Tobias Forsnacke
@forsno.bsky.social
Reposted by Tobias Forsnacke
If the US for business reasons sells out Ukraine and European security, siding with Putin instead, then this would mean the destruction of the West as we know it.
November 24, 2025 at 6:02 AM
If the US for business reasons sells out Ukraine and European security, siding with Putin instead, then this would mean the destruction of the West as we know it.
Reposted by Tobias Forsnacke
The Nordic-Baltic Joint Statement - we will continue to arm Ukraine and strengthen Europe's defence. To the Ukrainian people: you are not alone🇺🇦
November 23, 2025 at 4:26 AM
The Nordic-Baltic Joint Statement - we will continue to arm Ukraine and strengthen Europe's defence. To the Ukrainian people: you are not alone🇺🇦
Reposted by Tobias Forsnacke
An eerie feeling to see the “bikini trolls“ phase of information operations on Twitter now being directly replicated on Bluesky exactly a decade later.
Here’s the latest one to “follow” me:
bsky.app/profile/lili...
Here’s the latest one to “follow” me:
bsky.app/profile/lili...
November 22, 2025 at 9:27 PM
An eerie feeling to see the “bikini trolls“ phase of information operations on Twitter now being directly replicated on Bluesky exactly a decade later.
Here’s the latest one to “follow” me:
bsky.app/profile/lili...
Here’s the latest one to “follow” me:
bsky.app/profile/lili...
Reposted by Tobias Forsnacke
My take on Trump's peace plan, and why he can't pressure Ukraine into capitulation.
Trump's ultimatum and the limits of US leverage over Ukraine
YouTube video by Anders Puck Nielsen
www.youtube.com
November 22, 2025 at 10:12 PM
My take on Trump's peace plan, and why he can't pressure Ukraine into capitulation.
Reposted by Tobias Forsnacke
Reposted by Tobias Forsnacke
LLMs give people with delusional belief systems a way to organise those beliefs. The model fills in gaps, supplies connective tissue, and wraps the madness in formal language.
It doesn't make the claims more credible to us, it just tidies them up.
It doesn't make the claims more credible to us, it just tidies them up.
November 19, 2025 at 2:22 PM
LLMs give people with delusional belief systems a way to organise those beliefs. The model fills in gaps, supplies connective tissue, and wraps the madness in formal language.
It doesn't make the claims more credible to us, it just tidies them up.
It doesn't make the claims more credible to us, it just tidies them up.
Reposted by Tobias Forsnacke
I've been talking to BBC insiders about why the Director General resigned and whether the talk of a 'coup' has any basis - here's my latest markurban.substack.com/p/the-bbc-is...
The BBC is Deep in Crisis
Some inside scoop on what's happened and why
markurban.substack.com
November 10, 2025 at 2:31 PM
I've been talking to BBC insiders about why the Director General resigned and whether the talk of a 'coup' has any basis - here's my latest markurban.substack.com/p/the-bbc-is...
Reposted by Tobias Forsnacke
As the situation in Pokrovsk becomes critical, and AFU reinforces the pocket to stabilize the flanks, there's considerable attention now to how this battle is unfolding. A few thoughts on the situation. 1/ (DeepStateMap)
November 7, 2025 at 9:14 PM
As the situation in Pokrovsk becomes critical, and AFU reinforces the pocket to stabilize the flanks, there's considerable attention now to how this battle is unfolding. A few thoughts on the situation. 1/ (DeepStateMap)
Reposted by Tobias Forsnacke
Skriver om förslaget om omorganisera de svenska underrättelsemyndigheterna i veckans Svensk Tidskrift.
October 31, 2025 at 2:08 PM
Skriver om förslaget om omorganisera de svenska underrättelsemyndigheterna i veckans Svensk Tidskrift.
Reposted by Tobias Forsnacke
In which I share a few thoughts on our eastern flank:
History, if we care to listen, is a great teacher. As with the collapse of Imperial Germany at the end of the war, the noose around Russia, militarily and economically, is tightening.
Time, this vital commodity, is not on Russia’s side.’
History, if we care to listen, is a great teacher. As with the collapse of Imperial Germany at the end of the war, the noose around Russia, militarily and economically, is tightening.
Time, this vital commodity, is not on Russia’s side.’
Nothing new on the Eastern Front
It used to be a war between armies, now it is a war of the people. War used to end by defeating the enemy’s army, now war ends by defeating the enemy’s people. None of us knew that before this war and...
kkrva.se
October 27, 2025 at 9:05 AM
In which I share a few thoughts on our eastern flank:
History, if we care to listen, is a great teacher. As with the collapse of Imperial Germany at the end of the war, the noose around Russia, militarily and economically, is tightening.
Time, this vital commodity, is not on Russia’s side.’
History, if we care to listen, is a great teacher. As with the collapse of Imperial Germany at the end of the war, the noose around Russia, militarily and economically, is tightening.
Time, this vital commodity, is not on Russia’s side.’
Reposted by Tobias Forsnacke
En helt felaktig fråga. Frågan är vad som bevarar frihet och självbestämmande. Det är inte att ge upp inför förtryckarens våld. #skavlan
October 23, 2025 at 6:07 PM
En helt felaktig fråga. Frågan är vad som bevarar frihet och självbestämmande. Det är inte att ge upp inför förtryckarens våld. #skavlan
Reposted by Tobias Forsnacke
I’ve been thinking a lot about the relationship between the (defence) industry and the state, and think that in Europe, we might actually need a new ‘military industrial complex’. Possibly one that also includes the civilian private sector more.
Some thoughts as shared in Lausanne a few days ago.
Some thoughts as shared in Lausanne a few days ago.
October 23, 2025 at 2:20 PM
I’ve been thinking a lot about the relationship between the (defence) industry and the state, and think that in Europe, we might actually need a new ‘military industrial complex’. Possibly one that also includes the civilian private sector more.
Some thoughts as shared in Lausanne a few days ago.
Some thoughts as shared in Lausanne a few days ago.
Reposted by Tobias Forsnacke
”We must not sit back and assume that a possible Russian attack would come in 2029 at the earliest.” - Tydliga budskap när de tyska tjänsterna vittnade inför Bundestag i veckan. Chefen BND sa oxå att man skulle gå i riktning mot att bli en försvarstjänst dvs motsatt riktning mot Bildts utredning. /1
German spy chief says Russia won't shy from military confrontation
Germany's foreign intelligence chief warned Monday that Russia posed a direct threat, and that the "icy peace" with the European Union could erupt at any moment into "heated confrontation".The warning...
uk.news.yahoo.com
October 19, 2025 at 4:46 PM
”We must not sit back and assume that a possible Russian attack would come in 2029 at the earliest.” - Tydliga budskap när de tyska tjänsterna vittnade inför Bundestag i veckan. Chefen BND sa oxå att man skulle gå i riktning mot att bli en försvarstjänst dvs motsatt riktning mot Bildts utredning. /1
Reposted by Tobias Forsnacke
Major Karlin presenterar slutsatser från HOP-uppsats som kan antyda att gamla sprickor inom Nato lever kvar. Sverige behöver navigera klokt i en komplex allians.
militardebatt.com/2025/10/19/n...
militardebatt.com/2025/10/19/n...
Natos stöd till Ukraina visar fortsatt splittring inom alliansen
Av major Marcus Karlin, Luftstridsskolan Jag har följt den tidigare debatten om akademiseringen av officersyrket och förstår både hattarna och mössornas argument. Faktum är dock att inom Högre Offi…
militardebatt.com
October 19, 2025 at 9:47 AM
Major Karlin presenterar slutsatser från HOP-uppsats som kan antyda att gamla sprickor inom Nato lever kvar. Sverige behöver navigera klokt i en komplex allians.
militardebatt.com/2025/10/19/n...
militardebatt.com/2025/10/19/n...
Reposted by Tobias Forsnacke
Doesn’t sound ideal.
"We cannot control who sees what, we cannot see what users are doing, and we cannot verify that the software itself is secure," the memo says.
www.reuters.com/business/aer...
"We cannot control who sees what, we cannot see what users are doing, and we cannot verify that the software itself is secure," the memo says.
www.reuters.com/business/aer...
Anduril and Palantir battlefield communication system has deep flaws, Army memo says
The much-needed modernization of the U.S. Army's battlefield communications network being undertaken by Anduril, Palantir and others is rife with "fundamental security" problems and vulnerabilities, and should be treated as a "very high risk," according to a recent internal Army memo.
www.reuters.com
October 4, 2025 at 7:05 PM
Doesn’t sound ideal.
"We cannot control who sees what, we cannot see what users are doing, and we cannot verify that the software itself is secure," the memo says.
www.reuters.com/business/aer...
"We cannot control who sees what, we cannot see what users are doing, and we cannot verify that the software itself is secure," the memo says.
www.reuters.com/business/aer...
Reposted by Tobias Forsnacke
Europeans worry Trump’s TruthSocial post means he’s walking away from Ukraine. My latest on what that isn’t necessarily a bad outcome: macspaunday.substack.com/p/in-praise-...
In Praise of Trumpy Boredom
Published exclusively on Substack
macspaunday.substack.com
September 26, 2025 at 12:28 AM
Europeans worry Trump’s TruthSocial post means he’s walking away from Ukraine. My latest on what that isn’t necessarily a bad outcome: macspaunday.substack.com/p/in-praise-...
Reposted by Tobias Forsnacke
Jag fick möjligheten att bjuda Tove Lifvendahl på kaffe och en rejäl pratstund om min resa från försvarsbloggare till förbandschef, samt de utmaningar och problem som såväl Försvarsmakten som Sverige står inför med den rådande omvärldsutvecklingen.
www.svd.se/a/Ey6P5a/sto...
www.svd.se/a/Ey6P5a/sto...
”Största hotet är vår oförmåga att förstå” | SvD Ledare
LEDARE. Han var en anonym och tongivande försvarsdebattör. Nu leder Carl Bergqvist utbildningen av svenska stridspiloter och vässar Sveriges förmåga att bedriva luftstrid.
www.svd.se
September 22, 2025 at 9:16 AM
Jag fick möjligheten att bjuda Tove Lifvendahl på kaffe och en rejäl pratstund om min resa från försvarsbloggare till förbandschef, samt de utmaningar och problem som såväl Försvarsmakten som Sverige står inför med den rådande omvärldsutvecklingen.
www.svd.se/a/Ey6P5a/sto...
www.svd.se/a/Ey6P5a/sto...
Not sure I’m buying the “NATO failed hard” interpretation that seems to dominate this site. Three QRAs intercepted the Russian MiGs and there’s a lot of escalation ladder to climb before getting to the use of force.
Isn’t this just back to Cold War everyday reality?
Isn’t this just back to Cold War everyday reality?
September 20, 2025 at 8:13 AM
Not sure I’m buying the “NATO failed hard” interpretation that seems to dominate this site. Three QRAs intercepted the Russian MiGs and there’s a lot of escalation ladder to climb before getting to the use of force.
Isn’t this just back to Cold War everyday reality?
Isn’t this just back to Cold War everyday reality?
Reposted by Tobias Forsnacke
1/ While today's incursion into Estonian airspace by three Russian MIG-31s is the most serious such incident in 30 years, it's not the first time that it's happened. It also highlights a strategic vulnerability for Estonia: it does not have a fully agreed border with Russia. ⬇️
September 19, 2025 at 8:59 PM
1/ While today's incursion into Estonian airspace by three Russian MIG-31s is the most serious such incident in 30 years, it's not the first time that it's happened. It also highlights a strategic vulnerability for Estonia: it does not have a fully agreed border with Russia. ⬇️
Reposted by Tobias Forsnacke
Quite possibly. But why would China do this?
Kellogg also said the war could end “tomorrow” if China halted support to Russia.
September 13, 2025 at 7:06 PM
Quite possibly. But why would China do this?
Reposted by Tobias Forsnacke
A curious phenomenon in the swirling commentary: people seeing comparisons between Charlie Kirk and Horst Wessel and/or his murder and the Reichstag fire, and then appearing more concerned that the American right may not know history than that it may know it very well and see it as a role model.
I was expecting the Reichstag Fire parallel to be made, but I did not expect it to come from the right.
September 12, 2025 at 8:13 AM
A curious phenomenon in the swirling commentary: people seeing comparisons between Charlie Kirk and Horst Wessel and/or his murder and the Reichstag fire, and then appearing more concerned that the American right may not know history than that it may know it very well and see it as a role model.
Reposted by Tobias Forsnacke
Rationality is vastly overrated.
September 11, 2025 at 4:01 PM
Rationality is vastly overrated.
Reposted by Tobias Forsnacke
No no, you don’t understand. Trump was a white hat pedophile.
September 6, 2025 at 11:12 AM
No no, you don’t understand. Trump was a white hat pedophile.
Reposted by Tobias Forsnacke
“Coalition of the willing”, “security guarantees” and now a “buffer zone”: the meaningless European pantomime continues while Russia contentedly proceeds with its murderous campaign.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=-PYB...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=-PYB...
Ukrainian DMZ is ‘unfeasible’ and only benefits Putin | Keir Giles
YouTube video by Times Radio
www.youtube.com
August 29, 2025 at 9:09 PM
“Coalition of the willing”, “security guarantees” and now a “buffer zone”: the meaningless European pantomime continues while Russia contentedly proceeds with its murderous campaign.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=-PYB...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=-PYB...