Luis Apiolaza
@ojala.bsky.social
Quantitative Forester @UCNZ • Latin American diaspora • @[email protected] & @zentree in 🐦🔥 • Personal views, random commas • ojalá del ár. hisp. law šá lláh 'si Dios quiere' • Impermanence: posts last a week
Ōtautahi, Aotearoa | Christchurch, New Zealand
Ōtautahi, Aotearoa | Christchurch, New Zealand
Reposted by Luis Apiolaza
Righto. I've read the papers released by MBIE on the LNG analysis. This will be a longish thread on my thoughts, which I'll add to progressively. Docs are here. 🧵 1/-
Document library | Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment
A filtered search to all the documents stored on the MBIE website.
www.mbie.govt.nz
February 10, 2026 at 10:28 AM
Righto. I've read the papers released by MBIE on the LNG analysis. This will be a longish thread on my thoughts, which I'll add to progressively. Docs are here. 🧵 1/-
12/10 Matt gets it. tell your dog i said hi
February 10, 2026 at 8:27 PM
12/10 Matt gets it. tell your dog i said hi
Age verification? My driver’s license was a piece of paper without a photo.
Age verification?
February 10, 2026 at 7:31 PM
Age verification? My driver’s license was a piece of paper without a photo.
Reposted by Luis Apiolaza
Me, shopping at the book store: "excuse me, sir? which of these books was written the fastest? I'm looking for a book with as little thought and effort put into it as possible."
“If I can generate a book in a day, and you need six months to write a book, who’s going to win the race?” God this is bleak
The New Fabio Is Claude
www.nytimes.com
February 8, 2026 at 9:23 PM
Me, shopping at the book store: "excuse me, sir? which of these books was written the fastest? I'm looking for a book with as little thought and effort put into it as possible."
Reposted by Luis Apiolaza
I never noticed this either.
February 8, 2026 at 7:09 PM
I never noticed this either.
I'm deeply confused by this image.
February 8, 2026 at 7:26 PM
I'm deeply confused by this image.
Reposted by Luis Apiolaza
once again we must face the uncomfortable reality that between politics and being the only remaining reliable source for Google, Reddit is the best forum on the internet
if you spend any significant amount of time on X the everything app, your brain is being cooked
February 7, 2026 at 12:08 AM
once again we must face the uncomfortable reality that between politics and being the only remaining reliable source for Google, Reddit is the best forum on the internet
Couldn't they elect President Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Camacho instead?
February 6, 2026 at 1:52 AM
Couldn't they elect President Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Camacho instead?
I was looking for an outdoor watch. Something that I don't need to charge every other day, or every other week, and that is tough and I won't mind about scratching. ABC would be great. Something for a 180 mm wrist (7.1 in), so it's not humongous.
🧵
🧵
February 6, 2026 at 1:40 AM
I was looking for an outdoor watch. Something that I don't need to charge every other day, or every other week, and that is tough and I won't mind about scratching. ABC would be great. Something for a 180 mm wrist (7.1 in), so it's not humongous.
🧵
🧵
Reposted by Luis Apiolaza
Acompañadme a hacer ciencia...
Datos:
-Los dinosaurios no se extinguieron todos, son las aves de ahora
-El impacto del meteorito generó elevadas temperaturas del aire
Hipótesis irrefutable:
Hace 66 millones de años la Tierra estuvo horas, quizá días, oliendo a pollo asado
Datos:
-Los dinosaurios no se extinguieron todos, son las aves de ahora
-El impacto del meteorito generó elevadas temperaturas del aire
Hipótesis irrefutable:
Hace 66 millones de años la Tierra estuvo horas, quizá días, oliendo a pollo asado
February 1, 2026 at 1:34 PM
Acompañadme a hacer ciencia...
Datos:
-Los dinosaurios no se extinguieron todos, son las aves de ahora
-El impacto del meteorito generó elevadas temperaturas del aire
Hipótesis irrefutable:
Hace 66 millones de años la Tierra estuvo horas, quizá días, oliendo a pollo asado
Datos:
-Los dinosaurios no se extinguieron todos, son las aves de ahora
-El impacto del meteorito generó elevadas temperaturas del aire
Hipótesis irrefutable:
Hace 66 millones de años la Tierra estuvo horas, quizá días, oliendo a pollo asado
Reposted by Luis Apiolaza
My books cartoon for this week’s @theguardian.com
February 1, 2026 at 10:48 AM
My books cartoon for this week’s @theguardian.com
Schadenfreude: Latinos for Trump.
January 29, 2026 at 8:20 PM
Schadenfreude: Latinos for Trump.
This is THE thread I was waiting for. Tackling something that drives me mad.
It's time for Dishwash Discourse. I open by inviting invite evidence or support for my already-held view that dishwasher tablets are a racket: minimally distinct products within each brand priced at escalating premiums, number of tablets in pack different at each step, frequent discounting ...
January 27, 2026 at 7:12 PM
This is THE thread I was waiting for. Tackling something that drives me mad.
Reposted by Luis Apiolaza
stop using AI to do your research. it hallucinates too often. if you want an answer to something, post something arrogant on the appropriate subreddit. something like: "this item performs 10% better than everything else. only idiots deny this." this will bait nerds into doing your research for you.
January 26, 2026 at 7:53 AM
stop using AI to do your research. it hallucinates too often. if you want an answer to something, post something arrogant on the appropriate subreddit. something like: "this item performs 10% better than everything else. only idiots deny this." this will bait nerds into doing your research for you.
Reposted by Luis Apiolaza
Reposted by Luis Apiolaza
Unfortunately this Daniel Vernon cartoon resonated with me more than it should - especially as I've voted Labour for three decades now. I've decided that under @kevinhague.bsky.social & @taniawaikatolawyer.bsky.social I'll try Green this year unless something radical changes with team Red
January 25, 2026 at 3:16 AM
Unfortunately this Daniel Vernon cartoon resonated with me more than it should - especially as I've voted Labour for three decades now. I've decided that under @kevinhague.bsky.social & @taniawaikatolawyer.bsky.social I'll try Green this year unless something radical changes with team Red
Reposted by Luis Apiolaza
This excellent report from the Sydney Morning Herald details the Nazi terror links between Australia and New Zealand.
Follow @whiterosesociety.bsky.social for more info!
www.smh.com.au/national/a-s...
Follow @whiterosesociety.bsky.social for more info!
www.smh.com.au/national/a-s...
‘A scary time’: Nazi terror links revealed as disbanding sparks fears of violence
Experts say far-right extremists are more dangerous than ever, even as they officially split, and this masthead reveals the extent of their connection to terror cells around the world.
www.smh.com.au
January 25, 2026 at 6:17 AM
This excellent report from the Sydney Morning Herald details the Nazi terror links between Australia and New Zealand.
Follow @whiterosesociety.bsky.social for more info!
www.smh.com.au/national/a-s...
Follow @whiterosesociety.bsky.social for more info!
www.smh.com.au/national/a-s...
'The danger of superhuman AI is not what you think—The rhetoric over "superhuman" AI implicitly erases what’s most important about being human' by @shannonvallor.bsky.social
www.noemamag.com/the-danger-o...
www.noemamag.com/the-danger-o...
The Danger Of Superhuman AI Is Not What You Think | NOEMA
The rhetoric over “superhuman” AI implicitly erases what’s most important about being human.
www.noemamag.com
January 25, 2026 at 1:12 AM
'The danger of superhuman AI is not what you think—The rhetoric over "superhuman" AI implicitly erases what’s most important about being human' by @shannonvallor.bsky.social
www.noemamag.com/the-danger-o...
www.noemamag.com/the-danger-o...
Reposted by Luis Apiolaza
Nice demo, but this example shows why it is often not useful to plot raw coefficients, b/c they are on different scales. And why plot the intercept?
Standardized coefs are at least comparable.
Standardized coefs are at least comparable.
Here's a quick little example showing off tidy() vs. model_parameters(): andrewheiss.quarto.pub/parameters-v...
Maybe someday I'll make a longer, more official blog post showing glance() vs. model_performance() and augment() vs. marginaleffects::predictions() 🤷♂️ #rstats #easystats
Maybe someday I'll make a longer, more official blog post showing glance() vs. model_performance() and augment() vs. marginaleffects::predictions() 🤷♂️ #rstats #easystats
January 24, 2026 at 3:11 AM
Nice demo, but this example shows why it is often not useful to plot raw coefficients, b/c they are on different scales. And why plot the intercept?
Standardized coefs are at least comparable.
Standardized coefs are at least comparable.
Discovered while doing family history across ~125 years:
* My great-great-grandparents were illiterate.
* My great-grandparents had basic schooling.
* My grandparents completed high school.
* Some of my parents and uncles had university education (one with a Masters).
* I have a PhD.
* My great-great-grandparents were illiterate.
* My great-grandparents had basic schooling.
* My grandparents completed high school.
* Some of my parents and uncles had university education (one with a Masters).
* I have a PhD.
January 23, 2026 at 1:33 AM
Discovered while doing family history across ~125 years:
* My great-great-grandparents were illiterate.
* My great-grandparents had basic schooling.
* My grandparents completed high school.
* Some of my parents and uncles had university education (one with a Masters).
* I have a PhD.
* My great-great-grandparents were illiterate.
* My great-grandparents had basic schooling.
* My grandparents completed high school.
* Some of my parents and uncles had university education (one with a Masters).
* I have a PhD.
Missing the 'oh, shit, it's too cloudy or rainy in my city: tons of hours'
![Comic. My experience seeing the Northern Lights: [Graph: x axis is increasing time, y axis is increasing aurora coolness, going from visible glow on the horizon, color only visible in photos -> sheets and pillars of light, colors faintly visible -> “oh wow, it’s getting really bright now.” -> spectacular ribbons of color spanning the sky and illuminating the landscape. Graph shows dips and peaks over many hours with the topmost peeks for only around 5 or 10 minutes.] [caption] Aurora tip: If you get good views of the aurora, keep watching the sky; you might suddenly get great ones.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cz73r7iyiqn26upot4jtjdhk/bafkreiaobzgmrzo7wpvwm3z7h334szdf42salbn6skjuhfcxgsoeu7qjya@jpeg)
January 22, 2026 at 10:39 PM
Missing the 'oh, shit, it's too cloudy or rainy in my city: tons of hours'
Reposted by Luis Apiolaza
Historical Juxtaposition by Rod Emmerson @rodemmerson.bsky.social
January 21, 2026 at 3:33 PM
Historical Juxtaposition by Rod Emmerson @rodemmerson.bsky.social
Reposted by Luis Apiolaza
AI boom could falter without wider adoption, Microsoft chief Satya Nadella warns
AI boom could falter without wider adoption, Microsoft chief Satya Nadella warns
Big tech boss tells delegates at Davos that broader global use is essential if technology is to deliver lasting growth
www.irishtimes.com
January 20, 2026 at 12:46 PM
AI boom could falter without wider adoption, Microsoft chief Satya Nadella warns
Reposted by Luis Apiolaza
January 20, 2026 at 1:44 AM
Reposted by Luis Apiolaza
