@backcast.bsky.social
Geo-politics | technology | strategy | intelligence
Reposted
French prosecutors say Russia-linked tanker 'Grinch' under investigation after interception in western Mediterranean.
Russian ‘shadow fleet' tanker diverted to French port by naval forces
French prosecutors say Russia-linked tanker 'Grinch' under investigation after interception in western Mediterranean.
www.aljazeera.com
January 24, 2026 at 3:00 AM
French prosecutors say Russia-linked tanker 'Grinch' under investigation after interception in western Mediterranean.
Reposted
China’s dominance of global drone supply chains has become strategically indispensable to both Russia and Ukraine, revealing a new form of power rooted in civilian technology.
China’s Drone War in Ukraine
China’s dominance of global drone supply chains has become strategically indispensable to both Russia and Ukraine, revealing a new form of power rooted in civilian technology.
buff.ly
January 23, 2026 at 11:30 PM
China’s dominance of global drone supply chains has become strategically indispensable to both Russia and Ukraine, revealing a new form of power rooted in civilian technology.
Reposted
🧵 @jburnmurdoch.ft.com is spot on about the conditions in his FT piece. Liberal democracy held it together thanks to growth, good demographics, and the promise of a better future. Those days are gone, and that’s the "why" behind the erosion. However...
Democratic politicians have, though, pursued growth in GDP at the expense of other values. One response to @jburnmurdoch.ft.com pessimistic scenario is refocus on those values, combined with egalitarianism, sufficiency and quality of life. Not "it's the economy, stupid" but "it's the the society"
Is liberal democracy in terminal decline?
The old system worked under a set of conditions that are no longer present
www.ft.com
January 23, 2026 at 9:07 AM
🧵 @jburnmurdoch.ft.com is spot on about the conditions in his FT piece. Liberal democracy held it together thanks to growth, good demographics, and the promise of a better future. Those days are gone, and that’s the "why" behind the erosion. However...
Reposted
Recent reports suggest that hundreds of Africans have been lured to Russia under false job promises and subsequently sent to the front line in Ukraine after receiving only a few days of basic training.
Young Africans Are Being Lured Into Russia’s War Machine
The Kremlin may be using Africans as suicide bombers in Ukraine, reports suggest.
foreignpolicy.com
January 24, 2026 at 12:30 AM
Recent reports suggest that hundreds of Africans have been lured to Russia under false job promises and subsequently sent to the front line in Ukraine after receiving only a few days of basic training.
Reposted
"I think Xi Jinping, when he looks at the world around him, sees a place beset by threat, especially from the West."
James Kynge on the worldview guiding China's foreign policy.
Watch in full➡️ https://bit.ly/4qwKdJ7
James Kynge on the worldview guiding China's foreign policy.
Watch in full➡️ https://bit.ly/4qwKdJ7
January 23, 2026 at 7:00 PM
"I think Xi Jinping, when he looks at the world around him, sees a place beset by threat, especially from the West."
James Kynge on the worldview guiding China's foreign policy.
Watch in full➡️ https://bit.ly/4qwKdJ7
James Kynge on the worldview guiding China's foreign policy.
Watch in full➡️ https://bit.ly/4qwKdJ7
Reposted
NEW: The PLA flew a surveillance drone through Taiwanese airspace over Pratas on January 17, possibly marking the first confirmed PLA violation of Taiwanese territorial airspace in decades.
Read the full January 23, China & Taiwan Update: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanU...
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️
Read the full January 23, China & Taiwan Update: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanU...
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️
January 23, 2026 at 7:36 PM
NEW: The PLA flew a surveillance drone through Taiwanese airspace over Pratas on January 17, possibly marking the first confirmed PLA violation of Taiwanese territorial airspace in decades.
Read the full January 23, China & Taiwan Update: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanU...
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️
Read the full January 23, China & Taiwan Update: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanU...
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️
Reposted
Got to read the whole text as @ldfreedman.bsky.social kindly sent it to me (thank you!).
I agree with a lot, especially that Europe is capable of standing up to Trump and defending itself.
However, I still disagree that this is just continuation of a longer transition and rebalancing.
I agree with a lot, especially that Europe is capable of standing up to Trump and defending itself.
However, I still disagree that this is just continuation of a longer transition and rebalancing.
Read only as far as it went before paywall, so don’t know how the text concludes. But no, it’s not only a rebalancing of the relationship.
Americans ignore it at their peril that Europe has been fooled twice, and the shame is on us. We were willing to forgive and move on after Trump 1, but not now.
Americans ignore it at their peril that Europe has been fooled twice, and the shame is on us. We were willing to forgive and move on after Trump 1, but not now.
Latest post tries to catch up with the back and forth on Greenland. I argue that rather this being a rupture (as Mark Carney suggested) the European response shows a transition to a rebalanced transatlantic relationship with diminished US power. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...?
January 23, 2026 at 7:31 PM
Got to read the whole text as @ldfreedman.bsky.social kindly sent it to me (thank you!).
I agree with a lot, especially that Europe is capable of standing up to Trump and defending itself.
However, I still disagree that this is just continuation of a longer transition and rebalancing.
I agree with a lot, especially that Europe is capable of standing up to Trump and defending itself.
However, I still disagree that this is just continuation of a longer transition and rebalancing.
Reposted
“The Chinese view on Taiwan changed significantly in 2025…The fundamental driver of this new assessment is…the perception that President has little interest in defending Taiwan militarily. China sees an opportunity that may not arise again down the road.” www.foreignaffairs.com/china/perfec...
A Perfect Storm for Taiwan in 2026?
How a convergence of factors could tempt Beijing to act.
www.foreignaffairs.com
January 23, 2026 at 8:13 PM
“The Chinese view on Taiwan changed significantly in 2025…The fundamental driver of this new assessment is…the perception that President has little interest in defending Taiwan militarily. China sees an opportunity that may not arise again down the road.” www.foreignaffairs.com/china/perfec...
Reposted
When U.S. reliability is questioned, China does not need to push hard. It only needs to let uncertainty spread.
Trump, Uncertainty, and China’s Anti-Alliance Strategy
President Donald Trump’s return to the White House has revived a familiar anxiety across Europe and Taiwan: How reliable is the United States when its
warontherocks.com
January 23, 2026 at 12:30 AM
When U.S. reliability is questioned, China does not need to push hard. It only needs to let uncertainty spread.
Reposted
Intel puts consumer chip production on back burner as datacenters make a run on Xeons
Intel puts consumer chip production on back burner as datacenters make a run on Xeons
CFO David Zinsner says foundry capacity should improve starting in Q2
If you notice PC prices creeping up over the next few months, the rising cost of memory won’t be the only reason, because on Thursday Intel said it is reallocating foundry capacity from client chips to meet surging demand for Xeon processors used in AI servers.…
dlvr.it
January 23, 2026 at 1:45 AM
Intel puts consumer chip production on back burner as datacenters make a run on Xeons
Reposted
🔴Trump’s Greenland Delusion Runs Aground in Davos
For all his attempted bullying, taunts and threats, Trump’s delusional Davos speech revealed a man who is far weaker than he appears, argues @alexhh.bsky.social bylinetimes.com/2026/01/21/d...
For all his attempted bullying, taunts and threats, Trump’s delusional Davos speech revealed a man who is far weaker than he appears, argues @alexhh.bsky.social bylinetimes.com/2026/01/21/d...
Trump's Greenland Delusion Runs Aground in Davos
For all his attempted bullying, taunts and threats, Trump's delusional Davos speech revealed a man who is far weaker than he appears, argues Alexandra Hall Hall
bylinetimes.com
January 21, 2026 at 4:41 PM
🔴Trump’s Greenland Delusion Runs Aground in Davos
For all his attempted bullying, taunts and threats, Trump’s delusional Davos speech revealed a man who is far weaker than he appears, argues @alexhh.bsky.social bylinetimes.com/2026/01/21/d...
For all his attempted bullying, taunts and threats, Trump’s delusional Davos speech revealed a man who is far weaker than he appears, argues @alexhh.bsky.social bylinetimes.com/2026/01/21/d...
Reposted
New evidence is reshaping how we understand military decision-making during the Tiananmen crisis.
Obedience, Ambiguity, and Punishment: The Chinese Military at Tiananmen Revisited
As this article goes to press, security officials in Iran are carefully weighing their options on how to dole out violence to preserve an authoritarian
warontherocks.com
January 21, 2026 at 10:15 AM
New evidence is reshaping how we understand military decision-making during the Tiananmen crisis.
Reposted
Take a look at The Telegraph's view on Trump. Every single 'columnist' (I use the term loosely) utterly wrong and totally disproven. Never read again.
January 21, 2026 at 9:58 AM
Take a look at The Telegraph's view on Trump. Every single 'columnist' (I use the term loosely) utterly wrong and totally disproven. Never read again.
Reposted
France has called for NATO to hold a military exercise in Greenland and indicated it is “ready to contribute," according to a statement from President Emmanuel Macron’s office.
Follow our live blog for updates 👇 #[politi.co/4qx13Yn
Follow our live blog for updates 👇 #[politi.co/4qx13Yn
January 21, 2026 at 11:06 AM
France has called for NATO to hold a military exercise in Greenland and indicated it is “ready to contribute," according to a statement from President Emmanuel Macron’s office.
Follow our live blog for updates 👇 #[politi.co/4qx13Yn
Follow our live blog for updates 👇 #[politi.co/4qx13Yn
Reposted
Some perspective: The S&P opened down -1.3% on Trump's Greenland saber-rattling. That's $750 billion of wealth destroyed -- roughly equal to estimates of the value of Greenland.
And so ~in dollar terms~ his shenanigans have already cost the US one Greenland, and we've got nothing to show for it.
And so ~in dollar terms~ his shenanigans have already cost the US one Greenland, and we've got nothing to show for it.
January 20, 2026 at 2:48 PM
Some perspective: The S&P opened down -1.3% on Trump's Greenland saber-rattling. That's $750 billion of wealth destroyed -- roughly equal to estimates of the value of Greenland.
And so ~in dollar terms~ his shenanigans have already cost the US one Greenland, and we've got nothing to show for it.
And so ~in dollar terms~ his shenanigans have already cost the US one Greenland, and we've got nothing to show for it.
Reposted
Just starting now.
Watch via the link below
Watch via the link below
THIS EVENING | What does Trump mean for relations between the UK and Europe, and the rest of the world?
Sir Simon Fraser, Fiona Hill and Anand Menon will join us to discuss the impact of Trump's presidency on the UK and Europe
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/trump-...
Sir Simon Fraser, Fiona Hill and Anand Menon will join us to discuss the impact of Trump's presidency on the UK and Europe
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/trump-...
January 20, 2026 at 6:32 PM
Just starting now.
Watch via the link below
Watch via the link below
Reposted
This is quite possibly, and worryingly, the only interesting thing to have ever come out of Davos in my adult life.
In a speech to the World Economic Forum, Mark Carney says middle powers such as Canada must accept that the rules-based international order is effectively dead, and great power rivalry with is here to stay. Key excerpt:
January 20, 2026 at 4:06 PM
This is quite possibly, and worryingly, the only interesting thing to have ever come out of Davos in my adult life.
Reposted
Well said.
“Greenland is to Trump as Ukraine is to Putin”
“The crisis is not impending, it is here”
Fiona Hill at our event this evening
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/trump-...
“The crisis is not impending, it is here”
Fiona Hill at our event this evening
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/trump-...
What does Trump mean for relations between the UK and Europe, and the rest of the world? | Institute for Government
Sir Simon Fraser, Fiona Hill and Anand Menon join us to discuss the impact of Trump's presidency on the UK and Europe
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
January 20, 2026 at 7:02 PM
Well said.
Reposted
Key point from Fiona Hill at @instituteforgovernment.org.uk event this evening about the Trump presidency, both domestic and foreign: “This is not a normal time and we should not rationalise and analyse this into normalcy”
January 20, 2026 at 7:22 PM
Key point from Fiona Hill at @instituteforgovernment.org.uk event this evening about the Trump presidency, both domestic and foreign: “This is not a normal time and we should not rationalise and analyse this into normalcy”
Reposted
In an era of great power rivalry, Canada is choosing to be principled and pragmatic. To name reality, to act together, and to build what we claim to believe in.
January 20, 2026 at 7:43 PM
In an era of great power rivalry, Canada is choosing to be principled and pragmatic. To name reality, to act together, and to build what we claim to believe in.
Reposted
"The United States faces the most dangerous international circumstances since the end of World War II, and perhaps in its history," writes expert Robert D. Blackwill.
In a new report, he proposes an alternative American grand strategy: resolute global leadership. Read more:
In a new report, he proposes an alternative American grand strategy: resolute global leadership. Read more:
America Revived | Council on Foreign Relations
Executive Summary The United States faces the most dangerous international circumstances since the end of World War II, and perhaps in its history. An ever more formidable, authoritarian China remains determined to replace the United States as the leadi...
www.cfr.org
January 20, 2026 at 8:32 PM
"The United States faces the most dangerous international circumstances since the end of World War II, and perhaps in its history," writes expert Robert D. Blackwill.
In a new report, he proposes an alternative American grand strategy: resolute global leadership. Read more:
In a new report, he proposes an alternative American grand strategy: resolute global leadership. Read more:
Reposted
This attempt by the Trump administration to interfere in the trial of Marine Le Pen last year is shocking.
Amazing moment on French TV. A French judge explains how Trump sent people from the US Embassy basically trying to intimidate her during Le Pen's trial for embezzlement - something they've done to other judges around the world.
January 20, 2026 at 6:41 PM
This attempt by the Trump administration to interfere in the trial of Marine Le Pen last year is shocking.
Reposted
After PM Mark Carney’s first official visit to China, both sides will now be busy figuring out how to move forward all the MOUs and refreshed "strategic partnership". I wish them luck. Every new government, not just in Canada, thinks it can do China better than the last one. History says otherwise.
January 19, 2026 at 7:03 PM
After PM Mark Carney’s first official visit to China, both sides will now be busy figuring out how to move forward all the MOUs and refreshed "strategic partnership". I wish them luck. Every new government, not just in Canada, thinks it can do China better than the last one. History says otherwise.