Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 13h

I’m a cautious optimist by nature.

As bleak as things sometimes feel, and as hard as coordination can be, success begets success. More people speak up, more people stand up for democratic values, and it becomes a virtuous cycle.

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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 13h

Coordination is hard. Broad-based, pro-democracy coalitions are really hard.

Yet, I’ve still been deeply disappointed by civil society—especially CEOs who’ve stayed silent even as their core business are threatened.

But I’ve also been encouraged by the boldness of some local and state leaders.

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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 13h

But that focus obscures the most important story right now: the growing willingness of the Trump administration to use state power (the DOJ, ICE, the National Guard, and even the military) to target and silence political opponents

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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 13h

There’s been a lot of talk about political violence, whether left is more violent than right, and whether we’re at the start of a wave of left-wing violence.

www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

America’s New Age of Political Violence

What happens when the threat comes from both left and right.

www.foreignaffairs.com

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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 13h

Some thoughts on where we are right now and the state of US democracy.

Trump is both deeply unpopular right now—and yet more politically powerful than during his first term, thanks to a pliant Congress and Supreme Court. That’s an uncertain, and dangerous, place to be.

Approval rating of Trump according to the Economist —he’s at -15%.

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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 4d

My new op-ed with @lkfazio.bsky.social:

Trump sent a 'compact' to our universities. They should reject this devil's bargain.
Any institution that yields to these broad and intrusive demands would forever be subservient to the whims of the government.
www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...

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Xu Xu @xuxupolitics.bsky.social · 4d

Why do authoritarian states charge political opponents with non-political crimes? In our @thejop.bsky.social paper with Jennifer Pan & @yiqingxu.bsky.social, we examine how *Disguised Repression* undermines opponents’ moral authority and mobilization capacity. doi.org/10.1086/7342...

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Meredith Conroy @meredithconroy.bsky.social · 6d

Democrats and Republicans distrust mass media for different reasons. For the GOP, hating the media is an in-group identity signal. The media is part of "the establishment," so they hate them.

Still, the dip in younger Dems trust in media is important to watch, too.

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 6d

Really striking data point from @gelliottmorris.com on Substack

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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 9d

🚨 New Bright Line Watch report on state of US democracy
brightlinewatch.org/violence-red...

-Expert ratings ~= since April but ↓ substantially since January
-US now most closely resembles an illiberal democracy
-Partisan gap in democracy ratings highest since 2017

Full thread of results below

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Risa Brooks @risabrooks12.bsky.social · 10d

It's easy to see this speech as just weirdly performative, but there's a lot more—and a lot worse—going on here.

The meeting & speeches are part of a larger project aimed at promoting the military leadership’s partisan alignment with the administration.

How? 1/

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 10d

Hegseth: "If the words I'm speaking today are making your heart sink, they you should do the honorable thing and resign."

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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 12d

Kept thinking about the debate between Klein and Coates and wrote down some thoughts.

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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 13d

No one outside the U.S. is confused and no one here would be confused if they saw this happening in another country.

Bill Kristol @billkristolbulwark.bsky.social · 13d

Hegseth fires general officers and JAGs, cracks down on dissenting views in military, orders killing civilians at sea without legal rationale, calls generals to Quantico to demand loyalty.

Trump deploys troops to U.S. cities.

"What are Trump and Hegseth up to? It's a mystery!"

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tim frye @timfrye.bsky.social · 13d

So many echoes from this article for US politics....

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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 14d

"for now, we’re stuck in a ratchet, where violent losers copy one another, and their deeds become an excuse to oppress the rest of us."

Michelle Goldberg @michellegoldberg.bsky.social · 14d

www.nytimes.com/2025/09/26/o...

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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 15d

Two things are true:

1. Trump has amassed extraordinary power in the presidency—thanks to a compliant Congress and a pro-executive Supreme Court.

2. Trump is increasingly unpopular.

These twin dynamics will define U.S. politics through the 2026 midterms.

Buckle up.

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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 18d

L’shanah tova!

🍎 🍯

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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 20d

Just awful

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PBS News @pbsnews.org · 22d

“What we’re seeing is an unprecedented attempt to silence disfavored speech by the government,” said Brendan Nyhan, a political scientist at Dartmouth College. “Donald Trump is trying to dictate what Americans can say.” https://to.pbs.org/46AYg7U

Trump's moves against media outlets mirror authoritarian approaches to silencing dissent

Since taking office in January, President Donald Trump has waged an aggressive campaign against the media unlike any in modern U.S. history, making moves similar to those of authoritarian leaders that...

to.pbs.org

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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 24d

Watching too—Redford, Akroyd, Phoenix, Strathairn, McDonnell, Kingsley, and Earl Jones. The cast is 🔥

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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 24d

Two things to add to this:

1) I am much more concerned with party elites and leaders encouraging and stoking violence than shifts in the public from vaguely worded questions.

2) These public shifts in support for violence are almost always downstream of elite rhetoric and narratives.

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 24d

These estimates of public support for violence (from www.nytimes.com/2025/09/16/o...) are inflated - *much* higher than what we and others have found using question wording that reduces acquiescence bias: brightlinewatch.org/accelerated-... The vast majority of Americans reject political violence.

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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 24d

These estimates of public support for violence (from www.nytimes.com/2025/09/16/o...) are inflated - *much* higher than what we and others have found using question wording that reduces acquiescence bias: brightlinewatch.org/accelerated-... The vast majority of Americans reject political violence.

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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 26d

Really good points. I’m also curious how much of this stems from:

1) The long-running goal of the conservative movement to work the refs (journalists) via accusations of left-wing bias.

VS.

2) More recent polarization by education.

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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 26d

Thanks to the folks at APSA for organizing a great conference, and Vancouver for being a great host city!

cc @janzilinsky.bsky.social

Award from the ITP section for my paper with Jan Zilinsky

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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 27d

True! I just wanted to get a sense of the trends in assassinations over time.

But our gun ownership rate is total outlier. H/T @garciaponce.bsky.social

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimat...

Gun ownership firearms per hundred people. US by far has the most with 120.5 and is 2x the next country.

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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 28d

In contrast, President Trump has blamed the "radical left" for Kirk's assassination and vowed to "beat the hell out of them" (www.politico.com/news/2025/09...).

His supporters have taken note and have vowed revenge (www.reuters.com/world/us/rig...).

The U.S. is in a dangerous place.

Politico headline of Trump saying "beat the hell" out of the radical left

Reuters headline: right-wing anger surges as Kirk's killing fuels calls for vengeance.

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