EPA, DVOA, and Total Points all evaluate QBs by the overall success of offenses on their dropbacks, and I think most people would have assumed Bo Nix owes a bigger share of his offensive success to Sean Payton than say Josh Allen owes to Joe Brady.
My top takeaway is we underrate sack avoidance.
My top takeaway is we underrate sack avoidance.
Our all-encompassing player value stat has Broncos QB Bo Nix as the highest valued player in the NFL in 2025.
We investigated, and we found why our statistical system likes him so much
On a QB and also on how stats work ...
www.sportsinfosolutions.com/2026/01/14/w...
We investigated, and we found why our statistical system likes him so much
On a QB and also on how stats work ...
www.sportsinfosolutions.com/2026/01/14/w...
Why Does Our Player Value Stat Rank Bo Nix No. 1?
Nix doesn’t rate well across most statistical measures. So what’s going on here?
www.sportsinfosolutions.com
January 15, 2026 at 6:41 PM
EPA, DVOA, and Total Points all evaluate QBs by the overall success of offenses on their dropbacks, and I think most people would have assumed Bo Nix owes a bigger share of his offensive success to Sean Payton than say Josh Allen owes to Joe Brady.
My top takeaway is we underrate sack avoidance.
My top takeaway is we underrate sack avoidance.
My penis is NOT small. Statistically speaking it's actually quite average, per DVOA
January 15, 2026 at 6:31 PM
My penis is NOT small. Statistically speaking it's actually quite average, per DVOA
Panthers Defense under Evero:
2023:
Points allowed 29th
Yards allowed 29th
2024:
Points allowed 32nd
Yards allowed 32nd
2025:
Def DVOA 22nd
2023:
Points allowed 29th
Yards allowed 29th
2024:
Points allowed 32nd
Yards allowed 32nd
2025:
Def DVOA 22nd
Steelers request HC interview with Ejiro Evero
Steelers request HC interview with Ejiro Evero
Steelers requested an interview with Panthers defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero for their head coaching vacancy.
dlvr.it
January 15, 2026 at 4:16 PM
Panthers Defense under Evero:
2023:
Points allowed 29th
Yards allowed 29th
2024:
Points allowed 32nd
Yards allowed 32nd
2025:
Def DVOA 22nd
2023:
Points allowed 29th
Yards allowed 29th
2024:
Points allowed 32nd
Yards allowed 32nd
2025:
Def DVOA 22nd
DVOA Preview of Seahawks-49ers from @brykno.bsky.social. Can anybody believe in Sam Darnold with the Seahawks offense fading? Does it matter when the 49ers are so hurt?
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pre...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pre...
DVOA Preview: 49ers vs. Seahawks
The Seahawks offense is hurting since Week 10, but the 49ers team is literally hurting everywhere, down so many good players.
ftnfantasy.com
January 15, 2026 at 3:29 PM
DVOA Preview of Seahawks-49ers from @brykno.bsky.social. Can anybody believe in Sam Darnold with the Seahawks offense fading? Does it matter when the 49ers are so hurt?
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pre...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pre...
How on earth is the Broncos defense 28th against passes to the right side? 5th against passes to the left and 3rd against the middle.. This makes absolutely no sense.. ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pre...
DVOA Preview: Bills vs. Broncos
The Broncos match up with the Bills very well, but so too do the Bills match up with the Broncos. Who will come out on top?
ftnfantasy.com
January 15, 2026 at 2:17 PM
How on earth is the Broncos defense 28th against passes to the right side? 5th against passes to the left and 3rd against the middle.. This makes absolutely no sense.. ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pre...
Here's the first of four DVOA previews for the Divisional Round, looking at the Bills and Broncos. Some really interesting matchups where strength meets strength... or strength meets weakness.
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pre...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pre...
DVOA Preview: Bills vs. Broncos
The Broncos match up with the Bills very well, but so too do the Bills match up with the Broncos. Who will come out on top?
ftnfantasy.com
January 15, 2026 at 2:09 PM
Here's the first of four DVOA previews for the Divisional Round, looking at the Bills and Broncos. Some really interesting matchups where strength meets strength... or strength meets weakness.
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pre...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pre...
Ok DVOA doesn’t matter is a direct attack
January 15, 2026 at 3:19 AM
Ok DVOA doesn’t matter is a direct attack
And he said they are paper tigers and DVOA doesn’t matter
January 15, 2026 at 2:12 AM
And he said they are paper tigers and DVOA doesn’t matter
Saw a great stat today. In 2 high coverage, Buffalo is number 1 defense in DVOA or something. Bo Nix is something awful against 2 high.
Buffalo might be lucky to score 23. But I think Denver will be hard pressed to score more than 20.
Buffalo might be lucky to score 23. But I think Denver will be hard pressed to score more than 20.
January 15, 2026 at 1:43 AM
Saw a great stat today. In 2 high coverage, Buffalo is number 1 defense in DVOA or something. Bo Nix is something awful against 2 high.
Buffalo might be lucky to score 23. But I think Denver will be hard pressed to score more than 20.
Buffalo might be lucky to score 23. But I think Denver will be hard pressed to score more than 20.
Nobody knows what DVOA means. But it’s provocative, it gets the people going!
January 14, 2026 at 8:45 PM
Nobody knows what DVOA means. But it’s provocative, it gets the people going!
This is a pinned post for people new to my work.
DVOA explainer: ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-exp...
Latest DVOA numbers: ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te...
Stats content on FTN: ftnfantasy.com/stats/articles
DVOA explainer: ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-exp...
Latest DVOA numbers: ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te...
Stats content on FTN: ftnfantasy.com/stats/articles
DVOA Explainer
An explanation of DVOA, DYAR, and Aaron Schatz's other advanced stats.
ftnfantasy.com
January 14, 2026 at 8:29 PM
This is a pinned post for people new to my work.
DVOA explainer: ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-exp...
Latest DVOA numbers: ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te...
Stats content on FTN: ftnfantasy.com/stats/articles
DVOA explainer: ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-exp...
Latest DVOA numbers: ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te...
Stats content on FTN: ftnfantasy.com/stats/articles
But the posts, drags, slants, and screens that Thomas ran less in 2025 were many of his most efficient routes in 2024 by DVOA.
I'm sure Coen has started to adjust to this. But I also think BTJ could shift back to his more successful rookie route tree in a WR room with different skill sets. (2/2)
I'm sure Coen has started to adjust to this. But I also think BTJ could shift back to his more successful rookie route tree in a WR room with different skill sets. (2/2)
January 14, 2026 at 8:23 PM
But the posts, drags, slants, and screens that Thomas ran less in 2025 were many of his most efficient routes in 2024 by DVOA.
I'm sure Coen has started to adjust to this. But I also think BTJ could shift back to his more successful rookie route tree in a WR room with different skill sets. (2/2)
I'm sure Coen has started to adjust to this. But I also think BTJ could shift back to his more successful rookie route tree in a WR room with different skill sets. (2/2)
Some remarkable stats as I prepare playoff previews from the @ftnfantasy.com StatsHub.
Bills defense in 2-high: -23.1% DVOA (2)
Bills defense in 1-high: 33.2% DVOA (29)
Bo Nix vs. 2-high: -6.8% DVOA (22)
Bo Nix vs. 1-high: 9.5% DVOA (13)
Bills defense in 2-high: -23.1% DVOA (2)
Bills defense in 1-high: 33.2% DVOA (29)
Bo Nix vs. 2-high: -6.8% DVOA (22)
Bo Nix vs. 1-high: 9.5% DVOA (13)
January 14, 2026 at 3:32 PM
Some remarkable stats as I prepare playoff previews from the @ftnfantasy.com StatsHub.
Bills defense in 2-high: -23.1% DVOA (2)
Bills defense in 1-high: 33.2% DVOA (29)
Bo Nix vs. 2-high: -6.8% DVOA (22)
Bo Nix vs. 1-high: 9.5% DVOA (13)
Bills defense in 2-high: -23.1% DVOA (2)
Bills defense in 1-high: 33.2% DVOA (29)
Bo Nix vs. 2-high: -6.8% DVOA (22)
Bo Nix vs. 1-high: 9.5% DVOA (13)
Ranking 2025 NFL rookie classes: Teams with most production
Aaron SchatzJan 14, 2026, 06:05 AM ET Close Aaron Schatz is an NFL analyst for ESPN.com. He has more than 20 years of experience working in NFL analytics and is the creator of the DVOA and DYAR metric. He also serves as the Chief…
Aaron SchatzJan 14, 2026, 06:05 AM ET Close Aaron Schatz is an NFL analyst for ESPN.com. He has more than 20 years of experience working in NFL analytics and is the creator of the DVOA and DYAR metric. He also serves as the Chief…
Ranking 2025 NFL rookie classes: Teams with most production
Aaron SchatzJan 14, 2026, 06:05 AM ET Close Aaron Schatz is an NFL analyst for ESPN.com. He has more than 20 years of experience working in NFL analytics and is the creator of the DVOA and DYAR metric. He also serves as the Chief Analytics Officer at FTN Network. There are always high expectations put on incoming NFL rookies to help change the franchise and fill holes.
virtualnews360.com
January 14, 2026 at 2:00 PM
Ranking 2025 NFL rookie classes: Teams with most production
Aaron SchatzJan 14, 2026, 06:05 AM ET Close Aaron Schatz is an NFL analyst for ESPN.com. He has more than 20 years of experience working in NFL analytics and is the creator of the DVOA and DYAR metric. He also serves as the Chief…
Aaron SchatzJan 14, 2026, 06:05 AM ET Close Aaron Schatz is an NFL analyst for ESPN.com. He has more than 20 years of experience working in NFL analytics and is the creator of the DVOA and DYAR metric. He also serves as the Chief…
I think looking back at the Tomlin era, the defining game, at least to me, is going to be the 2008 AFC Championship. One of the hardest hitting games ever played, and one that would be soon after, a last of its kind. 2 Defenses at the absolute zenith of their power (T10 All time Defensive DVOA)
January 14, 2026 at 10:58 AM
I think looking back at the Tomlin era, the defining game, at least to me, is going to be the 2008 AFC Championship. One of the hardest hitting games ever played, and one that would be soon after, a last of its kind. 2 Defenses at the absolute zenith of their power (T10 All time Defensive DVOA)
📊 Week 19 DVOA : Seahawks #1 & Texans' Steelers demolition vaults them past NE
@aaronschatz.com's full ratings 👇
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-19-...
@aaronschatz.com's full ratings 👇
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-19-...
Week 19 DVOA Ratings: Texans Top AFC
We've updated DVOA with Monday Night Football, and the Texans pass New England as the top team in the AFC.
ftnfantasy.com
January 13, 2026 at 10:34 PM
📊 Week 19 DVOA : Seahawks #1 & Texans' Steelers demolition vaults them past NE
@aaronschatz.com's full ratings 👇
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-19-...
@aaronschatz.com's full ratings 👇
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-19-...
The Texans had 6 games against teams in the top 10 for passing DVOA. These were the average stats:
19-31, 229 yards. 1.3 TD, 0.8 INT, 2.8 sacks
(This includes Mac Jones for SF and a surprisingly good Riley Leonard in Week 18.)
19-31, 229 yards. 1.3 TD, 0.8 INT, 2.8 sacks
(This includes Mac Jones for SF and a surprisingly good Riley Leonard in Week 18.)
January 13, 2026 at 9:17 PM
The Texans had 6 games against teams in the top 10 for passing DVOA. These were the average stats:
19-31, 229 yards. 1.3 TD, 0.8 INT, 2.8 sacks
(This includes Mac Jones for SF and a surprisingly good Riley Leonard in Week 18.)
19-31, 229 yards. 1.3 TD, 0.8 INT, 2.8 sacks
(This includes Mac Jones for SF and a surprisingly good Riley Leonard in Week 18.)
@minakimes.bsky.social did you get a Paul Hollywood handshake? Did you have to explain DVOA to Prue?
January 13, 2026 at 5:58 PM
@minakimes.bsky.social did you get a Paul Hollywood handshake? Did you have to explain DVOA to Prue?
Meanwhile, the DC from the 2021 team is now the head coach of the Seahawks, who just finished first in the NFL in defensive DVOA and fewest points allowed.
Everyone with skin in the same knew that Stalions was irrelevant and they have been proven 100% correct.
Everyone with skin in the same knew that Stalions was irrelevant and they have been proven 100% correct.
January 13, 2026 at 5:36 PM
Meanwhile, the DC from the 2021 team is now the head coach of the Seahawks, who just finished first in the NFL in defensive DVOA and fewest points allowed.
Everyone with skin in the same knew that Stalions was irrelevant and they have been proven 100% correct.
Everyone with skin in the same knew that Stalions was irrelevant and they have been proven 100% correct.
Here's a little playoff preview tidbit: the Broncos and Bills were the top 2 teams this year in DVOA against running backs as receivers.
January 13, 2026 at 4:30 PM
Here's a little playoff preview tidbit: the Broncos and Bills were the top 2 teams this year in DVOA against running backs as receivers.
Don't you wish you could just talk about DVOA? But nay. The absurdity of today's world compels us all to say something, even if only as a sanity check.
January 13, 2026 at 4:18 PM
Don't you wish you could just talk about DVOA? But nay. The absurdity of today's world compels us all to say something, even if only as a sanity check.
I want to say that early on in its existence, you found that weighted DVOA was less predictive than full-season. Do you still find differences in their predictive success?
I could be misremembering
I could be misremembering
January 13, 2026 at 3:44 PM
I want to say that early on in its existence, you found that weighted DVOA was less predictive than full-season. Do you still find differences in their predictive success?
I could be misremembering
I could be misremembering
New updated DVOA ratings including Monday Night Football, as the Texans move past the Patriots in weighted DVOA to sit atop the AFC.
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-19-...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-19-...
Week 19 DVOA Ratings: Texans Top AFC
We've updated DVOA with Monday Night Football, and the Texans pass New England as the top team in the AFC.
ftnfantasy.com
January 13, 2026 at 3:27 PM
New updated DVOA ratings including Monday Night Football, as the Texans move past the Patriots in weighted DVOA to sit atop the AFC.
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-19-...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-19-...
DVOA Playoff Odds are now updated. We have Buffalo much lower than the market... Are we underestimating the power of Josh Allen?
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
NFL Playoff Picture: Odds to Win Super Bowl LX
NFL playoff picture odds to win Super Bowl LX based on DVOA and 25,000 weekly simulations.
ftnfantasy.com
January 13, 2026 at 2:15 PM
DVOA Playoff Odds are now updated. We have Buffalo much lower than the market... Are we underestimating the power of Josh Allen?
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
My (mostly tongue in cheek) conspiracy theory is that Aaron Schatz, a noted Pats fan, backward engineered the DVOA formula to make sure it favored the Pats dynasty that was going on when he came up with it.
January 13, 2026 at 1:28 PM
My (mostly tongue in cheek) conspiracy theory is that Aaron Schatz, a noted Pats fan, backward engineered the DVOA formula to make sure it favored the Pats dynasty that was going on when he came up with it.