Tristan Snowsill
@tmsnowsill.bsky.social
Health economist at the University of Exeter. Also: stats, maths, politics, Star Wars, programming, NFL New York Jets, Formula 1, pixel art...
Reposted by Tristan Snowsill
Asylum seekers, housed in hotels in Manchester, are reaching out in their own words to address the concerns of the local community.
Please take a minute to read their letter, & share it with the people in your life who need to hear the truth about the people they are protesting.
Please take a minute to read their letter, & share it with the people in your life who need to hear the truth about the people they are protesting.
October 27, 2025 at 11:41 AM
Asylum seekers, housed in hotels in Manchester, are reaching out in their own words to address the concerns of the local community.
Please take a minute to read their letter, & share it with the people in your life who need to hear the truth about the people they are protesting.
Please take a minute to read their letter, & share it with the people in your life who need to hear the truth about the people they are protesting.
This is just ridiculous as a policy. We would think it was atrocious if someone we cared for was kicked out of another country they'd made home, especially after securing a settled legal status.
The Conservatives are not serious, they are flailing.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
The Conservatives are not serious, they are flailing.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Deporting legally settled people is ‘broadly in line’ with Tory policy, says Badenoch’s office
Conservative leader’s spokesperson sets out plan to strip the right of indefinite leave to remain from people claiming benefits
www.theguardian.com
October 22, 2025 at 7:29 PM
This is just ridiculous as a policy. We would think it was atrocious if someone we cared for was kicked out of another country they'd made home, especially after securing a settled legal status.
The Conservatives are not serious, they are flailing.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
The Conservatives are not serious, they are flailing.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
If I simulate a data generating process with known parameters, then calculate the likelihood function for a single parameter conditional on the other parameters taking their true value, what are the properties of the maximum of that conditional likelihood function as an estimator? #bayesian #stats
October 21, 2025 at 4:26 PM
Trying to sum up, in a pithy way, the challenges of modern (political) polling...
"Voting intention polling has three main weaknesses: they ask the wrong people the wrong question, and the respondents often answer a different question."
"Voting intention polling has three main weaknesses: they ask the wrong people the wrong question, and the respondents often answer a different question."
October 15, 2025 at 7:28 AM
Trying to sum up, in a pithy way, the challenges of modern (political) polling...
"Voting intention polling has three main weaknesses: they ask the wrong people the wrong question, and the respondents often answer a different question."
"Voting intention polling has three main weaknesses: they ask the wrong people the wrong question, and the respondents often answer a different question."
Reposted by Tristan Snowsill
Under UK law, a company can make £200m+ in sales and still hide its profit & loss by calling itself “small”.
That’s how PPE Medpro kept its finances secret.
A short thread on one of Britain’s daftest loopholes, the 1970s EU compromise that created it — and how to fix it.
That’s how PPE Medpro kept its finances secret.
A short thread on one of Britain’s daftest loopholes, the 1970s EU compromise that created it — and how to fix it.
October 4, 2025 at 8:34 AM
Under UK law, a company can make £200m+ in sales and still hide its profit & loss by calling itself “small”.
That’s how PPE Medpro kept its finances secret.
A short thread on one of Britain’s daftest loopholes, the 1970s EU compromise that created it — and how to fix it.
That’s how PPE Medpro kept its finances secret.
A short thread on one of Britain’s daftest loopholes, the 1970s EU compromise that created it — and how to fix it.
Who?
BBC news showing the Trump protest in London, Sylvester McCoy has just appeared on a vox pop.
September 17, 2025 at 8:57 PM
Who?
Reposted by Tristan Snowsill
This is my flag.
August 28, 2025 at 4:21 PM
This is my flag.
But presumably this is euphemistically attributable to "actuarial turnover"
Tory Party figures reveal that over 8,000 members have left since Kemi Badenoch became leader
www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/202...
www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/202...
Tory membership falls under Badenoch
Loss of 8,000 since leadership election raises questions over party’s ability to see off Reform challenge
www.telegraph.co.uk
July 24, 2025 at 6:28 AM
But presumably this is euphemistically attributable to "actuarial turnover"
The whole time we were growing up and we thought there was no way the table of the Emperor's New Clothes could actually happen in real life...
REPORTER: Gabbard has submitted a criminal referral. Who should the DOJ target?
TRUMP: It would be President Obama. And Biden was there with him ... the leader of the gang was Obama. Barack Hussein Obama. He's guilty. This is treason.
TRUMP: It would be President Obama. And Biden was there with him ... the leader of the gang was Obama. Barack Hussein Obama. He's guilty. This is treason.
July 22, 2025 at 7:05 PM
The whole time we were growing up and we thought there was no way the table of the Emperor's New Clothes could actually happen in real life...
Reposted by Tristan Snowsill
1. Kevin Gross and I just posted a new science-of-science preprint.
This one explores the looming peer review crisis. As many of you know, it's becoming significantly more difficult for journal editors to find scholars willing to serve as peer reviewers for submitted manuscripts.
This one explores the looming peer review crisis. As many of you know, it's becoming significantly more difficult for journal editors to find scholars willing to serve as peer reviewers for submitted manuscripts.
Will anyone review this paper? Screening, sorting, and the feedback cycles that imperil peer review
Scholarly publishing relies on peer review to identify the best science. Yet finding willing and qualified reviewers to evaluate manuscripts has become an increasingly challenging task, possibly even ...
arxiv.org
July 16, 2025 at 3:13 AM
1. Kevin Gross and I just posted a new science-of-science preprint.
This one explores the looming peer review crisis. As many of you know, it's becoming significantly more difficult for journal editors to find scholars willing to serve as peer reviewers for submitted manuscripts.
This one explores the looming peer review crisis. As many of you know, it's becoming significantly more difficult for journal editors to find scholars willing to serve as peer reviewers for submitted manuscripts.
I absolutely don't love Labour focusing more on not losing voters to the right (on immigration, welfare, etc.) than the left, but a lot of people say stuff like "they are losing 2× as many votes to the Greens" without realising that one vote lost to a party that can overtake you is twice as bad...
July 7, 2025 at 9:08 PM
I absolutely don't love Labour focusing more on not losing voters to the right (on immigration, welfare, etc.) than the left, but a lot of people say stuff like "they are losing 2× as many votes to the Greens" without realising that one vote lost to a party that can overtake you is twice as bad...
Wow! Project Hail Mary is coming to the big screen! I had totally missed that this was coming... Here's hoping it can live up to the book.
@chelseaparlett.bsky.social have you seen?
@chelseaparlett.bsky.social have you seen?
June 30, 2025 at 8:24 PM
Wow! Project Hail Mary is coming to the big screen! I had totally missed that this was coming... Here's hoping it can live up to the book.
@chelseaparlett.bsky.social have you seen?
@chelseaparlett.bsky.social have you seen?
My model was fitting just fine until I realised my data was only 320 of N=325.
Now it refuses to fit.
When is the next stop so I can get off this train?
#ChoiceModelling #DiscreteChoiceExperiment #stats #stata #econometrics #HealthEconomics
Now it refuses to fit.
When is the next stop so I can get off this train?
#ChoiceModelling #DiscreteChoiceExperiment #stats #stata #econometrics #HealthEconomics
June 26, 2025 at 6:53 PM
My model was fitting just fine until I realised my data was only 320 of N=325.
Now it refuses to fit.
When is the next stop so I can get off this train?
#ChoiceModelling #DiscreteChoiceExperiment #stats #stata #econometrics #HealthEconomics
Now it refuses to fit.
When is the next stop so I can get off this train?
#ChoiceModelling #DiscreteChoiceExperiment #stats #stata #econometrics #HealthEconomics
This, but also if you are one of the academics that say data are available on request and you have actually provided it on request, go you! (Next time go even further and deposit it so you don't lose it)
In my experience, "Data available on request" is a useless claim.
I've reached out to a variety of academics that state this in their paper and one of the following things happen:
- Their email address is no longer valid
- Their whereabouts is unknown
- They don't actually reply to the request
...
I've reached out to a variety of academics that state this in their paper and one of the following things happen:
- Their email address is no longer valid
- Their whereabouts is unknown
- They don't actually reply to the request
...
June 18, 2025 at 12:05 PM
This, but also if you are one of the academics that say data are available on request and you have actually provided it on request, go you! (Next time go even further and deposit it so you don't lose it)
Reposted by Tristan Snowsill
Don’t think I’ve ever muttered the words “fuck me sideways” quite so much reading a story as this one.
They Asked an A.I. Chatbot Questions. The Answers Sent Them Spiraling.
www.nytimes.com
June 13, 2025 at 12:02 PM
Don’t think I’ve ever muttered the words “fuck me sideways” quite so much reading a story as this one.
Reposted by Tristan Snowsill
The Editorial Boards of leading health economics journals are issuing a Joint Statement of Principles on Editorial Independence. In these troubled times some scholars worry their work might suffer ideological attack. We reaffirm our commitment to unfettered scholarship. Please repost.
May 21, 2025 at 2:41 PM
The Editorial Boards of leading health economics journals are issuing a Joint Statement of Principles on Editorial Independence. In these troubled times some scholars worry their work might suffer ideological attack. We reaffirm our commitment to unfettered scholarship. Please repost.
The UK government must step in to protect jobs in #HigherEducation.
Voluntary and compulsory redundancies throughout the sector.
Staff costs have been squeezed for years - the sector needs cash. Either bring back international students, raise tuition fees, or reinstate block funding... Do it fast!
Voluntary and compulsory redundancies throughout the sector.
Staff costs have been squeezed for years - the sector needs cash. Either bring back international students, raise tuition fees, or reinstate block funding... Do it fast!
May 21, 2025 at 9:51 PM
The UK government must step in to protect jobs in #HigherEducation.
Voluntary and compulsory redundancies throughout the sector.
Staff costs have been squeezed for years - the sector needs cash. Either bring back international students, raise tuition fees, or reinstate block funding... Do it fast!
Voluntary and compulsory redundancies throughout the sector.
Staff costs have been squeezed for years - the sector needs cash. Either bring back international students, raise tuition fees, or reinstate block funding... Do it fast!
There is an academic theoretical paper I keep coming back to, and every time I read it I can't work out if I'm really dumb or the authors are really dumb...
No, I will not say which paper it is!
No, I will not say which paper it is!
March 28, 2025 at 4:43 PM
There is an academic theoretical paper I keep coming back to, and every time I read it I can't work out if I'm really dumb or the authors are really dumb...
No, I will not say which paper it is!
No, I will not say which paper it is!
I do love this show. If you have time for only one Star Wars podcast a month, make it this one!
Have you listened to our new episode yet? It's sure to inspire new ideas about roads not taken in Star Wars history.
Hoth Takes #58: What If…?
Inspired by one of our favorite TV shows, we’re diving into the world of alternate universes and unexplored possibilities. Eric and Grace each pitch several ideas for “what if?” storylines that exp…
buff.ly
March 12, 2025 at 5:51 PM
I do love this show. If you have time for only one Star Wars podcast a month, make it this one!
Trump has no interest in peace, he only wants Zelenskyy to lose and Putin to win. Next step will be undoing sanctions on Russia. The US has truly switched sides, and it probably all originates from Zelenskyy not helping Trump screw Biden in 2020 election.
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/m...
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/m...
US has suspended all military aid to Ukraine, White House official says, in wake of Trump-Zelenskyy row
Decision affects ammunition, vehicles and other equipment including weapons in transit
www.theguardian.com
March 4, 2025 at 7:32 AM
Trump has no interest in peace, he only wants Zelenskyy to lose and Putin to win. Next step will be undoing sanctions on Russia. The US has truly switched sides, and it probably all originates from Zelenskyy not helping Trump screw Biden in 2020 election.
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/m...
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/m...
Rail fares in the UK don't even obey the triangle inequality, it's so frustrating!
February 27, 2025 at 1:10 PM
Rail fares in the UK don't even obey the triangle inequality, it's so frustrating!
Reposted by Tristan Snowsill
Bonus panel and hovertext here: smbc-comics.com/comic/murderer
February 21, 2025 at 10:10 PM
Bonus panel and hovertext here: smbc-comics.com/comic/murderer
Trump is a dangerous & ridiculous hypocrite.
Zelenskyy declared martial law because Ukraine was invaded. He wants to declare martial law because people have pronouns and there are undocumented migrants.
Only one of them is a dictator, and he's in the role we used to call leader of the free world.
Zelenskyy declared martial law because Ukraine was invaded. He wants to declare martial law because people have pronouns and there are undocumented migrants.
Only one of them is a dictator, and he's in the role we used to call leader of the free world.
February 19, 2025 at 4:31 PM
Trump is a dangerous & ridiculous hypocrite.
Zelenskyy declared martial law because Ukraine was invaded. He wants to declare martial law because people have pronouns and there are undocumented migrants.
Only one of them is a dictator, and he's in the role we used to call leader of the free world.
Zelenskyy declared martial law because Ukraine was invaded. He wants to declare martial law because people have pronouns and there are undocumented migrants.
Only one of them is a dictator, and he's in the role we used to call leader of the free world.
post a female character that you love
February 18, 2025 at 10:28 PM
post a female character that you love
Indeed, what they want is mob rule. Majoritarian if possible, but if not they are very happy to also be a mob-ruling minority oppressing everyone who is not them.
A democracy is more than elections. Rule of law is a perquisite, pluralism a strength.
A democracy is more than elections. Rule of law is a perquisite, pluralism a strength.
Musk, Vance & Trump all misrepresent democracy.
When they say “democracy”, they mean a free-for-all with no rule of law, where the winner takes all.
When Europe says “democracy”, we mean proportional representation, collaborative politics, citizen rights, and agreed guide rails guaranteed by law.
When they say “democracy”, they mean a free-for-all with no rule of law, where the winner takes all.
When Europe says “democracy”, we mean proportional representation, collaborative politics, citizen rights, and agreed guide rails guaranteed by law.
February 14, 2025 at 9:43 PM
Indeed, what they want is mob rule. Majoritarian if possible, but if not they are very happy to also be a mob-ruling minority oppressing everyone who is not them.
A democracy is more than elections. Rule of law is a perquisite, pluralism a strength.
A democracy is more than elections. Rule of law is a perquisite, pluralism a strength.