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(Ben) 本记明

@ulyssecolonna.bsky.social

870 followers 660 following 1.5K posts

Creative speller, fanatical aggadist, I dabble in economics. Member @tochnyi.bsky.social

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(Ben) 本记明 @ulyssecolonna.bsky.social · Jan 19

Hi folks!

And now for @tochnyi.info's (slightly delayed) monthly coverage of the slow-motion crash of Russia's piggy bank, the so-called NWF.

Of course, the decembers numbers were highly expected. Let's see what they reveal.

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(Ben) 本记明 @ulyssecolonna.bsky.social · 8h

Buyah!!!!!!

Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 22h

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov tells the Duma that the government has exhausted reserves in the National Wealth Fund.

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Reposted by (Ben) 本记明

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.bsky.social · 1d

Ukraine's funding gap, including cash and arms, could stand at around US$389bn in 2026-29
• That is almost double the roughly US$206bn that Europe has supplied since early 2022
• EU's ability to help Kyiv finance war will test of Europe's willingness and ability to count on global scene

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Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 2d

Here's an article that goes in depth into the failure of Russian air defense to stop drone attacks on refineries. It turns out they are more focused on reporting how many bullets they spent than how much of the refinery was protected.

dailsmi.ru/15041-etogo-...

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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 2d

I imagine quite a number of other foreign companies who exited Russia JVs will also decide not to excercise their right of return. Their home governments would probably block it plus who knows what additional costs they would be charged.

Kevin Rothrock @kevinrothrock.me · 2d

Mazda has lost the right to buy back its 50% stake in a car-manufacturing joint venture in Russia after failing to exercise the option. Global carmakers sold their assets to Russian firms for symbolic amounts & options to buy them back w/in several years. Mazda is 1st to lose its buyback rights.

Mazda is first foreign automaker to lose buyback rights in Russian JV, ex-partner says

Japan's Mazda Motor has lost the right to buy back its 50% stake in a car-manufacturing joint venture in Russia after failing to exercise an option to do so, its former Russian partner Sollers told Reuters.

www.reuters.com

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(Ben) 本记明 @ulyssecolonna.bsky.social · 2d

Ulysse Hussein Grant?

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Iikka Korhonen @iikkakorhonen.bsky.social · 3d

Russia's manufacturing PMI 48.0 in October, down from 48.2 in September. Eight consecutive monthly drop in output. Employment and new orders also down.

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Reposted by (Ben) 本记明

VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 3d

The informal sector expands during economic downturns and is highly sensitive to fiscal policy. Francesco Pappadà & Yanos Zylberberg show that limited commitment to repay sovereign debt and imperfect tax enforcement strongly influence fiscal policy during crises.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

This figure displays the estimated impulse response function to an increase of one percent of output in government expenditures (as in Born et al. 2020). Panels (a) and (b) display the estimated response (dashed line) and the 10-90% confidence interval for debt as a percentage of output and the default spread. The estimation procedure allows for regime switching between two regimes: low and high tax compliance in the previous period.

The informal sector tends to expand during economic downturns and contract in recoveries, and is also highly sensitive to fiscal policy. This column explores the impact of these informality dynamics on optimal fiscal policy and the risk of sovereign default. The interaction of tax distortions and limited commitment to reimburse sovereign debt strongly constrains the dynamics of optimal fiscal policy and leads to more frequent default episodes and costly consumption fluctuations. Toning down the impact of fiscal policy on future returns to taxation or tempering the threat of default would both lead to welfare gains and more muted consumption fluctuations.

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(Ben) 本记明 @ulyssecolonna.bsky.social · 3d

Qu’en termes choisis ça choses-là sont dites!

(Ben) 本记明 @ulyssecolonna.bsky.social · 3d

Listening to @markgaleotti.bsky.social’s poscast and this ever-so-wily commentator reminds the audience that Putin has had his Sochi palace paid-for by oligarchs.

A subtle stab at Trump’s assault on Congress’ power of the purse to build the Epstein ballroom.

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Reposted by (Ben) 本记明

Darth Putin @darthputinkgb.bsky.social · 4d

Part 3 of @prune602.bsky.social's regular check in on Russian economy. The Sovereign Wealth Fund & Bond Sales: Russia is running out of money.

Like & subscribe.

youtu.be/wVVVppQMDiY

Russian economy update - The Russian Bond market. They're having problems...

YouTube video by In the Bunker with Darth Putin KGB

youtu.be

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(Ben) 本记明 @ulyssecolonna.bsky.social · 5d

For all the 2nd-amendment rhetorics over the past decades, when the goons of the federal police came, the over-armed citizenry cheared on the sidelines.

Amanda Kaschube @amandakaschube.bsky.social · 5d

In Albany Park, they fired pepper-spray balls and arrested U.S. citizens.

In Evanston, a weapon was repeatedly pointed at protesters.

They grabbed workers in Hoffman Estates, landscapers.

And house painters and laborers in Edison Park, Skokie and Niles.

“Feels like state-sponsored terror."

On Halloween, ‘state-sponsored terror’ in Chicago and the north suburbs

Despite pleas from Gov. JB Pritzker to pause federal immigration enforcement operations while children celebrate Halloween, Border Patrol agents tore through Chicago and the suburbs.

www.chicagotribune.com

(Ben) 本记明 @ulyssecolonna.bsky.social · 5d

It is worth remembering that several crucial evolutions in the 90s occured with oil price drops as background. The Algerian civil war, the weakening of the Venezuelian conservative regime and of course the collapse of the USSR come to mind. Strongmen such as Chavez and Putin arose from those ashes.

SaltyDogFella ⚓️ @saltydogfella.bsky.social · 5d

Why plummeting oil price could finally undo Putin

⚓️ ruble truble 📉

Why plummeting oil price could finally undo Putin

There are flickering signs of Russians daring to criticise Vladimir Putin and his war which is now only 70 days short of the length of Soviet participation in the defeat of Hitler in WW2 ..

www.dailymail.co.uk

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The Insider @theins.press · Jul 22

❗ “We must not say it’s for the war”: Hundreds of thousands of Russian schoolkids are building drones that kill Ukrainians

The Insider's latest investigation by @dobrokhotov.bsky.social, @christogrozev.bsky.social, and Tatsiana Ashurkevich.

“We must not say it’s for the war”: Hundreds of thousands of Russian schoolkids are building drones that kill Ukrainians

Sixteen-year-old Vladislav builds UAVs that the Russian military uses for testing electronic warfare systems. Sasha, 13, teaches soldiers how to pilot drones and develops equipment for troops at the f...

theins.press

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Tochnyi @tochnyi.info · 5d

3/ What’s next? Together with @warunitobserver.bsky.social we’re building a public, contribution-friendly platform for RU/UA military unit data - Our goal is to collect as much available data as possible about the units, their soldiers and their equipment

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(Ben) 本记明 @ulyssecolonna.bsky.social · 5d

for context, until c1800, the French population amounted to 1/4 or even 1/3 of the whole European population. Centering on Paris makes sense then.

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Tochnyi @tochnyi.info · 5d

1/ This is the start of something we’ve been eager to show the public for a long time. Our project with @warunitobserver.bsky.social brings structured, sourced data on Russian Ground Forces into the open - and today we’re publishing the first slice on tochnyi.info 👇

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(Ben) 本记明 @ulyssecolonna.bsky.social · 5d

You’ve been exiled? What have you told the emperator yet again?

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Maximilian Hess @maxhess.bsky.social · 6d

Big weeks in sanctions developments, but the fate of Lukoil's proposed sale of its foreign assets to Gunvor and belatedly sanctions-afflicted refiner NIS in Serbia will set major precedents, more from me here: conflictandcredit.substack.com/p/sanctions-...

Sanctions Swords of Damocles hang over Lukoil International & Serbia's NIS

A deal laden with political risks, and precedent potential in Belgrade

conflictandcredit.substack.com

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(Ben) 本记明 @ulyssecolonna.bsky.social · 6d

It’s the Iranian influence, they had to veil their tanks because vatniks were creaming themselves just looking at them.

(Ben) 本记明 @ulyssecolonna.bsky.social · 7d

You took too much, man. You took too much. Too much.

a man is sitting in front of a christmas tree with the words i think i 'm getting the fear .

ALT: a man is sitting in front of a christmas tree with the words i think i 'm getting the fear .

media.tenor.com

(Ben) 本记明 @ulyssecolonna.bsky.social · 7d

Pete is a modern day Viking: more exactly he is the modern Harold Hardrada. In that he took money from the Russians and his first venture overseas will be a total failure.

Reposted by (Ben) 本记明

Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 8d

Another three Youtube shorts I did with @tochnyi.info on the Russian gasoline shortage for those who missed the bigger discussion in last Sunday's stream. The first one focuses on the gasoline shortage's impact on the Central Asian republics.

www.youtube.com/shorts/k7cP4...

Fuel Crisis in Central Asia - RER 1/3

YouTube video by Tochnyi

www.youtube.com

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The Ukrainian Review @theukrainianreview.bsky.social · 8d

🇮🇳🔄 An India-bound tanker filled with Russian crude reversed course and is now idling in the Baltic Sea, a sign of potential disruption in oil trade between the two countries after the US tightened sanctions on Moscow, - Bloomberg

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(Ben) 本记明 @ulyssecolonna.bsky.social · 8d

What would you say France’s mistakes were?

(Ben) 本记明 @ulyssecolonna.bsky.social · 9d

And all the “sources” I got were both highly believable and totally made up.

This is going to be a shit show.

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