Dan Pemstein
@danpemstein.com
Political economist working mostly on democratic institutions, tech, political careers and party org, and measurement. http://www.danpemstein.com
https://digitalsocietyproject.org
https://digitalsocietyproject.org
Pinned
Dan Pemstein
@danpemstein.com
· Jun 2
Happy to share this paper with Jeevan Baniya, @smeserve.bsky.social, and Brigitte Seim. We used multiple survey experiments to see how Nepali voters think about the trade-off between vote-buying and candidate provision of local public goods (schools, plumbing) in office. doi.org/10.1111/ajps... 1/
My PhD's advisor's dissertation was on central bank independence, and that's supposed to be comically boring, not weirdly relevant.
January 12, 2026 at 4:58 AM
My PhD's advisor's dissertation was on central bank independence, and that's supposed to be comically boring, not weirdly relevant.
Reposted by Dan Pemstein
My mother grew up in Birmingham, AL. Upon seeing this at her local Target, she said something that stopped me in my tracks:
“Not even Bull Connor did this kind of foolishness.”
“Not even Bull Connor did this kind of foolishness.”
ICE at Midway Target and seem to possible be leaving. Lots of community members here
January 12, 2026 at 12:09 AM
My mother grew up in Birmingham, AL. Upon seeing this at her local Target, she said something that stopped me in my tracks:
“Not even Bull Connor did this kind of foolishness.”
“Not even Bull Connor did this kind of foolishness.”
I want to draw your attention to the woman in the pink coat, with the walker. Also, as a former citizen, often visitor, I want to say the new Minnesota flag is great.
Singers now processing through the neighborhood, aware that ICE has been active in the general area.
January 12, 2026 at 2:05 AM
I want to draw your attention to the woman in the pink coat, with the walker. Also, as a former citizen, often visitor, I want to say the new Minnesota flag is great.
I have to start teaching again Tuesday. Also was trying to stop stress eating so much. Space this shit out a little.
prince is sitting on a couch wearing a fur vest and a chain around his neck .
Alt: prince is sitting on a couch wearing a fur vest and a chain around his neck, his eyes are closed, his mouth is pursed, and he is shaking his head no. He looks fed up.
media.tenor.com
January 12, 2026 at 1:54 AM
I have to start teaching again Tuesday. Also was trying to stop stress eating so much. Space this shit out a little.
Reposted by Dan Pemstein
Seeing people do "here's the savvy take on how and why the US should acquire Greenland" and just feeling so *embarrassed* for them. Have some dignity. You don't need to be an apologist for the world's dumbest autocrat, you're not somehow sophisticated for seeing The Smart Play on imperial vainglory.
January 11, 2026 at 8:49 AM
Seeing people do "here's the savvy take on how and why the US should acquire Greenland" and just feeling so *embarrassed* for them. Have some dignity. You don't need to be an apologist for the world's dumbest autocrat, you're not somehow sophisticated for seeing The Smart Play on imperial vainglory.
Love this quote from the article: “I characterize science as a bunch of 5-year-olds playing soccer,” says another researcher [Sam Goldman]. “They all go where the ball is, running around the field in a herd.”
www.wired.com/story/scient...
www.wired.com/story/scient...
January 11, 2026 at 1:48 PM
Love this quote from the article: “I characterize science as a bunch of 5-year-olds playing soccer,” says another researcher [Sam Goldman]. “They all go where the ball is, running around the field in a herd.”
www.wired.com/story/scient...
www.wired.com/story/scient...
Feels like a tap-the-sign kind of news day
January 11, 2026 at 3:51 AM
Feels like a tap-the-sign kind of news day
Reposted by Dan Pemstein
Powerful piece in STAT this morning from some NIH staff members who have resigned
www.statnews.com/2026/01/10/n...
1/3
www.statnews.com/2026/01/10/n...
1/3
The NIH has lost its scientific integrity. So we left
“We can no longer lend our credibility to an organization that has lost its integrity,” write four scientists and administrators who recently resigned from the NIH.
www.statnews.com
January 10, 2026 at 12:24 PM
Powerful piece in STAT this morning from some NIH staff members who have resigned
www.statnews.com/2026/01/10/n...
1/3
www.statnews.com/2026/01/10/n...
1/3
Reposted by Dan Pemstein
Thank you to everyone who contributed to support Renee's wife and family. The organizer of the GoFundMe has announced it is closed, and the funds will go in a trust for the family.
If you need a little hit of humanity, I encourage you to scroll through the many, many comments.
If you need a little hit of humanity, I encourage you to scroll through the many, many comments.
Please consider joining me in donating to support Renee Good's wife and son, after Renee was murdered by ICE thugs in Minneapolis today
www.gofundme.com/f/support-fo...
www.gofundme.com/f/support-fo...
Donate to Support for Renee Good’s wife and son, organized by Mattie Weiss
Please support the wife and son of Renee Good as they grapple with the devastating … Mattie Weiss needs your support for Support for Renee Good’s wife and son
www.gofundme.com
January 10, 2026 at 2:31 AM
Thank you to everyone who contributed to support Renee's wife and family. The organizer of the GoFundMe has announced it is closed, and the funds will go in a trust for the family.
If you need a little hit of humanity, I encourage you to scroll through the many, many comments.
If you need a little hit of humanity, I encourage you to scroll through the many, many comments.
Reposted by Dan Pemstein
I like this kind of commentary from my soccer announcers.
Please stand with Denmark 🇩🇰 & Greenland 🇬🇱
January 10, 2026 at 1:06 AM
I like this kind of commentary from my soccer announcers.
Reposted by Dan Pemstein
"An Elegy for My Neighbor, Renee Nicole Good" - by Danez Smith
"Neighbor, you should have made it home to your child, to the bright warmth of his laughter, but our country is at war with its people, and your goodness makes you an enemy, a citizen insurgent."
www.harpersbazaar.com/culture/feat...
"Neighbor, you should have made it home to your child, to the bright warmth of his laughter, but our country is at war with its people, and your goodness makes you an enemy, a citizen insurgent."
www.harpersbazaar.com/culture/feat...
An Elegy for My Neighbor, Renee Nicole Good
Fellow poet Danez Smith memorializes the Minneapolis mother's call to witness
www.harpersbazaar.com
January 9, 2026 at 11:04 PM
"An Elegy for My Neighbor, Renee Nicole Good" - by Danez Smith
"Neighbor, you should have made it home to your child, to the bright warmth of his laughter, but our country is at war with its people, and your goodness makes you an enemy, a citizen insurgent."
www.harpersbazaar.com/culture/feat...
"Neighbor, you should have made it home to your child, to the bright warmth of his laughter, but our country is at war with its people, and your goodness makes you an enemy, a citizen insurgent."
www.harpersbazaar.com/culture/feat...
Reposted by Dan Pemstein
What strikes me is how not alarmed she is. Because a reasonable human being in this country didnt used to expect an agent of the state pulling a gun over this level of interaction.
The ICE agent called her a "fucking bitch" after he killed her. One officer screams "Go, get out of here" while this officer says "Get out of the car." You clearly see her turn the wheel AWAY from him after he steps in front of her car. Did they think releasing this would help them?? cw // violence
January 9, 2026 at 8:02 PM
What strikes me is how not alarmed she is. Because a reasonable human being in this country didnt used to expect an agent of the state pulling a gun over this level of interaction.
They don't. It's just part of the terror campaign.
i just watched this video and the fact that they believe this to be exculpatory is genuinely insane
ah. they all got the memo
xcancel.com/JDVance/stat...
xcancel.com/JDVance/stat...
January 9, 2026 at 7:45 PM
They don't. It's just part of the terror campaign.
Reposted by Dan Pemstein
Someone points out that the killer is taping the incident.
It looks like he tilts the phone away when he shoots but the seconds immediately leading up to it were recorded.
The footage of him after the killing and touching his phone is probably evidence deletion.
bsky.app/profile/just...
It looks like he tilts the phone away when he shoots but the seconds immediately leading up to it were recorded.
The footage of him after the killing and touching his phone is probably evidence deletion.
bsky.app/profile/just...
Nothing says being in fear for your life like having your phone out to get the content while your gun is still holstered.
January 7, 2026 at 9:51 PM
Someone points out that the killer is taping the incident.
It looks like he tilts the phone away when he shoots but the seconds immediately leading up to it were recorded.
The footage of him after the killing and touching his phone is probably evidence deletion.
bsky.app/profile/just...
It looks like he tilts the phone away when he shoots but the seconds immediately leading up to it were recorded.
The footage of him after the killing and touching his phone is probably evidence deletion.
bsky.app/profile/just...
This point is important. All state violence is political violence, technically. But this is *brazen political violence*: Send a paramilitary org to terrorize a community. Murder someone for disagreeing with you. Call their disagreement terrorism. Claim the right to murder your political opponents.
January 7, 2026 at 8:30 PM
This point is important. All state violence is political violence, technically. But this is *brazen political violence*: Send a paramilitary org to terrorize a community. Murder someone for disagreeing with you. Call their disagreement terrorism. Claim the right to murder your political opponents.
Reposted by Dan Pemstein
Not a lot of profit in tagging toxic speech at the moment.
January 7, 2026 at 6:40 PM
Not a lot of profit in tagging toxic speech at the moment.
Reposted by Dan Pemstein
Contrast this statement with video of the incident: bsky.app/profile/dani...
January 7, 2026 at 5:53 PM
Contrast this statement with video of the incident: bsky.app/profile/dani...
Reposted by Dan Pemstein
Some reflections from me on January 6 in comparative and historical perspective (first time on substack)
open.substack.com/pub/ziblatt4...
open.substack.com/pub/ziblatt4...
January 6 in Historical Perspective
January 6, 2026
open.substack.com
January 6, 2026 at 3:24 PM
Some reflections from me on January 6 in comparative and historical perspective (first time on substack)
open.substack.com/pub/ziblatt4...
open.substack.com/pub/ziblatt4...
Reposted by Dan Pemstein
This, but also not just politicians. So many of the election workers and officials I’ve talked with have harassment and threats of violence as one of their top concerns as they try to do their jobs. And yet it is very hard to design policy solutions that can target that 0.1%.
We underestimate how impactful harassment and threats of violence are on politicians. Clear, large uptick in the number of major incumbent politicians not running/retiring specifically due to harassments and threats of violence. The harassers are like 0.1% of the population but hugely impactful.
January 6, 2026 at 2:59 AM
This, but also not just politicians. So many of the election workers and officials I’ve talked with have harassment and threats of violence as one of their top concerns as they try to do their jobs. And yet it is very hard to design policy solutions that can target that 0.1%.
Yep. LLMs can be productivity-enhancing in various domains, but so far, if the goal is to produce well educated humans, they ironically undermine our ability to be as productive as we were as educators. You need more faculty to produce the same outcomes. Now, if your goal is generating diplomas...
I think a fundamental problem in 2026 is the good solutions require smaller first year classes where we can create new assessment methods (oral presentations, digital research projects, etc). LLMs break the assignments that worked OK with big groups. But no one is investing in hiring professors.
January 5, 2026 at 1:44 PM
Yep. LLMs can be productivity-enhancing in various domains, but so far, if the goal is to produce well educated humans, they ironically undermine our ability to be as productive as we were as educators. You need more faculty to produce the same outcomes. Now, if your goal is generating diplomas...
Reposted by Dan Pemstein
Oil companies aren’t going to sink tens of billions of dollars in capital expenditures that will take decades to pay off in order to revive Venezuela’s oil sector when they don’t know what the security situation will look like in 6 days, 6 months, or 6 years from now. They are not charities.
Trump wants U.S. oil companies to revive the Venezuelan oil industry,
but major production increases could require “tens of billions of dollars over multiple years,”
and involvement could be messy.
It won’t be worth it for many U.S.
oil companies.
Gift article:
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/b...
but major production increases could require “tens of billions of dollars over multiple years,”
and involvement could be messy.
It won’t be worth it for many U.S.
oil companies.
Gift article:
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/b...
The Venezuelan Oil Industry Trump Is Planning to Revive
www.nytimes.com
January 4, 2026 at 3:10 PM
Oil companies aren’t going to sink tens of billions of dollars in capital expenditures that will take decades to pay off in order to revive Venezuela’s oil sector when they don’t know what the security situation will look like in 6 days, 6 months, or 6 years from now. They are not charities.
Man, if I ever plot a coup against my boss, but need to keep my hands relatively clean, I hope there's a chump in the White House to send Delta Force to do it for me.
Weeks before U.S. forces seized President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela, Trump officials had settled on an acceptable candidate to replace Maduro, at least for the time being: Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, known for stabilizing Venezuela’s economy.
How Trump Fixed On a Maduro Loyalist as Venezuela’s New Leader
Nicolás Maduro balked at a gilded exile. U.S. officials then saw a more pliant option in his vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, known for stabilizing Venezuela’s economy.
nyti.ms
January 4, 2026 at 2:38 PM
Man, if I ever plot a coup against my boss, but need to keep my hands relatively clean, I hope there's a chump in the White House to send Delta Force to do it for me.