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egojunk.bsky.social
eric gonzalez juenke
@egojunk.bsky.social
4K followers 1.7K following 3.3K posts
Personal account. I study and teach racial and ethnic politics for work. Re-posting election twitter stuff. https://goodauthority.org/people/eric-gonzalez-juenke/
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egojunk.bsky.social
eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · Feb 27
Starting to wonder what the real upper limit on this baby is.
Reposted by eric gonzalez juenke
akoustov.bsky.social
My reflections on going viral for challenging pro-immigration orthodoxy: what I learned, what I should have done differently, and why I'm still convinced telling the truth matters even when colleagues fear it gives ammunition to the other side.
Reflections on “The Uncomfortable Truths about Immigration”
What I learned, what I got wrong, and answers to the most common questions.
alexanderkustov.substack.com
February 10, 2026 at 10:27 PM
Reposted by eric gonzalez juenke
andrew.heiss.phd
I just whipped up this little #QuartoPub site last week that demonstrates how I teach p-values/hyp-testing through simulation both with live OJS and with #rstats, and I think it's super neat! It has examples for diff-in-means, diff-in-props, and regression slopes nullworlds.andrewheiss.com #statsky
Simulated null distribution for data with a sample size of 100, difference in group means of 5, and a p-value of 0.142 Simulated null distribution of a slope of 0.8 and p-value of 0.002 Finally, we have to decide if the p-value meets an evidentiary standard or threshold that would provide us with enough evidence that we aren’t in the null world (or, in more statsy terms, enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis). There are lots of possible thresholds. By convention, most people use a threshold (often shortened to α) of 0.05, or 5%. But that’s not required! You could have a lower standard with an α of 0.1 (10%), or a higher standard with an α of 0.01 (1%). Statistically significant The p-value is < 0.001 and our threshold for α is 0.05 In a world where there is no relationship between x and y, the probability of seeing a slope of at least 0.901 is < 0.1% Since < 0.001 is less than 0.05, we have enough evidence to say that the slope is statistically significant. Evidentiary standards When thinking about p-values and thresholds, I like to imagine myself as a judge or a member of a jury. Many legal systems around the world have formal evidentiary thresholds or standards of proof. If prosecutors provide evidence that meets a threshold (i.e. goes beyond a reasonable doubt, or shows evidence on a balance of probabilities), the judge or jury can rule guilty. If there’s not enough evidence to clear the standard or threshold, the judge or jury has to rule not guilty. With p-values: If the probability of seeing an effect or difference (or δ) in a null world is less than 5% (or whatever the threshold is), we rule it statistically significant and say that the difference does not fit in that world. We’re pretty confident that it’s not zero. If the p-value is larger than the threshold, we do not have enough evidence to claim that δ doesn’t come from a world of where there’s no difference. We don’t know if it’s not zero. Importantly, if the difference is not significant, that does not mean that there is no difference. It just means that we can’t detect one if there is. If a prosecutor doesn’t provide sufficient evidence to clear a standard or threshold, it does not mean that the defendant didn’t do whatever they’re charged with†—it means that the judge or jury can’t detect guilt.
February 11, 2026 at 9:14 PM
Reposted by eric gonzalez juenke
joshmccrain.bsky.social
this is extremely interesting
ryancbriggs.net Ryan Briggs @ryancbriggs.net · 5h
We coded our ~100k articles using LLMs. Should you believe them? To answer this, we benchmarked 4 human RAs against 3 LLMs on their ability to recover ground truth article data. Details in the paper and appendices, but the LLMs did well and handily beat the highly trained humans.
Graphs of sensitivity, showing LLMs outperforming humans
February 11, 2026 at 9:04 PM
Reposted by eric gonzalez juenke
jackiantonovich.bsky.social
Please, please get a colonoscopy. The prep kind of sucks, but it's the best sleep you'll ever have. And it could save your life.
James Van Der Beek, Dawson's Creek actor, dies aged 48
The father of six starred in multiple popular shows and films in the late 1990s and early 2000s, including Dawson's Creek and Varsity Blues.
www.bbc.com
February 11, 2026 at 8:23 PM
Reposted by eric gonzalez juenke
dancassino.bsky.social
The business model of polling is fundamentally broken. This is a problem for us in the field, but also for American democracy.
phillewis.bsky.social Phil Lewis @phillewis.bsky.social · 3h
Gallup will no longer measure presidential approval after 88 years thehill.com/homenews/med...
A photo of gallup
February 11, 2026 at 8:37 PM
egojunk.bsky.social
TIL Caligula's wife's name was Milonia? We are not beating the simulation allegations.
February 11, 2026 at 7:59 PM
Reposted by eric gonzalez juenke
hakeemjefferson.bsky.social
It’s now official. I’ll be publishing my first book, Respectability Politics, w/ @uchicagopress.bsky.social!

Proud to join a press w/ a strong lineage in Black studies & Black politics, including Cohen’s Boundaries of Blackness, which has deeply inspired my work.

Now to get these revisions done.
February 11, 2026 at 7:52 PM
egojunk.bsky.social
Generic ballot for young men LV (18-29). 61D, 31R. Whoopsie. www.thirdway.org/memo/where-d...
DemocratRepublicanDon't know/refused All registered voters 38% 22% 38% All RVs (with undecideds pushed) 54% 36% 10% Likely voters (with undecideds pushed) 61% 31% 8% Note: Refused percentages apply only to the horserace when undecided voters are pushed. Source: Third Way/HIT Strategies nationwide survey of 1,462 RVs young men ages 18-29, oversamples of 200 young Black men and 300 young Latino men, conducted December 8-22, 2025. MoE +/- 3.6%. Third Way
February 11, 2026 at 6:01 PM
Reposted by eric gonzalez juenke
ryancbriggs.net
I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.
It must be very hard to publish null results Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.
February 11, 2026 at 5:00 PM
egojunk.bsky.social
Wrote about this history last year and its unintended political consequences. goodauthority.org/news/the-una...
February 11, 2026 at 5:50 PM
Reposted by eric gonzalez juenke
polanalysis.bsky.social
Currently in FirstView: In “Survey Quality and Acquiescence Bias: A Cautionary Tale,” Andrés Cruz, Adam Bouyamourn, and @joeornstein.bsky.social discuss the dangers of drawing inferences from low-quality survey datasets. They replicate an experiment on acquiescence and misinformation.
February 11, 2026 at 3:40 PM
egojunk.bsky.social
Asked and answered. www.npr.org/2026/02/07/n...
Trump promised a crypto revolution. So why is bitcoin crashing?
Trump got elected promising to usher in a crypto revolution. More than a year later, bitcoin's price has come tumbling down. What happened?
www.npr.org
February 11, 2026 at 4:15 PM
Reposted by eric gonzalez juenke
justinwolfers.bsky.social
My menchies show a lotta distrust about the official jobs numbers right now.

Lemme be clear: I don't believe there's *any* political meddling in these numbers.

While the President has tried to mess with the BLS, he failed. I explain in a lot more detail, here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=kncV...
The BLS, Jobs Data, And Trust: Justin Wolfers On What Really Happened
Is it possible for democracy to win a quiet battle—and nobody notices? This clip tells a three-act story about the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the agency that produces the jobs report and…
www.youtube.com
February 11, 2026 at 3:05 PM
Reposted by eric gonzalez juenke
besttrousers.bsky.social
Guessing payrolls using White House kremlinology continues to have a ~0% hit rate.
besttrousers.bsky.social Matt Darling @besttrousers.bsky.social · 1d
He would say this whether he looked at the numbers or not. I would not draw any particular conclusions.
February 11, 2026 at 1:40 PM
Reposted by eric gonzalez juenke
elizabethbitmeehan.com
TODAY is the day #polisky - get those APSA-wide award submissions in. Truly a showcase of how much interesting, innovative work is going on in all areas of the discipline.
apsa.bsky.social APSA @apsa.bsky.social · 2d
The deadline to submit 2026 APSA Award nominations is quickly approaching! #APSAAwards and prizes honor the work of scholars who make outstanding contributions to political science research, teaching, and service. Submit by Wednesday, February 11th! 🏅🏆
Recognizing the Merit of our Peers: 2026 APSA Awards Nominations Open | Deadline: February 11, 2026 -
One of the many important roles of the American Political Science Association (APSA) is recognizing excellence in the political science profession.  APSA makes awards for the best dissertations,…
buff.ly
February 11, 2026 at 2:04 PM
Reposted by eric gonzalez juenke
lauratamman.bsky.social
Primary electorates, especially in times like these, are very difficult to predict accurately. The hand wringing over the lack of broadcast tv buys is kind of hysterical. It’s going to be fascinating to see how this one plays out.
February 11, 2026 at 1:05 PM
Reposted by eric gonzalez juenke
amengel.bsky.social
End of an era. Big time series loss.
sfcpoll.bsky.social Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 10h
News: Gallup will stop measuring presidential approval ratings after 89 years. Read the firm's reasons for making the change and what topics the Gallup will continue conducting in today's Early Brief
s2.washingtonpost.com/camp-rw/?tra...
Republicans dig in on defending ICE
The Washington Post’s essential guide to power and influence in D.C. As negotiations on ICE reforms continue, the GOP is backing DHS.
s2.washingtonpost.com
February 11, 2026 at 11:58 AM
Reposted by eric gonzalez juenke
burgessev.bsky.social
Texas Senate news
- Sen. Heinrich endorses Talarico, first Senate D endorser: “He’s running a really smart campaign"

- D senator: “There are a lot of us who are rooting for" Talarico

- Sen. Van Hollen criticizes “circular firing squad aspect" of campaign

www.semafor.com/article/02/1...
Democrats agonize over their Texas Senate primary
Sen. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M., told Semafor he’s backing James Talarico over Jasmine Crockett. But it’s not clear how many others will choose a side.
www.semafor.com
February 10, 2026 at 8:42 PM
Reposted by eric gonzalez juenke
agordonreed.bsky.social
An important book. Solid review.

How Vietnam Inflamed the Civil Rights Movement www.nytimes.com/2026/02/09/b...
How Vietnam Inflamed the Civil Rights Movement
www.nytimes.com
February 10, 2026 at 9:45 PM
Reposted by eric gonzalez juenke
proptermalone.bsky.social
so the jobs report flopsweat coming from the WH is at minimum because the annual baseline adjustment is going be brutal.

I would additionally guess that one or both are true:

1) January report very very bad
2) neg baseline adjustment bigger than net job growth for 2025 (almost certain)
February 10, 2026 at 9:18 PM
Reposted by eric gonzalez juenke
simonweschle.bsky.social
🚨 JOB ALERT 🚨

We're hiring a Teaching Assistant Professor in Comparative Politics!

Come join a great department: unc.peopleadmin.com/postings/312...

I'm on the committee, so send any questions my way.
#polisky #academicjobs
The Department of Political Science at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill invites applications for the position of Teaching Assistant Professor of Political Science. We are looking for a colleague who will teach three courses per semester in our undergraduate curriculum. The principal responsibility will be teaching in Comparative Politics, especially the introductory course, but the candidate may be invited to teach other courses, depending upon the department’s needs and the candidate’s areas of expertise. The ideal candidate will have a demonstrated record of successful undergraduate instruction. There are no research expectations associated with this position. This is a fixed term position with an initial appointment for three years and opportunities for re-appointment and advances contingent on performance and available funding. As part of the University’s teaching track, the position offers competitive benefits. More information on UNC’s career ladder and fixed term ranks is available here: https://facultyaffairs.unc.edu/policies-and-procedures/faculty-appointments/fixed-term-faculty-ranks/.
February 10, 2026 at 5:54 PM
Reposted by eric gonzalez juenke
jenikubota.bsky.social
About 10 years ago, I set out to better understand the drivers of radicalization and deradicalization into white supremacy. Work from our endeavors is starting to come out, and I am no longer concerned about sharing it.

I want to share the findings from one of these studies, published last March. 🧵
February 10, 2026 at 7:39 PM
egojunk.bsky.social
One of the things Vegan producers have nailed (besides breakfast sausages), is oddly the meat stick. Probably because meat sticks are mostly heavily flavored goop anyway. These taste like middle school. www.theherbivorousbutcher.com/products/a-l...
A la Carte Beef Stick Bundle
High-protein vegan Beef Sticks with 23g of plant-based protein per stick. A flavorful, grab-and-go snack perfect for quick energy anytime.
www.theherbivorousbutcher.com
February 10, 2026 at 9:23 PM
Reposted by eric gonzalez juenke
joshmccrain.bsky.social
new pre-print just dropped!

the nationalization of politics at the local level -- specifically within school districts -- affects turnover of school board members and superintendents.

osf.io/preprints/so...
February 10, 2026 at 8:21 PM
Reposted by eric gonzalez juenke
jayvanbavel.bsky.social
By age 2, toddlers understand ingroup loyalty

They realize that people have social identities and expert their social identity to take precedence in intergroup contexts even when it conflicts with their personal preferences
www.pnas.org/doi/epdf/10....
February 10, 2026 at 8:11 PM