Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦
@jstalnaker1.bsky.social
Burkean small-l liberal. Finance guy. Tampa sports.
Reposted by Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦
I think the best parallel is the Iran-Iraq War. It’s a brutal slog between under equipped and exhausted conventional military forces that probably has no real bearing on how other contemporary conventional conflicts be will be fought.
Looking back through history, what war is most relevant for thinking about how the Ukraine war is going or a hypothetical Taiwan war? I’ve heard of people referring to the Ukraine War as “World War 1 with Blade Runner aesthetics” is that a fair characterization?
December 6, 2025 at 1:47 AM
I think the best parallel is the Iran-Iraq War. It’s a brutal slog between under equipped and exhausted conventional military forces that probably has no real bearing on how other contemporary conventional conflicts be will be fought.
If MO Dems can get enough signatures to postpone redistricting to 2028 and the IN GOP holds off
VA and CA can basically offset TX and FL. CO,OR,NY,WA need to be ready to go for 28 though because the VRA is probably going away.
VA and CA can basically offset TX and FL. CO,OR,NY,WA need to be ready to go for 28 though because the VRA is probably going away.
December 5, 2025 at 1:15 AM
If MO Dems can get enough signatures to postpone redistricting to 2028 and the IN GOP holds off
VA and CA can basically offset TX and FL. CO,OR,NY,WA need to be ready to go for 28 though because the VRA is probably going away.
VA and CA can basically offset TX and FL. CO,OR,NY,WA need to be ready to go for 28 though because the VRA is probably going away.
What the young family in 2025 America is really clamoring for…
December 4, 2025 at 2:04 PM
What the young family in 2025 America is really clamoring for…
Feels like the administration is barely hanging on at this point. The GOP majority in the House might not make it to next November, and they are about to have the worst relationship with the Pentagon of any administration in modern history.
December 4, 2025 at 3:06 AM
Feels like the administration is barely hanging on at this point. The GOP majority in the House might not make it to next November, and they are about to have the worst relationship with the Pentagon of any administration in modern history.
Reposted by Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦
Incredible:
"Nancy Mace of South Carolina has told people she is so frustrated... that she is planning to huddle with Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia next week to discuss following her lead and retiring early from Congress."
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/03/u...
"Nancy Mace of South Carolina has told people she is so frustrated... that she is planning to huddle with Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia next week to discuss following her lead and retiring early from Congress."
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/03/u...
December 3, 2025 at 10:43 PM
Incredible:
"Nancy Mace of South Carolina has told people she is so frustrated... that she is planning to huddle with Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia next week to discuss following her lead and retiring early from Congress."
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/03/u...
"Nancy Mace of South Carolina has told people she is so frustrated... that she is planning to huddle with Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia next week to discuss following her lead and retiring early from Congress."
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/03/u...
Reposted by Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦
Rand Paul: "Secretary Hegseth said he had no knowledge of this and it did not happen. It was fake news. It didn't happen. And then the next day, from the podium of the WH, they're saying it did happen. So either he was lying to us on Sunday or he's incompetent and didn't know what had happened."
December 3, 2025 at 1:16 PM
Rand Paul: "Secretary Hegseth said he had no knowledge of this and it did not happen. It was fake news. It didn't happen. And then the next day, from the podium of the WH, they're saying it did happen. So either he was lying to us on Sunday or he's incompetent and didn't know what had happened."
Reposted by Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦
For additional context here, these are the relative turnout levels of each of the congressional special elections we've had this year
This race got super nationalized - relative turnout ended up being huge
But to me, that makes this the most encouraging special for Ds so far
This race got super nationalized - relative turnout ended up being huge
But to me, that makes this the most encouraging special for Ds so far
December 3, 2025 at 3:36 AM
For additional context here, these are the relative turnout levels of each of the congressional special elections we've had this year
This race got super nationalized - relative turnout ended up being huge
But to me, that makes this the most encouraging special for Ds so far
This race got super nationalized - relative turnout ended up being huge
But to me, that makes this the most encouraging special for Ds so far
Mary Peltola should really run for Senate.
December 3, 2025 at 3:20 AM
Mary Peltola should really run for Senate.
If the environment looks like this in 11 months, Republicans will not hold the Senate.
I think Republicans will probably hold the senate and Trump will be free to continue MAGAfying the judiciary — don’t seem that fucked to me
December 3, 2025 at 3:06 AM
If the environment looks like this in 11 months, Republicans will not hold the Senate.
Reposted by Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦
yeah if these are the kinds of political swings we're getting in Trump country the Republicans are beyond screwed for the midterms
December 3, 2025 at 2:12 AM
yeah if these are the kinds of political swings we're getting in Trump country the Republicans are beyond screwed for the midterms
Reposted by Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦
Probably somewhere in the mid-single digits for Rs depending on how high Davidson's eday turnout was?
December 3, 2025 at 2:06 AM
Probably somewhere in the mid-single digits for Rs depending on how high Davidson's eday turnout was?
Montgomery e-day votes only a few points redder than EV might keep the door open if Davidson has the same dynamic.
December 3, 2025 at 2:01 AM
Montgomery e-day votes only a few points redder than EV might keep the door open if Davidson has the same dynamic.
Crucial Davkesha County.
Election day is much redder than the EV in the rurals, Decatur fully reported is only a 6% swing, at 48% of 2024's turnout
Davidson will need turnout to be a much higher % of 2024 for Behn to still have a shot
Davidson will need turnout to be a much higher % of 2024 for Behn to still have a shot
December 3, 2025 at 1:52 AM
Crucial Davkesha County.
Wow
We're in "election day turnout dynamics will decide this" territory
Behn leads Davidson EV by 70(!)
December 3, 2025 at 1:37 AM
Wow
Behn +70 in Davidson EV 👀
December 3, 2025 at 1:35 AM
Behn +70 in Davidson EV 👀
Reposted by Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦
Behn is leading the Montgomery early vote, that makes this more interesting for sure
December 3, 2025 at 1:13 AM
Behn is leading the Montgomery early vote, that makes this more interesting for sure
👀
First NYT estimate is R+3 lol
December 3, 2025 at 1:13 AM
👀
Reposted by Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦
as we wait for Tennessee (and Hudson County), I think we have an early result out of Georgia, as Democrat Mary Robichaux has enough of a lead out of early voting (58-42) that I think she unseats Republican Roswell Mayor Kurt Wilson
December 3, 2025 at 12:20 AM
as we wait for Tennessee (and Hudson County), I think we have an early result out of Georgia, as Democrat Mary Robichaux has enough of a lead out of early voting (58-42) that I think she unseats Republican Roswell Mayor Kurt Wilson
Hoo’ boy.
December 2, 2025 at 7:29 PM
Hoo’ boy.
Holy shit
Trump on Tim Walz: "I think the man is a grossly incompetent man. I thought that from the day I watched JD destroy him in the debate. I was saying, 'Who's more incompetent, that man or my man?' I had a man and he had a man. They were both incompetent."
December 2, 2025 at 7:09 PM
Holy shit
A GOP win is still more likely than not tonight in TN-7 but the thing that makes me think an upset is more likely than the conventional wisdom is the national environment has probably worsened for the GOP in the last few weeks since the November elections.
December 2, 2025 at 5:52 PM
A GOP win is still more likely than not tonight in TN-7 but the thing that makes me think an upset is more likely than the conventional wisdom is the national environment has probably worsened for the GOP in the last few weeks since the November elections.
The actions of both sides to me signal that private polling has it pretty close like that Emerson poll. Tomorrow is going to be interesting.
They’re so freaked they got him back on Twitter after 9PM.
December 2, 2025 at 3:37 AM
The actions of both sides to me signal that private polling has it pretty close like that Emerson poll. Tomorrow is going to be interesting.
Reposted by Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦
If Costco helps to end the tariffs I will upgrade immediately to the Executive Membership.
Costco sues US to preserve tariff refunds if Trump loses appeal reut.rs/48J2koC
Costco sues US to preserve tariff refunds if Trump loses appeal
Costco has sued the U.S. government to ensure it will receive refunds if the Supreme Court rejects President Donald Trump's bid for sweeping authority to impose tariffs.
reut.rs
December 2, 2025 at 1:31 AM
If Costco helps to end the tariffs I will upgrade immediately to the Executive Membership.
Hmm
December 1, 2025 at 2:08 AM
Hmm
It’s like they call a cabinet meeting every day to think of new ways to alienate more constituencies.
The Trump admin now says nursing isn't a professional degree.
The admin plan to redefine what constitutes a professional degree to exclude nursing and limit access to student loans — outraging national health care groups and leaving nursing students questioning how they'll pay for graduate degrees.
The admin plan to redefine what constitutes a professional degree to exclude nursing and limit access to student loans — outraging national health care groups and leaving nursing students questioning how they'll pay for graduate degrees.
November 30, 2025 at 7:12 PM
It’s like they call a cabinet meeting every day to think of new ways to alienate more constituencies.