Thomas Zeitzoff
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zeitzoff.bsky.social
Thomas Zeitzoff
@zeitzoff.bsky.social
9.6K followers 2.8K following 340 posts
Professor @au-spa.bsky.social

Pol Violence | Pol Psychology

New Book: “NO OPTION BUT SABOTAGE”

https://global.oup.com/academic/product/no-option-but-sabotage-9780197796849

1st Book: "Nasty Politics"

https://www.zeitzoff.com/book-project.html
Posts Replies Media Videos
Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff
garciaponce.bsky.social
Looking forward to this book talk on Friday —really important work by @zeitzoff.bsky.social on the growing threat of climate change and the ways activists are responding to it.
zeitzoff.bsky.social Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 2h
I’ll be doing a book talk with @jjgreenjr.bsky.social
for my new book:

*No Option But Sabotage*

at Politics and Prose (The Wharf) this Friday, 1/30.

We'll be discussing:

-the climate crisis
-social movement
-protest tactics
-and responses to repression

politics-prose.com/thomas-zeitz...
Flyer for the Wharf: Thomas Zeitzoff — No Option But Sabotage: The Radical Environmental Movement and the Climate Crisis -with JJ Green — at The Wharf Book cover: "No Option But Sabotage"
January 28, 2026 at 5:15 PM
zeitzoff.bsky.social
I’ll be doing a book talk with @jjgreenjr.bsky.social
for my new book:

*No Option But Sabotage*

at Politics and Prose (The Wharf) this Friday, 1/30.

We'll be discussing:

-the climate crisis
-social movement
-protest tactics
-and responses to repression

politics-prose.com/thomas-zeitz...
Flyer for the Wharf: Thomas Zeitzoff — No Option But Sabotage: The Radical Environmental Movement and the Climate Crisis -with JJ Green — at The Wharf Book cover: "No Option But Sabotage"
January 28, 2026 at 3:55 PM
Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff
owasow.bsky.social
“What we are seeing is the weakness of strong states. Regimes that rely on repression face a challenge: The more force they deploy, the more they risk exposing their own brutality to politically persuadable observers. Overreach doesn’t just project strength; it also undermines legitimacy.” Gift link
Opinion | We’re Seeing the Weakness of a Strong State
www.nytimes.com
January 28, 2026 at 1:55 PM
Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff
madalina.bsky.social
What motivates people to engage in climate advocacy?

In a new PNAS Nexus megastudy [https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgaf400] led by @dgoldwert.bsky.social we tested 17 theoretical interventions on a large US sample (N=31,324) to increase public, political, and financial climate advocacy.

1/5
January 27, 2026 at 6:23 PM
zeitzoff.bsky.social
On Saturday, 1/24, mere hours after Alex Pretti was murdered by federal agents, the White House screened the “Melania” documentary for tech billionaires & CEOs.

It was absurd. But also revealing. The authoritarian threat in the U.S. is deeply intertwined with the power of tech billionaires.

-🧵-
Headline: ‘Melania’ Doc Screens at White House After Alex Pretti Was Shot to Death by ICE in Minneapolis Saturday night’s attendees included President Donald Trump, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy, Tim Cook, Mike Tyson, Ellen von Unwerth and disgraced director Brett Ratner JD Knapp The Wrap
January 26, 2026 at 9:50 PM
Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff
brendannyhan.bsky.social
Even fewer people believe administration lies the second time
January 25, 2026 at 10:42 PM
Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff
jwmueller-pu.bsky.social
Germany's paper of record (not exactly a paragon of progressiveness) comes out in favor of boycotting the World Cup.
Fußball-WM 2026: Sollte der DFB über einen Boykott nachdenken?
Die Fußballwelt als Staffage: An Donald Trumps Politik wird auch die Weltmeisterschaft nichts ändern. Die Positionierung des DFB scheint klar.
www.faz.net
January 25, 2026 at 2:11 PM
zeitzoff.bsky.social
When you explain it plainly, it’s hard not to see where we are as a country.
An aging, increasingly unpopular leader with autocratic impulses sends masked agents into opposition areas to provoke unrest. Those agents shoot an unarmed civilian observer after disarming him, obstruct evidence collection, and the government then lies about it publicly.
January 25, 2026 at 6:31 PM
zeitzoff.bsky.social
This is a key point and problem for the opposition.

Elites, even those directly harmed, haven’t pushed back enough against Trump and his policies.
jakemgrumbach.bsky.social Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 4d
Trump has way more power over other elites than you'd expect given his unpopularity. The possible explanations are

ideology (they agree with him)

bad information (they believe Trump is popular or libs/urbanites don't count)

intimidation (threat of institutional punishment or violence)
January 23, 2026 at 10:39 PM
Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff
jjgreenjr.bsky.social
That's right! It's my pleasure to join Thomas for a robust discussion of his great, new book! Joins us there!
zeitzoff.bsky.social Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 5d
I’m excited to share that I’ll be doing a book talk and launch with @jjgreenjr.bsky.social for my new book:

*No Option But Sabotage*

at Politics and Prose (The Wharf) next Friday, 1/30.

politics-prose.com/thomas-zeitz...
Screenshot of Thomas Zeitzoff — No Option But Sabotage: The Radical Environmental Movement and the Climate Crisis -with JJ Green — at The Wharf. No Option But Sabotage Cover
January 23, 2026 at 7:03 PM
zeitzoff.bsky.social
I’m excited to share that I’ll be doing a book talk and launch with @jjgreenjr.bsky.social for my new book:

*No Option But Sabotage*

at Politics and Prose (The Wharf) next Friday, 1/30.

politics-prose.com/thomas-zeitz...
Screenshot of Thomas Zeitzoff — No Option But Sabotage: The Radical Environmental Movement and the Climate Crisis -with JJ Green — at The Wharf. No Option But Sabotage Cover
January 23, 2026 at 4:44 PM
Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff
tompepinsky.com
Claude Code is an amazing tool for social science researchers. It does not think and it does not interpret properly, but it generates and executes code with a speed and accuracy that I could never have anticipated.
Agentic AI and Social Science Research Practice
I’ve been exploring AI tools of various forms for more than a year now, mostly from a critical perspective of identifying things that they cannot do (such as draw maps), but also so that I can unde…
tompepinsky.com
January 23, 2026 at 12:47 PM
zeitzoff.bsky.social
Lots of talk recently about Trump, the Transatlantic alliance, and whether a U.S.–EU/NATO rift was “inevitable" (structural).

My take: politics is choices under constraints. And in Trump’s II, we’re watching Trump and his people make *a lot of choices.*
January 21, 2026 at 10:25 PM
zeitzoff.bsky.social
I wrote this piece with @jkertzer.bsky.social nearly nine years ago on what to expect from Trump's foreign policy.

It still holds up.

If anything, the underlying pathologies have intensified, and the guardrails are gone.

politicalviolenceataglance.org/2017/02/13/b...
Picture of Trump, and title "Beyond Narcissism: What Political Psychology Tells Us About Foreign Policy Under Trump" First, at 70 years old, Trump is the oldest US president ever to take office. Research by Michael Horowitz, Rose McDermott, and Allan C. Stam suggests that older leaders, particularly in democracies, are at a heightened risk of initiating, and escalating, conflict. The exact mechanisms behind this relationship are subject to debate, but older leaders may have shorter term horizons, making them more likely to take risks in order to make their mark. Second, although Trump has stated that the military boarding school he attended gave him “more training militarily than a lot of the guys who go into the military,” he has no formal military experience. Recent scholarship by Michael Horowitz, Allan Stam, and Cali Ellis suggest that leaders at the highest risk of initiating conflicts are those that have served in the military, but never saw combat, since combat experience makes leaders “more knowledgeable about the risks and consequences” of the use of force. Third, one of Trump’s most frequently brandished credentials on the campaign trail was his experience as a business leader. Ongoing research by Matthew Fuhrmann finds that leaders with business backgrounds are more likely to free-ride in alliances. Fourth, although there have been debates about the relationship between gender and conflict propensity, there is little systematic evidence to suggest that male leaders are more conflict-prone than female leaders, such that Trump’s gender offers little indication of his potential foreign policy behavior. Much of a President-elect’s appeal lies in brash style, and self-professed skill and acumen as a negotiator able to “get things done.” Political psychologists have studied the individual-level determinants of negotiation success, and the findings have important implications for Trump’s negotiating prowess. In a forthcoming article by Brian Rathbun, Joshua Kertzer, and Mark Paradis in International Organization, bargaining skill is argued to be a product of two negotiator-level characteristics. The first is high epistemic motivation: the extent to which individuals are motivated to carefully consider and think through different options. The second is a proself social value orientation: the extent to which individuals focus on gains for themselves rather than on shared gains with the other side. If prosocials are preoccupied with fairness, proselfs focus instead on relative and absolute gains. Individuals who are high-cognition proselfs are good negotiators resembling the ideal-typical notion of “homo economicus”. When in a position of strength, they exploit their bargaining leverage, but in a position of weakness, they understand the importance of making concessions in order to secure a deal. Low-cognition proselfs, however, are bad negotiators, overplaying weak hands, and more likely to experience bargaining failures and scuttle mutually beneficial deals that were otherwise achievable. Where does Trump fit into this framework? In campaign speeches, Trump promised to put America first in terms of foreign policy, and strongly suggests he sees the world of international relations as zero-sum — if other countries are doing well, America must be losing. This zero-sum worldview, with its focus on relative gains, suggests a proself value orientation. Furthermore, anecdotes from past business associates, biographers, and campaign staffers suggest that Trump makes quick decisions, shies away from deep deliberation, and tends to lump unrelated issues together. His low levels of intellectual curiosity – and preference for following his gut and making spur of the moment decisions – suggests someone low in epistemic motivation. Indeed, this paucity of epistemic motivation is a hallmark of Trump’s style, as well as a potential source of his appeal: in one analysis of polling data from the 2016 American National Election Survey, for example, even controlling for partisanship, political ideology, age, education, and gender, a major predictor of support for Trump was respondents’ own low levels of epistemic motivation. If Trump is indeed a low-cognition proself, he is likely to be less skilled of a negotiator than one might expect from the author of The Art of the Deal.
January 20, 2026 at 9:51 PM
Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff
professormusgrave.bsky.social
It is even worse than it looks
The Old World Order is Dead
Unipolarity was given, not taken
open.substack.com
January 20, 2026 at 5:19 PM
Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff
tompepinsky.com
This is what clown time in Washington has produced. I agree with this read.

Americans need to get ready for a world in which we are poorer, more isolated, and weaker than in any of our lives. And we need to think seriously about how to repair relations with our closest allies. The need is urgent.
maxbergmann.bsky.social Max Bergmann @maxbergmann.bsky.social · 10d
Feels like something cracked today in the transatlantic alliance. Europeans have been swallowing their pride, bitting their tongues, and bending the knee. That strategy may have bought them time but it has now clearly failed. It also had a major cost - it has made the WH think Europe will cave. 1/
January 18, 2026 at 2:03 PM
zeitzoff.bsky.social
This 2021 piece by Rumer and @andrewsweiss.bsky.social on "Ukraine: Putin’s Unfinished Business" is so eerily prescient.

You can literally substitute Trump for Putin and Greenland for Ukraine and the logic is largely the same.

carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
Carnegie article: Ukraine: Putin’s Unfinished Business Putin has stepped up his rhetoric about Ukraine throughout 2021. With new moves on the Russian-Ukrainian border, the saber-rattling has to be taken seriously. Putin has also stepped up his rhetoric about Ukraine in multiple public appearances during 2021. He has hinted broadly that his patience with Kyiv is running out. A careful review of the Russian leader’s record with respect to Ukraine suggests that almost all of the requisite components and justifications for military intervention are either in—or moving into—place. Both the near- and long-term indicators suggest that Kyiv and Washington have good reasons to worry. Thinking About the Unthinkable It would be a risky proposition to assume that Putin has made his peace with the status quo or that he is unwilling to push the envelope once again over Ukraine. The spring 2021 war scare and the 2018 Kerch Strait incident both exposed the limits of Western support for Ukraine and served as vivid illustrations of the fact that neither NATO as a whole, nor the United States or any other individual member of the alliance, is prepared to risk war with Russia over Ukraine.
January 15, 2026 at 2:47 AM
Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff
brendannyhan.bsky.social
"It is exceedingly rare, even in investigations of classified disclosures, for federal agents to search a reporter’s home."
January 14, 2026 at 2:13 PM
zeitzoff.bsky.social
The dynamic I'd guess we're likely to see going forward:

Trump gets less popular → stops trying to persuade

More heavy-handed repression at home + strikes abroad

More protests → more crackdowns → even less popularity

Key is elite defection: can opposition peel off business and other elites?
January 13, 2026 at 10:33 PM
Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff
brendannyhan.bsky.social
What is happening in America right now. The arbitrary power of a tyrant deployed against his political enemies.
January 13, 2026 at 7:33 PM
Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff
seva.bsky.social
I just finished a three-year term as an editor at an international relations journal. I began at the start of the LLM era but ended right in the middle of it. Our volume of submissions tripled and our desk reject rate rose to 75%. I have some thoughts.
open.substack.com/pub/hegemon/...
The Age of Academic Slop is Upon Us
what happens when AI automates "normal science"?
open.substack.com
January 13, 2026 at 3:38 PM
Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff
kwcollins.bsky.social
We need less research framing the problem facing our country as "polarization" and more research framing the problem as "anti-democratic radicalization".
January 12, 2026 at 7:26 PM
Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff
hakeemjefferson.bsky.social
This beautifully written piece by my pal @adambonica.bsky.social is worth your time today.

A bit of light amid the darkness.

open.substack.com/pub/data4dem...
The Wall Looks Permanent Until It Falls
On the optimism of preparation in a time of democratic decay.
open.substack.com
January 11, 2026 at 7:02 PM
Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff
jayvanbavel.bsky.social
An intervention found that blocking internet access on smartphones for 2 weeks improved mental health, subjective well-being, and objectively measured ability to sustain attention; 91% of participants improved on at least one of these outcomes.
academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/ar...
January 8, 2026 at 9:11 PM
zeitzoff.bsky.social
There’s a lot of talk today about violent rhetoric—who’s responsible, and what leads to political violence.

As someone who wrote a book on violent rhetoric, here’s what we actually know:
Politico article about Tom Homan, blaming protesters and Minneapolis local leaders for violent rhetoric. Cover of my book: Nasty Politics
January 11, 2026 at 5:56 PM