Thomas Zeitzoff
@zeitzoff.bsky.social
Professor @au-spa.bsky.social
Pol Violence | Pol Psychology
New Book: “NO OPTION BUT SABOTAGE”
https://global.oup.com/academic/product/no-option-but-sabotage-9780197796849
1st Book: "Nasty Politics"
https://www.zeitzoff.com/book-project.html
Pol Violence | Pol Psychology
New Book: “NO OPTION BUT SABOTAGE”
https://global.oup.com/academic/product/no-option-but-sabotage-9780197796849
1st Book: "Nasty Politics"
https://www.zeitzoff.com/book-project.html
Pinned
Thomas Zeitzoff
@zeitzoff.bsky.social
· Jul 29
Thrilled to share the cover of my upcoming book, out February 2026 from @oxfordacademic.bsky.social
NO OPTION BUT SABOTAGE
The Radical Environmental Movement and the Climate Crisis
global.oup.com/academic/pro...
NO OPTION BUT SABOTAGE
The Radical Environmental Movement and the Climate Crisis
global.oup.com/academic/pro...
Every professor I know is struggling with AI in a different way. I found a few things that really helped this semester.
1) I banned cellphones and laptops in class— made a huge difference in attention and quality of discussions.
1) I banned cellphones and laptops in class— made a huge difference in attention and quality of discussions.
November 21, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Every professor I know is struggling with AI in a different way. I found a few things that really helped this semester.
1) I banned cellphones and laptops in class— made a huge difference in attention and quality of discussions.
1) I banned cellphones and laptops in class— made a huge difference in attention and quality of discussions.
Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff
This is not a peace deal and it’s not asking anything of the Russians. It’s just the US on behalf of the Russians pressuring Ukraine to surrender www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...
U.S. pushing Ukraine to sign peace deal by Thanksgiving or lose support
The U.S. is now sending “signals” that everything could be off the table if Kyiv does not quickly sign a proposal, which was drawn up by special envoy Witkoff.
www.washingtonpost.com
November 21, 2025 at 1:09 PM
This is not a peace deal and it’s not asking anything of the Russians. It’s just the US on behalf of the Russians pressuring Ukraine to surrender www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...
Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff
new paper by Sean Westwood:
With current technology, it is impossible to tell whether survey respondents are real or bots. Among other things, makes it easy for bad actors to manipulate outcomes. No good news here for the future of online-based survey research
With current technology, it is impossible to tell whether survey respondents are real or bots. Among other things, makes it easy for bad actors to manipulate outcomes. No good news here for the future of online-based survey research
November 18, 2025 at 7:16 PM
new paper by Sean Westwood:
With current technology, it is impossible to tell whether survey respondents are real or bots. Among other things, makes it easy for bad actors to manipulate outcomes. No good news here for the future of online-based survey research
With current technology, it is impossible to tell whether survey respondents are real or bots. Among other things, makes it easy for bad actors to manipulate outcomes. No good news here for the future of online-based survey research
Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff
In Mexico, the share of income captured by the 1% has declined noticeably in recent years. This shift toward lower income concentration—alongside poverty reduction—helps explain not only the popularity of AMLO and Sheinbaum, but also some of the ongoing political battles and sources of polarization.
November 16, 2025 at 6:50 PM
In Mexico, the share of income captured by the 1% has declined noticeably in recent years. This shift toward lower income concentration—alongside poverty reduction—helps explain not only the popularity of AMLO and Sheinbaum, but also some of the ongoing political battles and sources of polarization.
A few things are true at once:
1. Trump is deeply unpopular and increasingly seen as a lame duck. The economy is also looking shaky.
And the Epstein Files.
1. Trump is deeply unpopular and increasingly seen as a lame duck. The economy is also looking shaky.
And the Epstein Files.
November 14, 2025 at 8:40 PM
A few things are true at once:
1. Trump is deeply unpopular and increasingly seen as a lame duck. The economy is also looking shaky.
And the Epstein Files.
1. Trump is deeply unpopular and increasingly seen as a lame duck. The economy is also looking shaky.
And the Epstein Files.
Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff
Releasing 20,000+ pages of Epstein files related documents as .jpgs via a shared google drive owned by oversight.gop.119 is sorta wild, but also sort of exactly where we're at.
The drive: drive.google.com/drive/folder...
The drive: drive.google.com/drive/folder...
IMAGES - Google Drive
drive.google.com
November 12, 2025 at 6:36 PM
Releasing 20,000+ pages of Epstein files related documents as .jpgs via a shared google drive owned by oversight.gop.119 is sorta wild, but also sort of exactly where we're at.
The drive: drive.google.com/drive/folder...
The drive: drive.google.com/drive/folder...
A few observations based on this week's election results
1) Trump is unpopular and the elections were a rebuke to him and his unpopular policies.
1) Trump is unpopular and the elections were a rebuke to him and his unpopular policies.
November 7, 2025 at 6:16 PM
A few observations based on this week's election results
1) Trump is unpopular and the elections were a rebuke to him and his unpopular policies.
1) Trump is unpopular and the elections were a rebuke to him and his unpopular policies.
Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff
Cool new working paper on why and how cable news threw gasoline on the culture war fire. The culture war isn't optimal for electoral candidates, but it's optimal for cable news companies.
ungated: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/27v4x...
ungated: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/27v4x...
November 3, 2025 at 7:45 PM
Cool new working paper on why and how cable news threw gasoline on the culture war fire. The culture war isn't optimal for electoral candidates, but it's optimal for cable news companies.
ungated: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/27v4x...
ungated: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/27v4x...
Big night for Big Candy!
November 1, 2025 at 12:56 AM
Big night for Big Candy!
The two competing dynamics that will define Trump's second term:
1) He wields more unchecked power than his first term—and arguably than any other president in history.
2) He is deeply unpopular, and getting more so.
1) He wields more unchecked power than his first term—and arguably than any other president in history.
2) He is deeply unpopular, and getting more so.
October 31, 2025 at 2:28 PM
The two competing dynamics that will define Trump's second term:
1) He wields more unchecked power than his first term—and arguably than any other president in history.
2) He is deeply unpopular, and getting more so.
1) He wields more unchecked power than his first term—and arguably than any other president in history.
2) He is deeply unpopular, and getting more so.
Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff
An authoritarian...
stifles dissent/speech
persecutes opponents
bypasses legislature
uses military domestically
defies courts
declares false emergencies
vilifies groups
controls info/media
controls universities
creates cult of personality
uses power for profit
manipulates law to stay in power
stifles dissent/speech
persecutes opponents
bypasses legislature
uses military domestically
defies courts
declares false emergencies
vilifies groups
controls info/media
controls universities
creates cult of personality
uses power for profit
manipulates law to stay in power
Opinion | In Trump’s America, Are We Losing Our Democracy? (Gift Article)
Donald Trump has wielded power as no previous president has.
www.nytimes.com
October 31, 2025 at 2:13 PM
An authoritarian...
stifles dissent/speech
persecutes opponents
bypasses legislature
uses military domestically
defies courts
declares false emergencies
vilifies groups
controls info/media
controls universities
creates cult of personality
uses power for profit
manipulates law to stay in power
stifles dissent/speech
persecutes opponents
bypasses legislature
uses military domestically
defies courts
declares false emergencies
vilifies groups
controls info/media
controls universities
creates cult of personality
uses power for profit
manipulates law to stay in power
Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff
Sarkozy is going to jail but he’s not the first one. In our new dataset we track modern leaders who have been prosecuted by their own states. There are 215 of them. Turns out leader prosecution is a common & healthy practice in democracies. Full access link: foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/28/d...
Prosecuting the Powerful
Historical data shows putting leaders on trial is a healthy democratic practice.
foreignpolicy.com
October 28, 2025 at 4:42 PM
Sarkozy is going to jail but he’s not the first one. In our new dataset we track modern leaders who have been prosecuted by their own states. There are 215 of them. Turns out leader prosecution is a common & healthy practice in democracies. Full access link: foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/28/d...
Survey folks, what are people’s recent experiences with online panels in terms of:
1. Panel quality (bots/LLMs)?
2. Representativeness?
3. Cost + time to complete?
Planning a 700–800 US nat-rep pilot.
Best practices welcome!
1. Panel quality (bots/LLMs)?
2. Representativeness?
3. Cost + time to complete?
Planning a 700–800 US nat-rep pilot.
Best practices welcome!
October 28, 2025 at 2:35 PM
Survey folks, what are people’s recent experiences with online panels in terms of:
1. Panel quality (bots/LLMs)?
2. Representativeness?
3. Cost + time to complete?
Planning a 700–800 US nat-rep pilot.
Best practices welcome!
1. Panel quality (bots/LLMs)?
2. Representativeness?
3. Cost + time to complete?
Planning a 700–800 US nat-rep pilot.
Best practices welcome!
Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff
My main takeaway on the “moderation” debate is that Democrats would be better served by other debates besides left-right positioning, like how to develop new valence issues (corruption!) as wedge issues, and how to get attention for their policy proposals in the first place
October 28, 2025 at 1:16 AM
My main takeaway on the “moderation” debate is that Democrats would be better served by other debates besides left-right positioning, like how to develop new valence issues (corruption!) as wedge issues, and how to get attention for their policy proposals in the first place
Chili night in the DMV
October 26, 2025 at 10:58 PM
Chili night in the DMV
Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff
New paper: LLMs are increasingly used to label data in political science. But how reliable are these annotations, and what are the consequences for scientific findings? What are best practices? Some new findings from a large empirical evaluation.
Paper: eddieyang.net/research/llm_annotation.pdf
Paper: eddieyang.net/research/llm_annotation.pdf
October 20, 2025 at 1:57 PM
New paper: LLMs are increasingly used to label data in political science. But how reliable are these annotations, and what are the consequences for scientific findings? What are best practices? Some new findings from a large empirical evaluation.
Paper: eddieyang.net/research/llm_annotation.pdf
Paper: eddieyang.net/research/llm_annotation.pdf
Suburban Maryland—great vibes!
October 18, 2025 at 5:44 PM
Suburban Maryland—great vibes!
Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff
One piece of evidence in favor of Thomas’s argument is that every single other populist movement in human history emerged without social media
I think there’s a comfort in blaming our current politics on social media.
When I think a boring but more accurate story is that plutocratic tech elites and right-wingers *made a lot of choices*.
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/o...
When I think a boring but more accurate story is that plutocratic tech elites and right-wingers *made a lot of choices*.
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/o...
October 14, 2025 at 11:17 PM
One piece of evidence in favor of Thomas’s argument is that every single other populist movement in human history emerged without social media
I think there’s a comfort in blaming our current politics on social media.
When I think a boring but more accurate story is that plutocratic tech elites and right-wingers *made a lot of choices*.
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/o...
When I think a boring but more accurate story is that plutocratic tech elites and right-wingers *made a lot of choices*.
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/o...
October 14, 2025 at 11:11 PM
I think there’s a comfort in blaming our current politics on social media.
When I think a boring but more accurate story is that plutocratic tech elites and right-wingers *made a lot of choices*.
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/o...
When I think a boring but more accurate story is that plutocratic tech elites and right-wingers *made a lot of choices*.
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/o...
Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff
I am curious what would happen if Dems ran on a plank of creating an anti-corruption agency with stronger independence than the Fed.
I think it would be highly successful because it would show "we will tie our own hands on this".
I think it would be highly successful because it would show "we will tie our own hands on this".
One lesson for pro-democracy advocates currently sitting in opposition around the world -- hammer incumbents on corruption and link strengthening liberal democracy (aka accountability) to anti-corruption efforts.
This is what I pay the New York Times for: www.nytimes.com/2025/10/12/w...
[Gift link]
[Gift link]
October 13, 2025 at 3:19 PM
I am curious what would happen if Dems ran on a plank of creating an anti-corruption agency with stronger independence than the Fed.
I think it would be highly successful because it would show "we will tie our own hands on this".
I think it would be highly successful because it would show "we will tie our own hands on this".
Some thoughts on where we are right now and the state of US democracy.
Trump is both deeply unpopular right now—and yet more politically powerful than during his first term, thanks to a pliant Congress and Supreme Court. That’s an uncertain, and dangerous, place to be.
Trump is both deeply unpopular right now—and yet more politically powerful than during his first term, thanks to a pliant Congress and Supreme Court. That’s an uncertain, and dangerous, place to be.
October 10, 2025 at 8:49 PM
Some thoughts on where we are right now and the state of US democracy.
Trump is both deeply unpopular right now—and yet more politically powerful than during his first term, thanks to a pliant Congress and Supreme Court. That’s an uncertain, and dangerous, place to be.
Trump is both deeply unpopular right now—and yet more politically powerful than during his first term, thanks to a pliant Congress and Supreme Court. That’s an uncertain, and dangerous, place to be.
Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff
My new op-ed with @lkfazio.bsky.social:
Trump sent a 'compact' to our universities. They should reject this devil's bargain.
Any institution that yields to these broad and intrusive demands would forever be subservient to the whims of the government.
www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...
Trump sent a 'compact' to our universities. They should reject this devil's bargain.
Any institution that yields to these broad and intrusive demands would forever be subservient to the whims of the government.
www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...
October 6, 2025 at 11:48 PM
My new op-ed with @lkfazio.bsky.social:
Trump sent a 'compact' to our universities. They should reject this devil's bargain.
Any institution that yields to these broad and intrusive demands would forever be subservient to the whims of the government.
www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...
Trump sent a 'compact' to our universities. They should reject this devil's bargain.
Any institution that yields to these broad and intrusive demands would forever be subservient to the whims of the government.
www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...
Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff
Why do authoritarian states charge political opponents with non-political crimes? In our @thejop.bsky.social paper with Jennifer Pan & @yiqingxu.bsky.social, we examine how *Disguised Repression* undermines opponents’ moral authority and mobilization capacity. doi.org/10.1086/7342...
October 6, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Why do authoritarian states charge political opponents with non-political crimes? In our @thejop.bsky.social paper with Jennifer Pan & @yiqingxu.bsky.social, we examine how *Disguised Repression* undermines opponents’ moral authority and mobilization capacity. doi.org/10.1086/7342...
Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff
Democrats and Republicans distrust mass media for different reasons. For the GOP, hating the media is an in-group identity signal. The media is part of "the establishment," so they hate them.
Still, the dip in younger Dems trust in media is important to watch, too.
Still, the dip in younger Dems trust in media is important to watch, too.
Really striking data point from @gelliottmorris.com on Substack
October 4, 2025 at 6:40 PM
Democrats and Republicans distrust mass media for different reasons. For the GOP, hating the media is an in-group identity signal. The media is part of "the establishment," so they hate them.
Still, the dip in younger Dems trust in media is important to watch, too.
Still, the dip in younger Dems trust in media is important to watch, too.
Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff
🚨 New Bright Line Watch report on state of US democracy
brightlinewatch.org/violence-red...
-Expert ratings ~= since April but ↓ substantially since January
-US now most closely resembles an illiberal democracy
-Partisan gap in democracy ratings highest since 2017
Full thread of results below
brightlinewatch.org/violence-red...
-Expert ratings ~= since April but ↓ substantially since January
-US now most closely resembles an illiberal democracy
-Partisan gap in democracy ratings highest since 2017
Full thread of results below
October 1, 2025 at 2:10 PM
🚨 New Bright Line Watch report on state of US democracy
brightlinewatch.org/violence-red...
-Expert ratings ~= since April but ↓ substantially since January
-US now most closely resembles an illiberal democracy
-Partisan gap in democracy ratings highest since 2017
Full thread of results below
brightlinewatch.org/violence-red...
-Expert ratings ~= since April but ↓ substantially since January
-US now most closely resembles an illiberal democracy
-Partisan gap in democracy ratings highest since 2017
Full thread of results below