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Reposted by Jatan Buch

Sebastian Lerch @sebastianlerch.bsky.social · Jun 5

📣 New preprint "Probabilistic measures afford fair comparisons of AIWP and NWP model output" with Tilmann Gneiting, Tobias Biegert, Kristof Kraus, Eva Walz and Alexander Jordan available at arxiv.org/abs/2506.03744. Some details below 🧵

Probabilistic measures afford fair comparisons of AIWP and NWP model output

We introduce a new measure for fair and meaningful comparisons of single-valued output from artificial intelligence based weather prediction (AIWP) and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, calle...

arxiv.org

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Jatan Buch @jatanbuch.bsky.social · Apr 26

Useful law for estimating the overall speedup from ML/GPU optimizing subcomponents of scientific code

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amdahl%...

Amdahl's law - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

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Jatan Buch @jatanbuch.bsky.social · Mar 20

AI NWP models will solve this, right? RIGHT?

Dennis Mersereau 🛰️ @wxdam.com · Mar 20

NWS just announced a major reduction in upper-air (weather balloon) observations due to staffing shortages.

Omaha and Rapid City losing balloon launches altogether, with launches cut in half at 6 other sites.

Losing this many launches could affect severe weather forecasting and computer models.

Weather balloon cuts at Omaha NE and Rapid City SD

Balloon launches suspended to once per day at six locations in the middle of the U.S.

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Jatan Buch @jatanbuch.bsky.social · Mar 15

Thanks for the inquiry, Carly! While very interesting, paleoecology is not my area of expertise and I recommend you reach out to @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social or @mhurteau.bsky.social for a comment instead.

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investNscience @investnscience.bsky.social · Mar 7

Ever been told to ""sleep on it""? 😴 @alanajaskir.bsky.social’s research shows how snoozing helps your brain learn!

#sleepbenefits #replay #hippocampus #academicsky #standupforscience

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Reposted by Jatan Buch

Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · Mar 6

After losing 2 flight directors (my old job), the NOAA Hurricane Hunters are down to minimum staffing for continuous hurricane flights. And if I still had my old job, I'd be looking for new employment before the next onslaught of cuts.
yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/03/noaa...

yaleclimateconnections.org

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Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social · Mar 6

Potentially interesting job for the NOAA crowd - Verisk, one of the biggest modeling firms in the insurance industry, is looking for an experienced atmospheric scientist.

Charles Jackson is hiring, who was on my PhD committee and is just a delight to work with, aside from being a kickass scientist.

Verisk hiring Senior Atmospheric Scientist in Boston, MA | LinkedIn

Posted 12:45:15 AM. Job DescriptionVerisk’s Extreme Event Solutions Research Department in Boston is seeking a…See this and similar jobs on LinkedIn.

www.linkedin.com

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Jatan Buch @jatanbuch.bsky.social · Mar 6

Anecdotally, even, most of my peers who accepted faculty positions switched their research to focus more on public health impacts of climate/weather. Which is great! However, it is in no small part because NIH until recently used to be a much larger pool of new funding than NSF/DOE.

Jatan Buch @jatanbuch.bsky.social · Mar 6

Provocative q: why admit more PhDs when static funding for the past decade or so (adjusted for inflation) has made tenure track offers in most areas quite limited?

This is a broader point beyond the completely egg-headed funding cuts that appear to be on the horizon.

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Mike Pritchard @mikepritchard.bsky.social · Feb 25

Pleased to share my views in a new TEDx talk on how AI offers compelling new ways to simulate the Earth with unprecedented resolution and interactivity:
youtu.be/I0nxFLh-iBg?...

AI is making whole earth simulation possible--why that matters | Mike Pritchard | TEDxBoston

YouTube video by TEDx Talks

youtu.be

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Reposted by Jatan Buch

Pierre Gentine @pierregentine.bsky.social · Feb 21

Excited to share some great collaboration on a new data assimilation framework with transformer encoding arxiv.org/pdf/2502.02884. Exciting times for data assimilation with ML

arxiv.org

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Reposted by Jatan Buch

LEAP-STC @leapstc.bsky.social · Feb 19

☀️ APPS ARE OPEN for our Summer'25 MOMENTUM FELLOWSHIP ☀️

- For data sci PhD students @ a U.S. institution
- Mentorship of REU students
- June 9 - August 1
- 5 research projects based in NYC and/or Boulder, CO

📆 INFO + APPLY by 3/15/25: leap.columbia.edu/education-2/...

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Jatan Buch @jatanbuch.bsky.social · Feb 18

Kyleen Liao did stellar work with @karadlamb.bsky.social, Pierre Gentine, and me a while ago on simulating PM2.5 emissions from California wildfires using graph neural networks (GNNs). Her paper with cool new model validation results is out now: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Simulating the air quality impact of prescribed fires using graph neural network-based PM2.5 forecasts | Environmental Data Science | Cambridge Core

Simulating the air quality impact of prescribed fires using graph neural network-based PM2.5 forecasts - Volume 4

www.cambridge.org

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Reposted by Jatan Buch

David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · Feb 16

Words of wisdom from @naomioreskes.bsky.social's Science on a Mission.

“Few patrons have ever supported science for the love of knowledge alone; most have had orthogonal (or at least oblique) motivations, be they prestige, power, or the solution of practical problems, and the available evidence suggests that those motivations make a difference.”

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · Feb 10

1/n
Please see our new paper in Nature Communications!

We used 1,851 tree-ring fire-scar sites and contemporary fire perimeters to quantify the prevalence of wildfire from 1600-1880 compared to 1984-2022. 🧪🌍🔥

Our key findings are as follows ...

A fire deficit persists across diverse North American forests despite recent increases in area burned - Nature Communications

Across many North American forests, recent years with exceptional area burned are not unprecedented when considering the multi-century perspective offered by fire-scarred trees. Nevertheless, abundant...

www.nature.com

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Jatan Buch @jatanbuch.bsky.social · Jan 27

Same. They were creative under constraints, now everyone benefits. Also a strong argument for open-sourcing all code.

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Jatan Buch @jatanbuch.bsky.social · Jan 25

Also consistent with my experience that PNAS is actually a terrible journal. I know of several PNAS papers that were either straight wrong or you could not reproduce their results.

Scott Kominers @skominers.bsky.social · Jan 25

Utterly astounding to me that it's possible to publish a paper in PNAS that shows a correlation between having a "hit paper" as a postdoc and later academic success... www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

PNAS

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), a peer reviewed journal of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) - an authoritative source of high-impact, original research that broadly spans...

www.pnas.org

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Reposted by Jatan Buch

Michael Wara @michaelwara.bsky.social · Jan 12

I should have led off this thread with the statement: this is how to think about wildlife risk and what we can do about it. No safety intervention makes a community perfectly safe. Many reduce risk. It is a layered and cumulative effort. Think about auto safety to understand what I mean:

Michael Wara @michaelwara.bsky.social · Jan 11

People die in car crashes. A lot of people. In 2022 in the US, about 46,000. But if we had not made the safety improvements in cars that we have over the past half century - and had the same death rate as a result, 153,000 people would have died.

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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · Jan 9

Is there a link between #ClimateChange & increasing risk/severity of #wildfire in California--including the still-unfolding disaster? Yes. Is climate change the only factor at play? No, of course not. So what's really going on? [Thread] #CAfire #CAwx #LAfires iopscience.iop.org/a...

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Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social · Jan 8

Notice power generation - high wind events are bad news for transmission lines.

Suspect these statistics are worse for structures/fatalities - high wind fires make up 12% of burn area in western US, but 52% of lives/60% of structures lost, via @climate-guy.bsky.social @pyrogeog.bsky.social research

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Randall Munroe @xkcd.com · Jan 2

Skew-T Log-P xkcd.com/3032

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Zeke Hausfather @hausfath.bsky.social · Dec 1

“With the rising costs of and vulnerability to extreme weather in a changing climate for the United States, dismantling or defunding NOAA would be a catastrophic error”

Good op-ed from Ryan Maue in todays @nytimes: www.nytimes.com/2024/12/01/o...

Opinion | Republicans Would Regret Letting Elon Musk Ax Weather Forecasting

Everyone benefits from government weather forecasting. Republicans have the chance to make it better.

www.nytimes.com

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Reposted by Jatan Buch

Ashesh Chattopadhyay @ashesh6810.bsky.social · Nov 25

Arvind, me, and Jonah released a new pre-print on some pen and paper analysis of fundamental failure modes and old school stability analysis for neural PDEs typically used in AI for Science application. arxiv.org/abs/2411.15101. 1/n

What You See is Not What You Get: Neural Partial Differential Equations and The Illusion of Learning

Differentiable Programming for scientific machine learning (SciML) has recently seen considerable interest and success, as it directly embeds neural networks inside PDEs, often called as NeuralPDEs, d...

arxiv.org

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Jatan Buch @jatanbuch.bsky.social · Nov 23

Is there a similar conversation we can have among climate scientists as the new administration freezes or cuts federal funding levels for climate related research? Should we be more private sector focused in our collaborations while also doing more public outreach in non-university spaces?

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez @aoc.bsky.social · Nov 22

There have been a lot of times where I feel like we need to have honest discussions on the left about what has worked and what hasn’t, share observations without judgement, but it feels like there isn’t much space for it. I think it’s holding us back.

I wonder how and where we can accomplish that.

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Reposted by Jatan Buch

Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social · Nov 13

We have an opinion piece at the NYT on the need to operationalize some aspects of climate science. 🧪

Thoughts welcome!

(Gift link)
www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/o...

Opinion | Climate Science Can’t Keep Up With the Warming Planet

We need more timely updates in response to the rapid changes to the climate.

www.nytimes.com

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