Robert (Bob) Kubinec
@rmkubinec.bsky.social
Political scientist University of South Carolina. Interests: business politics/corruption, Middle East, measurement, Bayesian statistics
The Bayesian Hitman: https://a.co/d/e4QmtKo
Website: www.robertkubinec.com
The Bayesian Hitman: https://a.co/d/e4QmtKo
Website: www.robertkubinec.com
Pinned
🧵 👋 I'm a political scientist who wrote a book about the recent collapse of two democracies (Egypt & Tunisia).
Given the anxieties of today, let me present a 🧵 with thoughts & resources for:
WHAT TO DO IF YOUR DEMOCRACY COLLAPSES:
Given the anxieties of today, let me present a 🧵 with thoughts & resources for:
WHAT TO DO IF YOUR DEMOCRACY COLLAPSES:
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
Our whole political order depends on our ability to complain, to criticize, to speak truth to power, and to question authority.
Never forget how the free speech brigade, once in control of our peak institutions, immediately suppressed any criticism of the most powerful people in the world.
Never forget how the free speech brigade, once in control of our peak institutions, immediately suppressed any criticism of the most powerful people in the world.
I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
November 25, 2025 at 12:04 PM
Our whole political order depends on our ability to complain, to criticize, to speak truth to power, and to question authority.
Never forget how the free speech brigade, once in control of our peak institutions, immediately suppressed any criticism of the most powerful people in the world.
Never forget how the free speech brigade, once in control of our peak institutions, immediately suppressed any criticism of the most powerful people in the world.
Chris is doing some brilliant work in the area of explainable/accountable #AI. I highly recommend attending the session below to learn about how #AI can be applied to real-world problems *without* screwing up.
#rstats #academicsky #polisky #econsky
#rstats #academicsky #polisky #econsky
Very happy to host Chris Barrie tomorrow at noon EST on "Reasoning models and synthetic data generation".
All welcome.
Zoom: utoronto.zoom.us/j/4784708970
Details: rohanalexander.com/tdw.html
All welcome.
Zoom: utoronto.zoom.us/j/4784708970
Details: rohanalexander.com/tdw.html
November 25, 2025 at 3:08 PM
I want to point out that it's not necessarily a good idea for the regime to argue that the military can obey "illegal orders" when the autocrat is very unpopular among the public and the minister of defense is even more unpopular among the officer corps.
That's a great setting for a coup.
That's a great setting for a coup.
Congress has the constitutional duty to make rules for the government and regulation of the land and naval forces (Article I, Section 8, Clause 14). It enacted the UCMJ, which specifies that service members must obey only “lawful” orders and,
November 25, 2025 at 3:07 PM
I want to point out that it's not necessarily a good idea for the regime to argue that the military can obey "illegal orders" when the autocrat is very unpopular among the public and the minister of defense is even more unpopular among the officer corps.
That's a great setting for a coup.
That's a great setting for a coup.
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
Very happy to host Chris Barrie tomorrow at noon EST on "Reasoning models and synthetic data generation".
All welcome.
Zoom: utoronto.zoom.us/j/4784708970
Details: rohanalexander.com/tdw.html
All welcome.
Zoom: utoronto.zoom.us/j/4784708970
Details: rohanalexander.com/tdw.html
November 25, 2025 at 2:19 PM
Very happy to host Chris Barrie tomorrow at noon EST on "Reasoning models and synthetic data generation".
All welcome.
Zoom: utoronto.zoom.us/j/4784708970
Details: rohanalexander.com/tdw.html
All welcome.
Zoom: utoronto.zoom.us/j/4784708970
Details: rohanalexander.com/tdw.html
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
📢 We’re thrilled to announce the launch of our new “Research Fellows” program! 🎉
If you’ve contributed to a Replication Game, published in our Discussion Papers series, or helped organize one of our events — you’re invited to join the roster of I4R Research Fellows.
If you’ve contributed to a Replication Game, published in our Discussion Papers series, or helped organize one of our events — you’re invited to join the roster of I4R Research Fellows.
November 25, 2025 at 2:11 PM
📢 We’re thrilled to announce the launch of our new “Research Fellows” program! 🎉
If you’ve contributed to a Replication Game, published in our Discussion Papers series, or helped organize one of our events — you’re invited to join the roster of I4R Research Fellows.
If you’ve contributed to a Replication Game, published in our Discussion Papers series, or helped organize one of our events — you’re invited to join the roster of I4R Research Fellows.
The reason that US academics have collaborations with European colleagues is so that they can keep working over Thanksgiving without feeling guilty.
November 25, 2025 at 1:31 PM
The reason that US academics have collaborations with European colleagues is so that they can keep working over Thanksgiving without feeling guilty.
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
The EPA has approved a new pesticide that contains PFAS, or 'forever chemicals', to be used on vegetables like lettuce, broccoli and potatoes.
November 24, 2025 at 4:36 PM
The EPA has approved a new pesticide that contains PFAS, or 'forever chemicals', to be used on vegetables like lettuce, broccoli and potatoes.
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
I swore an oath to the Constitution in 1986. I've upheld it through 25 years of service and every day since I retired.
If Trump's trying to intimidate me, it won’t work. I’ve given too much to our country to be silenced by bullies who care more about power than the Constitution.
If Trump's trying to intimidate me, it won’t work. I’ve given too much to our country to be silenced by bullies who care more about power than the Constitution.
November 24, 2025 at 8:27 PM
I swore an oath to the Constitution in 1986. I've upheld it through 25 years of service and every day since I retired.
If Trump's trying to intimidate me, it won’t work. I’ve given too much to our country to be silenced by bullies who care more about power than the Constitution.
If Trump's trying to intimidate me, it won’t work. I’ve given too much to our country to be silenced by bullies who care more about power than the Constitution.
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
Again, every elected Democrat needs to put out a video stating exactly what Kelly and the others said. If ever there were a line to draw in the sand, it’s here. The military is not the president’s Praetorian Guard.
“Within the White House, Trump and his lieutenants aren’t planning on letting up…Trump has told some advisers that he wants RICO prosecutions and conspiracy charges leveled against the six Democrats, a source with direct knowledge of the matter tells Zeteo…
zeteo.com/p/how-we-gre...
zeteo.com/p/how-we-gre...
November 24, 2025 at 7:30 PM
Again, every elected Democrat needs to put out a video stating exactly what Kelly and the others said. If ever there were a line to draw in the sand, it’s here. The military is not the president’s Praetorian Guard.
Academia is 2% inspiration and 98% reformatting papers to fit arbitrary journal requirements.
November 24, 2025 at 7:40 PM
Academia is 2% inspiration and 98% reformatting papers to fit arbitrary journal requirements.
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
Some big news: I'll be joining the University of South Carolina's Department of Political Science as an Assistant Professor in August 2026! Next summer we are Columbia bound.
November 24, 2025 at 4:25 PM
Some big news: I'll be joining the University of South Carolina's Department of Political Science as an Assistant Professor in August 2026! Next summer we are Columbia bound.
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
🚨 New working paper!
How well do people predict the results of studies?
@sdellavi.bsky.social and I leverage data from the first 100 studies to have been posted on the SSPP, containing 1,482 key questions, on which over 50,000 forecasts were placed. Some surprising results below.... 🧵👇
How well do people predict the results of studies?
@sdellavi.bsky.social and I leverage data from the first 100 studies to have been posted on the SSPP, containing 1,482 key questions, on which over 50,000 forecasts were placed. Some surprising results below.... 🧵👇
November 24, 2025 at 3:43 PM
🚨 New working paper!
How well do people predict the results of studies?
@sdellavi.bsky.social and I leverage data from the first 100 studies to have been posted on the SSPP, containing 1,482 key questions, on which over 50,000 forecasts were placed. Some surprising results below.... 🧵👇
How well do people predict the results of studies?
@sdellavi.bsky.social and I leverage data from the first 100 studies to have been posted on the SSPP, containing 1,482 key questions, on which over 50,000 forecasts were placed. Some surprising results below.... 🧵👇
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
I saw many replies to this post, rationalising/justifying political violence on the left. So, I just want to put this out there: political violence makes our society unsafe, unstable, and rarely results in intended outcomes. The New Yorker made a good case against political violence recently.
The Mystery of the Political Assassin
Even in cases like Luigi Mangione’s, the intentions of assassins are dwarfed by the meanings we project onto them.
www.newyorker.com
November 24, 2025 at 3:01 PM
I saw many replies to this post, rationalising/justifying political violence on the left. So, I just want to put this out there: political violence makes our society unsafe, unstable, and rarely results in intended outcomes. The New Yorker made a good case against political violence recently.
Kind of worrying that I can post something as anodyne as "political violence is bad", but I still get pushback on this web site.
Not great, Bob.
Not great, Bob.
Leftist violence is just as scary as rightist violence even if the former happens less often (thankfully).
Important to remember that virtually any ideology can be weaponised.
Important to remember that virtually any ideology can be weaponised.
Earlier this year, I attended a shooting competition for queer, often trans, very online misfits. Then Charlie Kirk was killed. www.wired.com/story/the-ha...
November 24, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Kind of worrying that I can post something as anodyne as "political violence is bad", but I still get pushback on this web site.
Not great, Bob.
Not great, Bob.
And let's remember too that violence rarely achieves its (supposedly) desired outcome.
Who gained new prominence after the killing of Charlie Kirk? Nick Fuentes. You don't need to be a Charlie Kirk fan to acknowledge that was not a good trade.
Who gained new prominence after the killing of Charlie Kirk? Nick Fuentes. You don't need to be a Charlie Kirk fan to acknowledge that was not a good trade.
Leftist violence is just as scary as rightist violence even if the former happens less often (thankfully).
Important to remember that virtually any ideology can be weaponised.
Important to remember that virtually any ideology can be weaponised.
Earlier this year, I attended a shooting competition for queer, often trans, very online misfits. Then Charlie Kirk was killed. www.wired.com/story/the-ha...
November 24, 2025 at 2:04 PM
And let's remember too that violence rarely achieves its (supposedly) desired outcome.
Who gained new prominence after the killing of Charlie Kirk? Nick Fuentes. You don't need to be a Charlie Kirk fan to acknowledge that was not a good trade.
Who gained new prominence after the killing of Charlie Kirk? Nick Fuentes. You don't need to be a Charlie Kirk fan to acknowledge that was not a good trade.
This should be surprising to no one. Whenever you use social media and interact/read anonymous social media accounts, you are almost certainly engaging with media manipulation by state intelligence services.
Holy shit. So Elon decides it would be nice to know what region of the world people are posting from. So they add that little feature.
2 hours later they figure out that many Trump supporters with millions of followers are posting from other countries. Surprise!
That "feature" is now gone.
2 hours later they figure out that many Trump supporters with millions of followers are posting from other countries. Surprise!
That "feature" is now gone.
November 24, 2025 at 1:44 PM
This should be surprising to no one. Whenever you use social media and interact/read anonymous social media accounts, you are almost certainly engaging with media manipulation by state intelligence services.
Though Meta likely did this less out of bias and more out of their inability to maintain a consistent corporate structure for more than 2 weeks 😅
Meta halted internal research that purportedly showed (young) people who stopped using Facebook became less depressed and anxious, according to an unredacted legal filing released on Friday. www.cnbc.com/2025/11/23/m...
Meta halted internal research suggesting social media harm, court filing alleges
Meta is alleged to have halted internal research suggesting social media harm, according to court documents.
www.cnbc.com
November 24, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Though Meta likely did this less out of bias and more out of their inability to maintain a consistent corporate structure for more than 2 weeks 😅
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
Leftist violence is just as scary as rightist violence even if the former happens less often (thankfully).
Important to remember that virtually any ideology can be weaponised.
Important to remember that virtually any ideology can be weaponised.
Earlier this year, I attended a shooting competition for queer, often trans, very online misfits. Then Charlie Kirk was killed. www.wired.com/story/the-ha...
The Hard-Left Shooters Leading a Gun Culture Revolution
Earlier this year, I attended a shooting competition for queer, often trans, very online misfits. Then Charlie Kirk was killed.
www.wired.com
November 24, 2025 at 12:43 PM
Leftist violence is just as scary as rightist violence even if the former happens less often (thankfully).
Important to remember that virtually any ideology can be weaponised.
Important to remember that virtually any ideology can be weaponised.
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
Just follow orders or obey the law? What US troops told us about refusing illegal commands buff.ly/Kq2TASq
Just follow orders or obey the law? What US troops told us about refusing illegal commands
A majority of service members understand the distinction between legal and illegal orders.
theconversation.com
November 24, 2025 at 12:03 PM
Just follow orders or obey the law? What US troops told us about refusing illegal commands buff.ly/Kq2TASq
The pro democracy coalition should be big, and tactical alliances can be very helpful.
But
But
A lot of the people lamenting Marjorie Taylor Greene’s departure from Congress—and celebrating her as some kind of principled maverick—are going to end up eating their words when she reemerges in 2028 to help lead a pro-groper, pro-Fuentes “America First” faction of the GOP.
November 22, 2025 at 11:06 PM
The pro democracy coalition should be big, and tactical alliances can be very helpful.
But
But
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
Relying on ChatGPT to teach you about a topic leaves you with shallower knowledge than Googling and reading about it, according to new research that compared what more than 10,000 people knew after using one method or the other.
Shared by @gizmodo.com: buff.ly/yAAHtHq
Shared by @gizmodo.com: buff.ly/yAAHtHq
Learning With AI Falls Short Compared to Old-Fashioned Web Search
In virtually all the ways that matter, getting summarized information from AI models was less educational than doing the work of search.
buff.ly
November 22, 2025 at 11:03 PM
Relying on ChatGPT to teach you about a topic leaves you with shallower knowledge than Googling and reading about it, according to new research that compared what more than 10,000 people knew after using one method or the other.
Shared by @gizmodo.com: buff.ly/yAAHtHq
Shared by @gizmodo.com: buff.ly/yAAHtHq
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
New evidence that twin estimates of heritability should be adjusted downward by about half
So there you have it, twin study estimates were greatly inflated, and molecular data sets the record straight. I walk through possible counter-arguments, but ultimately the uncomfortable truth is that genes contribute to traits much less than we always thought.
November 22, 2025 at 2:53 AM
New evidence that twin estimates of heritability should be adjusted downward by about half
Wow I just got a banger of a paper to review 😅
The conclusions are a bit disturbing too 😬
The conclusions are a bit disturbing too 😬
November 21, 2025 at 3:36 PM
Wow I just got a banger of a paper to review 😅
The conclusions are a bit disturbing too 😬
The conclusions are a bit disturbing too 😬