Simone Pelizza
@spelizza.bsky.social
History & IR. Asia-Pacific, Russia, Central and Eastern Europe. Writer and editor at ilcaffegeopolitico.net
Reposted by Simone Pelizza
The main problem is not that Putin lies. He has always lied and always will. The problem is that so many people desperately want to believe him. Putin's lies make their lives more comfortable. They free them from the moral obligation to help Ukraine.
December 30, 2025 at 11:41 AM
The main problem is not that Putin lies. He has always lied and always will. The problem is that so many people desperately want to believe him. Putin's lies make their lives more comfortable. They free them from the moral obligation to help Ukraine.
Reposted by Simone Pelizza
An essential development over the past decade-plus is that the ignorant went from feeling chastened when their ignorance was revealed to banding together and deciding that, actually, they were right. They might disagree at times, but they agreed that ignorance itself was an indicator of trust.
December 29, 2025 at 3:26 PM
An essential development over the past decade-plus is that the ignorant went from feeling chastened when their ignorance was revealed to banding together and deciding that, actually, they were right. They might disagree at times, but they agreed that ignorance itself was an indicator of trust.
Reposted by Simone Pelizza
🇷🇺📉 Russia's manufacturing sector contracted at its fastest rate since March 2022 in December, as output and new orders fell sharply, S&P Global reported on Monday.
www.reuters.com/business/rus...
www.reuters.com/business/rus...
Russian factory activity shrinks at fastest pace since March 2022, PMI shows
Russia's manufacturing sector contracted at its fastest rate since March 2022 in December, as output and new orders fell sharply, S&P Global reported on Monday.
www.reuters.com
December 29, 2025 at 6:30 AM
🇷🇺📉 Russia's manufacturing sector contracted at its fastest rate since March 2022 in December, as output and new orders fell sharply, S&P Global reported on Monday.
www.reuters.com/business/rus...
www.reuters.com/business/rus...
Reposted by Simone Pelizza
The deepest determinant of one's position on the Ru-Ukr war is how one perceives the prospects of Ru conquering, absorbing and dominating Ukraine again as it did for centuries. Those who think it's unacceptable to allow this national genocide support Ukr's resistance. Those who...
December 28, 2025 at 11:22 PM
The deepest determinant of one's position on the Ru-Ukr war is how one perceives the prospects of Ru conquering, absorbing and dominating Ukraine again as it did for centuries. Those who think it's unacceptable to allow this national genocide support Ukr's resistance. Those who...
Reposted by Simone Pelizza
These 20 points look pretty good for Ukraine. The chance of Russia accepting this plan is zero. There is no indication that the negotiations have moved anywhere substantially in terms of ending the war.
President Zelensky for the first time outlined 20 points from his Peace Proposal for Ukraine.
December 24, 2025 at 8:58 AM
These 20 points look pretty good for Ukraine. The chance of Russia accepting this plan is zero. There is no indication that the negotiations have moved anywhere substantially in terms of ending the war.
Reposted by Simone Pelizza
Disagree here on intent of a Putin-Macron call. The French and the rest of the EU/UK are keeping Ukraine in play. This is more about making a performative pitch to Trump that the Europeans including Ukraine aren't warmonngers and the main barrier is Putin's obstinacy. Comms masquerading as diplomacy
Or it shows that any braindead political trend that Americans set gets eventually followed in Europe too. Let's all talk to Putin and bully Ukraine hoping to resume business as usual with Russia over Ukrainian dead bodies asap.
This is performative signalling to Trump that without any Russian willingness to back away on maximalist demands over Ukrainian sovereignty will be as futile as every previous phone conversation between Putin and Macron.
December 22, 2025 at 10:39 AM
Disagree here on intent of a Putin-Macron call. The French and the rest of the EU/UK are keeping Ukraine in play. This is more about making a performative pitch to Trump that the Europeans including Ukraine aren't warmonngers and the main barrier is Putin's obstinacy. Comms masquerading as diplomacy
Reposted by Simone Pelizza
Nobody is going to bailout Moscow when the Russian economy craters
December 19, 2025 at 8:46 AM
Nobody is going to bailout Moscow when the Russian economy craters
Reposted by Simone Pelizza
A quick explanation of how this borrowing to assist Ukraine will work. "Enhanced cooperation" means EU law is being used, but some Member States opt out. The process has been applied a few times before, but never before re the EU budget. 1/
🚨 The latest conclusions say the EU will trigger Article 20 of enhanced cooperation to ensure that any mobilisation of EU resources to guarantee joint debt "will not have an impact on the financial obligations of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia," as previously reported by Euronews.
🚨 Bombshell at #EUCO at almost 2 am: António Costa has proposed to use common borrowing to meet Ukraine's most immediate financial needs while technical work on the reparations loan continues in the coming months.
Messy mix-match solution. Leaders are still discussing.
Messy mix-match solution. Leaders are still discussing.
December 19, 2025 at 2:50 AM
A quick explanation of how this borrowing to assist Ukraine will work. "Enhanced cooperation" means EU law is being used, but some Member States opt out. The process has been applied a few times before, but never before re the EU budget. 1/
Reposted by Simone Pelizza
Alternatively that Russia starts seeing military setbacks. That will also make Putin interested in negotiations and on much better terms.
Expectations management: There won't be a Ukraine deal anytime soon. This is what it would take to get Putin interested in negotiations:
1.) Territorial "presents" in Donbas.
2.) Ukrainian army below 100.000 men and strict limits on weapons.
3.) No functioning security guarantees.
1.) Territorial "presents" in Donbas.
2.) Ukrainian army below 100.000 men and strict limits on weapons.
3.) No functioning security guarantees.
December 16, 2025 at 11:46 AM
Alternatively that Russia starts seeing military setbacks. That will also make Putin interested in negotiations and on much better terms.
Reposted by Simone Pelizza
So not even Starmer’s tech solutionism is enough for the authoritarian Trump administration.
It’s basically mob mentality: do exactly as we say, or else.
It’s basically mob mentality: do exactly as we say, or else.
Why should other countries sign deals with the United States when this president is breaking **his own deals** after less than 6 months?
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
US suspends technology deal with Britain, FT reports
The United States has suspended a technology deal it struck with Britain earlier this year, which was intended to boost ties in artificial intelligence, quantum computing and civil nuclear energy, the...
www.reuters.com
December 16, 2025 at 8:07 AM
So not even Starmer’s tech solutionism is enough for the authoritarian Trump administration.
It’s basically mob mentality: do exactly as we say, or else.
It’s basically mob mentality: do exactly as we say, or else.
Reposted by Simone Pelizza
Incredible operation: The Ukrainian Security Service (SSU) attacked a Russian Kilo-class submarine in the Novorossiysk seaport using an underwater drone known as “Sub Sea Baby.” According to the official SSU statement, the submarine sustained critical damage.
December 15, 2025 at 4:26 PM
Incredible operation: The Ukrainian Security Service (SSU) attacked a Russian Kilo-class submarine in the Novorossiysk seaport using an underwater drone known as “Sub Sea Baby.” According to the official SSU statement, the submarine sustained critical damage.
Reposted by Simone Pelizza
Ahmed al Ahmed, a Lebanese Muslim who owns a Sydney fruit shop, risked his life to disarm one of the Bondi Beach shooters.
His courage gives me hope amidst the horror and darkness. Muslims and Jews are not enemies. Our futures, in the Middle East and beyond, are intrinsically bound.
A true hero.
His courage gives me hope amidst the horror and darkness. Muslims and Jews are not enemies. Our futures, in the Middle East and beyond, are intrinsically bound.
A true hero.
December 14, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Ahmed al Ahmed, a Lebanese Muslim who owns a Sydney fruit shop, risked his life to disarm one of the Bondi Beach shooters.
His courage gives me hope amidst the horror and darkness. Muslims and Jews are not enemies. Our futures, in the Middle East and beyond, are intrinsically bound.
A true hero.
His courage gives me hope amidst the horror and darkness. Muslims and Jews are not enemies. Our futures, in the Middle East and beyond, are intrinsically bound.
A true hero.
Reposted by Simone Pelizza
"Despite being sanctioned by the EU in 2023 under its Ukraine-related measures, Pravfond continued to move money to allies across at least 11 EU member states, using intermediaries, foreign bank accounts, cash couriers, & other workarounds, as @occrp.org & partners reported earlier this year."
UK Sanctions pro-Kremlin Dugin, Rybar, and Pravfond Network
The United Kingdom has imposed asset freezes and trust-service bans on Russian ideologue Aleksandr Dugin, pro-war blogger “Rybar,” and Kremlin-linked foundation Pravfond, targeting a propaganda and in...
www.occrp.org
December 13, 2025 at 6:02 AM
"Despite being sanctioned by the EU in 2023 under its Ukraine-related measures, Pravfond continued to move money to allies across at least 11 EU member states, using intermediaries, foreign bank accounts, cash couriers, & other workarounds, as @occrp.org & partners reported earlier this year."
Reposted by Simone Pelizza
🗣️ 𝐅𝐫𝐞𝐞 𝐒𝐧𝐢𝐳𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐚! 𝐅𝐫𝐞𝐞 𝐔𝐤𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐜𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐡𝐨𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐬!
Desideriamo richiamare l'attenzione sulla questione dei civili ucraini detenuti illegalmente dalla Federazione Russa --> www.memorial-italia.it/2025/12/10/10-dicembre-2025-giornata-internazionale-dei-diritti-umani-freedom-for-ukrainian-civilians/
Desideriamo richiamare l'attenzione sulla questione dei civili ucraini detenuti illegalmente dalla Federazione Russa --> www.memorial-italia.it/2025/12/10/10-dicembre-2025-giornata-internazionale-dei-diritti-umani-freedom-for-ukrainian-civilians/
Freedom for Ukrainian Civilians! The Story of Snizhana Kozlova
YouTube video by Apus
www.youtube.com
December 11, 2025 at 10:35 AM
🗣️ 𝐅𝐫𝐞𝐞 𝐒𝐧𝐢𝐳𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐚! 𝐅𝐫𝐞𝐞 𝐔𝐤𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐜𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐡𝐨𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐬!
Desideriamo richiamare l'attenzione sulla questione dei civili ucraini detenuti illegalmente dalla Federazione Russa --> www.memorial-italia.it/2025/12/10/10-dicembre-2025-giornata-internazionale-dei-diritti-umani-freedom-for-ukrainian-civilians/
Desideriamo richiamare l'attenzione sulla questione dei civili ucraini detenuti illegalmente dalla Federazione Russa --> www.memorial-italia.it/2025/12/10/10-dicembre-2025-giornata-internazionale-dei-diritti-umani-freedom-for-ukrainian-civilians/
Okay. I will carefully avoid the United States as a travel destination. Not interested in debasing myself for the benefit of the MAGA regime.
December 10, 2025 at 7:52 AM
Okay. I will carefully avoid the United States as a travel destination. Not interested in debasing myself for the benefit of the MAGA regime.
Reposted by Simone Pelizza
Zero tolerance for doomerism. Stop lazily accepting that everything is screwed forever. Stop normalising low expectations. That’s part of the problem & it’s what the bastards want. It’s also a product of privilege. People in more desperate situations don’t have the option to just sit back & shrug.
December 5, 2025 at 10:00 AM
Zero tolerance for doomerism. Stop lazily accepting that everything is screwed forever. Stop normalising low expectations. That’s part of the problem & it’s what the bastards want. It’s also a product of privilege. People in more desperate situations don’t have the option to just sit back & shrug.
Le vie finanziarie che sostengono il commercio tra Russia e Cina cominciano a sentire il peso delle sanzioni, soprattutto quelle secondarie. Il risultato e' un quadro di crescente incertezza, con ritardi e costi in aumento per gli importatori russi.
ilcaffegeopolitico.net/1002034/rubl...
ilcaffegeopolitico.net/1002034/rubl...
Rubli e yuan tra le maglie delle sanzioni: un equilibrio sempre più instabile | Il Caffè Geopolitico
Il commercio tra Russia e Cina tocca cifre record, ma le vie finanziarie che lo sostengono iniziano a mostrare crepe, come per la filiale di VTB Bank a Shanghai
ilcaffegeopolitico.net
November 26, 2025 at 1:32 PM
Le vie finanziarie che sostengono il commercio tra Russia e Cina cominciano a sentire il peso delle sanzioni, soprattutto quelle secondarie. Il risultato e' un quadro di crescente incertezza, con ritardi e costi in aumento per gli importatori russi.
ilcaffegeopolitico.net/1002034/rubl...
ilcaffegeopolitico.net/1002034/rubl...
Reposted by Simone Pelizza
Non perdonerò *mai* la parte (tutt'altro che marginale) di sinistra che si è venduta l'anima a Putin e alla retorica nazionalista dei regimi, strumentalizzando e manipolando perfino il concetto di pace.
Tra le tante vergogne della nostra epoca, questa è una delle più disperanti.
Tra le tante vergogne della nostra epoca, questa è una delle più disperanti.
November 26, 2025 at 8:29 AM
Non perdonerò *mai* la parte (tutt'altro che marginale) di sinistra che si è venduta l'anima a Putin e alla retorica nazionalista dei regimi, strumentalizzando e manipolando perfino il concetto di pace.
Tra le tante vergogne della nostra epoca, questa è una delle più disperanti.
Tra le tante vergogne della nostra epoca, questa è una delle più disperanti.
Il College elettrotecnico di Zaporizhzhia è un ottimo esempio della resistenza e del coraggio degli ucraini di fronte all’aggressione russa. Christian Eccher ha visitato l’istituto e parlato con il suo direttore, Ruslan Kosheljuk.
ilcaffegeopolitico.net/1002019/il-c...
ilcaffegeopolitico.net/1002019/il-c...
Il College elettrotecnico di Zaporizhzhia: un nobile esempio di resistenza | Il Caffè Geopolitico
Il College elettrotecnico di Zaporizhzhia rappresenta lo spirito di resistenza degli ucraini di fronte all'aggressione russa. Christian Eccher lo ha visitato.
ilcaffegeopolitico.net
November 25, 2025 at 11:17 AM
Il College elettrotecnico di Zaporizhzhia è un ottimo esempio della resistenza e del coraggio degli ucraini di fronte all’aggressione russa. Christian Eccher ha visitato l’istituto e parlato con il suo direttore, Ruslan Kosheljuk.
ilcaffegeopolitico.net/1002019/il-c...
ilcaffegeopolitico.net/1002019/il-c...
Reposted by Simone Pelizza
Ru's primary/immediate goal in these negotiations is not territory but leaving Ukraine without credible security guarantees. This would allow Ru to keep alive its hope of conquering Ukraine later and turning it into the "little Ru" colony/vassal that Ru imagines is still possible and desires deeply.
November 24, 2025 at 7:17 PM
Ru's primary/immediate goal in these negotiations is not territory but leaving Ukraine without credible security guarantees. This would allow Ru to keep alive its hope of conquering Ukraine later and turning it into the "little Ru" colony/vassal that Ru imagines is still possible and desires deeply.
Reposted by Simone Pelizza
🧵 Avanzate militari che non esistono: come la Russia trucca le sue mappe di guerra
www.valigiablu.it/russia-mappe...
www.valigiablu.it/russia-mappe...
Avanzate militari che non esistono: come la Russia trucca le sue mappe di guerra - Valigia Blu
Le mappe dei campi di battaglia sono uno degli strumenti di propaganda preferiti dalla Russia. Mentre quest'anno l'esercito russo è avanzato in media a passo di lumaca, le immagini spettacolari diffus...
www.valigiablu.it
November 24, 2025 at 3:01 PM
🧵 Avanzate militari che non esistono: come la Russia trucca le sue mappe di guerra
www.valigiablu.it/russia-mappe...
www.valigiablu.it/russia-mappe...
Reposted by Simone Pelizza
"This plan can be the basis of the final settlement" can mean wildly different things. To Ukraine, it means working out the details to realistically deter a 3rd Ru invasion. To Ru, it means twisting each provision to end Ukrainian sovereignty. That's why the plan won't work to end the war.
November 24, 2025 at 1:40 AM
"This plan can be the basis of the final settlement" can mean wildly different things. To Ukraine, it means working out the details to realistically deter a 3rd Ru invasion. To Ru, it means twisting each provision to end Ukrainian sovereignty. That's why the plan won't work to end the war.
Reposted by Simone Pelizza
Every previous Trump attempt to force Ukraine and then Russia into agreements involved unrealistically quick deadlines that then fell apart as the Trump administration shifted to avoid acknowledging that its own position towards Ukraine and Russia is weaker than it claims it is
November 22, 2025 at 12:53 PM
Every previous Trump attempt to force Ukraine and then Russia into agreements involved unrealistically quick deadlines that then fell apart as the Trump administration shifted to avoid acknowledging that its own position towards Ukraine and Russia is weaker than it claims it is