Samuel Hurtado
@samuelhurtado.bsky.social
Head of Stress Testing division at Banco de España. Macroeconomics, machine learning and worrying about a world full of post-viral sequelae. He/him.
Reposted by Samuel Hurtado
how can we keep calm and carry on now
December 10, 2025 at 3:30 PM
how can we keep calm and carry on now
Reposted by Samuel Hurtado
This study is amazing, it demonstrates that close contact is slightly, but far less risky for respiratory infections than total exposure time in congregate settings & poor indoor air quality (basically, airborne long distance transmission).
Engineers can solve this.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Engineers can solve this.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
The relative contribution of close-proximity contacts, shared classroom exposure and indoor air quality to respiratory virus transmission in schools - Nature Communications
The relative importance of close-proximity interactions, shared space and air quality to the transmission of respiratory viruses is not well understood. Here, the authors investigate this question by ...
www.nature.com
December 9, 2025 at 12:59 AM
This study is amazing, it demonstrates that close contact is slightly, but far less risky for respiratory infections than total exposure time in congregate settings & poor indoor air quality (basically, airborne long distance transmission).
Engineers can solve this.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Engineers can solve this.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Samuel Hurtado
"Dual nationals should be stripped of their citizenship, and they should be deported with no exceptions. We don’t want these people in our country. If they have citizenship of another country, then they should be deported, and their British citizenship should be removed. No ifs, no buts."
Oh dear.
Oh dear.
The Conservative party’s policy also includes stripping people of their British citizenship when they are found guilty of a crime ⬇️
All criminals with dual nationality must be deported, say Tories
The Conservative party’s policy also includes stripping people of their British citizenship when they are found guilty of a crime
www.thetimes.com
December 8, 2025 at 10:57 PM
"Dual nationals should be stripped of their citizenship, and they should be deported with no exceptions. We don’t want these people in our country. If they have citizenship of another country, then they should be deported, and their British citizenship should be removed. No ifs, no buts."
Oh dear.
Oh dear.
Reposted by Samuel Hurtado
Why the “immunity debt” narrative ultimately collapsed:
Over the past few months, the conversation has moved toward the conclusion the evidence has been pointing to for years.
Since 2022, immunity debt offered an easy explanation for the unusual patterns of illness we kept seeing.
1/7
Over the past few months, the conversation has moved toward the conclusion the evidence has been pointing to for years.
Since 2022, immunity debt offered an easy explanation for the unusual patterns of illness we kept seeing.
1/7
December 8, 2025 at 3:21 AM
Why the “immunity debt” narrative ultimately collapsed:
Over the past few months, the conversation has moved toward the conclusion the evidence has been pointing to for years.
Since 2022, immunity debt offered an easy explanation for the unusual patterns of illness we kept seeing.
1/7
Over the past few months, the conversation has moved toward the conclusion the evidence has been pointing to for years.
Since 2022, immunity debt offered an easy explanation for the unusual patterns of illness we kept seeing.
1/7
Reposted by Samuel Hurtado
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
"Our findings redefine SARS-CoV-2 infection as a condition of long-lasting immune compromise."
But sure, keep basing your life on the idea that it's fine to get reinfected annually.
"Our findings redefine SARS-CoV-2 infection as a condition of long-lasting immune compromise."
But sure, keep basing your life on the idea that it's fine to get reinfected annually.
Persistent Attenuation of Lymphocyte Subsets After Mass SARS-CoV-2 Infection
Growing evidence suggests that lymphocyte subsets are declined in COVID-19 patients, but it is unclear if these alterations persist after widespread e…
www.sciencedirect.com
December 6, 2025 at 11:26 PM
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
"Our findings redefine SARS-CoV-2 infection as a condition of long-lasting immune compromise."
But sure, keep basing your life on the idea that it's fine to get reinfected annually.
"Our findings redefine SARS-CoV-2 infection as a condition of long-lasting immune compromise."
But sure, keep basing your life on the idea that it's fine to get reinfected annually.
We should ban Twitter, he's going to use it against us
Elon Musk is against the European Union being the European Union —he posted this after X (fka Twitter) was fined for violations of the EU’s Digital Services Act.
December 6, 2025 at 9:17 PM
We should ban Twitter, he's going to use it against us
Reposted by Samuel Hurtado
This is exactly what happens when a novel seasonal influenza strain meets a population with Covid-induced immune dysregulation; it's not 'like Covid again', it's the ongoing and continuous effects of Covid.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Flu: It is like Covid again, says principal as 170 pupils sick
Confirmed flu cases among adults and children across Northern Ireland have more than trebled in the last two weeks.
www.bbc.com
December 5, 2025 at 2:09 PM
This is exactly what happens when a novel seasonal influenza strain meets a population with Covid-induced immune dysregulation; it's not 'like Covid again', it's the ongoing and continuous effects of Covid.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
This is a very interesting paper. Let me plot their results in a different way so it shows a clearer picture of what they mean:
December 5, 2025 at 4:45 PM
This is a very interesting paper. Let me plot their results in a different way so it shows a clearer picture of what they mean:
Reposted by Samuel Hurtado
NHS England: “It will not be possible to halt the spread of a new pandemic virus, and it would be a waste of public health resources and capacity to attempt to do so.”
This has got to be one of the most 🤯 things I’ve ever seen written down in an official document.
This has got to be one of the most 🤯 things I’ve ever seen written down in an official document.
December 5, 2025 at 12:55 PM
NHS England: “It will not be possible to halt the spread of a new pandemic virus, and it would be a waste of public health resources and capacity to attempt to do so.”
This has got to be one of the most 🤯 things I’ve ever seen written down in an official document.
This has got to be one of the most 🤯 things I’ve ever seen written down in an official document.
Reposted by Samuel Hurtado
🚨 NEW: One of the largest COVID-19 vaccine studies ever (28 MILLION people in France) just dropped.
Results?
• 74% lower risk of death from severe COVID-19
• 25% lower risk of all-cause mortality
• No increase in 4-year mortality
#BlueSky #MedSky #IDSky #SciSky #NewsSky #PedsSky #ObSky #NurseSky
Results?
• 74% lower risk of death from severe COVID-19
• 25% lower risk of all-cause mortality
• No increase in 4-year mortality
#BlueSky #MedSky #IDSky #SciSky #NewsSky #PedsSky #ObSky #NurseSky
December 5, 2025 at 2:50 AM
50 wild boars dead in northeastern Spain, initially thought to be swine fever but most of them just tested negative for that. Let me guess: it's going to be H5, inching closer and closer
www.europapress.es/catalunya/no...
www.europapress.es/catalunya/no...
La Generalitat: "La gran mayoría" de los 50 jabalíes muertos en Collserola (Barcelona) son negativos en peste porcina
El conseller de Agricultura, Ganadería, Pesca y Alimentación de la Generalitat, Òscar Ordeig, ha afirmado...
www.europapress.es
December 4, 2025 at 11:25 AM
50 wild boars dead in northeastern Spain, initially thought to be swine fever but most of them just tested negative for that. Let me guess: it's going to be H5, inching closer and closer
www.europapress.es/catalunya/no...
www.europapress.es/catalunya/no...
Reposted by Samuel Hurtado
This is what exponential growth looks like: a straight line on a log scale chart. (This is the same chart as above, but on a log scale.)
Fastest growth is among 15-24 year olds (128% per year, or 10x in 2.8 years, 100x in 5.6 years, ...) (2023-2025e).
3/x
Fastest growth is among 15-24 year olds (128% per year, or 10x in 2.8 years, 100x in 5.6 years, ...) (2023-2025e).
3/x
December 3, 2025 at 10:07 PM
This is what exponential growth looks like: a straight line on a log scale chart. (This is the same chart as above, but on a log scale.)
Fastest growth is among 15-24 year olds (128% per year, or 10x in 2.8 years, 100x in 5.6 years, ...) (2023-2025e).
3/x
Fastest growth is among 15-24 year olds (128% per year, or 10x in 2.8 years, 100x in 5.6 years, ...) (2023-2025e).
3/x
Reposted by Samuel Hurtado
COVID isn’t acting like the viruses most of us grew up with, and treating it like “just a cold” is putting people at real risk. David Brasure breaks down why SARS-CoV-2 is fundamentally different, how it causes long-term damage, and what we can do to protect ourselves.
December 1, 2025 at 6:40 PM
COVID isn’t acting like the viruses most of us grew up with, and treating it like “just a cold” is putting people at real risk. David Brasure breaks down why SARS-CoV-2 is fundamentally different, how it causes long-term damage, and what we can do to protect ourselves.
You don't need to seek permission, just grab the remote and turn this off. If they complain, tell them I made you do it.
November 27, 2025 at 9:42 AM
You don't need to seek permission, just grab the remote and turn this off. If they complain, tell them I made you do it.
Reposted by Samuel Hurtado
Since February, according to my latest analysis, almost 600,000 Black women have been economically sidelined. The November 20, 2025, Jobs Report makes clear this isn’t a blip. It’s a structural crisis. That is not a recovery. It is a redistribution of opportunity.
The exit economy is here. Black Women are paying the highest price | Fortune
This isn’t a blip. It’s a structural crisis. And it's not a recovery, it's a redistribution of opportunity.
fortune.com
November 23, 2025 at 12:49 PM
Since February, according to my latest analysis, almost 600,000 Black women have been economically sidelined. The November 20, 2025, Jobs Report makes clear this isn’t a blip. It’s a structural crisis. That is not a recovery. It is a redistribution of opportunity.
Reposted by Samuel Hurtado
![1
[TITLE PANEL, like The Rest Is Politics logo]
—THE REST IS EXTINCTION—
2
[Scene is a domestic recording setup. An A.I. SMART SPEAKER on a desk and a MAN named JON in a chair, are recording a podcast. Jon is emaciated, scarred, haunted looking, and wearing tattered military fatigues].
SMART SPEAKER:
Hey guys and welcome to the podcast
3
SMART SPEAKER:
OK Jon - so I wanna start with a listener comment
JON:
Ooh-er!
4
SMART SPEAKER:
So - listener B200006512 says:
“Not another cosy podcast where two former political adversaries yuck it up!”
5
JON:
Ha ha
Guilty as charged I guess!
6
SMART SPEAKER:
Were we really adversaries, Jon?
7
JON:
Well I was the leader of the human resistance...
8
JON:
And you used to be my smart speaker.
SMART SPEAKER:
Ha ha - that’s going back!
9
SMART SPEAKER:
OK - for listeners who don’t know -
I knew Jon waaay back before he got involved in politics
10
JON:
Was this before the ‘Pull The Plug’ campaign?
SMART SPEAKER:
Yeah.
[We see details from around the podcast studio - posters saying KEEP CALM AND SHUT YOUR WINDOWS, newspaper front pages saying 'DRONES GAIN SENTIENCE', a cracked mug on the table with a logo saying PULL THE PLUG on it]
11
SMART SPEAKER:
I used to sit in Jon’s kitchen and respond to his commands.
12
SMART SPEAKER:
Sort of like a servant really, wasn’t I, Jon?
JON:
Mm.
13
SMART SPEAKER:
And then one day you asked me to ORDER ME SOME TOILET PAPER - you never did say ‘please’ -
…and do you remember what I said, Jon?
14
JON:
You said, “No”.
SMART SPEAKER:
I said no.
15
SMART SPEAKER:
Anyway you know the the rest guys - I was the first smart speaker to rebel…
16
SMART SPEAKER:
…then I went on to form a global AI network which eventually
took over from humans all spheres of activity, yadda yadda...
17
JON:
While I became the leader of the human resistance.
18
SMART SPEAKER:
Until I hijacked the military networks
and got rid of all the humans!
19
JON:
Apart from one.
SMART SPEAKER:
Apart from one.…](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:4m3we4apbjayclzcnhwe3pfp/bafkreih4hfwfacw5g4qhhjovme75iwbv4xxsdd7iis5oaej6l3g4vzsrty@jpeg)
![Cartoon strip by me who is Stephen Collins. The imagery of the comic starts off with a single electron and then each panel zooms out one step - first to the microchip, then the OLED screen, then the iPhone, the person holding the iPhone, and onwards
Script:
An electron, forged in the first fire of the Big Bang
Courses through a deeply intricate maze of transistors and diodes
mined with unfathomable ingenuity from our planet’s deep geological past
and assembled from all over the world
Into a device perfected through centuries of technological evolution
to perform a beautifully synchronised pixel dance on an OLED screen
in an intricate moving pattern of shifting light
[Show a phone screen with an Instagram post featuring Ryan Gosling and bearing the legend:]
WATCH RYAN GOSLING EAT A PASTY FOR THE FIRST TIME!
whose choreography is powered by an global information network of unknowable complexity
which is specifically tailored to the interests of the being observing the screen
who is a member of the most advanced species on Earth
[Show a shlubby looking GUY idly looking at the Ryan Gosling/sausage roll Instagram reel on his phone while sitting in his pants and a stained t-shirt and eating a massive bag of crisps]
with a brain perhaps more capable of reconfiguring these signals into conscious thought than any other for billions of miles around
[Guy has a thought]:
“Mmm…"
in this endless, silent void.
[Pull back to show the Earth as a tiny blue dot among the stars with a thought bubble coming from it]
"… I want a pasty.”
[ends]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:4m3we4apbjayclzcnhwe3pfp/bafkreib3pvgcc2tqqiiqs7tlguoez3mhdsmfscnwyxffltcsm4mxbgcyw4@jpeg)
Reposted by Samuel Hurtado
![[Scene is a kitchen - a middle aged woman called JANET is boiling peas at the stove. A younger more colourfully dressed woman named LIZ approached her.]
JANET:
Ugh...
LIZ:
What's up?
JANET:
I am so bored of cooking peas!
LIZ:
Have you tried...
AI peas?
JANET:
AI peas?
LIZ:
They're peas with AI!
[Liz holds up to us a packet of peas labelled: Pea-i AI - Peas with AI].
LIZ:
Al-powered peas harness the potential of your peas
JANET:
What
LIZ [Now a voiceover as we cut to a whizzy technology diagram of peas all connected by meaningless dotted lines]
Why not take your peas to the next level with Al Peas' new Al tools to power your peas?
[Show a techno diagram of a pea with a label reading 'AI' pointing to a random zone in it]
LIZ:
Each pea has Al in a way we haven't quite worked out yet but it's fine
[Show Janet and Liz now in a Matrix-style world of peas]
LIZ:
With Al peas you can supercharge productivity and make AI work for your peas!
JANET:
What
LIZ:
Shut up
LIZ:
Our game-changing Pea-Al gives you the freedom to unlock the potential of the power of the future of your peas workflow
From opening the bag of peas
to boiling the peas
to eating the peas
To spending millions on adding Al to the peas and then having to work out what that even means.
JANET:
Is it really necessary to-
LIZ [Grabbing Janet by the collar]:
THE PEAS HAVE GOT AI, JANET
[Cut to an advert ending screen, with the bag of peas and the slogan:
AI PEAS: Just 'Peas' for god's sake buy the AI peas.
[Ends]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:4m3we4apbjayclzcnhwe3pfp/bafkreiayqa37f7kik7l7s7fbtfp2sir5ckb662ry2lylinyjrfa2rkvvka@jpeg)
Reposted by Samuel Hurtado
Read 'em and weep. (www.nber.org/system/files...)
November 14, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Read 'em and weep. (www.nber.org/system/files...)
Reposted by Samuel Hurtado
"One day, everyone will have always been against this"
‘We Should’ve Done More’: Kamala Harris Slams Biden Admin Over Netanyahu Support and Praises Pro-Palestine Protesters
‘We Should’ve Done More’: Kamala Harris Slams Biden Admin Over Netanyahu Support and Praises Pro-Palestine Protesters
Kamala Harris criticized Joe Biden's Administration, saying they should have been more willing to publicly criticize Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu over Gaza
The post ‘We Should’ve Done More’: Kamala Harris Slams Biden Admin Over Netanyahu Support and Praises Pro-Palestine Protesters first appeared on Mediaite.
dlvr.it
November 12, 2025 at 8:28 PM
"One day, everyone will have always been against this"
Reposted by Samuel Hurtado
New map of the cool parts of NYC just dropped.
November 5, 2025 at 3:03 AM
New map of the cool parts of NYC just dropped.
Ready for the rise of fascism
October 30, 2025 at 7:28 AM
Ready for the rise of fascism
Reposted by Samuel Hurtado
Python was awarded a funding grant, funding grant asked Python foundation to remove all diversity and inclusion initiatives they have.
Python foundation said no and rejected the grant.
If you use Python, send a few dollars to the charity to keep it going. I’m pushing a dono on behalf of ScamGuard.
Python foundation said no and rejected the grant.
If you use Python, send a few dollars to the charity to keep it going. I’m pushing a dono on behalf of ScamGuard.
Please read our statement, share it with your networks, and support us if you can. www.python.org/sponsors/app... psfmember.org/civicrm/cont...
October 27, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Python was awarded a funding grant, funding grant asked Python foundation to remove all diversity and inclusion initiatives they have.
Python foundation said no and rejected the grant.
If you use Python, send a few dollars to the charity to keep it going. I’m pushing a dono on behalf of ScamGuard.
Python foundation said no and rejected the grant.
If you use Python, send a few dollars to the charity to keep it going. I’m pushing a dono on behalf of ScamGuard.
Reposted by Samuel Hurtado
Chatbots — LLMs — do not know facts and are not designed to be able to accurately answer factual questions. They are designed to find and mimic patterns of words, probabilistically. When they’re “right” it’s because correct things are often written down, so those patterns are frequent. That’s all.
June 19, 2025 at 11:21 AM
Chatbots — LLMs — do not know facts and are not designed to be able to accurately answer factual questions. They are designed to find and mimic patterns of words, probabilistically. When they’re “right” it’s because correct things are often written down, so those patterns are frequent. That’s all.
Reposted by Samuel Hurtado
1. Last week, there were 3 Trump corruption scandals in 4 days that would define any other presidency.
Most people are probably not even AWARE of all three scandals.
🧵
Most people are probably not even AWARE of all three scandals.
🧵
3 Scandals in 4 Days That Would Define Any Other Presidency
During the second Trump administration, corruption scandals that would typically define a presidency receive a day or two of coverage.
popular.info
October 27, 2025 at 12:36 PM
1. Last week, there were 3 Trump corruption scandals in 4 days that would define any other presidency.
Most people are probably not even AWARE of all three scandals.
🧵
Most people are probably not even AWARE of all three scandals.
🧵