WTO Hikes 2025 Trade Forecast

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HAKAN YILMAZKUDAY

@yilmazkuday.bsky.social

"Understanding Interstate Trade Patterns" is available at the Journal of International Economics: doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2...

by Thomas Piketty

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Thomas Piketty

@thomaspiketty.bsky.social

Rethinking world trade
When setting tariffs, Trump has followed a narrowly nationalist and rather chaotic logic. The opposite approach is needed: Tariffs should be set based on universal and predictable principles.
www.lemonde.fr/blog/piketty...

Rethinking world trade

Confronted with the impact of Donald Trump's policies, Europe – like other parts of the world – has no choice but to fundamentally rethink its trade rules. To put it plainly: If Europe does not urgent...

www.lemonde.fr

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by Paul Krugman

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Substack

Why Aren’t We Partying Like It’s 1999?

Fear, not hope, permeates today’s technology hype Economic reality has a habit of throwing you curveballs — events you didn’t anticipate when making your predictions. Specifically, most economists, myself included, expected tariffs to be the big economic story of 2025. After all, in just a few months Donald Trump has reversed 90 years of pro-trade U.S. policy, sending average tariffs to their

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by Yoto V. Yotov

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by Hakan Yilmazkuday

108%

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HAKAN YILMAZKUDAY

@yilmazkuday.bsky.social

Global price puzzles? Learn how trade and wages shape long-term price differences: www.sciencedirect.com/scien... #GlobalEconomy #Pricing

by World Trade Organization

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World Trade Organization

@wto.org

AI goods and frontloading lift world trade in 2025 but outlook dims for 2026 #WTOStats #GlobalTrade #WTOPublications

AI goods and frontloading lift world trade in 2025 but outlook dims for 2026

Global merchandise trade outpaced expectations in the first half of 2025, driven by increased spending on AI-related products, a surge in North American imports ahead of tariff hikes, and strong trade among the rest of the world. In response, WTO economists raised the 2025 merchandise trade growth forecast to 2.4% (up from 0.9% in August). However, the 2026 projection has been lowered to 0.5% (from 1.8%). Global services exports growth is expected to slow from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026.

dlvr.it

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by Ian Bremmer

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by Hakan Yilmazkuday

108%

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HAKAN YILMAZKUDAY

@yilmazkuday.bsky.social

Trade deficits are driven by varying factors across nations, demanding customized policy solutions. www.sciencedirect.com/scien...

Reposted by: Lars P. Feld

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by Markus Goldstein

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Markus Goldstein

@markusgold.bsky.social

In a new blog @cgdev.org colleagues and I add up the effects of changes in foreign economic policy (aid, tariffs, remittance taxes)- which countries are the most heavily hit and which are least - some surprises:
www.cgdev.org/blog/who-bea...

Who Bears the Burden? Tracking the Global Impact of Recent US Foreign Policy Shifts

Since January, the United States has adopted a range of foreign economic policies with negative impacts on the rest of the world, including higher tariffs on exports, taxes on remittances, and reducti...

www.cgdev.org

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by Hakan Yilmazkuday

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HAKAN YILMAZKUDAY

@yilmazkuday.bsky.social

Trade policy uncertainty causes significant long-run US stock price falls. doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2025....

by Holger Hestermeyer

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Holger Hestermeyer

@hhesterm.bsky.social

The domino effect of the us market closing and the goods once going there looking for other markets. Things will get worse.

Euronews @euronews.com · 7h

EU tariffs on steel imports will be doubled to 50% beyond a reduced quota, compared to the volumes currently entering duty-free.

European Commission wields protectionist powers to shield EU steel

EU tariffs on steel imports will be doubled to 50% beyond a reduced quota, compared to the volumes currently entering duty-free.

l.euronews.com

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by Vladimir Kogan

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by Simon Lester

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Simon Lester

@simonlester.com

I can imagine WTO complaints being filed by multiple countries against these tariffs. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Graham Lanktree @glanktree.bsky.social · 2d

‘Worse than Trump’s tariffs’: EU steel protections are poised to pummel British industry

www.politico.eu/article/dona...

‘Worse than Trump’s tariffs’: EU steel protections are poised to pummel British industry

The EU is preparing to reduce foreign steel quotas by almost half as part of new measures set to be proposed next week.

www.politico.eu

2

by Du Toit

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Peter du Toit

@peterdutoit.com

US drags down global renewable energy growth for forecast period 2025-2030

Not only have they added more GHG pollution to the atmosphere than any other nation on earth, they are now sabotaging renewable energy.

Hope the world leaves them behind!

Source: iea.blob.core.window...

Global renewable growth forecast revised down slightly

Renewable capacity additions forecast revisions for 2025-2030

United States showing a ~45% decline

4 20 53

Reposted by: Simon Lester

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Kirsten Ostermann

@kirstenostermann.bsky.social

The proposed measure is fully WTO compliant. Upon receipt of a mandate from the Council, the EU will swiftly engage with affected EU trading partners under the Article XXVIII GATT procedure regarding this change to the EU's WTO tariffs, with a view to offering them country specific allocations.