Reposted by Rob Johns
Turnout decline accounted for (45% compared to 54% from 5 years ago) and petty party gossip aside, there are regions in Southern Italy where a non-fragmented left can win. In this case, with a "lefty" M5S candidate (Fico) moving towards the PD and vice versa.
Italy, Final election result:
Campania regional parliament election
PD (S&D): 18.4% (+1.5)
FdI (ECR): 11.9% (+5.9)
FI (EPP): 10.7% (+5.6)
M5S (LEFT): 9.1% (-0.8)
ATA (~S&D): 8.3% (+8.3)
AC-PSI (S&D): 5.9% (+3.3)
CR/IV (RE): 5.8% (-1.6)
...
+/- vs. Last election result
➤ europeelects.eu/italy
Campania regional parliament election
PD (S&D): 18.4% (+1.5)
FdI (ECR): 11.9% (+5.9)
FI (EPP): 10.7% (+5.6)
M5S (LEFT): 9.1% (-0.8)
ATA (~S&D): 8.3% (+8.3)
AC-PSI (S&D): 5.9% (+3.3)
CR/IV (RE): 5.8% (-1.6)
...
+/- vs. Last election result
➤ europeelects.eu/italy
November 25, 2025 at 10:03 AM
Turnout decline accounted for (45% compared to 54% from 5 years ago) and petty party gossip aside, there are regions in Southern Italy where a non-fragmented left can win. In this case, with a "lefty" M5S candidate (Fico) moving towards the PD and vice versa.
Reposted by Rob Johns
NEWS -
The Politics of Imperial Nostalgia - https://cup.org/4p1QbRA
"right-wing opposition to criticism of the imperial past is stronger than left-wing support"
- Christopher Claassen & @danjdevine.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
The Politics of Imperial Nostalgia - https://cup.org/4p1QbRA
"right-wing opposition to criticism of the imperial past is stronger than left-wing support"
- Christopher Claassen & @danjdevine.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
November 24, 2025 at 2:50 PM
NEWS -
The Politics of Imperial Nostalgia - https://cup.org/4p1QbRA
"right-wing opposition to criticism of the imperial past is stronger than left-wing support"
- Christopher Claassen & @danjdevine.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
The Politics of Imperial Nostalgia - https://cup.org/4p1QbRA
"right-wing opposition to criticism of the imperial past is stronger than left-wing support"
- Christopher Claassen & @danjdevine.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
Reposted by Rob Johns
Postdoc call‼️
I am opening a call for a postdoctoral position within my ERC project CONSENT.
Come to Madrid to be part of my research team and more broadly of the @ipp-csic.bsky.social community.
Application deadline: December 10th.
Call details: tinyurl.com/yfu83p9m
I am opening a call for a postdoctoral position within my ERC project CONSENT.
Come to Madrid to be part of my research team and more broadly of the @ipp-csic.bsky.social community.
Application deadline: December 10th.
Call details: tinyurl.com/yfu83p9m
Dropbox
tinyurl.com
November 24, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Postdoc call‼️
I am opening a call for a postdoctoral position within my ERC project CONSENT.
Come to Madrid to be part of my research team and more broadly of the @ipp-csic.bsky.social community.
Application deadline: December 10th.
Call details: tinyurl.com/yfu83p9m
I am opening a call for a postdoctoral position within my ERC project CONSENT.
Come to Madrid to be part of my research team and more broadly of the @ipp-csic.bsky.social community.
Application deadline: December 10th.
Call details: tinyurl.com/yfu83p9m
“Can you pinpoint the moment that you realised that civilisation was utterly irretrievable?”
November 24, 2025 at 10:09 AM
“Can you pinpoint the moment that you realised that civilisation was utterly irretrievable?”
Reposted by Rob Johns
Typically entertaining piece with a review of the research set out here: bsky.app/profile/turn...
Latest piece for the @thehousemag.bsky.social, on the island of strangers speech and similar. Also ft Bob Hawke.
www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...
www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...
The Professor Will See You Now: Island of strangers
Lessons in political science. This week: island of strangers
www.politicshome.com
November 20, 2025 at 12:45 PM
Typically entertaining piece with a review of the research set out here: bsky.app/profile/turn...
Reposted by Rob Johns
I still don't see how it can happen this time with 119 sitting Conservative MPs and Reform way ahead of the Tories in the polls. Farage will correctly expect to win many of those Tory seats. A deal either needs Farage to stand aside in seats he'd win, or the Tories to stand aside in seats they hold
November 20, 2025 at 9:45 AM
I still don't see how it can happen this time with 119 sitting Conservative MPs and Reform way ahead of the Tories in the polls. Farage will correctly expect to win many of those Tory seats. A deal either needs Farage to stand aside in seats he'd win, or the Tories to stand aside in seats they hold
Reposted by Rob Johns
It's depressingly compelling in a way just how closely the political and social reaction to social media mirrors the advent of the printing press.
It’s the exclusive everyone wanted, the story that will win next year’s Pulitzer…
I can reveal London’s giant AI generated Christmas artwork, the subject of much online mockery, is being torn down - and I honestly *genuinely* think you’ll never guess why. www.londoncentric.media/p/ai-artwork...
I can reveal London’s giant AI generated Christmas artwork, the subject of much online mockery, is being torn down - and I honestly *genuinely* think you’ll never guess why. www.londoncentric.media/p/ai-artwork...
London's giant AI artwork to be torn down
The bizarre story of why a much-talked-about creation is being torn down. Plus: Docklands Light Railway extension, giant laser stalks the night sky, and more tales of Android phone theft rejection.
www.londoncentric.media
November 20, 2025 at 10:00 AM
It's depressingly compelling in a way just how closely the political and social reaction to social media mirrors the advent of the printing press.
Reposted by Rob Johns
Strongly suspect that this is what will happen here in 28/9. Tories will replace Badenoch with a leader prepared to try it and Farage (as per 2019 but this time as the senior partner) will continue to deny he'll do a stand-down deal - right up until the point he does one.
French conservatives are inching towards a pact with Le Pen that could enable a far-right takeover of the country | Paul Taylor
In trying to woo Le Pen’s voters, Les Républicains risk destroying France’s Gaullist legacy and putting Paris on a collision course with the EU, says Paul Taylor of the European Policy Centre
www.theguardian.com
November 20, 2025 at 9:14 AM
Strongly suspect that this is what will happen here in 28/9. Tories will replace Badenoch with a leader prepared to try it and Farage (as per 2019 but this time as the senior partner) will continue to deny he'll do a stand-down deal - right up until the point he does one.
Reposted by Rob Johns
Yesterday, we put out a report on the most important issues to voters.
We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk).
But that doesn't tell the full story.
Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):
We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk).
But that doesn't tell the full story.
Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):
November 17, 2025 at 11:41 AM
Yesterday, we put out a report on the most important issues to voters.
We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk).
But that doesn't tell the full story.
Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):
We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk).
But that doesn't tell the full story.
Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):
I (partly) blame the lecturers.
Fascinating how often political commentary in the UK still refers to the median voter. In a multi-dimensional space with salience endogenous to positions, it‘s unclear to me who that should be. In a multi-party system, winning the median voter is of course not necessarily a vote-maximizing strategy.
November 17, 2025 at 11:05 AM
I (partly) blame the lecturers.
Reposted by Rob Johns
Labour now down to 18% in our latest @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social voting intention, the joint lowest we've ever had them - prev. May 2009 (expenses scandal, economic crisis). What's happening in 3 charts ...
November 17, 2025 at 10:49 AM
Labour now down to 18% in our latest @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social voting intention, the joint lowest we've ever had them - prev. May 2009 (expenses scandal, economic crisis). What's happening in 3 charts ...
Reposted by Rob Johns
Here’s one for the museum of 2025, a bitesize US political daily briefing
The attorney general and the FBI director, a manosphere podcaster bro, pulled into the situation room a member of Congress best known for getting kicked out of a Beetlejuice musical for drunkenly giving her date a handy, in order to pressure her about the president's child sex trafficking scandal.
November 13, 2025 at 8:29 AM
Here’s one for the museum of 2025, a bitesize US political daily briefing
Finally some good news.
Three preregistered experiments with prolific participants (N = 2,254) found no evidence for experimenter demand effects
osf.io/preprints/ps...
osf.io/preprints/ps...
November 12, 2025 at 2:38 PM
Finally some good news.
Reposted by Rob Johns
🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇
November 11, 2025 at 9:00 AM
🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇
Reposted by Rob Johns
Two of the most counterproductive political system choices you can make, which increase corruption but sound good, are:
1) low salaries for elected office holders and bureaucrats
2) term limits for legislators
1) low salaries for elected office holders and bureaucrats
2) term limits for legislators
ryan is right. people HATE hearing this. but it is just a matter of simple incentives. if you want a more representative legislature — and if you want a legislature more resistant to corruption — then you need to jack up the salaries. serving as mayor of NYC should net you a cool 500K *at least*
people hate hearing this but it's 100% true, creating a huge pay gap between political leaders, their staffs, and other elites is a recipe for corruption. of course the flip side of that is taxes on the rich should be jacked way the hell up
November 8, 2025 at 6:43 PM
Two of the most counterproductive political system choices you can make, which increase corruption but sound good, are:
1) low salaries for elected office holders and bureaucrats
2) term limits for legislators
1) low salaries for elected office holders and bureaucrats
2) term limits for legislators
Q: How important is a representative sample?
A:
A:
November 5, 2025 at 4:59 PM
Q: How important is a representative sample?
A:
A:
If you’re a methods teacher who tells students that they can’t say anything about a result with a p-value of >.05, then you’re part of the problem so there’s no point looking all scandalised at this.
Look at the distribution of z-values from medical research!
November 4, 2025 at 10:40 PM
If you’re a methods teacher who tells students that they can’t say anything about a result with a p-value of >.05, then you’re part of the problem so there’s no point looking all scandalised at this.
Reposted by Rob Johns
ANES Data Release! electionstudies.org/data-center/...
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
2016-2020-2024-panel-merged-study - ANES | American National Election Studies
electionstudies.org
November 1, 2025 at 8:47 PM
ANES Data Release! electionstudies.org/data-center/...
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
Reposted by Rob Johns
The job of a good message isn't to say what is popular. The job of a good message is to make popular what we need said.
MAGA and Madison Avenue have known and exploited this. But it also very much applies to campaigns for good.
www.weekendreading.net/p/bringing-a...
MAGA and Madison Avenue have known and exploited this. But it also very much applies to campaigns for good.
www.weekendreading.net/p/bringing-a...
Bringing a Survey to a Gun Fight
“Pollingism” Has Failed Democrats and Voters. Here’s Why, and What to Do Instead.
www.weekendreading.net
November 3, 2025 at 4:13 AM
The job of a good message isn't to say what is popular. The job of a good message is to make popular what we need said.
MAGA and Madison Avenue have known and exploited this. But it also very much applies to campaigns for good.
www.weekendreading.net/p/bringing-a...
MAGA and Madison Avenue have known and exploited this. But it also very much applies to campaigns for good.
www.weekendreading.net/p/bringing-a...
I suppose one option for those beleaguered city executives might be to pay their graduate entrants a bit more.
November 3, 2025 at 7:08 AM
I suppose one option for those beleaguered city executives might be to pay their graduate entrants a bit more.
Reposted by Rob Johns
Nano-targeting is not a persuasive weapon: it is a dissuasion and polarization weapon. New paper out osf.io/preprints/so... with the brilliant Thomas Robinson, @simonhix.bsky.social and @fresejoris.bsky.social – the first to quantify the perverse incentives/inherent democratic dangers of this tech.
OSF
osf.io
October 16, 2025 at 7:45 AM
Nano-targeting is not a persuasive weapon: it is a dissuasion and polarization weapon. New paper out osf.io/preprints/so... with the brilliant Thomas Robinson, @simonhix.bsky.social and @fresejoris.bsky.social – the first to quantify the perverse incentives/inherent democratic dangers of this tech.
Reposted by Rob Johns
team of postdocs in the lab meeting proposing the 15th joint paper when I ask them when we will find time to write it
October 16, 2025 at 11:56 AM
team of postdocs in the lab meeting proposing the 15th joint paper when I ask them when we will find time to write it
Reposted by Rob Johns
I asked ChatGPT to write a brief history of Winston Churchill in the style of Boris Johnson and I think it's fair to say this sort of op-ed is easy to mimic...
October 16, 2025 at 8:48 AM
I asked ChatGPT to write a brief history of Winston Churchill in the style of Boris Johnson and I think it's fair to say this sort of op-ed is easy to mimic...