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𝘎𝘰𝘥 𝘏𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘴 𝘍𝘭𝘢𝘨𝘴 @bheanilla.bsky.social · 22m

My hot take is Europe should get better at stopping sabotage and cyber attacks etc but should remain very reluctant to shoot down fighter jets and big drones unless absolutely necessary.

The Russian propaganda boon of “NATO kills Russian pilot!” vastly outweighs any benefit to Europe imo.

The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 4h

⚡️ NATO reportedly weighs stronger military response to Russian provocations.

According to four NATO officials, the goal is to raise the cost of Moscow's gray-zone operations and strengthen deterrence following a series of incursions by Russian drones and aircraft, the Financial Times reported.

NATO reportedly weighs stronger military response to Russian provocations

According to four NATO officials, the goal is to raise the cost of Moscow's gray-zone operations and strengthen deterrence following a series of incursions by Russian drones and aircraft, the Financia...

kyivindependent.com

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Kraut @derparrot.bsky.social · 33m

The Turkish Islamist movement split around his authoritarianism. Erdoğan comes out of a movement of Islamists who embraced democracy, and wanted to shape a new conservative and democratic form of Islamist politics. But since the 2010s Erdoğan has turned on all his old friends and their ideas.

JoeA64 @joea64.bsky.social · 38m

I will admit that for years, I was highly suspicious of him as promoting Islamism in Turkey and elsewhere. I will note, though, that it's been a very long time since anyone seriously claimed he was a hardline Islamist. .

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Kraut @derparrot.bsky.social · 39m

Erdoğan is one of those politicians who succeeded because everyone underestimated him. The Turkish opposition thought he was a conman from the Istanbul slums. Russia thought he was some backward primitive. The West thought he was a dumb Islamist jokel. And he played that as a card against them all.

JoeA64 @joea64.bsky.social · 47m

You can say a lot of things about Erdogan, but in all sad sober earnest, nobody has EVER called him naive. He may be one of the smartest people alive today, geopolitically speaking.

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Kraut @derparrot.bsky.social · 39m

Russia's criminal war really accelerated the European energy transition away from fossil fuels. Only wish we had done so earlier when Russia invaded Crimea in 2014. Either way, this is one of the few silver linings in all of this.

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NPR @npr.org · 2h

For the first time on record, renewable energy generated more electricity for the planet than coal, a new report says. n.pr/47hcegr

Renewable energy outpaces coal for electricity generation in historic first, report says

For the first time on record, renewable energy generated more electricity for the planet than coal, a new report says.

n.pr

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 11h

NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin remains committed to his theory of victory, which holds that Russia can outlast the West and Ukraine in a war of attrition, and his demand for Ukraine’s full capitulation. (1/

Read the full update: isw.pub/UkrWar100825

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Kraut @derparrot.bsky.social · 1h

Erdoğan is fine with Armenia moving more and more into the West, as long as it no longer is under Russian influence.

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Kraut @derparrot.bsky.social · 1h

We will soon probably have to make the decision whether to negotiate with a weak Russia, or kick them while they are down. I personally would prefer a good kicking.

Sven-Erik Volberg @volberg.bsky.social · 1d

Hmm. The Russia–Ukraine war has entered a new phase
Recent policy choices by America, EU and CN, and domestic economic strains, are reshaping Russia’s calculus. Since time may no longer be on its side, it is challenging Western resolve in more risky and aggressive ways.

www.iiss.org/online-analy...

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Sven-Erik Volberg @volberg.bsky.social · 1d

Hmm. The Russia–Ukraine war has entered a new phase
Recent policy choices by America, EU and CN, and domestic economic strains, are reshaping Russia’s calculus. Since time may no longer be on its side, it is challenging Western resolve in more risky and aggressive ways.

www.iiss.org/online-analy...

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Kraut @derparrot.bsky.social · 1h

He drove Russian influence out of the Middle East. He is driving them out of the South-Caucasus. He pulled Azerbaijan, Syria, and West-Libya into a new Turkish sphere of influence. He extended Turkish influence into the Horn of Africa. He only failed in expanding Turkish influence over Egypt.

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Kraut @derparrot.bsky.social · 1h

Erdoğan is a horrible autocrat who is doing enormous damage to the Turkish republic. But I do believe we will remember him almost like the Bismarck of our time. He pretty much made Turkey a regional power again.

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Kraut @derparrot.bsky.social · 1h

I think it's a combination of things. The oil petrol shortages in a country whose entire economy is built on hydrocarbons. Footage of soldiers using horses for logistics. The fact that a self-declared "superpower" has been at this for 4 years. Russia just looks weak.

Captain Zeus 🇺🇦🇬🇧 @cptnzeus.bsky.social · 1h

Not a military or social expert, but could daily videos of first-person annihilating russians dressed in uniforms, that look as battered, as if they were worn by 5 generations, influence our global perception of russians as this undefeatable force?

Kraut @derparrot.bsky.social · 1h

I see less and less of the usual "Russia can't be defeated" narrative by the type of people who usually spread and repeat it. Russia's weakness has been far too obvious in the past few weeks.

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Kraut @derparrot.bsky.social · 1h

Azerbaijan escaping a Russian sphere of influence was largely Erdoğan's doing and success. He must be very happy. He achieved his strategic goal of driving Russian influence out of the Middle East. And now he is one Georgian revolution away from removing Russian influence from the Caucasus.

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Kraut @derparrot.bsky.social · 1h

We already know that Czech arms will continue being shipped to Ukraine. Because it's good for the Czech economy to take European money and employ people to make munitions.

leonardbloom.bsky.social @leonardbloom.bsky.social · 1h

Even the Czech elections didn't dampen your mood?

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Kraut @derparrot.bsky.social · 1h

I see less and less of the usual "Russia can't be defeated" narrative by the type of people who usually spread and repeat it. Russia's weakness has been far too obvious in the past few weeks.

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Kraut @derparrot.bsky.social · 1h

The last few weeks have delivered one piece of bad news after another for Russia. I am getting optimistic again. Maybe we are getting to a turning point.

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Kraut @derparrot.bsky.social · 1h

Pretty clear Azerbaijan is not going to get bullied or baited back into being a Russian satellite state again. That meeting Aliyev and Putin had today was frosty.

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Kraut @derparrot.bsky.social · 14h

He won't get a Nobel Peace Prize. The war is not over. This is a ceasefire, not a peace agreement. We are lightyears away from a lasting peace in the middle east.

Kwad_rat @kwadrat.bsky.social · 14h

If the annoying orange gets his dreams Nobel for peace it will be the biggest joke.

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Kraut @derparrot.bsky.social · 14h

What exactly did this mass slaughter achieve in the end?

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Kraut @derparrot.bsky.social · 14h

yeah.

Jay Dee @jdmeeler.bsky.social · 14h

Is that good?

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Kraut @derparrot.bsky.social · 16h

Oh shit. Hamas agreed to the ceasefire plan?

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NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 18h

The Czech Republic plans to transfer 30 modernized T-72M4CZ tanks to Ukraine, Radio Prague International reports. Chief of the Czech General Staff Karel Řehka will recommend that the government hand over the tanks free of charge once repairs are completed.

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Beefeater Fella @beefeaterfella.bsky.social · 1d

🇧🇾 In September, Belarus increased gasoline exports to the Russian Federation by 4 times, due to fuel shortages amid attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, - Reuters

1/2

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 1d

NEW: The Kremlin continues its reflexive control campaign aimed at preventing the US from selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. 🧵(1/6) isw.pub/UkrWar100725

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Jean-Marc Liotier @liotier.bsky.social · 2d

This has to be the foundational requirement: Russia shall remain a pariah until they evacuate Ukraine. Then we'll talk.

Kraut @derparrot.bsky.social · 2d

It would be ideal if E.U leaders could agree on terms of ending this war. For one, we should all agree that no annexed territory should be recognised.

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