"But it is possible to negotiate with Russia. Just do it in two stages: Make a show of force first, and only then have dialogue."

www.nytimes.com/2025/10/09/o...

I posted a joke about my then 2y old running around the house screaming 'order' because I watched so much House of Commons debates during Brexit.

Have it on authority that this was shown to Speaker John Bercow by an MP and isn't it great that we can have these kinds of silly connections sometimes?

Good chat with the FT’s Martin Wolf, on China’s global economic strength, while Trump damages US.

My only caveat is that China remains more a regional than global security power - so far - largely due to immediate neighborhood insecurities (I.e. border disputes).

podcasts.apple.com/ie/podcast/t...

Exactly, Putin is an opportunist, in other words.

And the West could reduce his opportunities…

I agree. I've seen Putin described as risk-averse; I don't think that's right. He takes risks that other leaders wouldn't, but only when he assesses that the likelihood of an effective response is low. The West has yet to change his assessment that he can keep pushing us back.

Bottom-line : this is basically doable and consequently the Russian taxpayer may soon be paying the costs of Western military support to Ukraine

"Voluntary military service or a return to conscription? The dispute over this issue seemed to have been settled within the German government. Now, criticism is flaring up, fueled by Chancellor Friedrich Merz."
DW
www.dw.com/en/german-ch...

👀
www.euractiv.com/news/eu-must...

Goodness

Just sent out this post. Three and a half years after Bucha, after mass child abductions started, after nightly attacks on civilians, the political strength of parties sympathetic to Russia (which is doing these things) is growing not declining. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Moreover, while I don’t think this will happen, it would be the ultimate example of the Irish political sense of humour if “Jim Gavin” now won the thing, “just for the craic”:

Europe still has a role to play in preventing a new Israel–Iran war. Pragmatic diplomacy, coordination with Gulf partners, and restraint on all sides are key to keeping the region from sliding back into conflict. ➡️ ow.ly/46m950X7BfS

Dominic Grieve sets out the huge cost of leaving the ECHR - for Northern Ireland, for trade with the EU and for the UK's reputation.
www.europeanmovement.co.uk/leaving_echr...

Is the community method on its way out - multi-speed integration coming?

I remain a bit sceptical: a Europe of multiple speeds has been touted for a long time, but in practice the pressures to move with all EU-27 tend to be really high.

The EU enhanced cooperation clause has rarely been used...

The escalating grey-zone conflict between the West and Russia is being contested on the sea as well as in the air. A rise in worrying maritime incidents is forcing NATO to step up econ.st/3ILHiM8

Photo: Reuters

With deep sadness I post this. My Mother, Catherine Keohane (née Donohoe), passed away a week ago. Some on here met her but wouldn’t have known.

The simplest way I can describe my Mum is that she was my best friend, and the best person I’ve ever known.

Below is my favourite picture of both of us:

Super long-read on the real US economy where "eds and meds" is far important than steel on every measure. As it will be in the UK and across Europe. But politicians always prioritise the steel, and Trump is explicitly trying to damage the success stories... www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

My favourite ridiculous example of this is the Manchester United credit card in Malaysia and Singapore (yes really) which used to give extra rewards only when they won now also gives rewards when they draw as people were churning due to lack of victories milelion.com/2025/07/17/h...

At one point in future, everything will be laundered through either defence or health budget

New cases of drone sightings across Europe and NATO territory:

‼️Hybrid warfare isn’t only about “unknown” drones,but also about anonymous calls&warnings,which are now taken extremely seriously.
◾️ Belgium:
October 3:Around 15 drones were spotted over the Elsenborn military training area,a NATO base

Austrian military: "It was very important for us to show we are doing this primarily to strengthen digital sovereignty, maintain independence in terms of ICT infrastructure, and ensure data is only processed in-house."

And they didn't just switch to Libre Office, they invest in its development, too

‘If you’d told the founders of European integration that the..dilemma we’d face…would be creating the conditions to allow European states to deploy military force, they’d have cracked open the champagne’ Me on the EU’s failings as a security institution www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

The scope of the 1.5% pledge for security-related spending is so woolly it verges on gimmickry. The reality is that most countries will easily meet that part of the target, because it covers things they were already doing

So Trump tells Europeans to increase their defence budgets & buy more US kit, & the Pentagon tells them they can’t have it. Maybe it’s time for Europe to stop thinking it can rely on the US, & start investing in a rapid build-up of domestic arms production, even if it’s slightly lower quality.