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Heinz Brandenburg @heinzbrandenburg.bsky.social · 1h

At some point respondents should start accepting that credibility is by now a very low bar in British politics.

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Heinz Brandenburg @heinzbrandenburg.bsky.social · 1h

How about the altogether cuddlier absolute monarchy route of Liechtenstein?

Heinz Brandenburg @heinzbrandenburg.bsky.social · 7h

For all his faults, Gordon Brown has always been a rare exception among Prime Ministers of this country - smart and conscientious.

The Guardian @theguardian.com · 7h

Don’t fall for the authoritarian hype – Reform and the hard right can be stopped in their tracks | Gordon Brown

From the US to Europe and Asia, grievances are being exploited to gain power. But moderate voices are still in tune with the majority, says former prime minister Gordon Brown

www.theguardian.com

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Heinz Brandenburg @heinzbrandenburg.bsky.social · 2d

I know.

It is ridiculous. But two of those minor parties on 17% still think of themselves as very big players. And won't stop doing so even when facing near wipe-out during the next election campaign.

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Heinz Brandenburg @heinzbrandenburg.bsky.social · 2d

Unlikely after an election in which Reform could win 2/3 of seats.

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Heinz Brandenburg @heinzbrandenburg.bsky.social · 2d

Yes. And in the same vein compensation to slaves and their ancestors has been also to the tune of what was deemed necessary.

Heinz Brandenburg @heinzbrandenburg.bsky.social · 2d

I am obviously not saying that that is how the figure was calculated. Just one way of looking at it.

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Heinz Brandenburg @heinzbrandenburg.bsky.social · 2d

Multiplied by the average slave holder compensation, that would come to more than 1.5 trillion pounds.

Not sure whether slaves and their ancestors being compensated to the tune of ten times of what slave owners "deserved" should be seen as too much or too little.

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Heinz Brandenburg @heinzbrandenburg.bsky.social · 2d

By my back of the envelop calculations the 18 trillion would mean paying about 10 times as much compensation per slave as Britain has paid to slave holders.

£20m paid to slaveholders, of which there were around 46,000

And Britain bought and sold around 3.5m slaves.

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Reposted by Heinz Brandenburg

Dermot Casey @dermotcasey.bsky.social · 2d

Irish TDs ”remembers” Margaret Thatcher Spitting Image sketch as anecdote about Charlie Haughey is something

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Heinz Brandenburg @heinzbrandenburg.bsky.social · 3d

Wouldn't want the bubble to burst without being in it.

www.reuters.com/world/china/...

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Heinz Brandenburg @heinzbrandenburg.bsky.social · 3d

This is a tragedy.
They could have just asked for volunteers to help.

Also, that would have given a good reason for quotation marks around the word destroyed in the headline.

www.thenational.scot/news/2552768...

7000 litres of beer 'destroyed' after Storm Amy cancels Scottish city's Oktoberfest

ORGANISERS behind Edinburgh's Oktoberfest said they were forced to destroy 7000 litres of “good” beer after Storm Amy cancelled the event ...

www.thenational.scot

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Heinz Brandenburg @heinzbrandenburg.bsky.social · 3d

Schopenhauer: "Eine grobe Bratwurst besiegt jedes Argument."

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David Attewell @davidattewell6.bsky.social · 4d

@dpzollinger.bsky.social and I are thrilled "Cleavage Politics in Western Democracies" is out as an SI at @wepsocial.bsky.social!

Its papers explore the foundations of the cleavage pitting new left against radical right parties, and how it compares to the classic cleavages of Lipset & Rokkan:

🧵⬇️

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Heinz Brandenburg @heinzbrandenburg.bsky.social · 6d

I have so many books for which there might just never come the right time.

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Heinz Brandenburg @heinzbrandenburg.bsky.social · 6d

Not sure. I think most of those still loyal Tory voters have been voting all their lives (and we know they tend to be old). Takes quite a lot for such voters to abstain because they also tend to still feel a duty to vote.

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Heinz Brandenburg @heinzbrandenburg.bsky.social · 6d

But second: they see themselves and LD as moderate, just on opposite sides of the aisle. While they see Reform as extreme.
So aside from absolute distance, they would also face the questions of whether they prefer moderates to their left or extremes to their right. Which could beat abs. distance.

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Heinz Brandenburg @heinzbrandenburg.bsky.social · 6d

A see a couple of caveats. First of all, it is not "that voter" but the average position of remaining Tory loyals. That average loyalist is about twice as far from LD as from Ref. In other words, maybe 2/3 could be closer to Reform, 1/3 closer to LD.

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Heinz Brandenburg @heinzbrandenburg.bsky.social · 6d

Not small-c, just small. Very small. In support as in ambition.

Heinz Brandenburg @heinzbrandenburg.bsky.social · 6d

Long overdue that we get a new meaning for PPE. Price per exhibit.

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Heinz Brandenburg @heinzbrandenburg.bsky.social · 7d

Similar to why people like chicken. Things should not taste of anything.

And farmed salmon is a terrible thing on all levels.

Heinz Brandenburg @heinzbrandenburg.bsky.social · 8d

Building bridges. To English neonazis.

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Heinz Brandenburg @heinzbrandenburg.bsky.social · 8d

It now does because no party dominated urban politics, but AfD and CDU/CSU dominate politics outside major cities, pretty much everywhere if we just look at winners and not top 2. Divvying up the countryside and small towns between them. A mirror image instead of a clear East-West divide.

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Heinz Brandenburg @heinzbrandenburg.bsky.social · 8d

This is a new pattern, also that in general population density is now strongly correlated with party system fragmentation, as shown below (in that case colour coding indicates the constituency winner).

That is a pattern that never existed in Germany to such an extent before, if at all.

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Heinz Brandenburg @heinzbrandenburg.bsky.social · 8d

And that makes rural voters look perhaps even more socially conservative than in the "good old days" when for example the CSU could win up to 60% across the rural parts of Bavaria. Now they have to share that with a more reactionary counterpart.

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