Preston Mui
@prestonmui.bsky.social
Economist at Employ America | Kasia Niewiadoma Fanboy | Bird Liker
Seattle, WA
Seattle, WA
So the "$140k poverty line" article's main point is just a misunderstanding of how the poverty line is calculated
November 24, 2025 at 8:21 PM
So the "$140k poverty line" article's main point is just a misunderstanding of how the poverty line is calculated
Reposted by Preston Mui
*DALY SEES SUDDEN DETERIORATION IN JOB MARKET AS MORE LIKELY:WSJ
November 24, 2025 at 7:58 PM
*DALY SEES SUDDEN DETERIORATION IN JOB MARKET AS MORE LIKELY:WSJ
I believe mine is 4
A modest proposal for celebrity academics: The Epstein Number.
Epstein Number 1: You are named in the Epstein files.*
Epstein Number 2: You have co-written an op-ed or co-signed an open letter with someone with an Epstein number of 1.
And so on.
* Epstein Number 0: you are Jeffrey Epstein.
Epstein Number 1: You are named in the Epstein files.*
Epstein Number 2: You have co-written an op-ed or co-signed an open letter with someone with an Epstein number of 1.
And so on.
* Epstein Number 0: you are Jeffrey Epstein.
November 22, 2025 at 11:00 PM
I believe mine is 4
Reposted by Preston Mui
Thank you all experts for explaining "why BLS can't just ask people whether they were unemployed in Oct for the household survey" to me
And this one from Erika is a clear and definite one if you like a TLDR
And this one from Erika is a clear and definite one if you like a TLDR
Several constraints, all binding:
1. You would have to redesign the questionnaire
2. You would have to redesign the tech infrastructure used in the field
3. There’s no staff, no time to do either one
4. Even if you could do it, somehow, you’d introduce a heavy amount of recall bias into the answers
1. You would have to redesign the questionnaire
2. You would have to redesign the tech infrastructure used in the field
3. There’s no staff, no time to do either one
4. Even if you could do it, somehow, you’d introduce a heavy amount of recall bias into the answers
November 21, 2025 at 5:01 PM
Thank you all experts for explaining "why BLS can't just ask people whether they were unemployed in Oct for the household survey" to me
And this one from Erika is a clear and definite one if you like a TLDR
And this one from Erika is a clear and definite one if you like a TLDR
December meeting is going to be so messy. Outside of times like 2020, labor market deterioration plays out over months, not weeks. Unlikely the claims data in between now and then is going to be a slam dunk case for cutting or holding.
November 20, 2025 at 7:50 PM
December meeting is going to be so messy. Outside of times like 2020, labor market deterioration plays out over months, not weeks. Unlikely the claims data in between now and then is going to be a slam dunk case for cutting or holding.
Reposted by Preston Mui
If you wanted one chart that would make me continue to say that the pandemic policy response and tradeoffs thereafter were worth it (from a macro perspective) this would probably be it. Sustained periods of v v high prime-age EPOP are rare!
Prime age (25-54 years old) EPOP measures core labor market strength, omits people on fringes of work steady at 80.7%, below record-high of 80.9% a year ago
It was never higher than this during 2002-'22 (80.4% high).
Constrains adding jobs without immigration = working age folks are working.
It was never higher than this during 2002-'22 (80.4% high).
Constrains adding jobs without immigration = working age folks are working.
November 20, 2025 at 1:50 PM
If you wanted one chart that would make me continue to say that the pandemic policy response and tradeoffs thereafter were worth it (from a macro perspective) this would probably be it. Sustained periods of v v high prime-age EPOP are rare!
New Indeed posted wage growth data out yesterday -- 2.38% year on year, a new low in this cycle
November 19, 2025 at 8:58 PM
New Indeed posted wage growth data out yesterday -- 2.38% year on year, a new low in this cycle
FOMC October Minutes
"Several" vs. "Many"
"Several" vs. "Many"
November 19, 2025 at 7:06 PM
FOMC October Minutes
"Several" vs. "Many"
"Several" vs. "Many"
PPI next Tuesday Nov 25
October JOLTS delayed a week (dec 9)
October Jobs day canceled
November Jobs day delayed a week (Dec 16th, after fomc)
October JOLTS delayed a week (dec 9)
October Jobs day canceled
November Jobs day delayed a week (Dec 16th, after fomc)
November 19, 2025 at 5:28 PM
PPI next Tuesday Nov 25
October JOLTS delayed a week (dec 9)
October Jobs day canceled
November Jobs day delayed a week (Dec 16th, after fomc)
October JOLTS delayed a week (dec 9)
October Jobs day canceled
November Jobs day delayed a week (Dec 16th, after fomc)
seeing eggs down to 18/$3. economy is fixed
November 18, 2025 at 6:30 AM
seeing eggs down to 18/$3. economy is fixed
Reposted by Preston Mui
A questioner asks Fed governor Waller about Trump's "rather non scientific arguments" for cutting interest rates. Waller, on the short list for Fed chair, says "I'm not gonna touch that one."
November 17, 2025 at 9:06 PM
A questioner asks Fed governor Waller about Trump's "rather non scientific arguments" for cutting interest rates. Waller, on the short list for Fed chair, says "I'm not gonna touch that one."
Waller saying that neither the "September jobs report later this week or any other data in the next few weeks" are likely to deter him from supporting a December cut
November 17, 2025 at 8:56 PM
Waller saying that neither the "September jobs report later this week or any other data in the next few weeks" are likely to deter him from supporting a December cut
very disgusting www.thecrimson.com/article/2025...
As Summers Sought Clandestine Relationship With Woman He Called a Mentee, Epstein Was His ‘Wing Man’ | News | The Harvard Crimson
When former Harvard President Lawrence H. Summers was pursuing a romantic relationship with a woman he described as a mentee, he turned to a longtime associate for guidance: convicted sex offender Jef...
www.thecrimson.com
November 17, 2025 at 3:48 AM
very disgusting www.thecrimson.com/article/2025...
Reposted by Preston Mui
Okay, so maybe I wasn't too mean to him ...
November 12, 2025 at 5:11 PM
Okay, so maybe I wasn't too mean to him ...
Reposted by Preston Mui
Every month for the last 77 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has estimated Americans' unemployment rate
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
Here's the planned BLS data release schedule for Nov 2025.
On Tues, it couldn't release Sept job openings, hires, layoffs and firings data.
This morning, it couldn't release 2025Q3 business Productivity and Costs data.
Tomorrow, it can't release Oct 2025 #JobsReport
www.bls.gov/schedule/202...
On Tues, it couldn't release Sept job openings, hires, layoffs and firings data.
This morning, it couldn't release 2025Q3 business Productivity and Costs data.
Tomorrow, it can't release Oct 2025 #JobsReport
www.bls.gov/schedule/202...
November 6, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Every month for the last 77 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has estimated Americans' unemployment rate
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
who will step up to be the birder on the fomc
The first ever African American regional Fed president, Raphael Bostic, will not seek another term and will retire in February. His exit comes as regional Fed leaders may face a fraught renomination process. Bostic got heat for social justice activies and was dinged hard on ethics front.
Atlanta Fed President Bostic to Retire at the End of Current Term
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta announces the retirement of Raphael Bostic after eight and a half years of service. A search for Bostic's successor will begin immediately.
www.atlantafed.org
November 13, 2025 at 3:34 AM
who will step up to be the birder on the fomc
Reposted by Preston Mui
A busy first day as your Mayor-elect: early morning interviews, transition announcements and meetings. More to say on all of it tomorrow.
But a highlight was lunch with my Congresswoman @aoc.bsky.social at Laliguras Bistro in Jackson Heights.
But a highlight was lunch with my Congresswoman @aoc.bsky.social at Laliguras Bistro in Jackson Heights.
November 6, 2025 at 12:47 AM
A busy first day as your Mayor-elect: early morning interviews, transition announcements and meetings. More to say on all of it tomorrow.
But a highlight was lunch with my Congresswoman @aoc.bsky.social at Laliguras Bistro in Jackson Heights.
But a highlight was lunch with my Congresswoman @aoc.bsky.social at Laliguras Bistro in Jackson Heights.
Reposted by Preston Mui
Ironically, I collaborated with several Gates-funded scientists some years ago in a study showing that climate change will potentially expose millions more in the highland regions of Africa to Malaria transmission.
Press release here: www.psu.edu/news/researc...
Press release here: www.psu.edu/news/researc...
November 4, 2025 at 11:35 PM
Ironically, I collaborated with several Gates-funded scientists some years ago in a study showing that climate change will potentially expose millions more in the highland regions of Africa to Malaria transmission.
Press release here: www.psu.edu/news/researc...
Press release here: www.psu.edu/news/researc...
New frontiers in fiscal stimulus
"Terminally online hedge fund manager Bill Ackman donated $1.75 million, while failed presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg donated $8.3 million, all to no avail." prospect.org/2025/11/04/a...
America’s Dumbest Billionaires Fail to Stop Zohran Mamdani - The American Prospect
It’s encouraging on many levels: New York City didn’t submit to a campaign of flagrant bigotry from disgraced two-time loser Andrew Cuomo, and Americans, particularly young ones, can still be politica...
prospect.org
November 5, 2025 at 1:59 PM
New frontiers in fiscal stimulus
The future of discourse
November 4, 2025 at 3:53 AM
The future of discourse
Cook sees current policy as "moderately" restrictive; " I believe that the downside risks to employment are greater than the upside risks to inflation."
November 3, 2025 at 7:17 PM
Cook sees current policy as "moderately" restrictive; " I believe that the downside risks to employment are greater than the upside risks to inflation."
Reposted by Preston Mui
October 30, 2025 at 2:46 AM
I was surprised to see powell call this stabilizing (or whatever term he used)
Someone will eventually correctly call the bottom in the labor market but I don’t see how you could do that with any confidence here.
October 29, 2025 at 7:25 PM
I was surprised to see powell call this stabilizing (or whatever term he used)
Powell saying there were 'strongly disagreeing views' about a December cut
October 29, 2025 at 6:36 PM
Powell saying there were 'strongly disagreeing views' about a December cut