Simon J.
reactorfour.bsky.social
Simon J.
@reactorfour.bsky.social
94 followers 180 following 100 posts
Traveller.
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Reposted by Simon J.
if democrats are serious about winning they need to learn from tonight and convert to islam
Reposted by Simon J.
i can't stop thinking about this video. how the campaign started w/ Mamdani as an unknown basically...just like out reporting on the political apathy in 2024. figuring out why people felt jaded. and then working to bring about the opposite. beyond remarkable www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Tur...
Back on Fordham Road
YouTube video by Zohran Mamdani for NYC
www.youtube.com
Predictions are hard, specially about the future. ~Nate Silver, deep down.
Once more, for old times’ sake
Reposted by Simon J.
Regardless of ideology, lot to be said for candidates who haven't' been at this for 20+ years already and who came up in a post-2016 media and partisanship environment.
i want to repeat this: mamdani and spanberger have run similar campaigns tailored to their respective electorates and it is maddening to watch political journalists attempt to create some broad contrast where none exist
the other thing about this is that there is no reason to pit these candidates against each other? each are good fits for their respective electorates and each shows the value of vigorous campaigns focused on the stated material problems of voters.
Reposted by Simon J.
Looks like the Dems will pick up 12 seats in the VA House of Delegates, which will go from 51-49 to 63-37 D-R. That's an honestly shocking result.
My memory is 2021 was also a big polling miss (favoring the GOP) even though Ds ended up winning.
A lot of those VA Dem voters are likely furloughed federal workers that know this.
This is why Chuck has NO REASON to come back to the table. Let them twist. If you're coming back with wins this big during a shutdown, the people know where their bread is buttered. Don't throw them a lifeline. These aren't tiny margin wins. They're blowouts.
Trump seeing the GOP getting its ass kicked in VA and NJ and reacting by doubling down on asserting his power and forcing the senate to nuke the filibuster would be perfect.

www.axios.com/2025/11/04/t...
Scoop: Trump readying "living hell" for GOP senators over nuking filibuster
"He will call them at three o'clock in the morning," one adviser told Axios.
www.axios.com
Reposted by Simon J.
Not only is Jay Jones winning, but Del. Carrie Coyner, the Republican who shared his text messages with National Review, is currently losing her seat. youtu.be/OlqRGJeiUiw?...
Tell Tell Tell (Stop Snitchin') (Explicit)
YouTube video by Project Pat - Topic
youtu.be
Let’s get the NYT viz team to build the “neighbor-meter” to project the house next year.
Pretty uniform swings occurring so far but the biggest ones appear to be in the suburbs. If you're a Republican who can see your neighbor's house from your kitchen you should retire.
Even without her weaknesses, the last few elections in NJ have been pretty close and trending in the wrong direction. Big poll miss in the last Gov election.

Pleasantly surprised to see this.
The @hankgreen.bsky.social bump, folks.
Decision Desk has called both of Georgia's statewide races, for public service commissioner, for Democrats.

If confirmed, this would be a really huge win for Democrats:

It'd be their first statewide win in any non-federal race since 2006!
Will need a postscript on the next edition
at the cost of their own political futures which is what starmer is accomplishing.
I don’t understand why anyone pays attention to these markets.

They run on the worst conventional vibes.
Behold, the expert predictive quality of election betting markets. They can tell you a thing will happen right when everyone else figures out it will!
Yeah there are usually reliable.
Reposted by Simon J.
If your electoral strategy is to be a milder, less authentic version of your opponents you’re just condemning yourself to both lose elections and allow them move them further to the right.
Thing thing about Matty and what makes this so boring is that it is all just that his personal priors laundered through electoralism
Reposted by Simon J.
i want to repeat this: mamdani and spanberger have run similar campaigns tailored to their respective electorates and it is maddening to watch political journalists attempt to create some broad contrast where none exist
the other thing about this is that there is no reason to pit these candidates against each other? each are good fits for their respective electorates and each shows the value of vigorous campaigns focused on the stated material problems of voters.
More judges should be quoting the lies that Trump tells the public to avoid political blowback (contradicting what his own lawyers are telling the courts), take them at face value, and rule accordingly, as in this case:
ICYMI, Trump posted that he wanted to fund SNAP "as soon as possible . . . [i]f we are given the appropriate legal direction."

So a federal judge said "here's the legal direction" and ordered either full payment by today or partial by Wednesday.

storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
(I know from your videos that you have multiple cameras but seem to remember the fox photo was also taken with a Leica)