Benjamin, J
@benjaminj.bsky.social
Cleveland Guardians Fan, Jose Ramirez lover, and avid skier. Writer of Eyes on the Jake
https://eyesonthejake.substack.com/publish/settings
🇺🇸
https://eyesonthejake.substack.com/publish/settings
🇺🇸
It’s absolutely insane how the BBWAA has coalesced around Felix
Never have I seen the BBWAA so swiftly ‘revise’ (which you should take to mean lower) their standards
Never have I seen the BBWAA so swiftly ‘revise’ (which you should take to mean lower) their standards
Of course I'm surprised, because that would be an historic jump. If Félix Hernández reaches @sardell.bsky.social's median projection of 47%, his 26.4% gain would be the largest since BBWAA voters returned to annual balloting in 1967. Meeting Sardell's low-end projection (41%) would be 11th-largest
January 3, 2026 at 5:52 PM
It’s absolutely insane how the BBWAA has coalesced around Felix
Never have I seen the BBWAA so swiftly ‘revise’ (which you should take to mean lower) their standards
Never have I seen the BBWAA so swiftly ‘revise’ (which you should take to mean lower) their standards
1. Venezuela would be incredibly stupid to pick a further fight with the US. That isn't the question
2. The implications for Venezuela are domestic: what happens now that Maduro is gone?
3. THEN the question is what the US does to assist after the fact
2. The implications for Venezuela are domestic: what happens now that Maduro is gone?
3. THEN the question is what the US does to assist after the fact
It’s clearly an act of war—the question is whether and how Venezuela decides to treat it as one.
you cannot blockade a country and bomb its capital cities and capture its leader without being at war with it, is the thing
January 3, 2026 at 3:19 PM
1. Venezuela would be incredibly stupid to pick a further fight with the US. That isn't the question
2. The implications for Venezuela are domestic: what happens now that Maduro is gone?
3. THEN the question is what the US does to assist after the fact
2. The implications for Venezuela are domestic: what happens now that Maduro is gone?
3. THEN the question is what the US does to assist after the fact
Abreu was a generalist and boring, sometimes boring players are good enough to be in the Hall of Fame
eyesonthejake.substack.com/p/the-case-f...
eyesonthejake.substack.com/p/the-case-f...
The Case for the Generalist
Why I can't quit Bobby Abreu
eyesonthejake.substack.com
January 3, 2026 at 3:16 PM
Abreu was a generalist and boring, sometimes boring players are good enough to be in the Hall of Fame
eyesonthejake.substack.com/p/the-case-f...
eyesonthejake.substack.com/p/the-case-f...
Tragedy & the Hall of Fame. It’s a complicated relationship. From Addie Joss to Kirby Puckett, voters sometimes give a pass to short careers cut off by fate.
What does that mean for Dustin Pedroia & David Wright this year? I dug into the numbers to find out. 🧵
What does that mean for Dustin Pedroia & David Wright this year? I dug into the numbers to find out. 🧵
January 2, 2026 at 10:36 PM
Tragedy & the Hall of Fame. It’s a complicated relationship. From Addie Joss to Kirby Puckett, voters sometimes give a pass to short careers cut off by fate.
What does that mean for Dustin Pedroia & David Wright this year? I dug into the numbers to find out. 🧵
What does that mean for Dustin Pedroia & David Wright this year? I dug into the numbers to find out. 🧵
1) Mike Petriello is a good writer and I appreciate him standing up and defending his vote. His column is good
But he is just wrong on Felix Hernandez and it's distressing to me
Felix Hernandez is not, and should not be, a Hall of Famer (I'm a no on Hamels and Buehrle for similar reasons)
But he is just wrong on Felix Hernandez and it's distressing to me
Felix Hernandez is not, and should not be, a Hall of Famer (I'm a no on Hamels and Buehrle for similar reasons)
Here's my first HOF ballot. Wasn't easy, put a lot of thought into it.
The way I did this was ...
(1/3)
The way I did this was ...
(1/3)
December 31, 2025 at 8:49 PM
1) Mike Petriello is a good writer and I appreciate him standing up and defending his vote. His column is good
But he is just wrong on Felix Hernandez and it's distressing to me
Felix Hernandez is not, and should not be, a Hall of Famer (I'm a no on Hamels and Buehrle for similar reasons)
But he is just wrong on Felix Hernandez and it's distressing to me
Felix Hernandez is not, and should not be, a Hall of Famer (I'm a no on Hamels and Buehrle for similar reasons)
We know the metrics love Chase Utley's glove. But what if we regressed his defense to "average"? Does he still make the Hall of Fame cut?
I fiddled with the WAR calculations and compared him to the newly inducted Jeff Kent to see if Utley's case holds water without the defensive boost.
I fiddled with the WAR calculations and compared him to the newly inducted Jeff Kent to see if Utley's case holds water without the defensive boost.
Fiddling With WAR
Why Utley's Hall of Fame Case Hinges on More Than His Defense
open.substack.com
December 31, 2025 at 1:48 PM
We know the metrics love Chase Utley's glove. But what if we regressed his defense to "average"? Does he still make the Hall of Fame cut?
I fiddled with the WAR calculations and compared him to the newly inducted Jeff Kent to see if Utley's case holds water without the defensive boost.
I fiddled with the WAR calculations and compared him to the newly inducted Jeff Kent to see if Utley's case holds water without the defensive boost.
Carlos Beltran was a 5-tool power threat. Kenny Lofton was a defensive wizard and a chaos agent on the bases.
Different styles, nearly identical value.
Why Beltran’s induction is the perfect argument for finally putting Kenny Lofton in Cooperstown:
open.substack.com/pub/eyesonth...
Different styles, nearly identical value.
Why Beltran’s induction is the perfect argument for finally putting Kenny Lofton in Cooperstown:
open.substack.com/pub/eyesonth...
Comparing Center Fielders Part 2
Why Kenny Lofton is a Hall of Famer and How He Compares to Carlos Beltrán
open.substack.com
December 30, 2025 at 1:06 PM
Carlos Beltran was a 5-tool power threat. Kenny Lofton was a defensive wizard and a chaos agent on the bases.
Different styles, nearly identical value.
Why Beltran’s induction is the perfect argument for finally putting Kenny Lofton in Cooperstown:
open.substack.com/pub/eyesonth...
Different styles, nearly identical value.
Why Beltran’s induction is the perfect argument for finally putting Kenny Lofton in Cooperstown:
open.substack.com/pub/eyesonth...
Center Field is modern baseball's most overlooked position in Cooperstown. With Andruw Jones rising, we need to talk about Jim Edmonds. 🧵
open.substack.com/pub/eyesonth...
open.substack.com/pub/eyesonth...
Comparing Center Fielders Part 1
Why Jim Edmonds is a Hall of Famer and How He Compares to Andruw Jones
open.substack.com
December 29, 2025 at 11:00 PM
Center Field is modern baseball's most overlooked position in Cooperstown. With Andruw Jones rising, we need to talk about Jim Edmonds. 🧵
open.substack.com/pub/eyesonth...
open.substack.com/pub/eyesonth...
it boggles my mind that Felix can get this level of support over better players like Pedroia
Ballot #83 is from Jay Cohen. He adds several pitchers and Chase Utley to holdover Beltrán. Buehrle is +5 and Utley +9, while Félix reaches +20. Hamels also gets his vote.
In the Tracker: tracker.fyi
In the Tracker: tracker.fyi
December 29, 2025 at 7:38 PM
it boggles my mind that Felix can get this level of support over better players like Pedroia
Sigh
I am resigning myself to Felix going in the Hall of fame even if he doesn’t deserve it
I am resigning myself to Felix going in the Hall of fame even if he doesn’t deserve it
The first 60 ballots revealed include 10 from first-time voters. Here is how each candidate has fared among the rookie voters:
Beltrán, Félix 100%
Andruw, Pettitte 90%
Utley 80%
Hamels 70%
Abreu, Manny, A-Rod 60%
Buehrle 50%
Rollins 40%
Pedroia, Wright 30%
K-Rod, Vizquel 10%
All others 0%
Beltrán, Félix 100%
Andruw, Pettitte 90%
Utley 80%
Hamels 70%
Abreu, Manny, A-Rod 60%
Buehrle 50%
Rollins 40%
Pedroia, Wright 30%
K-Rod, Vizquel 10%
All others 0%
December 27, 2025 at 9:15 PM
Sigh
I am resigning myself to Felix going in the Hall of fame even if he doesn’t deserve it
I am resigning myself to Felix going in the Hall of fame even if he doesn’t deserve it
1) Joe Nathan, Papelbon, and K-Rod are statistically nearly identical, yet two fell off the ballot immediately. If we induct K-Rod, we ignore the others. It’s illogical.
David Robertson is statistically similar to K-Rod but lacks Saves because he set up Mariano, saves can't be the only HOF stat
David Robertson is statistically similar to K-Rod but lacks Saves because he set up Mariano, saves can't be the only HOF stat
December 27, 2025 at 2:42 PM
1) Joe Nathan, Papelbon, and K-Rod are statistically nearly identical, yet two fell off the ballot immediately. If we induct K-Rod, we ignore the others. It’s illogical.
David Robertson is statistically similar to K-Rod but lacks Saves because he set up Mariano, saves can't be the only HOF stat
David Robertson is statistically similar to K-Rod but lacks Saves because he set up Mariano, saves can't be the only HOF stat
Beltran, A-Rod, and the "Ick Factor." Wrestling with the difference between bad sportsmanship and bad people on this year's HOF ballot, more below 🔗
December 24, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Beltran, A-Rod, and the "Ick Factor." Wrestling with the difference between bad sportsmanship and bad people on this year's HOF ballot, more below 🔗
I disagree with the Omar and Rollins votes, but he gets it on Pettitte and Hamels
Ballot #47 is from Kevin Kernan. He again checks the names of his seven 2025 holdovers and votes for Cole Hamels, who is at 31.9%, in his first year of eligibility.
His column: ballnine.com/2025/12/24/h...
Coming Soon to the Tracker
His column: ballnine.com/2025/12/24/h...
Coming Soon to the Tracker
December 24, 2025 at 3:00 PM
I disagree with the Omar and Rollins votes, but he gets it on Pettitte and Hamels
Koufax or Sutton? Peak or longevity? The 1966 Dodgers explain the HOF cases for Andy Pettitte & Mark Buehrle. Why I’m a "Yes" on Andy but "No" on Mark. ⚾️ Overall I feel Andy Pettitte is a modern day Whitey Ford
December 24, 2025 at 1:19 AM
Koufax or Sutton? Peak or longevity? The 1966 Dodgers explain the HOF cases for Andy Pettitte & Mark Buehrle. Why I’m a "Yes" on Andy but "No" on Mark. ⚾️ Overall I feel Andy Pettitte is a modern day Whitey Ford
It is legitimately insane that Felix is getting this level of support
With 42 ballots revealed/~9.8% of the total vote known:
Beltrán 76.2%
Andruw 76.2%
-
Utley 59.5%
Félix 54.8%
Pettitte 50.0%
Abreu 45.2%
A-Rod 42.9%
Manny 35.7%
Hamels 28.6%
Rollins 28.6%
Buehrle 26.2%
Pedroia 26.2%
Vizquel 23.8%
K-Rod 16.7%
Wright 16.7%
Braun 9.5%
-
EE/Torii/Pence 2.4%
tracker.fyi
Beltrán 76.2%
Andruw 76.2%
-
Utley 59.5%
Félix 54.8%
Pettitte 50.0%
Abreu 45.2%
A-Rod 42.9%
Manny 35.7%
Hamels 28.6%
Rollins 28.6%
Buehrle 26.2%
Pedroia 26.2%
Vizquel 23.8%
K-Rod 16.7%
Wright 16.7%
Braun 9.5%
-
EE/Torii/Pence 2.4%
tracker.fyi
December 23, 2025 at 8:18 PM
It is legitimately insane that Felix is getting this level of support
At least he’s consistent
Ballot #43 is from Bruce Miles. He adds first-timer Hamels and returners Félix (now +10, the first to reach double digit net gain this year) and Pettitte (+5) to his seven holdovers.
In the Tracker: tracker.fyi
In the Tracker: tracker.fyi
December 23, 2025 at 8:17 PM
At least he’s consistent
Reposted by Benjamin, J
🇺🇦 The BBC reports that the Ukrainian company Fire Point is now able to produce 200 long-range one-way attack munitions per day (5.400-6.200 per month), with the companies FP-1 and FP-2 being responsible for 60% of Ukraine's drone strikes on Russia.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
In this secret missile factory, Ukraine is ramping up its domestic arms industry
The BBC goes to a secret Ukrainian factory, where they are manufacturing new long-range missiles.
www.bbc.com
December 21, 2025 at 6:15 PM
🇺🇦 The BBC reports that the Ukrainian company Fire Point is now able to produce 200 long-range one-way attack munitions per day (5.400-6.200 per month), with the companies FP-1 and FP-2 being responsible for 60% of Ukraine's drone strikes on Russia.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
A very annoying ballot where the voter DROPS the best starter in favor of keeping the worst
Ballot #36 is from Sean Forman. He adds back Abreu (now +5) and A-Rod (+2) after dropping them for space last year, while strategically omitting Pettitte, who falls to +3. Hamels gets his 10th Hall vote and sits at 27.8% his first year.
In the Tracker: tracker.fyi
In the Tracker: tracker.fyi
December 21, 2025 at 10:26 PM
A very annoying ballot where the voter DROPS the best starter in favor of keeping the worst
Signing relievers won't fix the Guardians' offense. The "blocking prospects" excuse is holding Cleveland back. Why we need an imperfect bat for 2026 now. ⚾️
open.substack.com/pub/eyesonth...
open.substack.com/pub/eyesonth...
The Bullpen is Fine, Fix the Lineup
A Plea to the Guardians Front Office
open.substack.com
December 21, 2025 at 7:04 PM
Signing relievers won't fix the Guardians' offense. The "blocking prospects" excuse is holding Cleveland back. Why we need an imperfect bat for 2026 now. ⚾️
open.substack.com/pub/eyesonth...
open.substack.com/pub/eyesonth...
Cole Hamels lived in the shadow of Halladay and Kershaw. Felix stood alone. Does that make Felix better? The numbers tell a very different story.
December 19, 2025 at 12:43 PM
Cole Hamels lived in the shadow of Halladay and Kershaw. Felix stood alone. Does that make Felix better? The numbers tell a very different story.
Reposted by Benjamin, J
Trump's bellicosity toward Venezuela is a betrayal of everything that the FIFA Peace Prize stands for.
December 18, 2025 at 5:27 PM
Trump's bellicosity toward Venezuela is a betrayal of everything that the FIFA Peace Prize stands for.
Is Felix Hernandez a Hall of Famer? The numbers say no. From the myth of his "dominance" to the hard data on his peak, here is the case against the King
open.substack.com/pub/eyesonth...
open.substack.com/pub/eyesonth...
A Royal Mistake
Why Felix Hernandez is not a Hall of Famer
open.substack.com
December 15, 2025 at 12:35 PM
Is Felix Hernandez a Hall of Famer? The numbers say no. From the myth of his "dominance" to the hard data on his peak, here is the case against the King
open.substack.com/pub/eyesonth...
open.substack.com/pub/eyesonth...
this is a puzzling ballot but...
Ballot #17 is from Bill Center. After submitting a ballot of Ichiro, Billy Wagner and Carlos Beltrán in 2025, Andruw Jones is his lone checkmark this year. Jones improves to net +3 while Beltrán falls to net +1. The two CF remain the only candidates above 75%
In the Tracker: tracker.fyi
In the Tracker: tracker.fyi
December 14, 2025 at 6:26 PM
this is a puzzling ballot but...
Felix Hernandez will eventually be viewed as this generation's Catfish Hunter
Except unlike Catfish he has 0 postseason glory, 0 victories to his name, and waltzed in due to a knee jerk desperation to solve a problem which as of yet does not exist
Except unlike Catfish he has 0 postseason glory, 0 victories to his name, and waltzed in due to a knee jerk desperation to solve a problem which as of yet does not exist
Félix Hernández has gone from 10% through 20 ballots last year to 55% through 20 this year (h/t @tonycal.bsky.social). Sneak peek at year over year charts, officially launching at 50 ballots:
December 14, 2025 at 6:25 PM
Felix Hernandez will eventually be viewed as this generation's Catfish Hunter
Except unlike Catfish he has 0 postseason glory, 0 victories to his name, and waltzed in due to a knee jerk desperation to solve a problem which as of yet does not exist
Except unlike Catfish he has 0 postseason glory, 0 victories to his name, and waltzed in due to a knee jerk desperation to solve a problem which as of yet does not exist
The 2026 Hall of Fame ballot is statistically the 3rd weakest of the century. 📉
But the real story isn't who is missing—it's the debate over how we judge the pitchers who are there.
Here is why we shouldn't lower the standards just yet. 🧵
But the real story isn't who is missing—it's the debate over how we judge the pitchers who are there.
Here is why we shouldn't lower the standards just yet. 🧵
Historical Standards, Modern Innings, and the "Weak" 2026 Ballot
Thoughts on the Current Efforts to Soften Hall of Fame Standards
open.substack.com
December 14, 2025 at 3:41 PM
The 2026 Hall of Fame ballot is statistically the 3rd weakest of the century. 📉
But the real story isn't who is missing—it's the debate over how we judge the pitchers who are there.
Here is why we shouldn't lower the standards just yet. 🧵
But the real story isn't who is missing—it's the debate over how we judge the pitchers who are there.
Here is why we shouldn't lower the standards just yet. 🧵