Peter Neefs
@peterneefs.bsky.social
Observator
(Vrij allergisch voor Russische desinformatie. Bij voorbaat mijn excuses!)
(Vrij allergisch voor Russische desinformatie. Bij voorbaat mijn excuses!)
Pinned
Peter Neefs
@peterneefs.bsky.social
· Jan 1
It's New Year, so time to look back and forward. These are 10 things I think we need to recognise in 2026. It’s a response to what I think are profoundly damaging mistaken assumptions I’ve heard and read from practitioners, journalists, and analysts in 2025. Warning: very long🧵
🧵 worth reading: 🎯
Reposted by Peter Neefs
Wie van de twee liegt: Trump of Poetin? Antwoord: beiden zijn leugenaars! Wat doen Europa en Nederland? Verontwaardigde teksten publiceren op X en elders!
Beeld van Russische luchtaanvallen, ook op Kyiv, niettegenstaande Trumps mededeling over een moratorium tot 5 februari?👇
Beeld van Russische luchtaanvallen, ook op Kyiv, niettegenstaande Trumps mededeling over een moratorium tot 5 februari?👇
February 3, 2026 at 9:38 AM
Wie van de twee liegt: Trump of Poetin? Antwoord: beiden zijn leugenaars! Wat doen Europa en Nederland? Verontwaardigde teksten publiceren op X en elders!
Beeld van Russische luchtaanvallen, ook op Kyiv, niettegenstaande Trumps mededeling over een moratorium tot 5 februari?👇
Beeld van Russische luchtaanvallen, ook op Kyiv, niettegenstaande Trumps mededeling over een moratorium tot 5 februari?👇
Reposted by Peter Neefs
Western media doggedly omits the main reason Ukraine cannot cede Donbas— it’s fortified and it’d leave Ukr too vulnerable to reinvasion. Recognizing this fact reveals that the territorial and the security guarantee issues aren’t separate but one issue. Given that Ru obviously aims to keep trying…
Speaking in Davos earlier this month, Donald Trump told reporters he believed a deal on Ukraine was “reasonably close.”
And yet, Moscow and Kyiv remain stalled over three issues at the heart of the conflict.
🔗 www.politico.eu/article/peac...
And yet, Moscow and Kyiv remain stalled over three issues at the heart of the conflict.
🔗 www.politico.eu/article/peac...
February 1, 2026 at 7:28 PM
Western media doggedly omits the main reason Ukraine cannot cede Donbas— it’s fortified and it’d leave Ukr too vulnerable to reinvasion. Recognizing this fact reveals that the territorial and the security guarantee issues aren’t separate but one issue. Given that Ru obviously aims to keep trying…
Reposted by Peter Neefs
Do not pass this off as the ravings of a looney, old, narcissist. These false reports are going to be used to try and corrupt the 2026 elections by increasing White House Power over the vote. It could spark off the greatest crisis in the USA since the Civil War.
January 30, 2026 at 12:58 PM
Do not pass this off as the ravings of a looney, old, narcissist. These false reports are going to be used to try and corrupt the 2026 elections by increasing White House Power over the vote. It could spark off the greatest crisis in the USA since the Civil War.
Reposted by Peter Neefs
Why does the US keep suggesting Russia must consent to Ukraine exercising its UN Charter-guaranteed right to self-defence, in concert w its partners? Of course Russia is never going to agree! UA & partners shd do what's right for UA's security, not for Putin's hopes of renewing the Russian empire.
Rubio: “At the moment, Russia has not given its consent to the security guarantees for Ukraine that were reached by the USA and the European Union countries.”
January 28, 2026 at 8:44 PM
Why does the US keep suggesting Russia must consent to Ukraine exercising its UN Charter-guaranteed right to self-defence, in concert w its partners? Of course Russia is never going to agree! UA & partners shd do what's right for UA's security, not for Putin's hopes of renewing the Russian empire.
Reposted by Peter Neefs
"For more than 80 years, the US was the pre-eminent ally of Europe. The end of that alliance has seemed unthinkable, but it has nevertheless arrived, and wishing that things were different will not bring the alliance back to life." I wrote for @cepa.org on a post-US West. cepa.org/article/a-we...
A West Without America
The world is becoming a more troubled and dangerous place. Europe’s rift with the US must produce a new security deal for the West.
cepa.org
January 28, 2026 at 7:11 PM
"For more than 80 years, the US was the pre-eminent ally of Europe. The end of that alliance has seemed unthinkable, but it has nevertheless arrived, and wishing that things were different will not bring the alliance back to life." I wrote for @cepa.org on a post-US West. cepa.org/article/a-we...
Reposted by Peter Neefs
The reason Anne Frank's story has resonated with so many people over so many years is not because circumstances have to be exactly the same as her's for anyone to care, but because anything remotely like it is wrong, and societies moving in that direction should oppose it well before they get there.
January 28, 2026 at 7:57 PM
The reason Anne Frank's story has resonated with so many people over so many years is not because circumstances have to be exactly the same as her's for anyone to care, but because anything remotely like it is wrong, and societies moving in that direction should oppose it well before they get there.
Reposted by Peter Neefs
Today in @theguardian.com, I argue that Donald Trump’s foreign-policy playbook is increasingly about attention capture, or what I call geopolitical clickbait.
Plus I outline why this matters for Europe & what to do about it.
🧵
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Plus I outline why this matters for Europe & what to do about it.
🧵
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Trump wants our attention. Let’s stop falling for his geopolitical clickbait | Catherine De Vries
Whether he’s targeting Greenland, tariffs or Iran, Trump’s agenda is to distract – because a Europe that is always reacting is never planning, says political scientist Catherine De Vries
www.theguardian.com
January 28, 2026 at 7:05 AM
Today in @theguardian.com, I argue that Donald Trump’s foreign-policy playbook is increasingly about attention capture, or what I call geopolitical clickbait.
Plus I outline why this matters for Europe & what to do about it.
🧵
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Plus I outline why this matters for Europe & what to do about it.
🧵
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Reposted by Peter Neefs
Trump's relentless bullying of Ukraine presented as a "peace process" is making us sound like broken records. Like, how many times do we have to say that asking Ukraine to withdraw from its most fortified region in exchange for another useless Budapest memorandum offer is a dumb proposition?
January 28, 2026 at 4:54 AM
Trump's relentless bullying of Ukraine presented as a "peace process" is making us sound like broken records. Like, how many times do we have to say that asking Ukraine to withdraw from its most fortified region in exchange for another useless Budapest memorandum offer is a dumb proposition?
Reposted by Peter Neefs
Europe & Ukraine can keep flattering Trump, hoping that he won't stop the US selling weapons to UA or Europe, or supplying intelligence. They must not for an instant think that Trump is on their side. This is basically like Czechoslovakia being forced to give up its defences in the Sudetenland.
Trump is trying to give Russia exactly what they want & call it a ‘peace deal.’ It’s in fact a guarantee for a bigger war.
Donbas is Ukraine’s main line of defense. The region is heavily fortified & holds Russia back from attacking the rest of Ukraine, & from there the EU.
Donbas is Ukraine’s main line of defense. The region is heavily fortified & holds Russia back from attacking the rest of Ukraine, & from there the EU.
January 27, 2026 at 1:21 PM
Europe & Ukraine can keep flattering Trump, hoping that he won't stop the US selling weapons to UA or Europe, or supplying intelligence. They must not for an instant think that Trump is on their side. This is basically like Czechoslovakia being forced to give up its defences in the Sudetenland.
Reposted by Peter Neefs
Anyone surprised by this story has been living in a fantasy world. Since Jan 2025, the Trump administration has been using lots of different tactics to force Ukraine to commit strategic suicide. This is just the latest.
The real story is that people have not grasped this reality.
The real story is that people have not grasped this reality.
⚡️Ukraine war latest live: US presses Ukraine, not Russia, to pull back troops for proposed Donbas buffer zone – FT reports
Ukraine war latest updates: US not demanding Russian withdrawal from eastern border of proposed Donbas demilitarized zone, FT reports (5)
Live coverage of Russia’s war against Ukraine with breaking news and frontline updates, updated 5 times today. The U.S. is pressing Ukraine, but not Russia, to pull back troops from Donetsk and Luhans...
kyivindependent.com
January 27, 2026 at 9:37 AM
Anyone surprised by this story has been living in a fantasy world. Since Jan 2025, the Trump administration has been using lots of different tactics to force Ukraine to commit strategic suicide. This is just the latest.
The real story is that people have not grasped this reality.
The real story is that people have not grasped this reality.
Reposted by Peter Neefs
In the end there will be only one Trump Derangement Syndrome, and that will be those so deranged that they refused to accept that Trump was going to try and wreck the country.
January 25, 2026 at 9:29 PM
In the end there will be only one Trump Derangement Syndrome, and that will be those so deranged that they refused to accept that Trump was going to try and wreck the country.
Reposted by Peter Neefs
Realists who advocate compromise w Ru always claim/assume that all Ru wants from Ukr is to control its foreign policy. As Ru keeps partitioning Ukr and working to absorb each chunk through genocidal Russification, the realists’ stubborn denial of Ru’s attempt to destroy Ukr nation discredits them.
January 25, 2026 at 5:35 PM
Realists who advocate compromise w Ru always claim/assume that all Ru wants from Ukr is to control its foreign policy. As Ru keeps partitioning Ukr and working to absorb each chunk through genocidal Russification, the realists’ stubborn denial of Ru’s attempt to destroy Ukr nation discredits them.
Reposted by Peter Neefs
Putin pioneered this. No opposition is legitimate. Regular, decent, “ordinary” people cannot possibly be against us because only we represent “the real people.”
Tell-tale sign of authoritarianism.
Tell-tale sign of authoritarianism.
January 25, 2026 at 2:43 PM
Putin pioneered this. No opposition is legitimate. Regular, decent, “ordinary” people cannot possibly be against us because only we represent “the real people.”
Tell-tale sign of authoritarianism.
Tell-tale sign of authoritarianism.
Reposted by Peter Neefs
OTD in 1935 Hitler assured Poland he would not invade them. A few years later he said Germans were being oppressed & killed so he attacked, carried out genocide and spent the last years of his life in bunker detached from reality.
Imagine all that happening today.
Imagine all that happening today.
January 25, 2026 at 12:05 PM
OTD in 1935 Hitler assured Poland he would not invade them. A few years later he said Germans were being oppressed & killed so he attacked, carried out genocide and spent the last years of his life in bunker detached from reality.
Imagine all that happening today.
Imagine all that happening today.
Reposted by Peter Neefs
Understand that unless the people and states start resisting this violence it will continue and escalate, and expect ICE agents to be all over polling locations in November. Loyalty to the in-group is the only thing that matters to the Trump regime, and the out-group is dehumanised and destroyed.
January 25, 2026 at 8:59 AM
Understand that unless the people and states start resisting this violence it will continue and escalate, and expect ICE agents to be all over polling locations in November. Loyalty to the in-group is the only thing that matters to the Trump regime, and the out-group is dehumanised and destroyed.
Reposted by Peter Neefs
When faux-realists promise stability through concessions, they’re rolling out a red carpet to welcome a bigger war.
They offer suffering to those who don’t deserve it, telling us this is the justified cost of a “peaceful” settlement. They are wrong twice. It is not justified. And it brings no peace.
They offer suffering to those who don’t deserve it, telling us this is the justified cost of a “peaceful” settlement. They are wrong twice. It is not justified. And it brings no peace.
January 25, 2026 at 8:11 AM
When faux-realists promise stability through concessions, they’re rolling out a red carpet to welcome a bigger war.
They offer suffering to those who don’t deserve it, telling us this is the justified cost of a “peaceful” settlement. They are wrong twice. It is not justified. And it brings no peace.
They offer suffering to those who don’t deserve it, telling us this is the justified cost of a “peaceful” settlement. They are wrong twice. It is not justified. And it brings no peace.
Reposted by Peter Neefs
Funny how Ru courts sometimes acknowledge in trivial/sideway ways stuff that the Ru state lies about. Years before 2022, a Ru court acknowledged Ru had invaded Donbas in 2014 in a case about benefits to a Ru soldier who fought there. This phenomenon is less dramatic or hopeful than it might seem...
A Russian court has acknowledged that the cruiser Moskva was struck by Ukrainian Neptune missiles, with 20 sailors killed, 8 missing, and 24 wounded. The court notice was promptly removed. Previously, Russia insisted the ship sank due to an “accidental fire.”
January 23, 2026 at 5:04 PM
Funny how Ru courts sometimes acknowledge in trivial/sideway ways stuff that the Ru state lies about. Years before 2022, a Ru court acknowledged Ru had invaded Donbas in 2014 in a case about benefits to a Ru soldier who fought there. This phenomenon is less dramatic or hopeful than it might seem...
Reposted by Peter Neefs
1/Board of Peace is not about peace through cooperation but peace through dominance and extraction. Clear effort to replace rules-based international order with a structure that bolsters Trump and his effort to create a neo-royalist system.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/21/u...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/21/u...
Trump’s ‘Board of Peace’ Would Have Global Scope but One Man in Charge
www.nytimes.com
January 23, 2026 at 12:03 PM
1/Board of Peace is not about peace through cooperation but peace through dominance and extraction. Clear effort to replace rules-based international order with a structure that bolsters Trump and his effort to create a neo-royalist system.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/21/u...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/21/u...
Reposted by Peter Neefs
Stanovaya is right that a peace deal is very far apart, & that for Russia it's not primarily about territory but about political control over Ukraine. Putin has been consistent on this, & Trump & Witkoff don't get it. 1/2
January 22, 2026 at 6:45 PM
Stanovaya is right that a peace deal is very far apart, & that for Russia it's not primarily about territory but about political control over Ukraine. Putin has been consistent on this, & Trump & Witkoff don't get it. 1/2
Reposted by Peter Neefs
reads like the list of countries attending Russia's May 9 parades
Trump's "Board of Peace": Belarus, Morocco, Vietnam, Kazakhstan, Hungary, Armenia, Egypt, Kosovo, Pakistan, Paraguay, Albania, Uzbekistan, Bahrain, Qatar, Indonesia.
The US’s new sphere of influence.
The US’s new sphere of influence.
January 22, 2026 at 4:20 PM
reads like the list of countries attending Russia's May 9 parades
Reposted by Peter Neefs
Peak imperialism: your country is descending into the darkness at the speed of light, your own party is doing close to nothing to prevent it, but you travel around and condescendingly lecture other states about how to better resist the aggressor that your compatriots elected.
Gov. Newsom at Davos rips into world leaders who think they can appease Trump: “I should have brought a bunch of knee pads for all the world leaders.…this is pathetic”
January 21, 2026 at 8:20 AM
Peak imperialism: your country is descending into the darkness at the speed of light, your own party is doing close to nothing to prevent it, but you travel around and condescendingly lecture other states about how to better resist the aggressor that your compatriots elected.
Reposted by Peter Neefs
Everyone in Europe is having intense debates about the future of the transatlantic security alliance. Meanwhile, the president of the United States is reposting the claim that the real enemy of the US isn't Russia or China, it's NATO (and the UN and Islam).
January 20, 2026 at 5:15 PM
Everyone in Europe is having intense debates about the future of the transatlantic security alliance. Meanwhile, the president of the United States is reposting the claim that the real enemy of the US isn't Russia or China, it's NATO (and the UN and Islam).
Reposted by Peter Neefs
This is also from my predictions thread on inauguration day. There's still a media tendency to frame Trump admin foreign policy as driven by ideas about US national interests but it makes much more sense to see it as a product of personal and oligarchic interests. bsky.app/profile/ruth...
The behaviour of the Trump inner circle in term 1 and what we can see so far about the shape of term 2 suggest it would be a mistake to think of their foreign policy as intended to advance US interests - though, again, this is likely to be how most news coverage presents it.
January 20, 2026 at 3:31 PM
This is also from my predictions thread on inauguration day. There's still a media tendency to frame Trump admin foreign policy as driven by ideas about US national interests but it makes much more sense to see it as a product of personal and oligarchic interests. bsky.app/profile/ruth...
Reposted by Peter Neefs
People have to come to terms with the fact Trump confuses diplomacy for capitulation. He's posting this because he thinks it's a victory.
Trump posts what appears to be a private text message sent to him by Macron
January 20, 2026 at 7:29 AM
People have to come to terms with the fact Trump confuses diplomacy for capitulation. He's posting this because he thinks it's a victory.
Reposted by Peter Neefs
If you say that Putin should get Crimea or Donbas, then you can't say that Trump shouldn't get Greenland. It's the same redrawing of borders by great powers at the expense of smaller neighbours. Normalizing the annexation of Crimea has paved the way for Trump's Greenland demands.
January 20, 2026 at 7:28 AM
If you say that Putin should get Crimea or Donbas, then you can't say that Trump shouldn't get Greenland. It's the same redrawing of borders by great powers at the expense of smaller neighbours. Normalizing the annexation of Crimea has paved the way for Trump's Greenland demands.