nfiertz.bsky.social
@nfiertz.bsky.social
Reposted by nfiertz.bsky.social
This is a terribly misunderstood point, even in insurance circles.
Our estimates of the 1 in 100 flood are almost always extrapolations and depend heavily on our assumptions and a few (or zero) real events. In most cases, the 'actual' 1:100 flood could be ~20% lower or higher (at least).
Our estimates of the 1 in 100 flood are almost always extrapolations and depend heavily on our assumptions and a few (or zero) real events. In most cases, the 'actual' 1:100 flood could be ~20% lower or higher (at least).
The defense that this was just an adjustment based on better data is self-serving BS.
We do *not* know what the 100-yr flood level is - even if we had perfect DEMs.
Even if we had perfect historical data, non-stationarity means we don’t know what the level is *now*, let alone in the future.
We do *not* know what the 100-yr flood level is - even if we had perfect DEMs.
Even if we had perfect historical data, non-stationarity means we don’t know what the level is *now*, let alone in the future.
November 20, 2025 at 1:48 AM
This is a terribly misunderstood point, even in insurance circles.
Our estimates of the 1 in 100 flood are almost always extrapolations and depend heavily on our assumptions and a few (or zero) real events. In most cases, the 'actual' 1:100 flood could be ~20% lower or higher (at least).
Our estimates of the 1 in 100 flood are almost always extrapolations and depend heavily on our assumptions and a few (or zero) real events. In most cases, the 'actual' 1:100 flood could be ~20% lower or higher (at least).
Reposted by nfiertz.bsky.social
Tolkein is good strong medicine for any climate person and always has been
they never at any point thought they would win, and winning came at a terrible price, but what is there to do except the work
take the Ring, though you do not know the way
they never at any point thought they would win, and winning came at a terrible price, but what is there to do except the work
take the Ring, though you do not know the way
![them: "there's no hope of stopping global warming now"
me:
[image is Aragorn from the 1978 Lord of the Rings speaking to Frodo. Someone MSPainted a black bandana on Aragorn's face.]
"Then we must do without hope. There is always vengeance."](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:4djfp3b27soxcfkxhirydi6d/bafkreic5gogoyf2gqurrb44ru5t4euqnmj3hvmalnmhqlnbvwotuc42ff4@jpeg)
November 8, 2024 at 2:06 PM
Tolkein is good strong medicine for any climate person and always has been
they never at any point thought they would win, and winning came at a terrible price, but what is there to do except the work
take the Ring, though you do not know the way
they never at any point thought they would win, and winning came at a terrible price, but what is there to do except the work
take the Ring, though you do not know the way
Reposted by nfiertz.bsky.social
November 9, 2025 at 12:11 AM
Reposted by nfiertz.bsky.social
🚨EXCLUSIVE🚨
Many things are changing before our eyes. Others are harder to see
Like the US economy
Americans are spending more 💲 recovering from disasters and preparing for the next one. 36% of US GDP growth since 2000 is related to climate disasters.
Welcome to the Disaster Industrial Complex 🎁🔗
Many things are changing before our eyes. Others are harder to see
Like the US economy
Americans are spending more 💲 recovering from disasters and preparing for the next one. 36% of US GDP growth since 2000 is related to climate disasters.
Welcome to the Disaster Industrial Complex 🎁🔗
Disaster Recovery Is an $8 Trillion Driver of US Growth
Investors are on the hunt for companies powering the disaster industrial complex, which are fueling US growth and outpacing the S&P 500
www.bloomberg.com
October 21, 2025 at 9:42 PM
🚨EXCLUSIVE🚨
Many things are changing before our eyes. Others are harder to see
Like the US economy
Americans are spending more 💲 recovering from disasters and preparing for the next one. 36% of US GDP growth since 2000 is related to climate disasters.
Welcome to the Disaster Industrial Complex 🎁🔗
Many things are changing before our eyes. Others are harder to see
Like the US economy
Americans are spending more 💲 recovering from disasters and preparing for the next one. 36% of US GDP growth since 2000 is related to climate disasters.
Welcome to the Disaster Industrial Complex 🎁🔗
Reposted by nfiertz.bsky.social
Doing environmental review on an individualized project-by-project basis makes absolutely no sense. Whether, for example, an apartment building is low-VMT or high-VMT depends entirely on the plan for the larger community in which it is being developed.
"New Rochelle put the entire build-out plan through state environmental review in one shot. That spared individual proposals the political and legal grind that often slows things to a halt." This is the way. www.governing.com/magazine/get...
'Getting Ahead of the NIMBY Energy': An Older City Learns to Build
Clear, consistent planning and messaging helped New Rochelle, N.Y., build thousands of housing units with minimal blowback.
www.governing.com
October 20, 2025 at 9:59 PM
Doing environmental review on an individualized project-by-project basis makes absolutely no sense. Whether, for example, an apartment building is low-VMT or high-VMT depends entirely on the plan for the larger community in which it is being developed.
Reposted by nfiertz.bsky.social
Important new carbon markets story from @benelgin.bsky.social in Bloomberg:
Verra acknowledges it issued too many carbon credits to a controversial forest offset project, but hasn't implemented a remedy — despite backing companies' use of these credits.
🎁 Gift link below.
Verra acknowledges it issued too many carbon credits to a controversial forest offset project, but hasn't implemented a remedy — despite backing companies' use of these credits.
🎁 Gift link below.
Majority of Carbon Credits From Tarnished Project Deemed Bogus
After a two-year probe, findings by the world's largest offset certifier raise pressing questions for the struggling carbon markets.
www.bloomberg.com
October 17, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Important new carbon markets story from @benelgin.bsky.social in Bloomberg:
Verra acknowledges it issued too many carbon credits to a controversial forest offset project, but hasn't implemented a remedy — despite backing companies' use of these credits.
🎁 Gift link below.
Verra acknowledges it issued too many carbon credits to a controversial forest offset project, but hasn't implemented a remedy — despite backing companies' use of these credits.
🎁 Gift link below.
Reposted by nfiertz.bsky.social
Months before catastrophic floods swept through an Alaska Native village on Sunday, the Trump administration canceled a $20 million grant meant to protect the community from extreme flooding. At the time, the EPA administrator said he was eliminating "wasteful DEI and Environmental Justice grants."
E.P.A. Canceled $20 Million Flood Protection Grant to Alaska, Parts of Which Just Flooded
The remote village of Kipnuk planned to use the money to protect against flooding. On Sunday, it was inundated.
nyti.ms
October 15, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Months before catastrophic floods swept through an Alaska Native village on Sunday, the Trump administration canceled a $20 million grant meant to protect the community from extreme flooding. At the time, the EPA administrator said he was eliminating "wasteful DEI and Environmental Justice grants."
Reposted by nfiertz.bsky.social
I'm gonna try to articulate something I've been thinking about for a while, regarding *why* disillusionment, distrust, & dissatisfaction with democracy are rising.
Almost everything I read takes this phenomenon as an exogenous shock, assuming no one chose to make it so. I suspect that's incomplete.
Almost everything I read takes this phenomenon as an exogenous shock, assuming no one chose to make it so. I suspect that's incomplete.
October 15, 2025 at 2:56 PM
I'm gonna try to articulate something I've been thinking about for a while, regarding *why* disillusionment, distrust, & dissatisfaction with democracy are rising.
Almost everything I read takes this phenomenon as an exogenous shock, assuming no one chose to make it so. I suspect that's incomplete.
Almost everything I read takes this phenomenon as an exogenous shock, assuming no one chose to make it so. I suspect that's incomplete.
Reposted by nfiertz.bsky.social
NEW: A significant gap in weather balloon coverage in western Alaska, caused by Trump admin cuts to NOAA/NWS, may have hurt the forecast accuracy for the deadly storm there over the weekend. www.cnn.com/2025/10/14/w...
Predictions for deadly Alaska storm may have suffered due to DOGE cuts | CNN
The forecast for the powerful and deadly storm that battered small communities in western Alaska over the weekend was likely made worse by a lack of weather data triggered by the Trump administration’...
www.cnn.com
October 14, 2025 at 6:53 PM
NEW: A significant gap in weather balloon coverage in western Alaska, caused by Trump admin cuts to NOAA/NWS, may have hurt the forecast accuracy for the deadly storm there over the weekend. www.cnn.com/2025/10/14/w...
Reposted by nfiertz.bsky.social
Insurers of last resort are state-enabled programs meant to provide insurance to properties that insurers refuse to cover. And yet in our @cplusc.bsky.social report, we find these plans are ill designed to meet their policy objectives, and are instead run by and for the private insurance sector 🧵
As insurance prices balloon & companies refuse renewals, state “insurers of last resort” (FAIR plans) are often the only coverage option left for many homeowners. Our new report explains how they often prioritize cost savings for companies, not affordability for families.
October 2, 2025 at 6:29 PM
Insurers of last resort are state-enabled programs meant to provide insurance to properties that insurers refuse to cover. And yet in our @cplusc.bsky.social report, we find these plans are ill designed to meet their policy objectives, and are instead run by and for the private insurance sector 🧵
Reposted by nfiertz.bsky.social
90 of 111 fatalities from Hurricane Rita happened due to the evacuation. 20 years later, would we do any better?
@sarava.net shouting out the value of much improved track forecasts
🎁 link:
@sarava.net shouting out the value of much improved track forecasts
🎁 link:
20 years after Rita’s gridlock nightmare, is Houston ready to evacuate again?
Stalled and overheated cars, endless gridlock and nearly 100 deaths. The deadly Hurricane Rita evacuation is still etched in the memories of many Houstonians 20 years later.
www.houstonchronicle.com
September 25, 2025 at 10:27 PM
90 of 111 fatalities from Hurricane Rita happened due to the evacuation. 20 years later, would we do any better?
@sarava.net shouting out the value of much improved track forecasts
🎁 link:
@sarava.net shouting out the value of much improved track forecasts
🎁 link:
Reposted by nfiertz.bsky.social
California's SB 79 has now passed the State Senate, after passing the State Assembly yesterday. It's now on to the governor's desk.
It's a big change in zoning policy for California's cities that will encourage substantial additional housing in neighborhoods around the state's transit stations.
It's a big change in zoning policy for California's cities that will encourage substantial additional housing in neighborhoods around the state's transit stations.
September 12, 2025 at 10:28 PM
California's SB 79 has now passed the State Senate, after passing the State Assembly yesterday. It's now on to the governor's desk.
It's a big change in zoning policy for California's cities that will encourage substantial additional housing in neighborhoods around the state's transit stations.
It's a big change in zoning policy for California's cities that will encourage substantial additional housing in neighborhoods around the state's transit stations.
Reposted by nfiertz.bsky.social
Charlie Kirk did not do politics the right way. We do democracy no favors by pretending Kirk was something he was not.
Not All Victims Should Be Martyrs
Charlie Kirk believed in advancing right-wing political goals and attacking left-wing opponents by any and all means necessary—including political violence.
www.liberalcurrents.com
September 13, 2025 at 4:39 PM
Charlie Kirk did not do politics the right way. We do democracy no favors by pretending Kirk was something he was not.
Reposted by nfiertz.bsky.social
The situation in Nepal is incredible. The government tried to ban social media last week which led to violent protests and the prime minister ousted.
Gen Z protesters then met in a 100K strong Discord chat where they elected ex-chief justice Sushila Karki as the interim prime minister.
Gen Z protesters then met in a 100K strong Discord chat where they elected ex-chief justice Sushila Karki as the interim prime minister.
Nepal’s Social Media Ban Backfires as Politics Moves to a Chat Room
www.nytimes.com
September 12, 2025 at 4:46 PM
The situation in Nepal is incredible. The government tried to ban social media last week which led to violent protests and the prime minister ousted.
Gen Z protesters then met in a 100K strong Discord chat where they elected ex-chief justice Sushila Karki as the interim prime minister.
Gen Z protesters then met in a 100K strong Discord chat where they elected ex-chief justice Sushila Karki as the interim prime minister.
Reposted by nfiertz.bsky.social
More than one in four US homes—amounting to $12.7 trillion in real estate—faces at least one type of “severe or extreme climate risk,” like floods, hurricanes, and wildfires - new report by Realtor
fortune.com/2025/09/03/h...
fortune.com/2025/09/03/h...
One out of every 4 homes is at 'severe or extreme' climate risk, study says
Some $12.7 trillion of Americans' housing wealth is exposed to the climate change crisis.
fortune.com
September 5, 2025 at 8:00 AM
More than one in four US homes—amounting to $12.7 trillion in real estate—faces at least one type of “severe or extreme climate risk,” like floods, hurricanes, and wildfires - new report by Realtor
fortune.com/2025/09/03/h...
fortune.com/2025/09/03/h...
Reposted by nfiertz.bsky.social
"Every administration is forced to build the plane as it flies, but this is the first one to pull random parts from the engine at 30,000 feet."
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
September 9, 2025 at 6:00 PM
"Every administration is forced to build the plane as it flies, but this is the first one to pull random parts from the engine at 30,000 feet."
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Reposted by nfiertz.bsky.social
People from all over are showing up for DC. This is not a moment. It’s a movement. We are united in our demands. We are all DC! #FreeDC
September 6, 2025 at 6:08 PM
People from all over are showing up for DC. This is not a moment. It’s a movement. We are united in our demands. We are all DC! #FreeDC
Reposted by nfiertz.bsky.social
Actually, the rest of that section also screams "SCOTUS is losing legitimacy in the eyes of the District Courts"
September 3, 2025 at 8:37 PM
Actually, the rest of that section also screams "SCOTUS is losing legitimacy in the eyes of the District Courts"
Reposted by nfiertz.bsky.social
The ad campaign criticizing the use of masks by federal agents working in Washington, D.C. has expanded to 115 bus stops, per organizers
September 3, 2025 at 1:37 PM
The ad campaign criticizing the use of masks by federal agents working in Washington, D.C. has expanded to 115 bus stops, per organizers
Reposted by nfiertz.bsky.social
Reposted by nfiertz.bsky.social
Big news out of Florida tonight! An environmental challenge has brought the use of the Everglades detention camp to a halt.
BREAKING: Judge blocks transfer of new detainees to Alligator Alcatraz, sets in motion 60-day wind down of immigration prison at Everglades airport. via @leonardkl www.politico.com/news/2025/08...
Judge bars Florida from bringing more detainees to ‘Alligator Alcatraz’
The ruling would make it impossible to operate the immigration detention center in the Everglades west of Miami.
www.politico.com
August 22, 2025 at 1:54 AM
Big news out of Florida tonight! An environmental challenge has brought the use of the Everglades detention camp to a halt.
Reposted by nfiertz.bsky.social
china's shift to renewables is so fast that they are *building new coal plants* and it's still not stopping the share of renewables from growing rapidly.
foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/21/c...
foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/21/c...
August 21, 2025 at 11:18 PM
china's shift to renewables is so fast that they are *building new coal plants* and it's still not stopping the share of renewables from growing rapidly.
foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/21/c...
foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/21/c...
Reposted by nfiertz.bsky.social
from chandra manning's wonderful book "what this cruel war was over"
August 19, 2025 at 11:39 PM
from chandra manning's wonderful book "what this cruel war was over"
Reposted by nfiertz.bsky.social
if you go berserk because a white guy bopped your pet pig with a tasty snack you look even stupider than you started, if you don't respond at all you look pathetic, and Trump isn't capable of a proportionate response
August 15, 2025 at 5:01 AM
if you go berserk because a white guy bopped your pet pig with a tasty snack you look even stupider than you started, if you don't respond at all you look pathetic, and Trump isn't capable of a proportionate response
Reposted by nfiertz.bsky.social
I'm writing about insurance and climate change for the first time in ages, and far out those guys have been busy while I wasn't looking
August 19, 2025 at 5:15 AM
I'm writing about insurance and climate change for the first time in ages, and far out those guys have been busy while I wasn't looking