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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 5d

That is fairly terrifying, if true. Given the stakes.

Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 5d

They don't seem to have moved (enough) onto the "Reform's economic policies are batshit" part. Which would be a crucial part of that plan.

Genuinely, what *do* they do about the haemorrhage to Reform?

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 5d

I accept that even the Tories can't out-Reform Reform on immigration, but is it a totally crazy pitch for them to say to Con/Ref considerers "sure, we aren't as hard line on immigration as Reform, but we are pretty tough, and importantly we are not completely batshit on the the economy."

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 8d

Interesting that Reform, which is currently 10+ points ahead in the polls, has accused Starmer of "scholastic terrorism" apparently without being worried that it is labelling the Labour/Reform considerers it needs to attract as supporters of terrorism.

The New Statesman @handle.invalid · 9d

Crying racism only hurts Labour

Activists like it, but the median voter will feel attacked.

📊 @bwalker.uk

Crying racism only hurts Labour

Activists like it, but the median voter will feel attacked.

www.newstatesman.com

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 9d

A major point here, is that older working class people are by and large *not* in the poorest half of society. They tend to have good pensions and own their own houses outright and consequently are economically (as well as culturally) right wing and therefore have little interest in voting Labour.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 9d

Interestingly it *is* very much working people, if you define them as "people of working age who draw their income from employment". Even Corbyn in 2019 won the plurality of people of working age. In 2024 more people of working age with an income over £100k voted Labour than Tory.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 9d

Though... Anecdotally, there are some on the far right, who are happy to admit they are racist, but vehemently reject the label "far right" - presumably because they want to believe that racism is mainstream.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 18d

And it will definitely not be popular among the subset of voters who are likely to ever consider voting Labour. Unlike the Tories, Labour doesn't have to win over the minority with *extremely* hard-line views, just those who want a system that feels fairer and under control.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 19d

Always angers me that Hunt is treated as a sensible moderate when he was responsible for that utterly cynical move on tax - which is a major cause of the dreadful and damaging fiscal position the country is now.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 26d

I don't think it would solve the whole problem by any means, but suspect it might persuade some of those - particularly the relatively small number who voted Lab in 24 and have switched to Reform, to look again at the government. (Though timescales a problem here).

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 26d

People who vote Reform aren't necessarily badly off themselves but do tend to live in run down areas with low house prices and poor public services. Improving services, infrastructure and the public realm in those areas could help.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 26d

Thank you for this Ally. It means a lot that you are speaking out on this.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · Aug 29

Of course. Makes perfect sense.

Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · Aug 29

I wonder if she genuinely doesn't remember that she did the energy thing.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · Aug 28

Yes they are more electorally important because they count double in the majority of seats where Labour is likely to face Reform as its main challenger.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · Aug 28

It's really worth bearing in mind that Labour doesn't need to persuade all, or even most Reform voters. Just the minority that might consider Labour (who will tend to be *slightly* more liberal).

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · Aug 20

Oh absolutely, these are the crudest of crude calculations and of course based on GE2024 results which no longer apply, I was just interested to see what might be the broad shape of the two scenarios, particularly for the Greens.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · Aug 20

Basically, the choice here *based on current polling* (big caveat!) is "potentially hurt Labour badly, to help out Reform" or "don't hurt Labour all that badly, but maybe gain only a handful of seats for Your Party/Independents".

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · Aug 20

But in 6 seats, adding the Green vote to those of Independents (who would presumably stand under Your Party) *would* be enough for those candidates to win the seat. Though this assumes (probably incorrectly) that all Green voters would be happy to transfer to Your Party.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · Aug 20

OTOH a pact, where candidates stood aside for each other, exclusively benefits Your Party because the Greens are so far behind in most of the seats where they challenge Labour that adding in the Your Party vote doesn't help much.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · Aug 20

Given current polling we can assume that in reality, Reform (rather than the Tories) would be the main beneficiary of a split in the progressive vote, which would give Labour a very strong anti-Reform tactical voting message to anyone considering switching to Your Party: Vote Corbyn, get Nigel.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · Aug 20

A BMG Research poll asked for voting intention with and without the specific mention of "Your Party". The Labour vote dropped by 3 points. Applying this as a uniform swing to the GE2024 result would lose Labour 34 seats, mostly in ultra-marginal Lab-Con seats.

bmgresearch.com/wp-content/u...

bmgresearch.com

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · Aug 20

Thoughts on the potential impact of a Your Party/Green pact versus the parties standing separately. Standing independently hurts Labour the most, but overwhelmingly the beneficiary is likely to be Reform. OTOH a pact helps Your Party in a handful of seats. Neither scenario really helps the Greens.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · Aug 20

But that comes up against past US support for Ukraine which would mean he's on the losing side if Russia wins. And he doesn't want to be a "loser".

And so we go on with this endless Trump drama while people continue dying.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · Aug 20

Trump *could* end this war by applying that pressure (or let Russia win by fully abandoning Ukraine). Instead he vacillates.

Unknowable what goes on his mind to explain why he won't make the choice. I'd guess he instinctively sides with Putin (strongman, Trump also believes in regional power blocs)

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