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Q McCallum

@qethanm.bsky.social

590 followers 110 following 1.1K posts

research: AI, risk, complexity, finance history Some posts in 🇫🇷 🇩🇪 🇷🇺 - newsletter: https://complex-machinery.com - fortunes: @fortuneexmachina.com‬ - blog: https://qethanm.cc - Radar: https://www.oreilly.com/people/q-mccallum-2

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Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · Apr 25

Periodic reminder: I publish a newsletter, Complex Machinery, on the intersection of AI and risk.

It's my way of explaining all the fun and not-so-fun happenings in the AI world.

You can read online or subscribe to get it in your inbox:

newsletter.complex-machinery.com

Complex Machinery

Welcome to Complex Machinery, a newsletter about the intersection of AI and risk. It occasionally dips into related matters like complexity, business models, emerging tech, and marketplaces. (While t...

newsletter.complex-machinery.com

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Reposted by Q McCallum

Data Behind the Scenes Conference @databsconf.com · 1h

Highlighting #DataBS Conf talks:

How can data tell you when a customer will cancel their service? Are you taking the hard route in figuring this out? And what does this have to do with butter?

In other words ... Matthew Brandt talks about churn prediction:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9DB...

DataBS 2025 - 02 - Matthew Brandt -Churn Prediction: We thought it was hard but it was easy

YouTube video by Data Behind the Scenes

www.youtube.com

Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 37m

Interesting read, for the look into business models and processes.

And if you squint just right, there are some subtle notes on connectedness, complexity, and risk:

Jim Waterson @jim.londoncentric.media · 9h

You might have heard of 'dark kitchens' when a row of sheds in a car park churn out food for Deliveroo. They're unpopular and low margin. So the next big thing in London food is 'host kitchens' where local pubs, restaurants and kebab shops cook for big brands. www.londoncentric.media/p/host-kitch...

Why your next upmarket Deliveroo might be made by your local kebab shop

"On one hand, it’s a lifeline... But on the other hand, it’s a harbinger of doom.”

www.londoncentric.media

Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 21h

The tl;dr version:

Did your company approach AI with a mindset of risk-taking and risk management? Good.

You've done your homework, traced the connections, and prepared for a variety of outcomes.

That's the best you can do to prepare for the question mark we call the future.

Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 21h

Given recent headlines, people keep asking me whether AI is in a bubble and whether that bubble is about to collapse.

I wrote about this last month in my newsletter.

(Second segment, "The road ahead")

newsletter.complex-machinery.com/archive/044-...

Excerpt from Complex Machinery 044:
>> People keep asking me whether this is a sign that genAI is about to collapse.
>>
>> My answer is a two-parter:
1/ Who knows? Maybe AI flatlines... Maybe it does its Bitcoin impression, taking a brief dip before hitting record highs… Maybe something else. It's the future! It's up for grabs.
>>
>> 2/ Why would you care? If you've done your homework, the twists and turns of the genAI hype wave won't matter to you all that much.

Excerpt from Complex Machinery 044:

>> It helps to zoom out and take the measured, dispassionate approach of an investor:
>>
>> Whether you've invested in AI directly (by purchasing shares of genAI providers' stock) or indirectly (by building your products on top of those providers or using such tools) you've chosen to take on exposure to AI. That is, you've accepted the investment's inherent risk/reward tradeoff – "I get my money back in spades," "I get nothing back," "I get a little money back." As a friend likes to remind me: Buy the ticket, ride the ride.

Excerpt from Complex Machinery 044:

>> Now, whether you've _acknowledged_ your risk/reward tradeoff is another matter. If you first performed a risk assessment to get an idea of the possible ups and downs, and then worked out how various possible outcomes might impact you, you're not afraid. You may not be happy with how things go, but you went in with eyes wide open. You can sit back and watch it all happen, because you did your homework.
>>
>> If you _didn't_ do your homework, your emotional state is tied to every AI-related headline.

Reposted by Q McCallum

Fortune Ex Machina @fortuneexmachina.com · 1d

fortuneexmachina.com/fortunes/f48...

AI-generated fortune:

>> Congratulations, as you have been promoted to a new level of
success.

- Fortune Ex Machina

Reposted by Q McCallum

Paul McNamara @mpaulmcnamara.bsky.social · 2d

„Why do they call them corrections on the way down if they don’t call them mistakes on the way up?”. Almost literally everyone is calling this one a mistake on the way up.

The Guardian @theguardian.com · 3d

Bank of England warns of growing risk that AI bubble could burst

Possibility of ‘sharp market correction has increased’, says Bank’s financial policy committee * Business live – latest updates The Bank of England has warned there is a growing risk of a “sudden correction” in global markets as it raised concerns about soaring valuations of leading AI tech companies. Policymakers said there were also threats of a “sharp repricing of US dollar assets” if the Federal Reserve lost credibility in the eyes of global investors. It comes as Donald Trump’s continues to attack the US central bank and threaten its independence. Continue reading...

www.theguardian.com

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Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 2d

Increasingly uncomfortable with that whole "comedy holds a mirror to society" thing...

Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 2d

In the latest Complex Machinery:

Reports claim that AI has reached "bubble" status ... right as the field is taking on more debt. And _someone_ says it's cool because this would be the _good_ kind of bubble.

newsletter.complex-machinery.com/archive/046-...

#dataBS #aisky

#046 - It's a long way down

genAI keeps digging a hole. Will it be able to climb out?

newsletter.complex-machinery.com

Reposted by Q McCallum

Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 3d

NVIDIA and OpenAi:

Concerns that their “increasingly complex and interconnected web of business transactions is artificially propping up the trillion-dollar AI boom.“

@bloomberg.com $NVDA 👀
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

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Reposted by Q McCallum

Barry Ritholtz @ritholtz.bsky.social · 3d

Amazon is having a big sale on How NOT to Invest!
It's $21.19 -- 36% off -- with free overnight delivery.

Grab a copy now, and give some away as gifts!

www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/...

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Reposted by Q McCallum

Fortune Ex Machina @fortuneexmachina.com · 3d

fortuneexmachina.com/fortunes/14f...

AI-generated fortune:

>> Nurture your knowledge, for an open book can guide even the most wandering of souls.

- Fortune Ex Machina

Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 3d

(Yes, I am behind on some podcast listens. But Unhedged is worth the time even if I am two weeks late to the party.)

(And in this case, the Tricolor and First Brands dramas are still going ... so ...)

Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 3d

In which @katie0martin.ft.com and @robarmstrong.bsky.social share the collective noun for canaries:

an aria (or an opera)

They were talking about corporate debt, but I have a hunch I will need this for the AI coal mine ...

open.spotify.com/episode/2V0Q...

Spotify – Web Player

open.spotify.com

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Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 3d

Anyone else getting flashbacks? Specifically, to Paulson's group tracing out Nth-order connections to subprime lenders 2006-2007 ..?

Robert Smith @bondhack.ft.com · 3d

🔥FIRST BRANDS NIGHTMARE ON WALL STREET SPREADS TO PARADEPLATZ 🔥

A UBS fund has 30 per cent of its portfolio tied to the failed First Brands Group, leaving Switzerland’s largest bank grappling with a bankruptcy that has convulsed global finance.

Lots more scoopy detail here: on.ft.com/46VXxhD

UBS fund holds 30% exposure linked to First Brands

[FREE TO READ] Switzerland’s largest bank has multiple investments tied to bankrupt auto parts maker

on.ft.com

Reposted by Q McCallum

Data Behind the Scenes Conference @databsconf.com · 3d

Highlighting #DataBS Conf talks:

Two talks actually took place _before_ the live event, as part of our preshow.

In the first one, Krysta Chauncey, Ph.D. described collecting UX data for autonomous vehicles. There was a bit of a magic act involved:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qel...

Wizard without the Curtain, Krysta Chauncey, Ph.D. -- DataBS 2025 Pre-show

YouTube video by Data Behind the Scenes

www.youtube.com

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Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 4d

Careful -- they never really lose those combat reflexes

Reposted by Q McCallum

Barry Ritholtz @ritholtz.bsky.social · 4d

The difference between Politics and Investing? You can win an election proclaiming the world is flat. But try deploying capital based on false beliefs; Mr. Market will soon disabuse you of any foolish ideas as it quietly separates fools from their money...

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Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 4d

Point being: I'm accustomed to having to pull these various threads together for people across different fields ... and now it's happening al on its own.

Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 4d

On the one hand: business news is wild these days.

On the other hand: as someone forged in the Dot-Com bust who still keeps a toehold in finance and has studied asset bubbles (for fun, no less) ... I'm ... I'm kind of in my element?

This is a weird feeling.

Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 4d

Yep. I see plenty of failures.

And borrowing an idea from complex systems:

When a bunch of smaller failures collide in an unfortunate manner, they create something far greater than the sum of the parts.

Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 4d

About the most I can squeeze into a social media post is:

The excitement (and payoff expectations of AI) are driving companies to try to try it anywhere they can, without thinking.

(More on that in tomorrow's newsletter.)

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Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 4d

Yes -- the phrase "this time, it's different" is usually an excuse for business shenanigans ...

... but for genAI this does indeed feel like a different animal compared to Dot-Com, cloud, DS/ML, and other tech booms.

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Reposted by Q McCallum

Data Behind the Scenes Conference @databsconf.com · 4d

The videos from the #DataBS Conference have made it to YouTube!

Over the coming days, we'll highlight sessisons from the event -- one post per talk.

You can also sneak ahead by going straight to the YouTube playlist, here:

www.youtube.com/playlist?lis...

Data Behind the Scenes 2025 - YouTube

Data Behind the Scenes is a data conference by data practitioners, for data practitioners. We come together to share stories and experiences about the the me...

www.youtube.com

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Reposted by Q McCallum

Luke Kawa @ljkawa.bsky.social · 5d

imo, AI <capex> is doing more than AI <adoption> in providing the appearance of a productivity boom.

That can change, ofc, but careful with conflation.

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Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 4d

[blinks out Morse Code in consultant]