Robin Potter
@robinpotter.bsky.social
Academy Associate, UK in the World Programme @chathamhouse.org. Former Labour staffer and civil servant.
Substack: https://open.substack.com/pub/robinjpotter
Substack: https://open.substack.com/pub/robinjpotter
Pinned
Robin Potter
@robinpotter.bsky.social
· Dec 2
The Hunt for the UK's Submarines
What is the threat to Britain’s home waters, and is it equipped to deal with it?
open.substack.com
This week on the blog, a deep dive (pardon the pun) on the Russian undersea threat to the UK’s home waters, and whether it is equipped to deal with it
Reposted by Robin Potter
A new national police force is the right move, but the case for merging local forces is much weaker
@cassiarowland.bsky.social gives her verdict on the home secretary's proposals on police reform www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/poli...
@cassiarowland.bsky.social gives her verdict on the home secretary's proposals on police reform www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/poli...
A new national police force is the right move, but the case for merging local forces is much weaker | Institute for Government
There is much to welcome in the home secretary’s proposals on police reform.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
January 29, 2026 at 12:21 PM
A new national police force is the right move, but the case for merging local forces is much weaker
@cassiarowland.bsky.social gives her verdict on the home secretary's proposals on police reform www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/poli...
@cassiarowland.bsky.social gives her verdict on the home secretary's proposals on police reform www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/poli...
Reposted by Robin Potter
Dozens of shadow fleet tankers have traversed the English Channel since promises of tougher stance.
Danish Straits see about the same numbers.
BBC is not clear on if they mean flagless or flagged tankers, but either way there are lots.
Pic related, sanctioned tankers this minute.
Danish Straits see about the same numbers.
BBC is not clear on if they mean flagless or flagged tankers, but either way there are lots.
Pic related, sanctioned tankers this minute.
January 23, 2026 at 6:39 AM
Dozens of shadow fleet tankers have traversed the English Channel since promises of tougher stance.
Danish Straits see about the same numbers.
BBC is not clear on if they mean flagless or flagged tankers, but either way there are lots.
Pic related, sanctioned tankers this minute.
Danish Straits see about the same numbers.
BBC is not clear on if they mean flagless or flagged tankers, but either way there are lots.
Pic related, sanctioned tankers this minute.
457 British service personnel died in Afghanistan
A sacrifice Trump betrayed in the Doha Agreement with the Taliban (UK and NATO not even in the room), and Biden carried through
Should be clear enough by now that the British government must build capacity to defend its interests without the US
A sacrifice Trump betrayed in the Doha Agreement with the Taliban (UK and NATO not even in the room), and Biden carried through
Should be clear enough by now that the British government must build capacity to defend its interests without the US
January 22, 2026 at 5:21 PM
457 British service personnel died in Afghanistan
A sacrifice Trump betrayed in the Doha Agreement with the Taliban (UK and NATO not even in the room), and Biden carried through
Should be clear enough by now that the British government must build capacity to defend its interests without the US
A sacrifice Trump betrayed in the Doha Agreement with the Taliban (UK and NATO not even in the room), and Biden carried through
Should be clear enough by now that the British government must build capacity to defend its interests without the US
We need more publications from UK defence and intelligence sources in this style
2025 UK Strategic Defence Review said defence needed to reconnect with society as part of a national conversation on security
Contrast MI5’s threat update with, for example, the equivalent Estonian agency’s yearbooks
2025 UK Strategic Defence Review said defence needed to reconnect with society as part of a national conversation on security
Contrast MI5’s threat update with, for example, the equivalent Estonian agency’s yearbooks
January 22, 2026 at 1:37 PM
We need more publications from UK defence and intelligence sources in this style
2025 UK Strategic Defence Review said defence needed to reconnect with society as part of a national conversation on security
Contrast MI5’s threat update with, for example, the equivalent Estonian agency’s yearbooks
2025 UK Strategic Defence Review said defence needed to reconnect with society as part of a national conversation on security
Contrast MI5’s threat update with, for example, the equivalent Estonian agency’s yearbooks
Reposted by Robin Potter
Finnish MILINT: Russia’s ability to utilise vessels sailing in the Baltic Sea region for hybrid influencing remains significant. It will likely persist in its ambitions to damage the undersea infrastructure of the Baltic Sea.
Download review here: sotilastiedustelukatsaus.fi/app/uploads/...
Download review here: sotilastiedustelukatsaus.fi/app/uploads/...
January 22, 2026 at 9:11 AM
Finnish MILINT: Russia’s ability to utilise vessels sailing in the Baltic Sea region for hybrid influencing remains significant. It will likely persist in its ambitions to damage the undersea infrastructure of the Baltic Sea.
Download review here: sotilastiedustelukatsaus.fi/app/uploads/...
Download review here: sotilastiedustelukatsaus.fi/app/uploads/...
Reposted by Robin Potter
One reason I am gloomy about Britain’s ability to rise to this geopolitical moment is the sheer parochialism and unseriousness of much of its media. The Times, which used to be a serious paper, does not have a single comment piece today on the gravest international crisis in 80 years
January 21, 2026 at 10:21 AM
One reason I am gloomy about Britain’s ability to rise to this geopolitical moment is the sheer parochialism and unseriousness of much of its media. The Times, which used to be a serious paper, does not have a single comment piece today on the gravest international crisis in 80 years
Reposted by Robin Potter
Here is the full text of Carney's speech. Very much worth reading.
paulwells.substack.com/p/the-carney...
paulwells.substack.com/p/the-carney...
The Carney doctrine
Open comment thread on the PM's Davos speech
paulwells.substack.com
January 20, 2026 at 4:19 PM
Here is the full text of Carney's speech. Very much worth reading.
paulwells.substack.com/p/the-carney...
paulwells.substack.com/p/the-carney...
Reposted by Robin Potter
Interwar British defence spending/what rearmament actually looks like.
(Table from Peden’s Arms, Economics & British Strategy).
(Table from Peden’s Arms, Economics & British Strategy).
January 18, 2026 at 5:56 PM
Interwar British defence spending/what rearmament actually looks like.
(Table from Peden’s Arms, Economics & British Strategy).
(Table from Peden’s Arms, Economics & British Strategy).
This is key point - why is UK falling over itself to gain US “security guarantees” for Ukraine?
Given threats to Greenland, what are they worth? How many treaty commitments would US breach if it seized by force or coercion?
Answer is UK and France shirking responsibilities for defence of Europe
Given threats to Greenland, what are they worth? How many treaty commitments would US breach if it seized by force or coercion?
Answer is UK and France shirking responsibilities for defence of Europe
What European leaders have been most nervous about is the US pulling back on NATO or Ukraine… but how can Europe trust the US will come to its defense if its trying to seize territory from a NATO country. They can’t. So why cave to keep a security commitment that is not real. 6/
January 18, 2026 at 11:13 AM
This is key point - why is UK falling over itself to gain US “security guarantees” for Ukraine?
Given threats to Greenland, what are they worth? How many treaty commitments would US breach if it seized by force or coercion?
Answer is UK and France shirking responsibilities for defence of Europe
Given threats to Greenland, what are they worth? How many treaty commitments would US breach if it seized by force or coercion?
Answer is UK and France shirking responsibilities for defence of Europe
In fairness to Ed, he did recognise on Wednesday that higher defence spending is likely to be required sooner rather than later
Would be good to hear specifics of Lib Dems implied proposals to recapitalise the UK Armed Forces to allow simultaneous deployments to Estonia, Ukraine, and now Greenland
Would be good to hear specifics of Lib Dems implied proposals to recapitalise the UK Armed Forces to allow simultaneous deployments to Estonia, Ukraine, and now Greenland
The UK should offer to send troops to Greenland as part of a joint NATO operation under Danish and UK command.
If Trump is serious about security, he'd agree to participate and drop his outrageous threats.
Tearing the NATO alliance apart would only play into the hands of Putin.
If Trump is serious about security, he'd agree to participate and drop his outrageous threats.
Tearing the NATO alliance apart would only play into the hands of Putin.
January 11, 2026 at 9:52 PM
In fairness to Ed, he did recognise on Wednesday that higher defence spending is likely to be required sooner rather than later
Would be good to hear specifics of Lib Dems implied proposals to recapitalise the UK Armed Forces to allow simultaneous deployments to Estonia, Ukraine, and now Greenland
Would be good to hear specifics of Lib Dems implied proposals to recapitalise the UK Armed Forces to allow simultaneous deployments to Estonia, Ukraine, and now Greenland
Reposted by Robin Potter
Reposted by Robin Potter
Disclosure: I am in favour of Britain sending peacekeeping troops to Ukraine.
Questions: let's say at a minimum we are looking at one armoured brigade on a rotation basis (5k x 4), that is a significant chunk of our medically deployable troops at last count. Will we redeploy resources?
Questions: let's say at a minimum we are looking at one armoured brigade on a rotation basis (5k x 4), that is a significant chunk of our medically deployable troops at last count. Will we redeploy resources?
January 7, 2026 at 10:06 AM
Disclosure: I am in favour of Britain sending peacekeeping troops to Ukraine.
Questions: let's say at a minimum we are looking at one armoured brigade on a rotation basis (5k x 4), that is a significant chunk of our medically deployable troops at last count. Will we redeploy resources?
Questions: let's say at a minimum we are looking at one armoured brigade on a rotation basis (5k x 4), that is a significant chunk of our medically deployable troops at last count. Will we redeploy resources?
Ed + others saying similar must also explain their implied plan (and costs) for British (European?) strategic autonomy
UK remains critically reliant on the US for defence and intelligence, and in Ukraine
No choice to acquiesce unless serious about replacing US forces in Europe tomorrow - not 2034!
UK remains critically reliant on the US for defence and intelligence, and in Ukraine
No choice to acquiesce unless serious about replacing US forces in Europe tomorrow - not 2034!
First Venezuela, next Greenland?
You don't suck up to bullies like Trump, he will just see it as a sign of weakness.
Keir Starmer needs to get on the phone to our European allies including the Danish PM, and show a united front against Trump's threats.
You don't suck up to bullies like Trump, he will just see it as a sign of weakness.
Keir Starmer needs to get on the phone to our European allies including the Danish PM, and show a united front against Trump's threats.
January 5, 2026 at 9:03 AM
Ed + others saying similar must also explain their implied plan (and costs) for British (European?) strategic autonomy
UK remains critically reliant on the US for defence and intelligence, and in Ukraine
No choice to acquiesce unless serious about replacing US forces in Europe tomorrow - not 2034!
UK remains critically reliant on the US for defence and intelligence, and in Ukraine
No choice to acquiesce unless serious about replacing US forces in Europe tomorrow - not 2034!
Reposted by Robin Potter
The FIFA Peace Prize doesn't mean what it used to
January 3, 2026 at 9:42 AM
The FIFA Peace Prize doesn't mean what it used to
Reposted by Robin Potter
The conclusion is spot on
December 28, 2025 at 3:21 PM
The conclusion is spot on
Reposted by Robin Potter
When a group of defense insiders gathered in Whitehall, the home of the British government, last month to discuss how prepared the United Kingdom and its allies were for a war they believe could come in the next few years, their verdict was pretty grim: They are not. https://cnn.it/49bBhS2
The shadow Russia casts over Europe has forced it to face the truth: the risk of war is once again real | CNN
When a group of defense insiders gathered in Whitehall, the home of the British government, last month to discuss how prepared the United Kingdom and its allies were for a war they believe could come ...
www.cnn.com
December 26, 2025 at 12:00 AM
When a group of defense insiders gathered in Whitehall, the home of the British government, last month to discuss how prepared the United Kingdom and its allies were for a war they believe could come in the next few years, their verdict was pretty grim: They are not. https://cnn.it/49bBhS2
Reposted by Robin Potter
Canceling the northern leg of HS2 was an act of insane self-harm
Industry insiders are concerned that fewer, shorter non-tilting trains are on order for HS2 — and that journey times will return to those of the 1990s
Why HS2 may lead to smaller, slower trains on west coast main line
Industry insiders are concerned that fewer, shorter non-tilting trains are on order for HS2 — and that journey times will return to those of the 1990s
www.thetimes.com
December 20, 2025 at 11:39 AM
Canceling the northern leg of HS2 was an act of insane self-harm
Reposted by Robin Potter
“Top priority”.
December 17, 2025 at 9:07 AM
“Top priority”.
More great journalism from London Centric
Really encouraging to see increasing quality local media with rise of @millmedia.bsky.social @kentcurrent.news and many others
Really encouraging to see increasing quality local media with rise of @millmedia.bsky.social @kentcurrent.news and many others
What if Thames Water aren’t always the baddies when it comes to sewage in London rivers? It’s hard to comprehend, so in April I challenged @rachel-rees.bsky.social to find a single example of a misconnection and chase it to the Thames. It became an epic quest: www.londoncentric.media/p/misconnect...
London's other sewage scandal
London Centric chases illegal sewage from a single polluting pipe on its toxic journey across the capital.
www.londoncentric.media
December 13, 2025 at 10:42 AM
More great journalism from London Centric
Really encouraging to see increasing quality local media with rise of @millmedia.bsky.social @kentcurrent.news and many others
Really encouraging to see increasing quality local media with rise of @millmedia.bsky.social @kentcurrent.news and many others
Positive news!
Though that's double the budget for grassroots sport in England... which could really do with an uplift
Though that's double the budget for grassroots sport in England... which could really do with an uplift
#BBCNews - Hundreds of youth centres planned to reach 'isolated' generation in England
www.bbc.com/news/article...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Hundreds of youth centres planned to reach 'isolated' generation
The government sets aside £500m it says is needed to revive services aimed at disconnected teens and young adults.
www.bbc.com
December 10, 2025 at 9:44 AM
Positive news!
Though that's double the budget for grassroots sport in England... which could really do with an uplift
Though that's double the budget for grassroots sport in England... which could really do with an uplift
Reposted by Robin Potter
Oslo and Copenhagen have separately, and on the same day, confirmed significant additions to their naval forces, both aimed at strengthening surveillance and protection of undersea infrastructure and strategic maritime areas in the North European waters.
breakingdefense.com/2025/12/norw...
breakingdefense.com/2025/12/norw...
Norway to buy two extra submarines, Denmark buys new surveillance ship in Nordic maritime push - Breaking Defense
Oslo and Copenhagen have separately, and on the same day, confirmed significant additions to their naval forces, both aimed at strengthening surveillance and protection of undersea infrastructure and ...
breakingdefense.com
December 9, 2025 at 10:12 AM
Oslo and Copenhagen have separately, and on the same day, confirmed significant additions to their naval forces, both aimed at strengthening surveillance and protection of undersea infrastructure and strategic maritime areas in the North European waters.
breakingdefense.com/2025/12/norw...
breakingdefense.com/2025/12/norw...
Reposted by Robin Potter
‘Autistic men in suits talking loudly and self-importantly at each other in jargon that nobody understands’
A decent summation of the defence pundit class, who delight in arcane language. As such, I've written a guide to the most annoying phrases out there. Let me know what I missed!
A decent summation of the defence pundit class, who delight in arcane language. As such, I've written a guide to the most annoying phrases out there. Let me know what I missed!
A Cynic's Guide to Defence Jargon
WMD: Words of Mass Confusion
crackingdefence.substack.com
December 6, 2025 at 12:16 PM
‘Autistic men in suits talking loudly and self-importantly at each other in jargon that nobody understands’
A decent summation of the defence pundit class, who delight in arcane language. As such, I've written a guide to the most annoying phrases out there. Let me know what I missed!
A decent summation of the defence pundit class, who delight in arcane language. As such, I've written a guide to the most annoying phrases out there. Let me know what I missed!
Reposted by Robin Potter
Way outside my area of expertise but this doesn’t paint an encouraging picture of the country’s underseas defence capability. open.substack.com/pub/robinjpo...
The Hunt for the UK's Submarines
What is the threat to Britain’s home waters, and is it equipped to deal with it?
open.substack.com
December 6, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Way outside my area of expertise but this doesn’t paint an encouraging picture of the country’s underseas defence capability. open.substack.com/pub/robinjpo...
Reposted by Robin Potter
This may in part explain why France is particularly targeted by cyberattacks and disinformation: "In few years, both France and the UK — the only European nuclear weapon states — may be simultaneously under control of populist far right parties that are at best skeptical of European solidarity."
The new US #NationalSecurityStrategy is so alarming that I spent hours today on this piece, rather than my real work.
We the Europeans, and especially the #NB8 countries in #NATO 's Eastern Flank, MUST prepare to defend our #democracy and deter #Russia by ourselves.
jmkorhonen.net/2025/12/05/w...
We the Europeans, and especially the #NB8 countries in #NATO 's Eastern Flank, MUST prepare to defend our #democracy and deter #Russia by ourselves.
jmkorhonen.net/2025/12/05/w...
When the umbrella starts to leak: Securing NATO’s Eastern Flank after the new U.S. security strategy
The new U.S. National Security Strategy shifts the United States to an unreliable ally at best – an active threat at worst. Europe and in particular NB8 countries on NATO’s Eastern Flan…
jmkorhonen.net
December 5, 2025 at 2:21 PM
This may in part explain why France is particularly targeted by cyberattacks and disinformation: "In few years, both France and the UK — the only European nuclear weapon states — may be simultaneously under control of populist far right parties that are at best skeptical of European solidarity."
Reposted by Robin Potter
🚨SPIES, DAY TWO: Counter-Terror Police were reported to a suspicious man spying on Lulworth Firing Range - flying drones and fixing metal devices in trees.
The call was made during the same time that a suspected Russian spy was near to the military base.
inews.co.uk/news/suspect...
The call was made during the same time that a suspected Russian spy was near to the military base.
inews.co.uk/news/suspect...
Suspected spy staying in Dorset shepherd's hut reported to counter-terror police
Man witnessed flying drone near Dorset military base where Ukraine's troops are trained
inews.co.uk
December 4, 2025 at 2:04 PM
🚨SPIES, DAY TWO: Counter-Terror Police were reported to a suspicious man spying on Lulworth Firing Range - flying drones and fixing metal devices in trees.
The call was made during the same time that a suspected Russian spy was near to the military base.
inews.co.uk/news/suspect...
The call was made during the same time that a suspected Russian spy was near to the military base.
inews.co.uk/news/suspect...