Craig Kafura
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ckafura.bsky.social
Craig Kafura
@ckafura.bsky.social
1.8K followers 290 following 95 posts
Director, foreign policy and public opinion @Chicago Council; Fellow @Truman National Security Project; old Young Leader @Pacific Forum. Dad, husband, and hockey player. Via Columbia, Yale, and Appalachia.
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Reposted by Craig Kafura
busbyj2.bsky.social
Some news. My book on climate and security for Cambridge University Press is the winner of the 2026 Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Advancing World Order. Thrilled to be among the august company of previous winners. www.uoflnews.com/post/uofltod...
2026 Grawemeyer world order award winner explores the connection between climate change and security | UofL News
For his work to understand why climate change leads to negative security consequences in some places and not others, Joshua W. Busby, professor of public affairs at the University of Texas at Austin, ...
www.uoflnews.com
December 2, 2025 at 2:06 PM
Reposted by Craig Kafura
lfschleusener.bsky.social
Today is World AIDS Day. We remember those we lost, honor those who fought to keep people alive, and recommit to care that does not depend on who is in power.
December 1, 2025 at 9:26 PM
Reposted by Craig Kafura
coil.bsky.social
The numbers in here are hilarious.

Do you use AI on the job?
Execs: 87%
Managers: 57%
Workers: 27%

Planned investment by 2030: $5T
"Necessary" annual revenue to justify that spend: $650B
Current annual revenue: $50B
economist.com The Economist @economist.com · 3d
Three years into the generative-AI wave, demand for the technology seems surprisingly flimsy
Investors expect AI use to soar. That’s not happening
Recent surveys point to flatlining business adoption
econ.st
November 30, 2025 at 12:28 AM
Reposted by Craig Kafura
tylerplariviere.bsky.social
PHOTOS: A pair of snowy owls have taken roost of Montrose Harbor Beacon Pier, Tuesday, Nov. 25, 2025. | Tyler Pasciak LaRiviere/Sun-Times
November 25, 2025 at 11:45 PM
Reposted by Craig Kafura
charlescmann.bsky.social
In 1924, Calvin Coolidge's 16-yr-old son played tennis on the White House grounds w/o wearing socks. He got a blister and was dead from infection a week later.

This is unthinkable today—which is why I wrote this series. Cuz the systems that save us from this kind of fate are in urgent need of care.
charlescmann.bsky.social 𝙲𝚑𝚊𝚛𝚕𝚎𝚜 𝙲. 𝙼𝚊𝚗𝚗 @charlescmann.bsky.social · 7d
For a yr, I've been working on a series for The New Atlantis about the vast systems that underlie our lives. Our ancestors built them up over decades to fend off hunger, thirst, darkness and disease. But too few of us know about them—and they're all at risk. The conclusion is now available online:
Why We Are Better Off Than a Century Ago
Our ancestors built grand public systems to conquer hunger, thirst, darkness, and squalor. That progress can be lost if we forget it.
www.thenewatlantis.com
November 25, 2025 at 9:03 PM
Reposted by Craig Kafura
japantimes.co.jp
Ukrainian sumo wrestler Aonishiki said that he had surprised even himself by becoming the first from his country to win a sumo tournament. 👉 ebx.sh/tb4Bb5
November 25, 2025 at 2:42 PM
Reposted by Craig Kafura
danlehner.bsky.social
haven’t seen ROS or Solo but this seems like a pretty ball-knowing list from Pritzker, particularly if he volunteered the name “Star Wars” rather than “A New Hope”
So, we asked Pritzker to weigh in on the go-to debate for every "Star Wars" nerd: Which movies are the best? Here's his ranking of the 11 major films in the series: 1. "The Empire Strikes Back" (1980) 2. "Star Wars" (1977) 3. "Return of the Jedi" (1983) 4. "Rogue One" (2016) 5. "The Last Jedi" (2017) 6. "Revenge of the Sith" (2005) 7. "The Force Awakens" (2015) 8. "Solo" (2018) 9. "The Phantom Menace" (1999) 10. "Attack of the Clones" (2002) 11. "The Rise of Skywalker" (2019)
November 24, 2025 at 4:51 PM
Reposted by Craig Kafura
dcsneider.bsky.social
thoughtful, if depressing, comment on the Japan-China confrontation from the liberal Korean daily Hankyoreh.
english.hani.co.kr/arti/english...
[Column] There’s no solving the feud between Japan and China
US, which ought to be the mediator here, is nowhere to be seen
english.hani.co.kr
November 24, 2025 at 4:39 PM
Reposted by Craig Kafura
leedrutman.bsky.social
Ranked-choice voting makes sense for party primaries because party primaries often feature fractured fields.
November 24, 2025 at 3:59 PM
Reposted by Craig Kafura
dandrezner.bsky.social
I maybe be just a small-town political scientist but I reckon that the Trump administration's right hand has no fucking idea what its far-right hand is doing.
robertscotthorton.bsky.social Scott Horton @robertscotthorton.bsky.social · 10d
"US senators say they spoke with Rubio about Trump’s Ukraine peace plan who denied it is a US plan." Welcome to the Topsy Turvy administration in which six or seven people are pursuing their own private foreign policy, and much of it is scripted by a hostile foreign power.
US senators say they spoke with Rubio about Trump’s Ukraine peace plan who denied it is a US plan
U.S. senators critical of President Donald Trump’s approach to ending the Russia-Ukraine war say they spoke with U.S.
apnews.com
November 23, 2025 at 3:03 AM
Reposted by Craig Kafura
dinfontay.com
NEW: Today the Siebel Institute—the US' oldest/most prestigious brewing school & a cornerstone of the industry globally—announced its relocation from Chicago to Montreal, citing "[r]ecent regulatory changes in the US [that] have made it much more challenging for many of our international students."
Siebel Institute of Technology & World Brewing Academy's Post Facebook Facebook Facebook Facebook Facebook Facebook Facebook Facebook Facebook Facebook Facebook Facebook Facebook Facebook Facebook Facebook Facebook Facebook Facebook Facebook Facebook Facebook Facebook Facebook Facebook Facebook Facebook Facebook Facebook Facebook Facebook Facebook Facebook Siebel Institute of Technology & World Brewing Academy ntosdSpreo39546 h 70hghau15c20a1ccli67t31866hu79 2 7uc1m1ti5af7f · Siebel Institute of Technology Announces Strategic Relocation to Montreal Chicago, IL / Montreal, QC — Nov 20, 2025 — The Siebel Institute of Technology, the oldest brewing school in the Americas (established in 1872), is officially relocating its operations from Chicago, Illinois (USA) to Montreal, Québec (Canada) effective January 1, 2026. The new location address will be 3035 rue Sainte-Catherine E, Montréal (Québec), near Molson’s original brewery site (1786), the oldest brewery in North America. Siebel will be co-located with the new Lallemand Baking Academy and Application Technology Training Facility. This move marks a significant milestone in Siebel’s evolution, aligning with the changing dynamics of the global brewing industry and the need for the business to remain competitive and sustainable far into the future. The decision follows a comprehensive review of operational costs, industry trends, increased student visa challenges to enter the United States and is fully supported by Siebel’s longstanding partners and stakeholders. “Lallemand has proudly owned the Siebel Institute since 2000 and has consistently supported its autonomy as the center for world-class brewing education," said Antoine Chagnon, CEO of Lallemand Inc. "we are excited about the opportunities this relocation brings for the future of brewing education." Throughout its history, Siebel Institute has maintained a reputation for excellence in brewing science and education. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Lallemand’s financial support was instrumental in ensuring the school’s survival and continued service to the global brewing community. The relocation is also strongly endorsed by Siebel’s strategic partner in Munich, Germany, which makes up the World Brewing Academy (WBA). "We fully support this move and look forward to many more years of successful collaboration," said Dr. Werner Gloßner, Managing Director of Doemens Academy. The new facility in Montreal offers a unique opportunity to integrate brewing and baking education under one roof—two disciplines that have shared a rich history for millennia (as evidenced from the ancient Egyptian frescoes and scriptures). Montreal itself provides a vibrant, safe, and culturally rich environment for students, with world-class amenities and a thriving food and beverage scene. Siebel Institute will continue to offer its renowned online and campus classes and programs from its new home in Montreal, remaining committed to delivering the same high standards of education and training that have defined its legacy. "Maintaining the quality of education while keeping Siebel Institute and World Brewing Academy offerings affordable was key for us,” said John Hannafan, General Manager and Director of Education, Siebel Institute. “Recent regulatory changes in the U.S. have made it much more challenging for many of our international students, who have become the majority of our student body, to attend classes in person. This relocation of North America classroom operations to Montreal allows us to pivot without sacrificing the student experience." About Siebel Institute Siebel the oldest continuously operating professional brewing school in the Americas and part of Lallemand Brewing since 2000. www.Siebelinstitute.com About Doemens Academy Doemens, based in Munich (DE), is an internationally recognized institute for vocational development and training in the brewing, beverage, and food industries. The key to its success is the consistent combination of theory and practice, which is also reflected in the vocational training courses offered by the World Brewing Academy. Doemens is also the world's leading institution for training beer sommeliers and offers a wide range of consulting and laboratory services for companies in the beverage industry. https://doemens.org/en/ About Lallemand Brewing Lallemand Brewing, headquartered in Milwaukee, WI (USA), is a business unit of Lallemand Inc., a private family-owned company and one of the global leaders in the development, production and marketing of yeasts, bacteria, other microorganisms and their derivatives (such as yeast fractions, enzymes and other metabolites) for use in many foods, beverage, agricultural, health and nutrition applications. Lallemand is headquartered in Canada but has operations on all 5 continents. www.lallemandbrewing.com
November 20, 2025 at 9:26 PM
Reposted by Craig Kafura
dataforprogress.org
NEW IL-09 poll with the Justice Coalition Action: Daniel Biss and Kat Abughazaleh are tied for first in the Democratic primary with 18% of the vote.

Laura Fine trails in third with 10%, and all other candidates receive 6% or less of the vote.
Bar chart of polling data from Data For Progress. Title: Current State of the IL-09 Democratic Primary. Description: If the March 2026 Democratic primary election for the U.S. House of Representatives was held tomorrow, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for? Daniel Biss — 18% Kat Abughazaleh — 18% Laura Fine — 10% Mike Simmons — 6% Another candidate — 6% Bushra Amiwala — 6% Hoan Huynh — 5% Not sure — 31% October 29-November 3, 2025 survey of 569 likely Democratic primary voters in IL-09.
November 20, 2025 at 9:03 PM
Reposted by Craig Kafura
opiniontoday.bsky.social
Americans view Taiwan warmly and tend to favor various approaches for supporting Taiwan’s international status.
(@ckafura.bsky.social @global-affairs.bsky.social)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/251119-top...
November 20, 2025 at 4:03 AM
Reposted by Craig Kafura
seanjwestwood.bsky.social
Many have asked for the LLM Survey paper. The release was bungled a bit by PNAS, but it is live now: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
The potential existential threat of large language models to online survey research | PNAS
The advancement of large language models poses a severe, potentially existential threat to online survey research, a fundamental tool for data coll...
www.pnas.org
November 20, 2025 at 7:41 PM
ckafura.bsky.social
"In Book X of The Republic, Plato excludes poets on the grounds that mimetic language can distort judgment and bring society to a collapse...we observe a structurally similar failure mode [in LLMs]: poetic formatting can reliably bypass alignment constraints."
November 20, 2025 at 7:38 PM
Reposted by Craig Kafura
quigley.house.gov
I can't believe we even have to say this, but swastikas, nooses, and other hate emblems aren't "potentially divisive." They're symbols of terror and should continue to be banned by our troops.
 
Secretary Noem and Secretary Hegseth, I expect a reversal of this immediately.
U.S. Coast Guard will no longer classify swastikas, nooses as hate symbols
The military service, which falls under the Department of Homeland Security, has drafted a new policy that classifies such items “potentially divisive.”
wapo.st
November 20, 2025 at 7:00 PM
Reposted by Craig Kafura
aedwardslevy.bsky.social
"phishing" is right there
mikebarthelauthor.com Mike Barthel @mikebarthelauthor.com · 13d
Fish have committed credit card fraud
Credit card fraud Black neon tetras committed credit card fraud during a 2023 livestream by "Mutekimaru Channel" on YouTube. The owner was using motion-tracking software to turn the fish's movements into Nintendo Switch inputs, letting them "play" video games. 8 In 2020, the fish beat Pokemon Sapphire after 3,195 hours, a feat that takes about 30 hours for a typical human. 9/ 181 On January 14, 2023, Pokémon Violet crashed at 1,144 hours, giving the fish free access to the main menu. They entered inputs that opened Nintendo eShop, added 500 yen ($3.85 USD) to their owner's account, and exposed his credit card details on the livestream. 10) 11) Mutekimaru later requested a refund of the 500 yen from Nintendo. l12) "Fish eagerly read the terms and conditions. Many of us humans don't read the terms of service, but fish are smarter than we are" - caption from Mutekimaru in a video about the incident 12) The fish also downloaded an N64 emulator, set up PayPal, used reward points to buy an avatar, and changed Mutekimaru's Nintendo account name to "ROWAWAWA*". 13, After about seven hours, their movements shut down the Switch. 14)
November 19, 2025 at 9:53 PM
Reposted by Craig Kafura
jennytown.bsky.social
China has been restrained to the announcement re: South Korea's pursuit of a nuclear-powered subs. LEU vs. HEU fueled reactors and building good relations with Lee factor into that approach. But given the implications of where US-ROK relations are headed, can this restraint last?
38north.org 38 North @38north.org · 13d
Questions abound about how US-ROK cooperation will look on South Korea's pursuit of nuclear-powered subs and how China and other regional actors might respond. Yun Sun explains the mild reaction from Beijing so far, but with caveats. www.38north.org/2025/11/sout...
South Korean Nuclear-Powered Submarine Plan: Unpacking China’s Moderate Reaction - 38 North: Informed Analysis of North Korea
On October 29, President Trump announced that the United States will share nuclear propulsion ...
www.38north.org
November 19, 2025 at 6:36 PM
Reposted by Craig Kafura
daralind.bsky.social
Oh, hey, some personal news: I'm now a guest columnist for @documentedny.bsky.social, the best nonprofit newsroom in America.

documentedny.com/2025/11/17/d...
Documented Announces Newsroom Expansion With New Hires  - Documented
Documented expands its team with new hires and a guest columnist to provide trusted journalism for immigrant communities.
documentedny.com
November 19, 2025 at 4:54 PM
Reposted by Craig Kafura
aedwardslevy.bsky.social
an Old Time Cartoon of a small man being chased by a herd of enormous pollsters with notepads they are wearing suits and little hats, as pollsters do
November 18, 2025 at 9:05 PM
Reposted by Craig Kafura
maxbergmann.bsky.social
This is just such a stunning chart
sandertordoir.bsky.social Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 15d
From the great new NBER paper by Bloom et al on the cost of Brexit.

It ain't pretty - they estimate UK GDP is down between 6-8%. Consistent with the doppelgang model of @johnspringford.bsky.social for CER.

A lot of 'free' GDP available availabe for Labour if it had the courage to reset properly.
November 17, 2025 at 11:58 PM
ckafura.bsky.social
Great discussion on U.S.-China relations @global-affairs.bsky.social tonight with Rana Mitter, John Mearsheimer, and @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social
A photograph of a full audience watching three speakers on a stage; from left to right, Leslie Vinjamuri, Rana Mitter, and John Mearsheimer
November 18, 2025 at 12:00 AM
Reposted by Craig Kafura
kathleenweldon.bsky.social
Old polls teach me so much about controversies I never knew existed.
Danish Gallup, March 1963, on the preferred spoken form of numbers
Survey question and topline results: In most languages, including the Northern, numerals are pronounced as they are written, e.g. 56 is pro- nounced femtiseks (fifty six). Many Danes now use this form. Which form do you use as a rule. (Except for cheques etc. ) Use seksoghalvtreds (six and fifty) 88% Use femtiseks (fiftysix) 10% Both. 3% If it were suggested to use the form "femtiseks", would you support or oppose it? Support. 43% Oppose. 46% Don't know 11%
November 17, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Reposted by Craig Kafura
mhkeller.bsky.social
The cost of Trump's immigration surge: Stalled investigations into child sexual abuse, Iranian oil smuggling and human trafficking, among others. My latest piece is a big team effort on how DHS has been transformed into the Department of Deportation.

Gift link: www.nytimes.com/2025/11/16/u...
Homeland Security Missions Falter Amid Focus on Deportations
www.nytimes.com
November 16, 2025 at 6:35 PM
Reposted by Craig Kafura
dgrand.bsky.social
🚨Out in PNAS🚨
Examining news on 7 platforms:
1)Right-leaning platforms=lower quality news
2)Echo-platforms: Right-leaning news gets more engagement on right-leaning platforms, vice-versa for left-leaning
3)Low-quality news gets more engagement EVERYWHERE - even BlueSky!
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
November 14, 2025 at 2:35 PM