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Lars Lowinski @larswx.bsky.social · 3d

And both systems near the upper/lower end of what is "climatologically possible" at the time of year in terms of wind speeds and MSLP.

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Lars Lowinski @larswx.bsky.social · 5d

Another interesting (if somewhat older) paper I found on historical gales: rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
Tiree features a few times there as well, among some other noteworthy events.

NOTABLE BRITISH GALES OF THE PAST FIFTY YEARS

Click on the article title to read more.

rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com

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Lars Lowinski @larswx.bsky.social · 6d

Same here! There seems to have been a long-lasting power cut after 18Z yesterday, so the "true" max gust speed may have been even higher.
Also, didn't Tiree have gusts significantly above 100mph during the January 1968 storm?

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Lars Lowinski @larswx.bsky.social · 7d

Widespread power cuts affecting western and central Scotland just now as a result of damaging winds from #StormAmy (source: ssen.co.uk)

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Lars Lowinski @larswx.bsky.social · 8d

😄

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Reposted by Lars Lowinski

Mika Rantanen @mikarantane.bsky.social · 8d

The rapid deepening of Storm Amy has begun.

Over the next hours, the storm will travel across the jet stream and move to the left exit region of the jet stream where the most explosive deepening will take place.

Satellite image of Storm Amy, overlaid with MSLP contours at 6 UTC. Screenshot from Eumetrain.

MSLP and jet stream at 18 UTC in Europe. The figure is from https://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/abentley/realtime/standard.php?domain=europe&variable=mslp_jet.

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Lars Lowinski @larswx.bsky.social · 8d

Nein, das Tief heißt noch immer Amy, es wurde vorgestern vom UK Met Office so benannt.
“Detlef” ist lediglich der deutsche Name, vergeben von der FU Berlin.

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Reposted by Lars Lowinski

Marco Petagna @petagna.bsky.social · 8d

#StormAmy means business

Rapid cyclogenesis

978 to 946hpa, a drop of 32hpa in central pressure in just 18hrs..and perhaps dipping to less than 946hpa for a time during the period

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Lars Lowinski @larswx.bsky.social · 9d

Presumably because in this case the system doesn't really contain the remnants of HUMBERTO, it was a separate development further downstream (i.e. a "warm front-breakaway" type of evolution).

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Lars Lowinski @larswx.bsky.social · 10d

CAVOK

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Lars Lowinski @larswx.bsky.social · 10d

Looks more like a "warm front-breakaway" type of development, but also fuelled by high-WBPT tropical air in the vicinity of "HUMBERTO"

Lars Lowinski @larswx.bsky.social · 10d

#StormAmy probably being named very soon as models are in better agreement this morning. It could be a record-breaker in terms of low pressure for the time of year as well.
W + N Scotland in particular is likely to see some intense winds with this one.

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Reposted by Lars Lowinski

Marco Petagna @petagna.bsky.social · 11d

The possible outcomes for the weather later this week..

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Lars Lowinski @larswx.bsky.social · 11d

That is a key issue. If the time slots were a little longer, providing context and background information like this would add plenty of value to weather forecasts before/during potentially impactful weather events.

This can be done online anyway, as we are moving away from traditional TV viewing.

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Reposted by Lars Lowinski

Mika Rantanen @mikarantane.bsky.social · 11d

Quite worrying solutions recently in the global weather models regarding Humberto's post-tropical intensification. The system is forecast to deepen explosively while arriving Europe.

The northern British Isles might be hit hard. 👀

Peak wind gust in the ECMWF model in NW Europe.

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Lars Lowinski @larswx.bsky.social · 16d

While the Azores have seen some tropical storms and a few hurricanes in the past, #Gabrielle will be at the upper end of the climatological range in terms of intensity. People on the central islands in particular should take this storm seriously and prepare for it

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Lars Lowinski @larswx.bsky.social · 17d

Herbstlaub auf DB-Schienen? 🍂

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Reposted by Lars Lowinski

Michael Lowry @michaelrlowry.bsky.social · 18d

Remarkable to see what hurricanes can do when they traverse exceptionally warm water. Gabrielle rapidly strengthening to a Category 4 hurricane today right as it passed over record warm sea surface temperatures for the time of year.

Record water temperature anomalies from September 15-21, 2025, and Gabrielle preliminary best track through 5 PM ET Monday, September 22, 2025. Gabrielle rapidly strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane Monday as it passed over a patch of record warm sea surface temperatures for the time of year, shown in deep red near and east of Bermuda.

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Lars Lowinski @larswx.bsky.social · 19d

Very heavy rain across SE France last night in association with an area of strong thunderstorms.
This is the season for intense convective events (often augmented by topographic features) around the Mediterranean Sea

Météo-France Sud-Est @meteofrance-se.bsky.social · 19d

Comme prévu, l'épisode méditerranéen a été très intense avec fréquemment plus de 80mm et même localement plus de 100mm.

Ce n'est pas la durabilité mais l'intensité des cumuls en peu de temps qui a été remarquable comme à Toulon avec près de 90mm en 1h soit une valeur inédite.

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Lars Lowinski @larswx.bsky.social · 21d

Der Juli 2006 war zwar auch sehr heiß, aber du meintest sicher den 9.9. 😉

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Lars Lowinski @larswx.bsky.social · Sep 10

I know that car (and drone) 😬 Please say hello to Alois for me.

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Reposted by Lars Lowinski

Adrian Leyser Sturm @leysersturm.bsky.social · Sep 9

UPDATE: Official 12-hourly precipitation data, 09/09/25, 6 UTC. Highest amounts:

Bedburg (Germany) 134 mm
Luxembourg Airport 122 mm
Mönchengladbach (Germany) 122 mm

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Lars Lowinski @larswx.bsky.social · Sep 8

Exactly. That's what makes forecasting areas most at risk tricky with this setup. But upper bounds of high-res ENS show what is possible. 100-150mm not out of the question in a worst-case scenario.

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Lars Lowinski @larswx.bsky.social · Sep 8

This one will happen very close to home...heavy (locally thundery) rain in far W Germany and surrounding areas. A few locations could see up to 100 mm in under 24 hours, enough to cause some flooding issues despite rather dry antecedent conditions. #weather

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Lars Lowinski @larswx.bsky.social · Sep 7

#lunareclipse2025 as seen in the Siebengebirge hills near Bonn earlier today.

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