Matthew Palmer
@so3brocktree.bsky.social
🇬🇧 Former soldier. Accidental journalist. Fellow at the Council on Geostrategy.
Thoughts & feelings on defence and other things. Not always serious. Views my own.
Longer thoughts & feelings on substack:
https://crackingdefence.substack.com/
Thoughts & feelings on defence and other things. Not always serious. Views my own.
Longer thoughts & feelings on substack:
https://crackingdefence.substack.com/
Pinned
We are pleased to announce that @so3brocktree.bsky.social is joining us as the Sir John Moore Adjunct Fellow in Military Affairs!
🔗 Read the full announcement: bit.ly/4mtunwr
🚨 Dive straight into Matthew’s analysis on sub-threshold threats: bit.ly/3UgIE3t
🔗 Read the full announcement: bit.ly/4mtunwr
🚨 Dive straight into Matthew’s analysis on sub-threshold threats: bit.ly/3UgIE3t
Very chuffed to announce that I am now a Fellow of the @congeostrategy.bsky.social!
I'll be writing predominantly on grey-zone threats and joint operations for the Council, while continuing my work on Substack and for the RNSSC.
Please do get in contact if you are interested in any of the above!
I'll be writing predominantly on grey-zone threats and joint operations for the Council, while continuing my work on Substack and for the RNSSC.
Please do get in contact if you are interested in any of the above!
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
Populist nonsense.
Hypothetical scenario: There is a global pandemic, or a war, and GDP crashes to the floor. Oh wait, could that ever happen? 🙄
Should all MPs be fired because they fail to "deliver“ (worst word in politics)"growth"?
It is not a Pizza.
Hypothetical scenario: There is a global pandemic, or a war, and GDP crashes to the floor. Oh wait, could that ever happen? 🙄
Should all MPs be fired because they fail to "deliver“ (worst word in politics)"growth"?
It is not a Pizza.
'I’m not always convinced [growth] is the number one mission of every government department,' business secretary Peter Kyle told the FT. ft.trib.al/IhcOUcZ
January 25, 2026 at 5:48 PM
Populist nonsense.
Hypothetical scenario: There is a global pandemic, or a war, and GDP crashes to the floor. Oh wait, could that ever happen? 🙄
Should all MPs be fired because they fail to "deliver“ (worst word in politics)"growth"?
It is not a Pizza.
Hypothetical scenario: There is a global pandemic, or a war, and GDP crashes to the floor. Oh wait, could that ever happen? 🙄
Should all MPs be fired because they fail to "deliver“ (worst word in politics)"growth"?
It is not a Pizza.
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
Sorry to see Mark Tully has died - he was very much an old-school gentlemen reporter, immersed in the region he covered. His is a very 20th-century story that I suspect looks alien and in some ways troubling to modern eyes, but he was really devoted to his craft and to India
Sir Mark Tully, the BBC's 'voice of India', dies aged 90 - BBC News
Sir Mark covered some of the defining moments in India's history in a career that spanned decades.
www.bbc.com
January 25, 2026 at 3:44 PM
Sorry to see Mark Tully has died - he was very much an old-school gentlemen reporter, immersed in the region he covered. His is a very 20th-century story that I suspect looks alien and in some ways troubling to modern eyes, but he was really devoted to his craft and to India
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
notable how many of the Brexit guys are now *desperate* for Britain to be openly subordinate to a despotic foreign capital
Deleted while I was typing the post? Anyway it was this
We should strive to be America’s new Israel
Britain must find a new national strategy and reinvigorate its relationship with the economic and defence superpower
www.telegraph.co.uk
January 23, 2026 at 3:42 PM
notable how many of the Brexit guys are now *desperate* for Britain to be openly subordinate to a despotic foreign capital
'Perhaps most dispiriting for many Europeans was realising the French had been right all along.'
Europe’s five stages of grief for the transatlantic alliance
From denial to bargaining to acceptance that the world has changed
www.economist.com
January 23, 2026 at 10:23 AM
'Perhaps most dispiriting for many Europeans was realising the French had been right all along.'
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
Career firing, career firing, career stops.
Civil servant in charge of Ajax armoured vehicles sacked from role
Chris Bowbrick ‘no longer’ responsible for delivery of troubled Ministry of Defence programme
www.ft.com
January 22, 2026 at 4:04 PM
Career firing, career firing, career stops.
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
"As military, security, and government-aligned tribal forces advance in northeast Syria and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) retreat, all eyes are rightly on the extent of Islamic State (IS) prisoners escaping from detention facilities," writes Andrew Tabler.
Kurdish Collapse in Northeast Syria? Key Things to Watch
Washington Institute experts assess the immediate fallout of the Syrian government’s advance into SDF-held parts of the northeast, including mutual disinformation campaigns, implications for the Islam...
www.washingtoninstitute.org
January 22, 2026 at 4:53 PM
"As military, security, and government-aligned tribal forces advance in northeast Syria and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) retreat, all eyes are rightly on the extent of Islamic State (IS) prisoners escaping from detention facilities," writes Andrew Tabler.
Career firing, career firing, career stops.
Civil servant in charge of Ajax armoured vehicles sacked from role
Chris Bowbrick ‘no longer’ responsible for delivery of troubled Ministry of Defence programme
www.ft.com
January 22, 2026 at 4:04 PM
Career firing, career firing, career stops.
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
Looking for a group experience that’s genuinely memorable?
Sleep inside Colchester Castle with an overnight experience designed for schools, clubs, and organised children’s groups. Expect exclusive access, guided activities, and a night spent inside the Castle itself.
Sleep inside Colchester Castle with an overnight experience designed for schools, clubs, and organised children’s groups. Expect exclusive access, guided activities, and a night spent inside the Castle itself.
January 17, 2026 at 12:02 PM
Looking for a group experience that’s genuinely memorable?
Sleep inside Colchester Castle with an overnight experience designed for schools, clubs, and organised children’s groups. Expect exclusive access, guided activities, and a night spent inside the Castle itself.
Sleep inside Colchester Castle with an overnight experience designed for schools, clubs, and organised children’s groups. Expect exclusive access, guided activities, and a night spent inside the Castle itself.
Crisis over, time to stick heads back in the sand.
And we're back. The moment the danger passes, people rush to pretend everything is alright again. It isn't and will not be.
DAVOS - GERMANY'S MERZ: DESPITE FRUSTRATION, ANGER OF RECENT MONTHS, LET US NOT BE TOO QUICK TO WRITE OFF THE TRANSATLANTIC PARTNERSHIP
January 22, 2026 at 9:49 AM
Crisis over, time to stick heads back in the sand.
Unfortunately, many in the government seem to think that it does.
Writing things in a government press release do not make them reality.
January 22, 2026 at 8:05 AM
Unfortunately, many in the government seem to think that it does.
I'd like to think that this crisis would kick the UK governmemt into taking the strategic implications of a breach with the US seriously.
But because Trump, ever a figure known for his reliability, has now said 'no force', I cynically imagine they will put their heads back into the sand.
But because Trump, ever a figure known for his reliability, has now said 'no force', I cynically imagine they will put their heads back into the sand.
January 21, 2026 at 4:45 PM
I'd like to think that this crisis would kick the UK governmemt into taking the strategic implications of a breach with the US seriously.
But because Trump, ever a figure known for his reliability, has now said 'no force', I cynically imagine they will put their heads back into the sand.
But because Trump, ever a figure known for his reliability, has now said 'no force', I cynically imagine they will put their heads back into the sand.
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
I cannot tell you how absolutely infuriatingly this stuff comes across to Europeans.
When we say America is no longer a reliable ally, it goes considerably deeper than Donald Trump himself. This kind of complacent, condescending shit is a *huge* part of it.
When we say America is no longer a reliable ally, it goes considerably deeper than Donald Trump himself. This kind of complacent, condescending shit is a *huge* part of it.
Newsom: "It was remarkably boring. It was remarkably insignificant. He was never going invade Greenland. It was never real."
January 21, 2026 at 4:22 PM
I cannot tell you how absolutely infuriatingly this stuff comes across to Europeans.
When we say America is no longer a reliable ally, it goes considerably deeper than Donald Trump himself. This kind of complacent, condescending shit is a *huge* part of it.
When we say America is no longer a reliable ally, it goes considerably deeper than Donald Trump himself. This kind of complacent, condescending shit is a *huge* part of it.
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
European Parliament defers EU - Mercosur agreement to the Court of Justice.
This is not good news, but it does not "freeze" the deal. Provisional application kicks in once one or more Mercosur states have notified the EU of their agreement to do so.
www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...
This is not good news, but it does not "freeze" the deal. Provisional application kicks in once one or more Mercosur states have notified the EU of their agreement to do so.
www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...
EU-Mercosur trade deal referred to Court of Justice
After clearing major political hurdles after more than two decades, the mammoth trade deal now faces further delay pending a judicial verdict. #EuropeNews
www.euronews.com
January 21, 2026 at 12:06 PM
European Parliament defers EU - Mercosur agreement to the Court of Justice.
This is not good news, but it does not "freeze" the deal. Provisional application kicks in once one or more Mercosur states have notified the EU of their agreement to do so.
www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...
This is not good news, but it does not "freeze" the deal. Provisional application kicks in once one or more Mercosur states have notified the EU of their agreement to do so.
www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
please refer to your Davos phrasebook www.ft.com/content/ab4f...
January 21, 2026 at 2:23 PM
please refer to your Davos phrasebook www.ft.com/content/ab4f...
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
Mark Carney's speech is now only the second most acute analysis of where the world is at right now:
January 21, 2026 at 2:08 PM
Mark Carney's speech is now only the second most acute analysis of where the world is at right now:
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
Strong speech from Carney here. Well worth a read.
Wish a British politician could do the same.
Wish a British politician could do the same.
Read the full transcript of Carney’s speech to World Economic Forum - National | Globalnews.ca
Prime Minister Mark Carney gave a forceful speech in Davos, Switzerland, on the 'new world order' and how middle powers like Canada can benefit by working together.
globalnews.ca
January 20, 2026 at 10:29 PM
Strong speech from Carney here. Well worth a read.
Wish a British politician could do the same.
Wish a British politician could do the same.
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
🚨The Petition calling for by-elections to be called automatically when MPs defect to another party now has 55,000 signatures! Let’s get the 100,000 needed!
petition.parliament.uk/petitions/73...
petition.parliament.uk/petitions/73...
January 20, 2026 at 6:10 PM
🚨The Petition calling for by-elections to be called automatically when MPs defect to another party now has 55,000 signatures! Let’s get the 100,000 needed!
petition.parliament.uk/petitions/73...
petition.parliament.uk/petitions/73...
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
The whole speech is worth watching. #Carney www.youtube.com/watch?v=dE98...
Davos LIVE: Canadian PM Mark Carney speaks at World Economic Forum
YouTube video by Associated Press
www.youtube.com
January 20, 2026 at 5:33 PM
The whole speech is worth watching. #Carney www.youtube.com/watch?v=dE98...
Strong speech from Carney here. Well worth a read.
Wish a British politician could do the same.
Wish a British politician could do the same.
Read the full transcript of Carney’s speech to World Economic Forum - National | Globalnews.ca
Prime Minister Mark Carney gave a forceful speech in Davos, Switzerland, on the 'new world order' and how middle powers like Canada can benefit by working together.
globalnews.ca
January 20, 2026 at 10:29 PM
Strong speech from Carney here. Well worth a read.
Wish a British politician could do the same.
Wish a British politician could do the same.
Fuck me not good.
Kurdish-led SDF pulls out of camp for IS families during clashes in Syria
The withdrawal from al-Hol comes as Syrian government forces advance into the north-east, two days after a ceasefire agreement.
www.bbc.com
January 20, 2026 at 6:00 PM
Fuck me not good.
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
One of the Bellingcat Discord members has made Wordle, but for identifying warships
keel-fawn.vercel.app
keel-fawn.vercel.app
Keel - Daily Warship Guessing Game
A daily challenge game for naval history enthusiasts. Identify warships from silhouettes in 5 guesses or less.
keel-fawn.vercel.app
January 20, 2026 at 10:47 AM
One of the Bellingcat Discord members has made Wordle, but for identifying warships
keel-fawn.vercel.app
keel-fawn.vercel.app
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
Proud to be a founder member of Labour Friends of NATO - crucial time for progressives across the alliance to reassert solidarity and the values of the Treaty ... labourlist.org/2026/01/labo...
Labour MPs, peers and activists form Labour Friends of NATO network - LabourList
Labour MPs, peers and activists have formed a new network in support of strengthening and maintaining support for the NATO alliance.
labourlist.org
January 20, 2026 at 9:49 AM
Proud to be a founder member of Labour Friends of NATO - crucial time for progressives across the alliance to reassert solidarity and the values of the Treaty ... labourlist.org/2026/01/labo...
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
If only there had been some clue that he was like this.
January 19, 2026 at 8:18 PM
If only there had been some clue that he was like this.
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
This is fucking excellent.
@vienna_official
today we welcome his imperial highness archduke franz ferdinand to sarajevo. unity, stability, progress.
@pan_slav_posting
wild that austria thinks this is a good idea but ok
today we welcome his imperial highness archduke franz ferdinand to sarajevo. unity, stability, progress.
@pan_slav_posting
wild that austria thinks this is a good idea but ok
as a black comedy, someone should write a version of WWI leadup that has social media. Don't bother about incongruity of fitting 21st century social media tech into early 1900s. Just imagine what it would have been like
January 19, 2026 at 7:47 PM
This is fucking excellent.
This is fucking excellent.
@vienna_official
today we welcome his imperial highness archduke franz ferdinand to sarajevo. unity, stability, progress.
@pan_slav_posting
wild that austria thinks this is a good idea but ok
today we welcome his imperial highness archduke franz ferdinand to sarajevo. unity, stability, progress.
@pan_slav_posting
wild that austria thinks this is a good idea but ok
as a black comedy, someone should write a version of WWI leadup that has social media. Don't bother about incongruity of fitting 21st century social media tech into early 1900s. Just imagine what it would have been like
January 19, 2026 at 7:47 PM
This is fucking excellent.