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Robert (Bob) Kubinec

@rmkubinec.bsky.social

9.9K followers 450 following 4.1K posts

Political scientist University of South Carolina. Interests: business politics/corruption, Middle East, measurement, Bayesian statistics The Bayesian Hitman: https://a.co/d/e4QmtKo Website: www.robertkubinec.com

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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · Jan 20

🧵 👋 I'm a political scientist who wrote a book about the recent collapse of two democracies (Egypt & Tunisia).

Given the anxieties of today, let me present a 🧵 with thoughts & resources for:

WHAT TO DO IF YOUR DEMOCRACY COLLAPSES:

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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 5h

Wow so two-way fixed effects is now in the White House, kinda cool ngl

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 13h

RFK Jr on Tylenol and autism: "It is not proof. We're doing the studies to make the proof."

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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 9h

Yeah I don't even know what it means, I just see all the cool philosophy people saying it

Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 9h

This 👇 is what democracy scholars have been worried about with the Trump admin. We are now facing a serious erosion of democracy and the rise of a new authoritarian regime.

HOWEVER, the Trump admin has overplayed its hand several times already, and with enough pushback, this could also fail.

Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 10h

Admin cracking down on Soros, Indivisible, ActBlue, & Jewish peace groups is incredible projection in light of federal contractor El*n M*sk spending more on politics in 2024 than anybody in human history and all the big money corruption of 2025

www.reuters.com/legal/govern...

www.reuters.com

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Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec

Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 10h

www.reuters.com

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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 10h

We should pronounce IR as "Ur" so that we could have "Ur-Politics"

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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 10h

Yes, see, if we get rid of the immigrants, then Americans will win all the Nobel Prizes

OH WAIT

Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 10h

Immigrants have been awarded 40% of the Nobel Prizes won by Americans in chemistry, medicine and physics since 2000. nfap.com/research/new...

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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 10h

yes, because what if the word definition changes over time, then it wouldn't be fully reproducible 😬

Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 10h

but is the definition pulled directly from the Merriam Webster API, that's the question

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 16h

we have been working on this new polling aggregation website for a few months now, and are excited to share it with the world! plenty more features and polls to come.

FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 16h

new polls website just dropped fiftyplusone.news

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Jack McGovan @jackmcgovan.bsky.social · 16h

With Jane Goodall's death last week and the Nobel Prize announcements this week, I wrote about why it's a big problem that we lionise individuals for achievements that resulted from the work of collective groups of people.

We spend too much time lionising people like Jane Goodall

Idolising people only entrenches the idea that it is spectacular individuals, not collectives, who change the world.

www.sower.world

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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 1d

nothing to see here folks, move along, ok

Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 1d

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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 1d

Lord have mercy

BeijingPalmer @beijingpalmer.bsky.social · 1d

Marco Rubio is going to hell.

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Jon Cooper @joncooper-us.bsky.social · 2d

Cartoon by @ivan-ehlers.bsky.social.

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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 1d

Huh, opaque loans in the U.S. banking system as interest rates remain high and employment growth stalls, what could go wrong? 🤔

Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 1d

“.. NDFIs now account for some 33% of all commercial and industrial loans originated by large banks, according to J.P. Morgan Securities ..” 👀

$JEF
www.barrons.com/articles/fir...

Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec

Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 1d

Among other things, the prevelances of these responses should inform how confident you assess respondents who provide other answers are in their views. I love @mattgraham.bsky.social's paper on this: m-graham.com/papers/Graha...

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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 1d

Sometimes just forming & holding to an opinion can be an act of defiance to an authoritarian regime.

Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 1d

If I can make a comment on the analysis I'm seeing of U.S. polling, it's that people ignore the "don't know/no opinion category."

But that may actually be the important category as polarization + authoritarianism means people want to drop out altogether. I'd like more modeling of the don't knows.

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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 1d

Two highly surprising events happened this week:

1. AG Bondi declined yet again to release all of the Epstein files.
2. MPSA extended its hard deadline for submissions for its 2026 conference.

Just crazy times we live in, I guess.

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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 1d

True, but he was actually the 11th co-author on most of the wars and only contributed funding, no article drafting or implementation.

WIRED @wired.com · 1d

The recipient of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize will be announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee on Friday October 10. US president Donald Trump has repeatedly touted his suitability to become a Nobel laureate, including claiming that he has “stopped seven wars.”

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Peter Gleick @petergleick.bsky.social · 1d

This is not normal, this is fascism. Never let it become normal.

Reuter headline "Trump calls for jailing Democratic leaders as troops prepare for Chicago deployment"

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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 1d

So they're saying they want to live in one of the most unaffordable cities in the world

Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 1d

who wants to be like dubai?

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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 1d

It's strange to see these "cost estimates" of charging cars in the NYT that don't take into account the cost of actually doing the charging.

Driving to a gas station, especially in places where they are crowded/rare, is a big time cost vs. charging at home.

cost breakdown of electric car vs. gasoline charging

Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 1d

sending thoughts, prayers, and trip hop beats

Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 1d

#WarRavagedPortland