Mark Blumenthal
@mysterypollster.bsky.social
3.5K followers 330 following 120 posts
Pollster. Husband. Father. Cyclist. Currently: YouGov (contractor). Formerly: SurveyMonkey, HuffPost, Pollster.com Contact me: https://linktr.ee/markblumenthal
Posts Media Videos Starter Packs
Reposted by Mark Blumenthal
kwcollins.bsky.social
Whatever you may think of Jeff Bezos and his choices about the editorial page, the Post is the only local outlet doing this kind of high-quality, DC and DMV-centric polling. Thank goodness they're still here.
sfcpoll.bsky.social
New Washington Post-Schar School poll: Most D.C. residents strongly oppose Trump’s city police takeover, with crime concerns continue a sharp decline and statehood support reaches a record high. Story w/ @joeheim.bsky.social @emgusk.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/202...
mysterypollster.bsky.social
5:00 am. Final pre-ride check list item: Poppa on board. Now we ride!!

#PMC2025 gives 100% of your donations to the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute. pmc.org/MB0437
A photo of my late father-in-law Frank Burstin, Velcro strapped to my handlebars. Pops survived Auschwitz, but succumbed to cancer in 2008
mysterypollster.bsky.social
I'm riding 186 miles across Massachusetts this weekend to raise $$ for the Dana Farber Cancer Institute, and I hope there's one thing my 6800 rider comrades and the 3500 volunteers should agree on: Let’s all support the National institutes of Health! #PMC2025
Me, standing in front of hundreds of bikes ready to ride the PanMass Challenge, holding a sign over my head that reads, “I support NIH”
mysterypollster.bsky.social
This weekend, for the 15th straight year, I'm riding 186 miles over two days across Massachusetts to raise funds for the Dana Farber Cancer Institute. This terrific Today Show segment explains what it's all about. #PMC2025
youtu.be/vyciUXk_1hI?...
Meet the Man Behind the Pan-Mass Challenge in Massachusetts
YouTube video by TODAY
youtu.be
mysterypollster.bsky.social
Same
kwcollins.bsky.social
Right now it's basically just the @capitalweather.bsky.social and the Post's polling team that is keeping me as a subscriber.
pbump.com
And, uh, some personal news: This is also my last column for The Post. I was offered and accepted a buyout.
To answer one possible next question, I'm not sure what's next save taking some time off. If you want, you can enter your email at pbump.net and I'll let you know when I figure it out!
mysterypollster.bsky.social
What a loss. Very few do data journalism as well as @pbump.com. Looking forward to following his work wherever he lands
pbump.com
And, uh, some personal news: This is also my last column for The Post. I was offered and accepted a buyout.
To answer one possible next question, I'm not sure what's next save taking some time off. If you want, you can enter your email at pbump.net and I'll let you know when I figure it out!
pbump.com
For my column today, I wrote about how Trump leveraged America's collapsing trust in institutions — and how his second term has accelerated that collapse. Gift link: wapo.st/3IzN4QA
mysterypollster.bsky.social
Very confusing. And this wasn’t from an online panel. Was text to web.
Reposted by Mark Blumenthal
kwcollins.bsky.social
But follow @gelliottmorris.com for approval averages
drjennings.bsky.social
It's a real shame that ABC shut down 538 right now...
mysterypollster.bsky.social
Ten-year-old (!) memory, with a bonus: the workings of the roll-your-own Pollster chart
aedwardslevy.bsky.social
taking this opportunity to celebrate perhaps one of the silliest survey experiments I've ever conducted

www.huffpost.com/entry/obama-...
mysterypollster.bsky.social
Nope. Not nearly enough.

Nor that it’s a budget IN BALANCE funded by income, property and sales taxes paid by DC residents
jebnc.bsky.social
I don’t think enough attention has been put on how services for DC residents are going to be destroyed they have to find 1$ billion dollars in their budgets from schools, police, fire, parks etc
mysterypollster.bsky.social
Aaron was similarly valuable at HuffPost/Pollster during his tenure there from 2011-2015. Agree: Hire him!
baseballot.bsky.social
Aaron Bycoffe was 538's secret sauce. He combined advanced dev & technical skills with a savvy eye for the user experience, making sure all our interactives worked as seamlessly as they did. Hire him. www.linkedin.com/in/aaron-byc...
mysterypollster.bsky.social
Which route? I’ll see you there — will be my 16th PMC
Reposted by Mark Blumenthal
gelliottmorris.com
As reported, the entire staff of 538 was laid off this morning. This is a severe blow to political data journalism, and I feel for my colleagues. Readers note: As we were instructed not to publish any new content, all planned updates to polls data and averages are canceled indefinitely. Huge loss :(
Reposted by Mark Blumenthal
kwcollins.bsky.social
Important news that should not get lost in the takes about last night's speech. The team at FiveThirtyEight -- the new team, with @gelliottmorris.com leading the analytics side but also with excellent reporters -- has done truly excellent work. A short appreciation thread
walthickey.bsky.social
man ABC completely blew it on this. absolute fumble. it feels like it's been the end of an era for most of an era but this is kind of devastating anyway.
mysterypollster.bsky.social
The remaining approval poll aggregator lacks Fivethirtyeight’s commitment to minimal transparency in the pollsters included in their average. That’s a problem. Background: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/08/rasmussen-538-polling/
/2
mysterypollster.bsky.social
It’s more than ironic we learn of the coming demise of Fivethirtyeight on the day their Trump approval tracker turns net negative. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/
/1
Chart of tend in approval rating of Donald Trump, currently showing 47.9% disapproval, 47.6% approval
mysterypollster.bsky.social
This. Every word of this.
aedwardslevy.bsky.social
Sometimes folks treat 538 as synonymous with the forecast models, but
a) the polling data they compiled was a huge undertaking that underpinned *so much other work* both inside and outside
b) they did a phenomenal amount of nuanced, thoughtful writing about politics and public opinion
pbump.com
ABC News is killing off 538, which is incredibly stupid but means there will be a lot of really exceptional people on the job market.