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Reposted by Nick Diamond

Ricard Solé @ricardsole.bsky.social · Aug 11

Do ant colonies work like liquid brains? Check this great paper in @pnas.org led by @ceabcsic.bsky.social Pol Fernandez and F.Bartumeus that shows how to explain collective foraging by modelling ants as neural agents @jordipinero.bsky.social @frazambelli.bsky.social www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

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Reposted by Nick Diamond

Iva Brunec @ivabrunec.bsky.social · Apr 2

Day 2 of #30DayChartChallenge: Slope.
Canadians spent a *lot* more time alone in 2022 compared to 2005. But that comparison is especially stark for young Canadians.

Code: github.com/ivabrunec/30...

Data visualization depicting a stark increase in self-reported time spent alone in the canadian time use survey from 2005 to 2022. Density plot below depicts two distributions with very different peaks.

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Reposted by Nick Diamond

Brent Toderian @brenttoderian.bsky.social · Mar 25

Half of business owners on this Toronto street estimated that more than 25% of their customers arrived by car.

In fact, it was 4%.

And the % of customers who who walked or cycled? 72%.

Retailers routinely overestimate the # of “car customers.” Via @carltonreid.com www.forbes.com/sites/carlto...

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Nick Diamond @diamondn.bsky.social · Mar 13

Good q! We didn't measure that, but would love to.

Anyhow - you might expect emotion to enhance memory for the features of the artworks themselves (some sleep/consolidation theories predict this). Yet instead it was their order - unrelated to emotional content - that stuck, overnight and beyond.

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Reposted by Nick Diamond

Stephanie Simpson @stefsimpson.bsky.social · Mar 12

Check out this brief review of our work by Jessica Palmieri and @mschoenauer.bsky.social

They do an excellent job of summarizing the main findings for a broader audience!

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Sleep studies enter the real world - Nature Human Behaviour

Memory for details fades over time, yet retaining the spatiotemporal associations inherent to our individual experiences may be adaptively relevant. Using an art tour as an experimental setting, Diamo...

www.nature.com

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Reposted by Nick Diamond

Andrew Heiss @andrew.heiss.phd · Mar 12

New preprint! A general overview of stats in public policy research with this (oversimplified but still helpful) separation of methods into description, explanation, and prediction #policysky

HTML/PDF: stats.andrewheiss.com/snoopy-spring/
SocArXiv: doi.org/10.31235/osf...

This essay provides an overview of statistical methods in public policy, focused primarily on the United States. I trace the historical development of quantitative approaches in policy research, from early ad hoc applications through the 19th and early 20th centuries, to the full institutionalization of statistical analysis in federal, state, local, and nonprofit agencies by the late 20th century. I then outline three core methodological approaches to policy-centered statistical research across social science disciplines: description, explanation, and prediction, framing each in terms of the focus of the analysis. In descriptive work, researchers explore what exists and examine any variable of interest to understand their different distributions and relationships. In explanatory work, researchers ask why does it exist and how can it be influenced. The focus of the analysis is on explanatory variables (X) to either (1) accurately estimate their relationship with an outcome variable (Y), or (2) causally attribute the effect of specific explanatory variables on outcomes. In predictive work, researchers as what will happen next and focus on the outcome variable (Y) and on generating accurate forecasts, classifications, and predictions from new data. For each approach, I examine key techniques, their applications in policy contexts, and important methodological considerations. I then consider critical perspectives on quantitative policy analysis framed around issues related to a three-part “data imperative” where governments are driven to count, gather, and learn from data. Each of these imperatives entail substantial issues related to privacy, accountability, democratic participation, and epistemic inequalities—issues at odds with public sector values of transparency and openness. I conclude by identifying some emerging trends in public sector-focused data science, inclusive ethical guidelines, open research practices, and future directions for the field.

Description Explanation Prediction
General question What exists? Why does it exist? How can it be influenced? What will happen next?
Focus of analysis Focus is on any variable—understanding different variables and their distributions and relationships Focus is on X —understanding the relationship between X and Y, often with an emphasis on causality Focus is on Y —forecasting or estimating the value of Y based on X, often without concern for causal mechanisms
Names for variable of interest — Explanatory variable
Independent variable
Predictor variable
Covariate Outcome variable
Dependent variable
Response variable
Goal of analysis Summarize and explore data to identify patterns, trends, and relationships Estimation: Test hypotheses or theories and make inferences about the relationship between one or more X variables and Y

Causal attribution: A special form of estimating—make inferences about the causal relationship between a single X of interest and Y through credible causal assumptions and identification strategies Generate accurate predictions; maximize the amount of explainable variation in Y while minimizing prediction error
Evaluation criteria — Confidence/credible intervals, coefficient significance, effect sizes, and theoretical consistency Metrics like root mean square error (RMSE) and R^2; out-of-sample performance
Typical approaches Univariate summary statistics like the mean, median, variance, and standard deviation; multivariate summary statistics like correlations and cross-tabulations t-tests, proportion tests, multivariate regression models; for causal attribution, careful identification through experiments, quasi-experiments, and other methods with observational data Multivariate regression models; more complex black-box approaches like machine learning and ensemble models

Table of contents
Introduction
Brief history of statistics in public policy
Core methodological approaches
Description
Explanation
Prediction
The pitfalls of counting, gathering, and learning from public data
Future directions
References

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Nick Diamond @diamondn.bsky.social · Mar 12

See a nice commentary here (thanks to @mschoenauer.bsky.social)

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Sleep studies enter the real world - Nature Human Behaviour

Memory for details fades over time, yet retaining the spatiotemporal associations inherent to our individual experiences may be adaptively relevant. Using an art tour as an experimental setting, Diamo...

www.nature.com

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Nick Diamond @diamondn.bsky.social · Mar 12

Excited to see this big collaborative project out in the world @naturehumbehav.bsky.social !

Sleep actively enhances memory for the temporal sequence - but not sensory details - of our real-life experiences, even months-to-years later. 🧠 oscillations matter.

Original 🧵: bsky.app/profile/diam...

Brian Levine @brianlevine.bsky.social · Mar 12

Thrilled to see this paper out in @naturehumbehav.bsky.social after years of work by Drs. @diamondn.bsky.social and @stefsimpson.bsky.social, with Drs. Stuart Fogel, Daniel Baena, and Brian J Murray!

@baycrestfoundation.bsky.social

Nature Human Behaviour @nathumbehav.nature.com · Mar 11

@diamondn.bsky.social et al. find that sleep enhances memory for the order of events from an art tour, but not the details of the events. The sleep-related advantage for sequences persists for over a year. @brianlevine.bsky.social
www.nature.com/articles/s41...

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Reposted by Nick Diamond

Nature Human Behaviour @nathumbehav.nature.com · Mar 11

@diamondn.bsky.social et al. find that sleep enhances memory for the order of events from an art tour, but not the details of the events. The sleep-related advantage for sequences persists for over a year. @brianlevine.bsky.social
www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Sleep selectively and durably enhances memory for the sequence of real-world experiences - Nature Human Behaviour

How does sleep transform the way we remember our experiences? This study finds that sleep enhances memory for the order of events from an art tour, but not the details of the events. The sleep-related...

www.nature.com

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Nature Human Behaviour @nathumbehav.nature.com · Mar 10

In this Perspective, Dörr et al. argue that research on social media has mainly focused on anti-social behaviours and call for more research on the ways in which social media platforms can empower pro-social behaviour.
https://www.nature.c...

A research agenda for encouraging prosocial behaviour on social media - Nature Human Behaviour

Dörr et al. argue that research on social media has mainly focused on antisocial behaviours and call for more research on the ways in which social media platforms can empower prosocial behaviour.

www.nature.com

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Reposted by Nick Diamond

Monika Schönauer @mschoenauer.bsky.social · Feb 26

In this new preprint from our lab, we share exciting new findings on how „Sleep resolves competition between explicit and implicit memory systems!“ 🧠 💤 🚨

Kleespies, Paulus, et al.
@katjakleespies.bsky.social @philipppaulus.bsky.social

For a brief walkthrough, I refer you to Katja‘s post below!

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Reposted by Nick Diamond

Nanthia Suthana @suthanalab.bsky.social · Mar 10

🚨 New lab paper!🚨

A dream study of mine for nearly 20 yrs not possible until now thanks to NIH 🧠 funding & 1st-author lead @seeber.bsky.social

We tracked hippocampal activity as people walked memory-guided paths & imagined them again. Did brain patterns reappear?🧵👇

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Human neural dynamics of real-world and imagined navigation - Nature Human Behaviour

Seeber et al. studied brain recordings from implanted electrodes in freely moving humans. Neural dynamics encoded actual and imagined routes similarly, demonstrating parallels between navigational, im...

www.nature.com

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Paul Frankland @franklandlab.bsky.social · Feb 5

It's the post-"standard model" age! Our Preview of a fantastic new study from Yi Zhong's lab on the role of the hippocampus in updating remote memories. Fun putting this together with Ali Golbabaei.
authors.elsevier.com/a/1kZ4f3BtfH...

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Morteza Dehghani @mdehghani.bsky.social · Jan 17

(1/4) Our new JEP:G paper dives into how moral values and misinformation spread on social media: media.mola-lab.org/file/1737039...

media.mola-lab.org

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Reposted by Nick Diamond

Hugo Spiers @hugospiers.bsky.social · Jan 16

New modelling of how episodic memory can arise from spatial mapping, just out in Nature:

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Episodic and associative memory from spatial scaffolds in the hippocampus - Nature

A neocortical–entorhinal–hippocampal network model based on grid cell states recapitulates experimental results and reconciles the spatial, associative and episodic memory roles of the hippocampus.

www.nature.com

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Eric Topol @erictopol.bsky.social · Jan 16

This week's cover and editorial @thelancet.bsky.social on mis- and disinformation's impact on public health
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

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Curd Knüpfer @curdknupfer.bsky.social · Jan 9

In case you were wondering how things are going in Germany & on X, after Elon Musk announced his support for the far-right "Alternative für Deutschland" (AfD) in the upcoming Federal election:
The chart below shows sums of tweets x impressions by members of parliament over the past 7 days...🧵⤵️

Graph that shows the sum of tweets and their impressions by members of the German Bundestag (Parliament), clustered by party. The blue AfD is a clear outlier with around 400 tweets and just under 40 million impressions.

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Jesse Anttila-Hughes @jessexjesse.bsky.social · Jan 11

perhaps another reason why econ and its related fields have been losing favor: epistemic supremacy of RCTs leads to incoherent policy recs

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Reposted by Nick Diamond

Dan Diamond @ddiamond.bsky.social · Jan 12

Trust in public health agencies has fallen and not recovered.

I asked Biden’s top health official what he thinks went wrong.

“I can’t go toe to toe with social media,” HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra said.

‘I can’t go toe to toe with social media.’ Top U.S. health official reflects, regrets.

Xavier Becerra, who has led the Department of Health and Human Services, says federal agencies are outmatched in a world of “instantaneous information and disinformation.”

www.washingtonpost.com

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Will Stancil @whstancil.bsky.social · Jan 7

Basically my view is this: right now, the vast majority of voters are getting either some or all of their political information from a giant unregulated ambient media ecosystem, which only really shows them ideas that will excite or anger them, largely free of any fact-checking

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Manlio De Domenico @manlius.bsky.social · Jan 8

If you feel that BlueSky is “different“ from X, the data supports you :)

Using a network of 15M users (56% of the platform) we find that the probability that the log-normal law is wrong wrt to the power-law is just ~7%

Why that matters? Pop 🧵 follows!

1/

#scaling #NetSky #ComplexSystems 🧪

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Will Oremus @willoremus.com · Jan 8

Here's our full story on the Meta news today, which goes far beyond an end to fact-checking and heralds a wider pullback from content moderation as Zuckerberg repositions the company for the Trump era. Gift link: wapo.st/4h223hP

Meta ends fact-checking, drawing praise from Trump

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg ended fact-checking on Facebook and Instagram in favor of community notes, calling the recent election a “cultural tipping point” on free speech.

wapo.st

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Joe Bak-Coleman @jbakcoleman.bsky.social · Jan 7

Community noteas take time to identify and attach, and only have any effect after this processes has completed---long after much of the exposure occurs. They also have lesser effect implicity on any content posted by large accounts as they get a *ton* of spread before a community note can be found.

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David Lazer @davidlazer.bsky.social · Jan 7

Reflecting on the remarkable announcement from Meta today regarding content moderation. @sgonzalezbailon.bsky.social & I & team had a recent paper looking at the diffusion of (mis)information on Facebook during the 2020 election. A few reflections...

sociologicalscience.com/articles-v11...

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Claes de Vreese @claesdevreese.bsky.social · Jan 7

“We find that fact-checks are successful in debunking misperceptions. Moreover, this debunking effect is consistent across countries”

Posting this key finding from our recent 16 country study.

For no particular reason today.

doi.org/10.1080/1520...

When are Fact-Checks Effective? An Experimental Study on the Inclusion of the Misinformation Source and the Source of Fact-Checks in 16 European Countries

Despite increasing academic attention, several questions about fact-checking remain unanswered. First, it remains unclear to what extent fact-checks are effective across different political and med...

doi.org

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