William Martindale
@wijama.bsky.social
Taiwanese-American MCEPA student at UC San Diego. Known as 馬凱威 to the other half of my family. I research conspiracy theories in the Chinese-speaking world. Follow me for bad jokes, stats nerd stuff, and updates on whatever I'm reading.
Pinned
Partisanship, Security, and Global Status: Anatomy of Taiwan’s March 19 Shooting Conspiracy Theories
Previous research has shown how belief in particular conspiracy theories is subject to their salience to believers. Using the example of Taiwan’s March 19 shooting conspiracy theories, I show in this ...
scholarsarchive.byu.edu
Pleased to share that my undergraduate thesis, "Partisanship, Security, and Global Status: Anatomy of Taiwan’s March 19 Shooting Conspiracy Theories" is now available to read on BYU ScholarsArchive. In it, I examine an understudied conspiracy theory and implications on the field. Here's a summary 🧵
Reposted by William Martindale
No idea why an Afghan refugee shot National Guard soldiers within walking distance of the White House, but this new USCIS directive was revealed on Monday. Worth noting.
The folks at @afghanevac.bsky.social have in hand a new USCIS directive which largely targets Afghan refugees who fled the Taliban in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal in 2021.
In case you needed a reminder that the most loathsome people in the world work for DHS.
In case you needed a reminder that the most loathsome people in the world work for DHS.
November 27, 2025 at 5:19 AM
No idea why an Afghan refugee shot National Guard soldiers within walking distance of the White House, but this new USCIS directive was revealed on Monday. Worth noting.
Reposted by William Martindale
Perfect algorithmic timeline
November 27, 2025 at 7:09 AM
Perfect algorithmic timeline
learning about coordinate systems in China and seriously what the frick
![Screenshot of Wikipedia article on Chinese coordinate system GCJ-02. It reads:
GCJ-02 (Chinese: 地形图非线性保密处理算法; pinyin: Dìxíng tú fēixiànxìng bǎomì chǔlǐ suànfǎ; lit. 'Topographic map non-linear confidentiality algorithm')[21] is a geodetic datum used by the Chinese State Bureau of Surveying and Mapping, and based on WGS-84.[22] It uses an obfuscation algorithm[23] which adds apparently random offsets to both the latitude and longitude, with the alleged goal of improving national security.[20][24] There is a license fee associated with using this mandatory algorithm in China.[21]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qy6jyj4tpbqb33a44wx4gsl5/bafkreibvo5larkw5el52dsv2vk4m7addomryhdoejlbb4s5tte55fj52cy@jpeg)
November 26, 2025 at 6:57 AM
learning about coordinate systems in China and seriously what the frick
Reposted by William Martindale
A new Chinese law regulating influencer speech has gotten applause from social media users and commentators who want similar policies in their own countries. But the truth is far from what's in the news and it's a sad reflection of our internet and media space.
wenhao.substack.com/p/anatomy-of...
wenhao.substack.com/p/anatomy-of...
Anatomy of a Fake Story
A new Chinese law aimed at reducing misinformation set off global discussion. But nobody got it right.
wenhao.substack.com
November 25, 2025 at 4:39 PM
A new Chinese law regulating influencer speech has gotten applause from social media users and commentators who want similar policies in their own countries. But the truth is far from what's in the news and it's a sad reflection of our internet and media space.
wenhao.substack.com/p/anatomy-of...
wenhao.substack.com/p/anatomy-of...
Reposted by William Martindale
i still find it funny that the main self-coup plotters with Yoon were his high school alumni
October 16, 2025 at 1:23 AM
i still find it funny that the main self-coup plotters with Yoon were his high school alumni
Reposted by William Martindale
Cannot overstate how, from my perch as a national-security reporter, this would have been an earth-shattering scandal in a prior era.
Billionaire Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, pardoned by Donald Trump, has been accused of facilitating millions of dollars’ worth of payments to Hamas in the wake of its attack on Israel on October 7 2023. Zhao also financed the Trump family's entrance into the cryptocurrency market.
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao accused of facilitating payments to Hamas
Crypto tycoon pardoned by Donald Trump faces US court complaint from families of victims of October 7 attack
www.ft.com
November 25, 2025 at 4:33 AM
Cannot overstate how, from my perch as a national-security reporter, this would have been an earth-shattering scandal in a prior era.
Reposted by William Martindale
I don’t think anything sums up reality like this
Gonna be seeing this exact segment in my dreams for the next 20 years
November 25, 2025 at 3:56 AM
I don’t think anything sums up reality like this
Reposted by William Martindale
Absolutely deranged. I hope countries clamoring to end asylum or refugee policies for people from Myanmar—including Taiwan—don’t use this as justification for that now
www.uscis.gov/newsroom/new...
www.uscis.gov/newsroom/new...
DHS Terminating Temporary Protected Status for Burma
Today, Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem announced the termination of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Burma (Myanmar).
www.uscis.gov
November 25, 2025 at 1:10 AM
Absolutely deranged. I hope countries clamoring to end asylum or refugee policies for people from Myanmar—including Taiwan—don’t use this as justification for that now
www.uscis.gov/newsroom/new...
www.uscis.gov/newsroom/new...
Reposted by William Martindale
They want dissidents and refugees executed by dictatorships to make an example of them, they want a chilling effect on asylum seekers coming here that will last long after Trump is gone for the purpose of driving down non-white immigration.
The way I feel about these people would be unwise to post.
The way I feel about these people would be unwise to post.
This is really concerning. The Junta in Myanmar will arrest, conscript or kill many of those the US may return.
We honestly cannot understand how the US admin can say the situation in Myanmar is improving when ALL EVIDENCE IS TO THE CONTRARY.
We honestly cannot understand how the US admin can say the situation in Myanmar is improving when ALL EVIDENCE IS TO THE CONTRARY.
🚨"The Trump administration announced it will cancel temporary asylum for around 10,000 #Myanmar nationals living in the US, despite the country being ruled by a military dictatorship that has a record of executing dissidents."
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
November 24, 2025 at 10:01 PM
They want dissidents and refugees executed by dictatorships to make an example of them, they want a chilling effect on asylum seekers coming here that will last long after Trump is gone for the purpose of driving down non-white immigration.
The way I feel about these people would be unwise to post.
The way I feel about these people would be unwise to post.
Reposted by William Martindale
It’s dangerous to go alone! Take this. Photo from my collection, 1949.
November 23, 2025 at 11:35 PM
It’s dangerous to go alone! Take this. Photo from my collection, 1949.
Reposted by William Martindale
Looking forward to the next iteration of this work, “F- it, we’re doing four robustnesses.”
New paper: Triply Robust Panel Estimators (TROP) by @susanathey.bsky.social @guidoimbens.bsky.social Zhaonan Qu @vivianodavide.bsky.social.
arxiv.org/pdf/2508.21536
arxiv.org/pdf/2508.21536
November 23, 2025 at 11:32 PM
Looking forward to the next iteration of this work, “F- it, we’re doing four robustnesses.”
Reposted by William Martindale
China is cracking down on "naked officials".
It's not what you might imagine. They are officials who have children studying and living outside of China, particularly in the United States.
The topic does give rise to some great headlines, though:
It's not what you might imagine. They are officials who have children studying and living outside of China, particularly in the United States.
The topic does give rise to some great headlines, though:
November 22, 2025 at 6:20 PM
China is cracking down on "naked officials".
It's not what you might imagine. They are officials who have children studying and living outside of China, particularly in the United States.
The topic does give rise to some great headlines, though:
It's not what you might imagine. They are officials who have children studying and living outside of China, particularly in the United States.
The topic does give rise to some great headlines, though:
Reposted by William Martindale
One thing about PCA/embeddings/political-leaning that should get more attention is the role of zero or “the origin”. It’s often special in a way that depends upon how you do the embedding.
This post is a good example of that.
Once you accept that the origin is special, then….
This post is a good example of that.
Once you accept that the origin is special, then….
Good morning. I've got a banger new post out today that develops a new method for placing voters on the left-right ideological spectrum, and adds a new, "non-ideological"/affordability axis to usual way we chart & think about US voters (esp swing voters). www.gelliottmorris.com/p/not-just-l...
Not just left vs right: Most voters think about affordability and material wellbeing, not in ideological terms
Most voters want a party that emphasizes cost of living issues and makes the world a better place. Few Americans think in solidly ideologically terms. "Moderates" are mostly non-ideological.
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 20, 2025 at 6:28 PM
One thing about PCA/embeddings/political-leaning that should get more attention is the role of zero or “the origin”. It’s often special in a way that depends upon how you do the embedding.
This post is a good example of that.
Once you accept that the origin is special, then….
This post is a good example of that.
Once you accept that the origin is special, then….
Reposted by William Martindale
I think it is very unlikely that most of these are Russian influence agents, and considerably more likely that they are people from developing economies who have cottoned on to ways to make relatively large amounts of money for them by being paid-per-view by X.
This week we learned that many of the most active Twitter accounts are foreigners, most likely Russian influence agents, operating in the guise of Red State Americans.
November 23, 2025 at 1:40 AM
I think it is very unlikely that most of these are Russian influence agents, and considerably more likely that they are people from developing economies who have cottoned on to ways to make relatively large amounts of money for them by being paid-per-view by X.
Reposted by William Martindale
STOP ENJOYING BEAUTIFUL WEATHER. YOU ARE PLAYING INTO ITS HANDS
November 15, 2025 at 9:18 PM
STOP ENJOYING BEAUTIFUL WEATHER. YOU ARE PLAYING INTO ITS HANDS
raining today, so looking forward to a nice afternoon of leaning on my windowsill, pondering
November 15, 2025 at 6:15 PM
raining today, so looking forward to a nice afternoon of leaning on my windowsill, pondering
Reposted by William Martindale
The shutdown is over. The data drought is not.
What we know (and mostly don't) about when the data flow will resume, what we'll never get, and what the lasting damage could be:
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/14/b... #EconSky
What we know (and mostly don't) about when the data flow will resume, what we'll never get, and what the lasting damage could be:
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/14/b... #EconSky
A Reopened Government Hasn’t Ended Delays for Economic Data
www.nytimes.com
November 14, 2025 at 6:15 PM
The shutdown is over. The data drought is not.
What we know (and mostly don't) about when the data flow will resume, what we'll never get, and what the lasting damage could be:
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/14/b... #EconSky
What we know (and mostly don't) about when the data flow will resume, what we'll never get, and what the lasting damage could be:
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/14/b... #EconSky
we talked about the effects of social media in one of my classes today and multiple classmates said they saw videos of people dying in the middle of normal pet or news or cooking content and in my head all I could think was "what the hell kind of social media apps are you using???"
November 14, 2025 at 2:39 AM
we talked about the effects of social media in one of my classes today and multiple classmates said they saw videos of people dying in the middle of normal pet or news or cooking content and in my head all I could think was "what the hell kind of social media apps are you using???"
Reposted by William Martindale
And from Sunshine Hillygus at Duke:
I love that this includes a *self-reported* measure of whether respondent was just trying to be funny with some responses.
(I don't even know what "Trump Bee Movie" means here but I will certainly google)
I love that this includes a *self-reported* measure of whether respondent was just trying to be funny with some responses.
(I don't even know what "Trump Bee Movie" means here but I will certainly google)
November 13, 2025 at 5:48 PM
And from Sunshine Hillygus at Duke:
I love that this includes a *self-reported* measure of whether respondent was just trying to be funny with some responses.
(I don't even know what "Trump Bee Movie" means here but I will certainly google)
I love that this includes a *self-reported* measure of whether respondent was just trying to be funny with some responses.
(I don't even know what "Trump Bee Movie" means here but I will certainly google)
Reposted by William Martindale
From Matt Tyler at Rice on measuring support for beliefs in conspiracies: One idea is to look at whether respondents report consistent beliefs over multiple questions in the same survey, with different wording.
(Also: bonus Olympics content!)
(Also: bonus Olympics content!)
November 13, 2025 at 5:39 PM
From Matt Tyler at Rice on measuring support for beliefs in conspiracies: One idea is to look at whether respondents report consistent beliefs over multiple questions in the same survey, with different wording.
(Also: bonus Olympics content!)
(Also: bonus Olympics content!)
Reposted by William Martindale
New edited volume just dropped! Quantitative History of China: State Capacity, Institutions, and Development edited by Chen Zhiwu, myself, and Ma Debin is now able as a free PDF/ePub download. 1/2
link.springer.com/book/10.1007...
link.springer.com/book/10.1007...
Quantitative History of China
This Open Access book showcases a collection of new findings concerning China's political, social, and economic history based on large historical datasets.
link.springer.com
November 11, 2025 at 7:35 AM
New edited volume just dropped! Quantitative History of China: State Capacity, Institutions, and Development edited by Chen Zhiwu, myself, and Ma Debin is now able as a free PDF/ePub download. 1/2
link.springer.com/book/10.1007...
link.springer.com/book/10.1007...
Reposted by William Martindale
every sunday, from pulpits in megachurches across america, white evangelicals cry out about some imaginary persecution of christianity. but i can’t stop thinking about the pile of rosaries collected by a janitor at a border crossing or the priest turned away at the gates of the detention camp.
“Federal authorities told demonstrators Friday that there would be ‘no more prayer’ in front of or inside the Broadview ICE facility, in a move that mystified local leaders and raised legal questions.” blockclubchicago.org/2025/11/07/f...
Feds Tell Faith Leaders 'No More Prayer' Outside Broadview Facility
In a possible violation of the First Amendment, federal officials instructed demonstrators to stop holding religious gatherings outside the immigration processing facility in suburban Broadview after ...
blockclubchicago.org
November 8, 2025 at 6:39 PM
every sunday, from pulpits in megachurches across america, white evangelicals cry out about some imaginary persecution of christianity. but i can’t stop thinking about the pile of rosaries collected by a janitor at a border crossing or the priest turned away at the gates of the detention camp.
unrelated but when I was last in Taipei I was chatting with someone on the street and I mentioned that my grandparents were from Yunlin. she was like "wow! they must be very rich then, because everyone in Yunlin owns land" and I was like "what the frick??? have you been there?????"
A map of population decline in Taiwan from 1980 to 2020 from an article by Di Hu in the International Journal of Geo-Information. Local populations sometimes peaked in the 1960s, particularly in eastern Taiwan, so that decline is already baked-in by 1980. Not surprised to see Yunlin here!
November 9, 2025 at 3:54 AM
unrelated but when I was last in Taipei I was chatting with someone on the street and I mentioned that my grandparents were from Yunlin. she was like "wow! they must be very rich then, because everyone in Yunlin owns land" and I was like "what the frick??? have you been there?????"
Reposted by William Martindale
A map of population decline in Taiwan from 1980 to 2020 from an article by Di Hu in the International Journal of Geo-Information. Local populations sometimes peaked in the 1960s, particularly in eastern Taiwan, so that decline is already baked-in by 1980. Not surprised to see Yunlin here!
November 8, 2025 at 8:34 PM
A map of population decline in Taiwan from 1980 to 2020 from an article by Di Hu in the International Journal of Geo-Information. Local populations sometimes peaked in the 1960s, particularly in eastern Taiwan, so that decline is already baked-in by 1980. Not surprised to see Yunlin here!