Jim Sullivan
@jimsullivan.bsky.social
Meteorologist at NWS Cleveland. I forecast the weather with mixed results. Thoughts and views are my own. Fork off.
While I'd usually advise against posting 360 hour model images, it's always fun when the ensemble mean has closed 500mb height contours north of the Arctic Circle that far out.
November 13, 2025 at 2:17 AM
While I'd usually advise against posting 360 hour model images, it's always fun when the ensemble mean has closed 500mb height contours north of the Arctic Circle that far out.
First real tap of arctic air of the season into the Great Lakes Sunday and Monday. The lakes still have plenty of warmth and will be primed to go beneath this cold air, with the airmass cold enough for the ptype to be mainly snow. It'll be a quick shot, but some accumulating lake effect is likely.
November 5, 2025 at 1:40 AM
First real tap of arctic air of the season into the Great Lakes Sunday and Monday. The lakes still have plenty of warmth and will be primed to go beneath this cold air, with the airmass cold enough for the ptype to be mainly snow. It'll be a quick shot, but some accumulating lake effect is likely.
The CDO is very large, symmetric, cold and expanding, and the eye remains very sharp and warm. Recon confirms the satellite trends and suggests that Hurricane Melissa is deepening at the moment. This is just unimaginably bad for Jamaica.
October 28, 2025 at 4:35 AM
The CDO is very large, symmetric, cold and expanding, and the eye remains very sharp and warm. Recon confirms the satellite trends and suggests that Hurricane Melissa is deepening at the moment. This is just unimaginably bad for Jamaica.
The latest eye dropsonde (342z) from recon in the eye of Hurricane Melissa splashed down at 902mb with 22kt of wind...suggesting a minimum central pressure of ~900mb. Melissa remains extremely well organized on satellite and recon suggests it is not at all weakening, and may still be intensifying.
October 28, 2025 at 4:13 AM
The latest eye dropsonde (342z) from recon in the eye of Hurricane Melissa splashed down at 902mb with 22kt of wind...suggesting a minimum central pressure of ~900mb. Melissa remains extremely well organized on satellite and recon suggests it is not at all weakening, and may still be intensifying.
The Blue Jays blew the roof off this inning, holy fuck!
October 25, 2025 at 2:34 AM
The Blue Jays blew the roof off this inning, holy fuck!
Merrill Garland sounds like he could play basketball for the Cleveland Cavaliers
October 25, 2025 at 2:33 AM
Merrill Garland sounds like he could play basketball for the Cleveland Cavaliers
Interesting setup for low-topped severe wx in the SE MI/N OH/SW ON vicinity Tuesday aft'n/evening. Cold front really well-positioned ahead of a compact negatively-tilted shortwave, with decent shear and steep low-mid level lapse rates under the cold pool. These setups make the most of a little CAPE.
October 21, 2025 at 2:30 AM
Interesting setup for low-topped severe wx in the SE MI/N OH/SW ON vicinity Tuesday aft'n/evening. Cold front really well-positioned ahead of a compact negatively-tilted shortwave, with decent shear and steep low-mid level lapse rates under the cold pool. These setups make the most of a little CAPE.
Shear and mid-level dry air caused Kiko's convection to collapse this evening. Resultant gravity waves propagated away from the convection, briefly disrupting shallow cumulus within Kiko's low-level circulation. These cumulus suggest fluxes are trying to re-moisten the circulation, a slow process.
September 10, 2025 at 5:59 AM
Shear and mid-level dry air caused Kiko's convection to collapse this evening. Resultant gravity waves propagated away from the convection, briefly disrupting shallow cumulus within Kiko's low-level circulation. These cumulus suggest fluxes are trying to re-moisten the circulation, a slow process.
The trough that carves out over central Canada, the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes this upcoming week has origins north of Alaska early in the loop.
For whatever THAT'S worth at the beginning of September.
Some early signs of the changing of the seasons this year.
For whatever THAT'S worth at the beginning of September.
Some early signs of the changing of the seasons this year.
August 31, 2025 at 12:29 AM
The trough that carves out over central Canada, the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes this upcoming week has origins north of Alaska early in the loop.
For whatever THAT'S worth at the beginning of September.
Some early signs of the changing of the seasons this year.
For whatever THAT'S worth at the beginning of September.
Some early signs of the changing of the seasons this year.
The dumbest timeline
August 28, 2025 at 4:20 AM
The dumbest timeline
Erin was a very impressive hurricane at peak on Saturday. Still was a compact storm, which helped minimize interaction with lingering dry air to the north of the center. And it had a tight, violent, essentially uninterrupted inner core until an ERC took place, allowing for explosive intensification.
August 17, 2025 at 4:50 AM
Erin was a very impressive hurricane at peak on Saturday. Still was a compact storm, which helped minimize interaction with lingering dry air to the north of the center. And it had a tight, violent, essentially uninterrupted inner core until an ERC took place, allowing for explosive intensification.
Reposted by Jim Sullivan
Unbelievable footage from NOAA’s Hurricane Hunters inside the eye of Hurricane Erin.
Simply incredible.
Simply incredible.
August 16, 2025 at 9:22 PM
Unbelievable footage from NOAA’s Hurricane Hunters inside the eye of Hurricane Erin.
Simply incredible.
Simply incredible.
The NHC did not take long to upgrade Erin to a Cat 5 after recon completed this pass. This eye dropsonde splashed down at 920mb with 50kt of wind, suggesting something close to 915mb for a minimum central pressure. Also, evidence of strong subsidence in the eye with warming and drying aloft.
August 16, 2025 at 3:29 PM
The NHC did not take long to upgrade Erin to a Cat 5 after recon completed this pass. This eye dropsonde splashed down at 920mb with 50kt of wind, suggesting something close to 915mb for a minimum central pressure. Also, evidence of strong subsidence in the eye with warming and drying aloft.
Oye. Never trust a “PoP” forecast on the edge of a heat dome in mid summer. The flow and forcing appear weak, but when your surface parcel is like 89/74 these small convectively aided shortwaves are enough for widespread convection. A stormier afternoon than expected across parts of Ohio today.
July 29, 2025 at 12:42 AM
Oye. Never trust a “PoP” forecast on the edge of a heat dome in mid summer. The flow and forcing appear weak, but when your surface parcel is like 89/74 these small convectively aided shortwaves are enough for widespread convection. A stormier afternoon than expected across parts of Ohio today.
Reposted by Jim Sullivan
Deporting children of military veterans because they were born on an overseas military base.
This man has no citizenship now.
This man has no citizenship now.
Texas Man Born to U.S. Soldier on U.S. Army Base Abroad Deported
He has no citizenship to any country, despite SCOTUS case
www.austinchronicle.com
June 26, 2025 at 5:03 PM
Deporting children of military veterans because they were born on an overseas military base.
This man has no citizenship now.
This man has no citizenship now.
Reposted by Jim Sullivan
For no particular reason, thinking about some of the major aspects of NHC operations that came out of the NOAA/OAR research labs and the Cooperative Institutes. I've probably missed some key ones, but the first ones that come to mind are...
June 30, 2025 at 9:42 PM
For no particular reason, thinking about some of the major aspects of NHC operations that came out of the NOAA/OAR research labs and the Cooperative Institutes. I've probably missed some key ones, but the first ones that come to mind are...
Very bad
Here was the message that was disseminated at 1730 UTC today by NESDIS: www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/message...
June 26, 2025 at 3:59 AM
Very bad
I must admit that lake enhanced precip on the scope doesn’t warm my heart quite as much in late May as it does between October and April.
May 22, 2025 at 2:48 PM
I must admit that lake enhanced precip on the scope doesn’t warm my heart quite as much in late May as it does between October and April.
Somewhat conditional (on heating) severe threat around eastern OH/WV/western PA Wednesday. Ahead of a shortwave and in the exit region of the jet, cold aloft, backed sfc flow/ambient vorticity near the surface low/warm front, and some shear. Hail, gusty winds, perhaps brief tornadoes seem possible.
May 21, 2025 at 4:17 AM
Somewhat conditional (on heating) severe threat around eastern OH/WV/western PA Wednesday. Ahead of a shortwave and in the exit region of the jet, cold aloft, backed sfc flow/ambient vorticity near the surface low/warm front, and some shear. Hail, gusty winds, perhaps brief tornadoes seem possible.
20 years ago, a prolonged late-April snow event wrapped up in the Cleveland area, capping off the snowiest winter on record for CLE. Here’s a vintage PNS. Note several counties with at least one 10”+ snow on ground report. The tree damage was significant.
mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.ph...
mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.ph...
IEM :: PNS from NWS CLE
PNS issued by NWS CLE at 25 Apr 2005 15:17 UTC
mesonet.agron.iastate.edu
April 25, 2025 at 2:09 PM
20 years ago, a prolonged late-April snow event wrapped up in the Cleveland area, capping off the snowiest winter on record for CLE. Here’s a vintage PNS. Note several counties with at least one 10”+ snow on ground report. The tree damage was significant.
mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.ph...
mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.ph...
Reposted by Jim Sullivan
Oh no! Several of the Regional Climate Centers have had their funding lapse through DOC/NOAA. These institutes are critical for connecting weather and climate data and services to local communities across the United States.
Spread the word to drive attention and support!
Spread the word to drive attention and support!
April 17, 2025 at 11:29 AM
Oh no! Several of the Regional Climate Centers have had their funding lapse through DOC/NOAA. These institutes are critical for connecting weather and climate data and services to local communities across the United States.
Spread the word to drive attention and support!
Spread the word to drive attention and support!
Reposted by Jim Sullivan
HRRR? RRFS? Those models don’t exist without NOAA’s Global Systems Lab.
The physics used in even more models? Not possible without us.
Decision-support tools like DESI and IDSS Engine used throughout the NWS? Also us.
What my lab does is *integral* to weather prediction and keeping people safe.
The physics used in even more models? Not possible without us.
Decision-support tools like DESI and IDSS Engine used throughout the NWS? Also us.
What my lab does is *integral* to weather prediction and keeping people safe.
April 17, 2025 at 1:32 AM
HRRR? RRFS? Those models don’t exist without NOAA’s Global Systems Lab.
The physics used in even more models? Not possible without us.
Decision-support tools like DESI and IDSS Engine used throughout the NWS? Also us.
What my lab does is *integral* to weather prediction and keeping people safe.
The physics used in even more models? Not possible without us.
Decision-support tools like DESI and IDSS Engine used throughout the NWS? Also us.
What my lab does is *integral* to weather prediction and keeping people safe.
I’d expect these words to be spoken by someone whose loved one was kidnapped by a shadowy criminal organization.
Instead, her husband was sent by the US to an El Salvador gulag over an administrative error, with both countries basically saying “there’s nothing we can do to fix this!”
Dark stuff.
Instead, her husband was sent by the US to an El Salvador gulag over an administrative error, with both countries basically saying “there’s nothing we can do to fix this!”
Dark stuff.
Abrego Garcia's wife: "I will not stop fighting until I see my husband alive. Kilmar, if you can hear me, stay strong. God hasn't forgotten about you. Our children are asking when you will come home ... they miss their dad so much."
April 15, 2025 at 10:05 PM
I’d expect these words to be spoken by someone whose loved one was kidnapped by a shadowy criminal organization.
Instead, her husband was sent by the US to an El Salvador gulag over an administrative error, with both countries basically saying “there’s nothing we can do to fix this!”
Dark stuff.
Instead, her husband was sent by the US to an El Salvador gulag over an administrative error, with both countries basically saying “there’s nothing we can do to fix this!”
Dark stuff.
It's easy to forget in the middle of all the other bad things going on right now, but the tech oligarchs continue to get an unprecedented amount of access to the very inner workings of the federal government and all of our personal data.
Great news, everyone. A surveillance company started by Peter Thiel is part of the hackathon playing with our data at IRS.
www.wired.com/story/palant...
www.wired.com/story/palant...
Palantir Is Helping DOGE With a Massive IRS Data Project
For the last three days, DOGE and a handful of Palantir representatives, along with dozens of career IRS engineers, have been collaborating to build a "mega API," WIRED has learned.
www.wired.com
April 11, 2025 at 11:05 PM
It's easy to forget in the middle of all the other bad things going on right now, but the tech oligarchs continue to get an unprecedented amount of access to the very inner workings of the federal government and all of our personal data.
I was not expecting to see icicles out in the woods on April 9th, but a couple of cold nights after a rainy spell will do the trick.
April 9, 2025 at 9:12 PM
I was not expecting to see icicles out in the woods on April 9th, but a couple of cold nights after a rainy spell will do the trick.