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David Wiczer @davidwiczer.bsky.social · Sep 6

On several levels, same energy in these two posts:
bsky.app/profile/did:...

Michael Stipe @michaelstipe.bsky.social · Aug 30

I can

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Reposted by David Wiczer

Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · Sep 5

The larger-than-usual downward revision last month was in large part driven by a negative skew in the job growth distribution among late reporting firms. That’s unusual, but it’s happened before when the pace of job growth slows rapidly. This print is more evidence that was the case

Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · Sep 5

U.S. employers added 22,000 jobs in August and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3 percent.
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...
Live coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2025/09... #NumbersDay

Employment Situation Summary - 2025 M07 Results

www.bls.gov

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Reposted by David Wiczer

Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · Jul 14

Unemployment insurance raises workers' bargaining power and wages, new research from @davidwiczer.bsky.social @atlantafed.org & co-authors.
#EconSky
www.atlantafed.org/research/pub...

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Reposted by David Wiczer

Gizem Kosar @gizemkosar.bsky.social · Aug 8

Households often use stimulus checks to repay their debt. How does this affect the effectiveness and design of fiscal policy?

Check out the @FacultiNet video where we discuss our joint work with Davide Melcangi, @pilossopher.bsky.social, and @davidwiczer.bsky.social

faculti.net/debt-stimulu...

Debt, Stimulus & Household Cash Transfers

If most households use stimulus checks to repay debt, what does that mean for how we design economic policy?

faculti.net

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David Wiczer @davidwiczer.bsky.social · Aug 21

It raises the idea that competitive pressure will dictate how much tariffs pass through to prices and, forebodingly, even firms who don't get a cost shock could see other firms' cost shock as cover to raise their own prices.

David Wiczer @davidwiczer.bsky.social · Aug 21

A fun/important little piece with @AtlantaFed
colleagues. Our survey center asked firms how exposed their supply chain was to imports. More import-intensive firms expect to raise prices more *and* the more their competitors import,the more they'll raise.
www.atlantafed.org/research/pub...

Will Tariffs Touch Off an Inflationary Impulse? Business Execs Think So.

This Policy Hub paper uses survey data to explore tariffs' potential inflationary impact and how it could spill over beyond those firms directly affected.

www.atlantafed.org

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Reposted by David Wiczer

Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · Apr 9

nvm

Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · Apr 9

We updated the chart.

Average US tariffs on China are now 104.3%.
Average China tariffs on the US are now 106.6%.

100% of goods flowing between the world's two largest economies are now subject to tariffs.

Details & data here: www.piie.com/research/pii...

US-China trade war tariffs: An up-to-date chart
Panel a: US-China tariff rates toward each other and rest of world (ROW)
Chinese tariffs on US exports 106.6%
US tariffs on Chinese exports 104.3%
Chinese tariffs on ROW exports 6.5%
US tariffs on ROW exports 15.7%

Panel b:
Percent of US-China trade subject to trade war tariffs
Chinese exports subject to US tariffs: 100%
US exports subject to Chinese tariffs: 100%

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David Wiczer @davidwiczer.bsky.social · Dec 8

I'm dealing with medical studies right now and it's incredible how little care they show about biased/selected samples.
Ugh, I know it's cliche for an economist to complain about this in medical stats... I also think the music of my youth was better 😉

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David Wiczer @davidwiczer.bsky.social · Dec 6

To be clear, yields have been rising but so below where they should be given tightness.

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David Wiczer @davidwiczer.bsky.social · Dec 6

Ahhh, that's was a typo. Meant vacancy yields. And they've been riding but so below where they should be given tightness.

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David Wiczer @davidwiczer.bsky.social · Dec 6

The question here is how to read different sources. I think that JOLTS are tricky now because vacancy yields are so low. It can inflate the stock, and we saw that... Fewer hires than would've been expected from this tightness ever since the end of the pandemic.

Preston Mui @prestonmui.bsky.social · Dec 6

I think Bostic is asking the right question right now: "The salient question for me today is whether the labor market is cooling more dramatically than I had imagined when I developed my outlook for the economy."

Dwells a lot on @davidwiczer.bsky.social's recent work on vacancy yields.

Heading into 2025 with Positive Economic Outlook, Mindful of Risks - December 2, 2024

In his latest quarterly message, Atlanta Fed president and CEO Raphael Bostic outlines his stance on labor market conditions and the path to 2 percent inflation.

www.atlantafed.org

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David Wiczer @davidwiczer.bsky.social · Dec 5

And we're not even getting into how one should estimate r* or u* .

David Wiczer @davidwiczer.bsky.social · Dec 5

Thinking the same thing, I had unfollowed 20 seconds ago. I may have put down some BTC puts before doing so.

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David Wiczer @davidwiczer.bsky.social · Nov 29

I see what you're saying with the relative price effect, but with imperfect competition it doesn't seem neutral to the overall price level. Like, they're essentially creating market power for some firms which should create a one time increase in prices, no?

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Reposted by David Wiczer

AEA Journals @aeajournals.bsky.social · Nov 27

Forthcoming in AEJ: Macroeconomics: "‘Less is More’: Consumer Spending and the Size of Economic Stimulus Payments" by Michele Andreolli and Paolo Surico. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

‘Less is More’: Consumer Spending and the Size of Economic Stimulus Payments

(Forthcoming Article) - We study the consumption response to unexpected transitory income gains of different size, using hypothetical questions from the Italian Survey of Household Income and Wealth. ...

www.aeaweb.org

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David Wiczer @davidwiczer.bsky.social · Nov 27

Hahaha, sorry Carlos! I definitely know it's true. This was my attempt at a reference to past Internet humor. And I actually just mean this is so huge that it's hard to believe it's true.

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David Wiczer @davidwiczer.bsky.social · Nov 26

Huge if true!

Carlos Garriga @carlosgarriga.bsky.social · Nov 26

FRED has added 3 data series (fred.stlouisfed.org/release?rid=...) for the Fujita, Moscarini, and Postel-Vinay Employer-to-Employer (E2E) Transition Probability. This provides a timely gauge of the pace of worker reallocation in the U.S. labor market.
#FRED #LaborMarket
#Data #Economics #StLouisFed

Fujita, Moscarini, and Postel-Vinay Employer-to-Employer Transition Probability | FRED | St. Louis Fed

Release: Fujita, Moscarini, and Postel-Vinay Employer-to-Employer Transition Probability, 3 economic data series, FRED: Download, graph, and track economic data.

fred.stlouisfed.org

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David Wiczer @davidwiczer.bsky.social · Nov 26

Why's it matter? We don't have a balanced budget anyway, and they're certainly minuscule relative to other tax sources. If you wanted to pay HH a consumption subsidy to offset the effect, we could do that regardless of the tax revenue.

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David Wiczer @davidwiczer.bsky.social · Nov 25

I know, none of these hills are that great, eh?
But I hear you: so instead of price-elasticity consumer substituion, it's more important to look at production substituion or intermediate input/ capital. I'm good with that.

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David Wiczer @davidwiczer.bsky.social · Nov 25

I mean, the easy example is that in his logic, the oil shocks wouldn't have been inflationary.

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David Wiczer @davidwiczer.bsky.social · Nov 25

Wait, so this is definitely a "me and not my employer" moment: but seems like he's making a comment that's either true or false depending on whether we mean CPI or PCE deflator and (for the later) what's the substituion pattern look like. He needs households to have another perfect substitute.

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Reposted by David Wiczer

Tatyana Deryugina @tderyugina.bsky.social · Nov 25

My recent op-ed in Project Syndicate (with @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social and others) lays out some arguments for why Trump should support a victory in Ukraine.

Check it out. Key points summarized below.

www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/a...

Trump’s Best Hope for Peace Is to Support Ukraine | by Tatyana Deryugina, et al - Project Syndicate

Tatyana Deryugina, et al warn that trying to appease Putin could cast the American president-elect as a modern-day Neville Chamberlain.

www.project-syndicate.org

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David Wiczer @davidwiczer.bsky.social · Nov 23

Haha. True

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Reposted by David Wiczer

The New York Times @nytimes.com · Nov 23

Pete Buttigieg told Democrats to not allow themselves to be so outraged by the Trump administration that they would neglect working for their constituents. “We cannot be mesmerized by the worst things that we see happening,” Buttigieg said. nyti.ms/3ZiKILz

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David Wiczer @davidwiczer.bsky.social · Nov 22

I love this: tariffs are expected to have an even bigger final goods price effect because of their effects on intermediate input prices...this'll be interesting learning where the market power is, i.e. who passes what through

Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · Nov 22

From the very sharp David Mericle at GS Research, here's the impact of a 1 ppt tariff rate increase on core PCE, by channel. What's notable is the production cost impact is larger than the direct consumer cost. There are a lot of tariff fans in denial abt this cost thru intermediate imports.

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