Elias Eythorsson
@eliaseythorsson.bsky.social
Hospitalist. PhD in Epidemiology. Amateur statistician & prognostic modeler. Hope to grow up to be a trialist.
Reposted by Elias Eythorsson
'How to interpret hazard ratios', with @dominicmagirr.bsky.social and @timpmorris.bsky.social thestatsgeek.com/2026/01/15/h...
How to interpret hazard ratios
Survival analysis of time-to-event outcomes is very commonly performed using Cox’s famous proportional hazards model. The model estimates hazard ratios for the ‘effects’ of covari…
thestatsgeek.com
January 15, 2026 at 10:52 AM
'How to interpret hazard ratios', with @dominicmagirr.bsky.social and @timpmorris.bsky.social thestatsgeek.com/2026/01/15/h...
Reposted by Elias Eythorsson
v0.3.0 is now available on Firefox, soon to be available on Chrome and Microsoft Edge web stores,
Here's what's new:
You may now turn highlights into annotations!
Bundled pdf.js, to annotate PDFs, click the margin icon on your toolbar, as if it was to open the popup!
🧵
Here's what's new:
You may now turn highlights into annotations!
Bundled pdf.js, to annotate PDFs, click the margin icon on your toolbar, as if it was to open the popup!
🧵
February 11, 2026 at 12:01 PM
v0.3.0 is now available on Firefox, soon to be available on Chrome and Microsoft Edge web stores,
Here's what's new:
You may now turn highlights into annotations!
Bundled pdf.js, to annotate PDFs, click the margin icon on your toolbar, as if it was to open the popup!
🧵
Here's what's new:
You may now turn highlights into annotations!
Bundled pdf.js, to annotate PDFs, click the margin icon on your toolbar, as if it was to open the popup!
🧵
Reposted by Elias Eythorsson
A reminder of one of the loveliest pairs of siblings in the dictionary: ‘muscle’ and ‘mouse’. To the Roman imagination, the flexed biceps of a (typically naked) athlete resembled a rodent scuttling under the skin. ‘Musculus’, in Latin, means ‘little mouse’.
February 11, 2026 at 10:14 AM
A reminder of one of the loveliest pairs of siblings in the dictionary: ‘muscle’ and ‘mouse’. To the Roman imagination, the flexed biceps of a (typically naked) athlete resembled a rodent scuttling under the skin. ‘Musculus’, in Latin, means ‘little mouse’.
Reposted by Elias Eythorsson
are you using a DEFCON-based strategy to manage bowel motility in hospitalized patients?
having a clear, evidence-based treatment strategy improves efficacy & saves time
you don't need to redesign the wheel for every patient
& helpful to avert thermonuclear war
emcrit.org/ibcc/constip... #EMIMCC
having a clear, evidence-based treatment strategy improves efficacy & saves time
you don't need to redesign the wheel for every patient
& helpful to avert thermonuclear war
emcrit.org/ibcc/constip... #EMIMCC
February 10, 2026 at 2:32 PM
are you using a DEFCON-based strategy to manage bowel motility in hospitalized patients?
having a clear, evidence-based treatment strategy improves efficacy & saves time
you don't need to redesign the wheel for every patient
& helpful to avert thermonuclear war
emcrit.org/ibcc/constip... #EMIMCC
having a clear, evidence-based treatment strategy improves efficacy & saves time
you don't need to redesign the wheel for every patient
& helpful to avert thermonuclear war
emcrit.org/ibcc/constip... #EMIMCC
Reposted by Elias Eythorsson
I always find this image a bit misleading because it focus on the year studies are *published*, not when they are *started*.
Here is another version of that figure using the start year of study rather than publication year. Sample sizes in the early 1990s were larger than previous years.
Here is another version of that figure using the start year of study rather than publication year. Sample sizes in the early 1990s were larger than previous years.
February 2, 2026 at 11:44 AM
I always find this image a bit misleading because it focus on the year studies are *published*, not when they are *started*.
Here is another version of that figure using the start year of study rather than publication year. Sample sizes in the early 1990s were larger than previous years.
Here is another version of that figure using the start year of study rather than publication year. Sample sizes in the early 1990s were larger than previous years.
Reposted by Elias Eythorsson
You can specify relative position in ggplot with I(x) I(y).
E.g. annotate("text", x = I(.5), y = I(.5), label = "hello!") will place the text in the middle of the plot.
This, combined with alignment arguments is like 87% of the magic for me.
E.g. annotate("text", x = I(.5), y = I(.5), label = "hello!") will place the text in the middle of the plot.
This, combined with alignment arguments is like 87% of the magic for me.
December 26, 2025 at 7:05 AM
You can specify relative position in ggplot with I(x) I(y).
E.g. annotate("text", x = I(.5), y = I(.5), label = "hello!") will place the text in the middle of the plot.
This, combined with alignment arguments is like 87% of the magic for me.
E.g. annotate("text", x = I(.5), y = I(.5), label = "hello!") will place the text in the middle of the plot.
This, combined with alignment arguments is like 87% of the magic for me.
Reposted by Elias Eythorsson
I launched version 3.0 of my browser extension "Lazy Scholar", a free in-browser research assistant. It opens automatically when you load an academic article.
See: lazyscholar.org/2026/01/10/l...
See: lazyscholar.org/2026/01/10/l...
January 10, 2026 at 3:07 PM
I launched version 3.0 of my browser extension "Lazy Scholar", a free in-browser research assistant. It opens automatically when you load an academic article.
See: lazyscholar.org/2026/01/10/l...
See: lazyscholar.org/2026/01/10/l...
Reposted by Elias Eythorsson
Steph Curry Finally Finishes Eating Mouthguard
January 6, 2026 at 10:00 PM
Steph Curry Finally Finishes Eating Mouthguard
Reposted by Elias Eythorsson
I just discovered this Science & Futurism podcast by this guy named Isaac Arthur. It's just this super smart, seemingly very nice guy with a relaxing voice riffing about cosmology and physics and sci-fi concepts. He puts out an episode like every 3 days and I've enjoyed every episode so far.
Science & Futurism with Isaac Arthur
Science & Futurism with Isaac Arthur explores the long-term future of humanity through space exploration, advanced technology, and big-picture science. Each episode examines how civilization may grow ...
pca.st
January 4, 2026 at 9:20 AM
I just discovered this Science & Futurism podcast by this guy named Isaac Arthur. It's just this super smart, seemingly very nice guy with a relaxing voice riffing about cosmology and physics and sci-fi concepts. He puts out an episode like every 3 days and I've enjoyed every episode so far.
Reposted by Elias Eythorsson
Did you know? 2026 is one of the integers which, when divided by the sum of the squares of its digits, does nothing particularly remarkable
December 31, 2025 at 5:28 AM
Did you know? 2026 is one of the integers which, when divided by the sum of the squares of its digits, does nothing particularly remarkable
Reposted by Elias Eythorsson
We're doing the final sprint, and I think we're able to send the PDF of the forthcoming Bayesian Workflow book to the publisher in the next two weeks (500+ pages), which would mean it would be published some time next year
December 16, 2025 at 5:21 PM
We're doing the final sprint, and I think we're able to send the PDF of the forthcoming Bayesian Workflow book to the publisher in the next two weeks (500+ pages), which would mean it would be published some time next year
Reposted by Elias Eythorsson
Doing a bottom-to-top close edit now for errors and clarity. Just about 100 pages to go, not quite yet insane. Like some wetware LLM, I have been trained deeply on the distinctive text stylings of my individual coauthors. Feel I could produce novel utterances in any of their voices. Almost there!
We're doing the final sprint, and I think we're able to send the PDF of the forthcoming Bayesian Workflow book to the publisher in the next two weeks (500+ pages), which would mean it would be published some time next year
December 29, 2025 at 1:05 PM
Doing a bottom-to-top close edit now for errors and clarity. Just about 100 pages to go, not quite yet insane. Like some wetware LLM, I have been trained deeply on the distinctive text stylings of my individual coauthors. Feel I could produce novel utterances in any of their voices. Almost there!
Reposted by Elias Eythorsson
I am just learning of this 2015 retraction, adding to my "science as amateur software engineering" files. Seems they classified missing values as obs outcome of interest (divorce). Classified 32% of sample divorced, rather than true 5%. retractionwatch.com/2015/07/21/t...
December 18, 2025 at 9:06 AM
I am just learning of this 2015 retraction, adding to my "science as amateur software engineering" files. Seems they classified missing values as obs outcome of interest (divorce). Classified 32% of sample divorced, rather than true 5%. retractionwatch.com/2015/07/21/t...
Reposted by Elias Eythorsson
Ever stared at a table of regression coefficients & wondered what you're doing with your life?
Very excited to share this gentle introduction to another way of making sense of statistical models (w @vincentab.bsky.social)
Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf...
Website: j-rohrer.github.io/marginal-psy...
Very excited to share this gentle introduction to another way of making sense of statistical models (w @vincentab.bsky.social)
Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf...
Website: j-rohrer.github.io/marginal-psy...
August 25, 2025 at 11:49 AM
Ever stared at a table of regression coefficients & wondered what you're doing with your life?
Very excited to share this gentle introduction to another way of making sense of statistical models (w @vincentab.bsky.social)
Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf...
Website: j-rohrer.github.io/marginal-psy...
Very excited to share this gentle introduction to another way of making sense of statistical models (w @vincentab.bsky.social)
Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf...
Website: j-rohrer.github.io/marginal-psy...
Reposted by Elias Eythorsson
Reposted by Elias Eythorsson
Our guidance regarding performance measures for medical AI models is finally out!
- Stop bashing AUROC, although it does not settle things
- Calibration and clinical utility are key
- Show risk distributions
- Classification statistics (e.g. F1) are improper
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
- Stop bashing AUROC, although it does not settle things
- Calibration and clinical utility are key
- Show risk distributions
- Classification statistics (e.g. F1) are improper
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
Evaluation of performance measures in predictive artificial intelligence models to support medical decisions: overview and guidance
Numerous measures have been proposed to illustrate the performance of predictive artificial
intelligence (AI) models. Selecting appropriate performance measures is essential
for predictive AI models i...
www.thelancet.com
December 13, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Our guidance regarding performance measures for medical AI models is finally out!
- Stop bashing AUROC, although it does not settle things
- Calibration and clinical utility are key
- Show risk distributions
- Classification statistics (e.g. F1) are improper
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
- Stop bashing AUROC, although it does not settle things
- Calibration and clinical utility are key
- Show risk distributions
- Classification statistics (e.g. F1) are improper
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
Reposted by Elias Eythorsson
My love for em dashes is as old as the hills and as mighty as my inability to make a transition between thoughts literally any other way and I will be damned if I let the clankers take that from me
December 10, 2025 at 3:00 AM
My love for em dashes is as old as the hills and as mighty as my inability to make a transition between thoughts literally any other way and I will be damned if I let the clankers take that from me
Reposted by Elias Eythorsson
thank you yes that answers my question
December 5, 2025 at 4:08 AM
thank you yes that answers my question
Reposted by Elias Eythorsson
Reposted by Elias Eythorsson
If you have a manuscript ready to submit in mid-December do you:
a) Submit in December (when editors are bombarded with manuscripts)
b) Hold off until mid-January to let the editors have a damn holiday already
a) Submit in December (when editors are bombarded with manuscripts)
b) Hold off until mid-January to let the editors have a damn holiday already
November 28, 2025 at 11:30 AM
If you have a manuscript ready to submit in mid-December do you:
a) Submit in December (when editors are bombarded with manuscripts)
b) Hold off until mid-January to let the editors have a damn holiday already
a) Submit in December (when editors are bombarded with manuscripts)
b) Hold off until mid-January to let the editors have a damn holiday already
Reposted by Elias Eythorsson
{DAGassist} let's you process a DAG and estimate models giving {dagitty} input and baseline model #CausalSky #rstats
cran.r-project.org/web/packages... I think {ggdag} has more to offer for analysis of a DAG, while {DAGassist} is a one-stop package for classifying variables and getting estimates
cran.r-project.org/web/packages... I think {ggdag} has more to offer for analysis of a DAG, while {DAGassist} is a one-stop package for classifying variables and getting estimates
October 30, 2025 at 7:16 PM
{DAGassist} let's you process a DAG and estimate models giving {dagitty} input and baseline model #CausalSky #rstats
cran.r-project.org/web/packages... I think {ggdag} has more to offer for analysis of a DAG, while {DAGassist} is a one-stop package for classifying variables and getting estimates
cran.r-project.org/web/packages... I think {ggdag} has more to offer for analysis of a DAG, while {DAGassist} is a one-stop package for classifying variables and getting estimates
Reposted by Elias Eythorsson
every single tech idea is like “soon our robots will be capable of playing catch with your kid, freeing you up to spend more time working on your employers’ spreadsheets”
October 11, 2025 at 2:07 PM
every single tech idea is like “soon our robots will be capable of playing catch with your kid, freeing you up to spend more time working on your employers’ spreadsheets”
Reposted by Elias Eythorsson
you know what fair
October 10, 2025 at 9:35 AM
you know what fair
Reposted by Elias Eythorsson
CHATGPT: I understand where you're coming from. You worked really hard to get here, and now it's time to enjoy the fruit of your labors.
ISILDUR: So I should keep it? Elrond says I shouldn't
CHATGPT: The ring is precious. Sometimes friends don't have your best interests at heart.
ISILDUR: true
ISILDUR: So I should keep it? Elrond says I shouldn't
CHATGPT: The ring is precious. Sometimes friends don't have your best interests at heart.
ISILDUR: true
October 6, 2025 at 1:58 PM
CHATGPT: I understand where you're coming from. You worked really hard to get here, and now it's time to enjoy the fruit of your labors.
ISILDUR: So I should keep it? Elrond says I shouldn't
CHATGPT: The ring is precious. Sometimes friends don't have your best interests at heart.
ISILDUR: true
ISILDUR: So I should keep it? Elrond says I shouldn't
CHATGPT: The ring is precious. Sometimes friends don't have your best interests at heart.
ISILDUR: true
Reposted by Elias Eythorsson
We didn't randomize, and there was no allocation concealment or blinding, and we can't really be sure what intervention they got or how the outcomes were measured, but we emulated a trial by drawing a DAG.
August 31, 2025 at 3:21 PM
We didn't randomize, and there was no allocation concealment or blinding, and we can't really be sure what intervention they got or how the outcomes were measured, but we emulated a trial by drawing a DAG.