias
@ulumulu.bsky.social
All about elections and polling in the EU.
Based in Brussels, In love with bad puns. Usually grumpy.
Based in Brussels, In love with bad puns. Usually grumpy.
Reposted by Matthias
For me this really brings home the US dominance of things. You’re moving between countries? You speak several languages?* What an odd idea!
When in Europe it’s literally the norm.
*yes I know in the US that should also be a thing with Spanish. Alas.
bsky.app/profile/ulum...
When in Europe it’s literally the norm.
*yes I know in the US that should also be a thing with Spanish. Alas.
bsky.app/profile/ulum...
Somehow none of the tech companies seem to realise that people might speak more than one language. This automated translation feature is so annoying on all platforms
November 30, 2025 at 8:30 AM
For me this really brings home the US dominance of things. You’re moving between countries? You speak several languages?* What an odd idea!
When in Europe it’s literally the norm.
*yes I know in the US that should also be a thing with Spanish. Alas.
bsky.app/profile/ulum...
When in Europe it’s literally the norm.
*yes I know in the US that should also be a thing with Spanish. Alas.
bsky.app/profile/ulum...
Reposted by Matthias
This hex-map breaks down the share of 15-24 year-olds in Germany and the regional contrast is hard to miss.
Eastern Germany shows much lower shares except for larger cities, while many western and southern areas have noticeably more young people.
#30DayMapChallenge Day 25: Hexagons #ggplot2
Eastern Germany shows much lower shares except for larger cities, while many western and southern areas have noticeably more young people.
#30DayMapChallenge Day 25: Hexagons #ggplot2
November 25, 2025 at 8:17 PM
This hex-map breaks down the share of 15-24 year-olds in Germany and the regional contrast is hard to miss.
Eastern Germany shows much lower shares except for larger cities, while many western and southern areas have noticeably more young people.
#30DayMapChallenge Day 25: Hexagons #ggplot2
Eastern Germany shows much lower shares except for larger cities, while many western and southern areas have noticeably more young people.
#30DayMapChallenge Day 25: Hexagons #ggplot2
Rolf Zuckowski > Mariah Carey index
November 14, 2025 at 7:24 PM
Rolf Zuckowski > Mariah Carey index
Reposted by Matthias
So there’s a website called Deer Of St Nicholas which posts Christmas wish letters from Ukrainian children who had their childhood stolen by the war, anyone can pick a child and get them their present and it’s that time of the year again to achingly scroll it for hours again
November 7, 2025 at 8:21 AM
So there’s a website called Deer Of St Nicholas which posts Christmas wish letters from Ukrainian children who had their childhood stolen by the war, anyone can pick a child and get them their present and it’s that time of the year again to achingly scroll it for hours again
Quite interesting analysis, showing support for the euro tends to grow after adoption.
November 5, 2025 at 9:59 AM
Quite interesting analysis, showing support for the euro tends to grow after adoption.
Reposted by Matthias
A reflection of the (party) politicisation of the EU - in previous budget fights, when the Parliament pushed against the Commission and/or Council, it was seen as an inter-instititional fight.
Now, @politico.eu portrays it as "EPP vs EPP", "centre-right civil war", focusing squarely on the parties.
Now, @politico.eu portrays it as "EPP vs EPP", "centre-right civil war", focusing squarely on the parties.
November 5, 2025 at 8:32 AM
A reflection of the (party) politicisation of the EU - in previous budget fights, when the Parliament pushed against the Commission and/or Council, it was seen as an inter-instititional fight.
Now, @politico.eu portrays it as "EPP vs EPP", "centre-right civil war", focusing squarely on the parties.
Now, @politico.eu portrays it as "EPP vs EPP", "centre-right civil war", focusing squarely on the parties.
“We’re watching Rwanda-level mass extermination of people who are trapped inside,” said Nathaniel Raymond, executive director of the research group, in comments to AFP news agency. “The level, speed and totality of violence in Darfur is unlike anything I’ve seen.”
sudanwarmonitor.com/p/fall-of-el...
sudanwarmonitor.com/p/fall-of-el...
Thousands killed and others escape in chaotic rout of El Fasher defenders
RSF fighters film ethnic killings and boast over war crimes
sudanwarmonitor.com
October 30, 2025 at 7:31 PM
“We’re watching Rwanda-level mass extermination of people who are trapped inside,” said Nathaniel Raymond, executive director of the research group, in comments to AFP news agency. “The level, speed and totality of violence in Darfur is unlike anything I’ve seen.”
sudanwarmonitor.com/p/fall-of-el...
sudanwarmonitor.com/p/fall-of-el...
Reposted by Matthias
With all the caveats that the far right hasn't been weakened, only splintered in the Netherlands, it's still very good to see an election where liberal democracy is not on the line and a government with a pro-European outlook is back in sight
October 30, 2025 at 11:32 AM
With all the caveats that the far right hasn't been weakened, only splintered in the Netherlands, it's still very good to see an election where liberal democracy is not on the line and a government with a pro-European outlook is back in sight
Reposted by Matthias
AAPOR's report on the accuracy of 2024 election polls is now out. Polls did better than in 2024 and 2016, but had trouble reaching Trump voters in red areas, and slightly underestimated turnout and Trump support among 2020 non-voters. Avg bias of 2.7 pts. aapor.org/wp-content/u...
aapor.org
October 29, 2025 at 5:29 PM
AAPOR's report on the accuracy of 2024 election polls is now out. Polls did better than in 2024 and 2016, but had trouble reaching Trump voters in red areas, and slightly underestimated turnout and Trump support among 2020 non-voters. Avg bias of 2.7 pts. aapor.org/wp-content/u...
Reposted by Matthias
Frans Timmermans has just resigned as leader of the Greens/Labour alliance, following a poor election performance.
October 29, 2025 at 9:00 PM
Frans Timmermans has just resigned as leader of the Greens/Labour alliance, following a poor election performance.
Reposted by Matthias
Catalan separatist party Junts breaks relations with Sánchez’s Socialists
Catalan separatist party Junts breaks relations with Sánchez’s Socialists
Seven MPs from Junts underpin Sánchez’s minority government
dlvr.it
October 27, 2025 at 1:56 PM
Catalan separatist party Junts breaks relations with Sánchez’s Socialists
Reposted by Matthias
While the European Council in Brussels took the spotlight, this week's events in Strasbourg should set off alarm bells. The European Parliament slamming the brakes on the first “Omnibus” package isn’t just a hiccup – it’s a symptom of strain in the EU’s democratic engine. A thread 🧵
October 24, 2025 at 11:18 AM
While the European Council in Brussels took the spotlight, this week's events in Strasbourg should set off alarm bells. The European Parliament slamming the brakes on the first “Omnibus” package isn’t just a hiccup – it’s a symptom of strain in the EU’s democratic engine. A thread 🧵
Reposted by Matthias
🗳️ Dutch voters will elect a new parliament for the third time in just five years on October 29. Here's everything you need to know about the upcoming elections. 🇳🇱 My colleague Esmee and I wrote a short primer for @theconversation.com.
doi.org/10.64628/AB....
doi.org/10.64628/AB....
The Netherlands is trying to draw a line under a year of chaos with fresh elections – will it work?
Prime Minister Dick Schoof called fresh elections following the first collapse of his government, which would go on to fall a second time within a few months.
doi.org
October 21, 2025 at 8:09 PM
🗳️ Dutch voters will elect a new parliament for the third time in just five years on October 29. Here's everything you need to know about the upcoming elections. 🇳🇱 My colleague Esmee and I wrote a short primer for @theconversation.com.
doi.org/10.64628/AB....
doi.org/10.64628/AB....
“In the medium term, there could be a very good solution, because thanks to artificial intelligence, we will no longer need interpreters,” Merz said at a press conference where Sánchez reiterated his case to recognise the three languages.
AI as the official EU language would be a new twist
AI as the official EU language would be a new twist
‘We won’t stop’: Spain vows not to give up on Catalan language recognition
‘We won’t stop’: Spain vows not to give up on Catalan language recognition
Germany and others are blocking the move, which Pedro Sánchez sees as crucial for shoring up support for his fragile coalition
dlvr.it
October 22, 2025 at 5:42 AM
“In the medium term, there could be a very good solution, because thanks to artificial intelligence, we will no longer need interpreters,” Merz said at a press conference where Sánchez reiterated his case to recognise the three languages.
AI as the official EU language would be a new twist
AI as the official EU language would be a new twist
I propose that every financial year, the top 3 companies per country qualify for the ECB stock championship the next year.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz: “We need a kind of European stock exchange so that successful companies such as biotech firms from Germany do not have to go to the New York Stock Exchange.”
Indeed! Europe needs 1 currency, 1 capital market & 1 dominant stock exchange!
www.ft.com/content/040f...
Indeed! Europe needs 1 currency, 1 capital market & 1 dominant stock exchange!
www.ft.com/content/040f...
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz calls for single European stock exchange
Endorsement comes after Berlin signals readiness to allow more centralised markets supervision
www.ft.com
October 19, 2025 at 7:16 AM
I propose that every financial year, the top 3 companies per country qualify for the ECB stock championship the next year.
I am always surprised when people say that there is a consensus in political science on how to deal with right-wing parties.
In my experience, there is rarely a consensus on anything in political science. There were even jokes in University on how 4 political scientist have 5 different opinions.
In my experience, there is rarely a consensus on anything in political science. There were even jokes in University on how 4 political scientist have 5 different opinions.
October 15, 2025 at 7:02 AM
I am always surprised when people say that there is a consensus in political science on how to deal with right-wing parties.
In my experience, there is rarely a consensus on anything in political science. There were even jokes in University on how 4 political scientist have 5 different opinions.
In my experience, there is rarely a consensus on anything in political science. There were even jokes in University on how 4 political scientist have 5 different opinions.
One thing Germany might not understand is how France manages to hold snap elections within 20 to 40 days 👀
October 8, 2025 at 8:44 AM
One thing Germany might not understand is how France manages to hold snap elections within 20 to 40 days 👀
Reposted by Matthias
Here is something on Czechia's elections and the implications for the EU from me:
#Czechia’s elections mark a populist shift, but Babiš now faces a hard path to form a government. The further he’s pulled to the right, the greater the risk of EU fragmentation.
Quick @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social reaction from @zecsaky.bsky.social
Read here:
Quick @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social reaction from @zecsaky.bsky.social
Read here:
CER quick reaction: The Czech elections
Czechia’s elections mark a populist shift, but Babiš faces a hard path to form a government. The further he’s pulled to the right, the greater the risk of EU fragmentation.
buff.ly
October 6, 2025 at 11:45 AM
Here is something on Czechia's elections and the implications for the EU from me:
Reposted by Matthias
If politics are going crazy in several European countries one after the other, I think it is time to go past blaming the failures of individual political actors (and there are quite a few, both in the UK and France) to looking at the systemic pressures our political systems are failing to deal with.
If you are overly focused on the admittedly increasingly batsh*t character of British politics, don‘t neglect the batsh*t character of French politics.
Ah, the famous French work-life balance
on.ft.com/4mTFYVb French prime minister resigns less than a month after appointment
on.ft.com/4mTFYVb French prime minister resigns less than a month after appointment
October 6, 2025 at 9:35 AM
If politics are going crazy in several European countries one after the other, I think it is time to go past blaming the failures of individual political actors (and there are quite a few, both in the UK and France) to looking at the systemic pressures our political systems are failing to deal with.
Reposted by Matthias
Sébastien Lecornu 🇫🇷 has resigned after serving 0.55 Liz Trusses in office
October 6, 2025 at 7:59 AM
Sébastien Lecornu 🇫🇷 has resigned after serving 0.55 Liz Trusses in office
Everybody just one pun for the czech elections please.
October 3, 2025 at 7:20 AM
Everybody just one pun for the czech elections please.
Reposted by Matthias
The Hertie School mourns the passing of Prof. Dr Dr h.c. Claus Offe, Professor Emeritus of Political Sociology, an extraordinary scholar, teacher and colleague.
We extend our heartfelt condolences to his family, friends and all who had the privilege to know him.
We extend our heartfelt condolences to his family, friends and all who had the privilege to know him.
October 2, 2025 at 2:07 PM
The Hertie School mourns the passing of Prof. Dr Dr h.c. Claus Offe, Professor Emeritus of Political Sociology, an extraordinary scholar, teacher and colleague.
We extend our heartfelt condolences to his family, friends and all who had the privilege to know him.
We extend our heartfelt condolences to his family, friends and all who had the privilege to know him.
Reposted by Matthias
Good observation on a small windows of opportunity for EU politics.
Two caveats though. First, in contrast 2027 is shaping up to be a decision year for European politics, with potentially France, Poland, Italy and Spain all going to the polls. Each could drive the rightward shift in EU politics.
Two caveats though. First, in contrast 2027 is shaping up to be a decision year for European politics, with potentially France, Poland, Italy and Spain all going to the polls. Each could drive the rightward shift in EU politics.
None of the EU's top 10 biggest countries (nor the EU itself) are due to hold their main elections in 2026.
Given elections every 4-5 years the odds of that happening are around 5% - once every two decades or so.
An absence of electoral pressure should offer a major window for reform in the EU.
Given elections every 4-5 years the odds of that happening are around 5% - once every two decades or so.
An absence of electoral pressure should offer a major window for reform in the EU.
September 30, 2025 at 7:12 AM
Good observation on a small windows of opportunity for EU politics.
Two caveats though. First, in contrast 2027 is shaping up to be a decision year for European politics, with potentially France, Poland, Italy and Spain all going to the polls. Each could drive the rightward shift in EU politics.
Two caveats though. First, in contrast 2027 is shaping up to be a decision year for European politics, with potentially France, Poland, Italy and Spain all going to the polls. Each could drive the rightward shift in EU politics.
Reposted by Matthias
Moldova: National parliament election
Turnout at 6:00 PM EEST
2014: 44.17%
2019: 44.40%
2021: 41.12%
2025: 45.76%
Source: Central Electoral Commission
➤ europeelects.eu/moldova
#Moldova
Turnout at 6:00 PM EEST
2014: 44.17%
2019: 44.40%
2021: 41.12%
2025: 45.76%
Source: Central Electoral Commission
➤ europeelects.eu/moldova
#Moldova
September 28, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Moldova: National parliament election
Turnout at 6:00 PM EEST
2014: 44.17%
2019: 44.40%
2021: 41.12%
2025: 45.76%
Source: Central Electoral Commission
➤ europeelects.eu/moldova
#Moldova
Turnout at 6:00 PM EEST
2014: 44.17%
2019: 44.40%
2021: 41.12%
2025: 45.76%
Source: Central Electoral Commission
➤ europeelects.eu/moldova
#Moldova