Jeff Singer
@jeffsinger.bsky.social
Managing Editor at The Downballot. Email jeffsinger -at- the-downballot -dot- com
Pinned
Jeff Singer
@jeffsinger.bsky.social
· Apr 24
It's here! The Downballot is so stoked to share our calculations of the results of the 2024 presidential election for all 435 congressional districts!
Bookmark this must-have data set, generously sponsored by Grassroots Analytics, right here: the-db.co/presbycd
And much more in this 🧵 below!
Bookmark this must-have data set, generously sponsored by Grassroots Analytics, right here: the-db.co/presbycd
And much more in this 🧵 below!
The Downballot's calculations of presidential election results by congressional district, sponsored by Grassroots Analytics
Our one-of-a-kind collection spans from 2008 to the present
the-db.co
This took a ton of work, but as Robert Caro says, "It’s not about how long it takes to make. It’s about whether it will endure."
Reposted by Jeff Singer
"They're going to put ICE at the polls in the midterms!"
Cool, but why aren't they doing it now? Like there are elections happening all the time. Some of which are big deals, like the one for the Wisconsin Supreme Court and the NYC mayoral election. Why is Trump not deploying ICE for those?
Cool, but why aren't they doing it now? Like there are elections happening all the time. Some of which are big deals, like the one for the Wisconsin Supreme Court and the NYC mayoral election. Why is Trump not deploying ICE for those?
We’re looking at another very big Dem overperformance tonight—in a Trump+13 district. Dem Chasity Martinez is up 61-39 with more than half the vote in. Notably, like in TX last weekend, the e-day vote has been even *better* for her than the early vote. voterportal.sos.la.gov/graphical
February 8, 2026 at 3:14 AM
"They're going to put ICE at the polls in the midterms!"
Cool, but why aren't they doing it now? Like there are elections happening all the time. Some of which are big deals, like the one for the Wisconsin Supreme Court and the NYC mayoral election. Why is Trump not deploying ICE for those?
Cool, but why aren't they doing it now? Like there are elections happening all the time. Some of which are big deals, like the one for the Wisconsin Supreme Court and the NYC mayoral election. Why is Trump not deploying ICE for those?
Much of political coverage still insists Trump may be unpopular, but the Democratic brand is so bad it might be a wash. But here we see Democrats scoring huge wins in red Southern districts ...
This race shared some compelling similarities with last weekend's Texas shocker. The Democrat ran on affordability and education, while the Republican said voters should elect a candidate who could join the GOP's supermajority in the legislature—in other words, vote for me because I'm a Republican.
February 8, 2026 at 3:25 AM
Much of political coverage still insists Trump may be unpopular, but the Democratic brand is so bad it might be a wash. But here we see Democrats scoring huge wins in red Southern districts ...
Reposted by Jeff Singer
"Since Trump returned to the White House, Democrats have picked up eight Republican-controlled districts through special elections, as well as 18 seats in New Jersey and Virginia during those states’ regularly scheduled contests last November. Republicans have flipped none."
The GOP just had its best chance to finally flip a legislative seat in Trump 2.0. Democrats had other ideas.
Chasity Martinez just won a rural Trump+13 in the Louisiana House in a 24-point landslide—an overperformance of 37 points.
Our complete writeup on this remarkable outcome -->
Chasity Martinez just won a rural Trump+13 in the Louisiana House in a 24-point landslide—an overperformance of 37 points.
Our complete writeup on this remarkable outcome -->
Breaking: Democrats resoundingly defend red district in Louisiana, denying GOP its first pickup
Republicans have yet to flip a single legislative seat since Trump's return
www.the-downballot.com
February 8, 2026 at 3:18 AM
"Since Trump returned to the White House, Democrats have picked up eight Republican-controlled districts through special elections, as well as 18 seats in New Jersey and Virginia during those states’ regularly scheduled contests last November. Republicans have flipped none."
Most of my experience watching Louisiana politics has been seeing Democrats lose ground on Trump turf. Not tonight!
The GOP just had its best chance to finally flip a legislative seat in Trump 2.0. Democrats had other ideas.
Chasity Martinez just won a rural Trump+13 in the Louisiana House in a 24-point landslide—an overperformance of 37 points.
Our complete writeup on this remarkable outcome -->
Chasity Martinez just won a rural Trump+13 in the Louisiana House in a 24-point landslide—an overperformance of 37 points.
Our complete writeup on this remarkable outcome -->
Breaking: Democrats resoundingly defend red district in Louisiana, denying GOP its first pickup
Republicans have yet to flip a single legislative seat since Trump's return
www.the-downballot.com
February 8, 2026 at 3:18 AM
Most of my experience watching Louisiana politics has been seeing Democrats lose ground on Trump turf. Not tonight!
When I talk about the margin bros, it's not just mildly pejorative.
New coinage from The Downballot Discord: "margin bro."
Definition: A polling analyst who only looks at the margin between the top two choices and ignores undecideds. Mildly pejorative.
Usage:
"The Dem is at -5 favorability!"
"He's at 20% fave, 25% unfave, 55% don't know. Don't be a margin bro."
Definition: A polling analyst who only looks at the margin between the top two choices and ignores undecideds. Mildly pejorative.
Usage:
"The Dem is at -5 favorability!"
"He's at 20% fave, 25% unfave, 55% don't know. Don't be a margin bro."
February 6, 2026 at 4:16 AM
When I talk about the margin bros, it's not just mildly pejorative.
Reposted by Jeff Singer
To anyone laid off from the Post today, we are hiring:
[email protected] is hiring a Senior National Reporter to cover issues of voting and democracy in 2026 and beyond. Reach out if you're interested in applying, we're a great place to work! workforcenow.adp.com/mascsr/defau...
Recruitment
workforcenow.adp.com
February 4, 2026 at 5:08 PM
To anyone laid off from the Post today, we are hiring:
I read a ton of election news every day and can say with certainty that Patrick Svitek is one of the best reporters out there. To quote Jay Landsman from The Wire: "I don't say that about many people. Even when they're here on the felt, I don't give that one up unless it happens to be true."
This is just awful news. Patrick is one of the best reporters out there, and we relied on his work constantly, including his reporting for the Texas Tribune before he went to WaPo. We would hire him if only we could. x.com/PatrickSvite...
February 4, 2026 at 4:44 PM
I read a ton of election news every day and can say with certainty that Patrick Svitek is one of the best reporters out there. To quote Jay Landsman from The Wire: "I don't say that about many people. Even when they're here on the felt, I don't give that one up unless it happens to be true."
Reposted by Jeff Singer
This is just awful news. Patrick is one of the best reporters out there, and we relied on his work constantly, including his reporting for the Texas Tribune before he went to WaPo. We would hire him if only we could. x.com/PatrickSvite...
February 4, 2026 at 4:39 PM
This is just awful news. Patrick is one of the best reporters out there, and we relied on his work constantly, including his reporting for the Texas Tribune before he went to WaPo. We would hire him if only we could. x.com/PatrickSvite...
Noah is a friend of a friend. Help get him home!
🚨 WE NEED YOUR HELP!!! 🚨 One of our volunteers, Noah, a veteran who has been doing work as a medic in MN, was arrested and is being held without bail. Please call his reps using the call script!
January 31, 2026 at 2:16 AM
Noah is a friend of a friend. Help get him home!
Reposted by Jeff Singer
What would happen if Trump tried to send troops to disrupt the midterms? Undaunted voters in the Twin Cities just gave us an answer: It could backfire very, very badly.
New from The Downballot: A wild overperformance in St. Paul shows Minnesotans will "crawl over broken glass" to vote—despite ICE.
New from The Downballot: A wild overperformance in St. Paul shows Minnesotans will "crawl over broken glass" to vote—despite ICE.
Minnesotans just showed they’ll ‘crawl over broken glass’ to vote, despite ICE terror
If Trump sends troops to disrupt voting, he could face a massive backlash
www.the-downballot.com
January 30, 2026 at 5:04 PM
What would happen if Trump tried to send troops to disrupt the midterms? Undaunted voters in the Twin Cities just gave us an answer: It could backfire very, very badly.
New from The Downballot: A wild overperformance in St. Paul shows Minnesotans will "crawl over broken glass" to vote—despite ICE.
New from The Downballot: A wild overperformance in St. Paul shows Minnesotans will "crawl over broken glass" to vote—despite ICE.
If James did seek reelection to the House after being bullied out of the governor's race, I hope Democrats ask, "How can John James stand up for Michigan when he can't even stand up for himself?"
Uh wow. From local Michigan station WLNS: www.wlns.com/your-local-e...
January 29, 2026 at 12:10 AM
If James did seek reelection to the House after being bullied out of the governor's race, I hope Democrats ask, "How can John James stand up for Michigan when he can't even stand up for himself?"
Reposted by Jeff Singer
Sending thoughts and prayers to everyone employed or represented or by Brad Finstad this morning.
January 27, 2026 at 12:14 PM
Sending thoughts and prayers to everyone employed or represented or by Brad Finstad this morning.
Former Rep. Mo Brooks four years ago was the Trump-backed frontrunner for a seat in the U.S. Senate. Today he's announcing a last-second bid for the state House after spending months deliberating whether to run for anything.
Mo Brooks changes course, announces political comeback with run for…
After deciding not to run for office, former U.S. Rep. Mo. Brooks has reversed course and announced plans to run for Alabama House District 20 against…
1819news.com
January 23, 2026 at 5:42 PM
Former Rep. Mo Brooks four years ago was the Trump-backed frontrunner for a seat in the U.S. Senate. Today he's announcing a last-second bid for the state House after spending months deliberating whether to run for anything.
Reposted by Jeff Singer
Major news from New York: A state judge just overturned part of the congressional map, potentially giving Democrats a chance to redraw it for 2026.
If this ruling is upheld, the Staten Island-based 11th District would flip from safely Republican to Democratic-leaning at the very least
If this ruling is upheld, the Staten Island-based 11th District would flip from safely Republican to Democratic-leaning at the very least
#BREAKING: Justice Pearlman has ruled that New York’s 11th Congressional District is unconstitutional under the New York constitution.
He orders the NY Redistricting Commission to reconvene and draw a new congressional map by Feb. 6, 2026.
He orders the NY Redistricting Commission to reconvene and draw a new congressional map by Feb. 6, 2026.
January 21, 2026 at 9:55 PM
Major news from New York: A state judge just overturned part of the congressional map, potentially giving Democrats a chance to redraw it for 2026.
If this ruling is upheld, the Staten Island-based 11th District would flip from safely Republican to Democratic-leaning at the very least
If this ruling is upheld, the Staten Island-based 11th District would flip from safely Republican to Democratic-leaning at the very least
Reposted by Jeff Singer
Have Gmail’s spam filters been hyper-aggressive lately for anyone else? Just today, two emails I sent to work colleagues *as replies* got sent to their spam.
January 21, 2026 at 3:05 AM
Have Gmail’s spam filters been hyper-aggressive lately for anyone else? Just today, two emails I sent to work colleagues *as replies* got sent to their spam.
Reposted by Jeff Singer
A top ICE official just stepped down to challenge Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur in an Ohio House seat that just got tougher for Kaptur to hold. The congresswoman, though, isn't letting the new map deter her from running again.
Morning Digest: Top ICE official launches campaign to flip House seat in Ohio
Madison Sheahan wants to defeat veteran Rep. Marcy Kaptur in a district that just got more conservative
www.the-downballot.com
January 16, 2026 at 3:28 PM
A top ICE official just stepped down to challenge Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur in an Ohio House seat that just got tougher for Kaptur to hold. The congresswoman, though, isn't letting the new map deter her from running again.
Ventura had cameo in 1997 "Batman & Robin" as guard who gets killed during escape of Mr. Freeze (Arnold Schwarzenegger). Ventura was elected governor of Minnesota the next year.
In 2002 the late website The Agony Booth joked that death of Ventura's character was it for governors in the movie ...
In 2002 the late website The Agony Booth joked that death of Ventura's character was it for governors in the movie ...
Jesse Ventura, the former wrestling star who was elected governor in 1998 as a third-party candidate, flirts with a comeback. "I did one term," Ventura tells Fox 9. “I am owed a second.”
Morning Digest: Jesse Ventura flirts with a comeback 28 years after shock win
The former professional wrestler could once again test if Minnesota is ready for his brand of politics
www.the-downballot.com
January 12, 2026 at 3:43 PM
Ventura had cameo in 1997 "Batman & Robin" as guard who gets killed during escape of Mr. Freeze (Arnold Schwarzenegger). Ventura was elected governor of Minnesota the next year.
In 2002 the late website The Agony Booth joked that death of Ventura's character was it for governors in the movie ...
In 2002 the late website The Agony Booth joked that death of Ventura's character was it for governors in the movie ...
Reposted by Jeff Singer
Maryland is considering redrawing its congressional map in response to other states' remaps & asked for proposals, so I submitted these 3 maps.
Interactive maps with data:
A: davesredistricting.org/join/1b9246f...
B: davesredistricting.org/join/aad85b9...
C: davesredistricting.org/join/0e76b33...
Interactive maps with data:
A: davesredistricting.org/join/1b9246f...
B: davesredistricting.org/join/aad85b9...
C: davesredistricting.org/join/0e76b33...
January 9, 2026 at 8:48 PM
Maryland is considering redrawing its congressional map in response to other states' remaps & asked for proposals, so I submitted these 3 maps.
Interactive maps with data:
A: davesredistricting.org/join/1b9246f...
B: davesredistricting.org/join/aad85b9...
C: davesredistricting.org/join/0e76b33...
Interactive maps with data:
A: davesredistricting.org/join/1b9246f...
B: davesredistricting.org/join/aad85b9...
C: davesredistricting.org/join/0e76b33...
Turns out Democrats weren't done making gains from 2025! Politico brings us this update from Orange County, NY www.politico.com/newsletters/...
January 7, 2026 at 4:58 PM
Turns out Democrats weren't done making gains from 2025! Politico brings us this update from Orange County, NY www.politico.com/newsletters/...
Reposted by Jeff Singer
Wait, how many towns have truck-eating bridges?!
January 2, 2026 at 8:05 PM
Wait, how many towns have truck-eating bridges?!
Reposted by Jeff Singer
Just once a year, in our final newsletter, we ask our readers to donate to support our work. And it's truly been a dramatic year, one that began in despair for supporters of democracy but has since seen nothing but victories at the ballot box. If our coverage has been helpful, we hope you'll donate.
Morning Digest: It was a huge year at the ballot box. Help us keep going.
As the stakes get even higher in 2026, we'll keep covering every important election, every day
www.the-downballot.com
December 19, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Just once a year, in our final newsletter, we ask our readers to donate to support our work. And it's truly been a dramatic year, one that began in despair for supporters of democracy but has since seen nothing but victories at the ballot box. If our coverage has been helpful, we hope you'll donate.
Reposted by Jeff Singer
Nice write up in @the-downballot.com today about yesterday's Kentucky SD-37 where Gary Clemons "ran 42 points ahead of the presidential results"
@davidnir.com and @jeffsinger.bsky.social used "massive" to describe Gary's overperformance!
www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...
@davidnir.com and @jeffsinger.bsky.social used "massive" to describe Gary's overperformance!
www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...
Morning Digest, sponsored by Grassroots Analytics: GOP-backed referendum puts Oregon's new transportation funding plan at risk
With new revenues now paused, Democrats are warning of major cutbacks
www.the-downballot.com
December 17, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Nice write up in @the-downballot.com today about yesterday's Kentucky SD-37 where Gary Clemons "ran 42 points ahead of the presidential results"
@davidnir.com and @jeffsinger.bsky.social used "massive" to describe Gary's overperformance!
www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...
@davidnir.com and @jeffsinger.bsky.social used "massive" to describe Gary's overperformance!
www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...
Reposted by Jeff Singer
We only just learned of the loss of a singular figure in the world of elections, Joshua Spivak of the @recallelections.bsky.social blog. Absolutely no one in America knew more about recall elections, but more than that, Spivak was a true mensch and a lovely human being. May his memory be a blessing.
In memoriam: Joshua Spivak
scocablog.com
December 15, 2025 at 4:34 PM
We only just learned of the loss of a singular figure in the world of elections, Joshua Spivak of the @recallelections.bsky.social blog. Absolutely no one in America knew more about recall elections, but more than that, Spivak was a true mensch and a lovely human being. May his memory be a blessing.
Georgia Democrats won a big victory in a red legislative seat. Readers of The Downballot weren't caught off guard tonight!
December 10, 2025 at 3:46 AM
Georgia Democrats won a big victory in a red legislative seat. Readers of The Downballot weren't caught off guard tonight!
Reposted by Jeff Singer
BREAKING: Democrats have flipped a conservative state House seat in Georgia in yet another upset.
It's a 14-point overperformance *and* the 25th legislative flip of the year for Dems. Republicans? Zero.
Read our complete writeup here -->
It's a 14-point overperformance *and* the 25th legislative flip of the year for Dems. Republicans? Zero.
Read our complete writeup here -->
Breaking: Georgia Democrats flip conservative seat in yet another upset
That's 25 pickups for Democrats nationwide this year—and zero for Republicans
www.the-downballot.com
December 10, 2025 at 2:11 AM
BREAKING: Democrats have flipped a conservative state House seat in Georgia in yet another upset.
It's a 14-point overperformance *and* the 25th legislative flip of the year for Dems. Republicans? Zero.
Read our complete writeup here -->
It's a 14-point overperformance *and* the 25th legislative flip of the year for Dems. Republicans? Zero.
Read our complete writeup here -->