Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 2d

Congratulations!!!

Roger Myerson @rbmyerson.bsky.social · 3d

What would Texans say if the President sent Illinois Guard troops to patrol their town? The Second Amendment affirms that people's right to keep local order by locally accountable forces is necessary to the security of a free state. This right is vital for all of us.
www.nytimes.com/live/2025/10...

Live Updates: Top Trump Officials Head to Illinois and Oregon

www.nytimes.com

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Economists for Ukraine @econ4ua.bsky.social · 3d

📊Working Paper No. 7: “What Drives Refugees’ Return After Conflict?”

Survey of 2,500+ Ukrainian refugees across 30 European countries: territorial integrity and security guarantees are key to return.

Read: econ4ua.org/wp-content/u...

Submit research: lnkd.in/gf2nQ5WC

econ4ua.org

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 7d

Terrific title!

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 7d

Look forward to reading it

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 8d

Another [diplomant] said: this would “pay for Raiffeisen’s own risk [taking]” by deciding to continue operating in Russia.

yes, Raiffeisen decided to operate in Russia, decided to continue operations in RU after the invasion of #Ukraine. Raiffeisen has to face the consequences & pay the price.

EU plans to hand Deripaska-linked assets to Raiffeisen

Some European officials worry lifting sanctions would bolster Russian retaliation against western companies

www.ft.com

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 8d

Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh makes a strong case.

A rent freeze is not the answer to New York’s housing crisis

If he is elected mayor, Zohran Mamdani should concentrate on expanding supply

www.ft.com

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The Economist @economist.com · 10d

“Stablecoins, like money-market funds, project security but can collapse under pressure,” argues Jean Tirole in a guest essay. The Nobel laureate explains why these digital tokens are riskier than promised

A Nobel laureate on why stablecoins may be nothing of the sort

Payments systems must be built on public infrastructure, not speculative tokens, writes Jean Tirole

econ.st

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 17d

$2.4 trillion projected cost (over 6 years; as of April 2022) of Russian aggression is likely a lower bound.

Professional forecasters underestimated to cost of RUS illegal annexation of #Crimea and partial occupation of the #Donbas in 2014 by a factor of 3

#UkrainianView

Economists for Ukraine @econ4ua.bsky.social · 18d

📊Working Paper No.6

New paper by @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social and Vasudevan uses macroeconomic forecasts to estimate the cumulative costs of the Russian invasion for 29 countries. Soon after the attack, projected costs hit $2.44 trillion, with rising uncertainty and spillover effects.

#EconSky

Macroeconomic Expectations in a War

Using short- and long-term macroeconomic forecasts, we estimate the cost of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine for countries in Eastern Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia. Shortly after the Russian attack, the projected cost (cumulative over six years) stood at $2.44 trillion for the region. Professional forecasters predicted a dramatic increase in macroeconomic uncertainty, significant spillover effects, some hysteresis effects as well as a changing nature of business cycles. We also use the war shock to study how professional forecasters acquire and process information. Our results point to state dependence as well as an important role of forward information in shaping macroeconomic outlook of professional forecasters.

econ4ua.org

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Economists for Ukraine @econ4ua.bsky.social · 18d

📊Working Paper No.6

New paper by @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social and Vasudevan uses macroeconomic forecasts to estimate the cumulative costs of the Russian invasion for 29 countries. Soon after the attack, projected costs hit $2.44 trillion, with rising uncertainty and spillover effects.

#EconSky

Macroeconomic Expectations in a War

Using short- and long-term macroeconomic forecasts, we estimate the cost of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine for countries in Eastern Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia. Shortly after the Russian attack, the projected cost (cumulative over six years) stood at $2.44 trillion for the region. Professional forecasters predicted a dramatic increase in macroeconomic uncertainty, significant spillover effects, some hysteresis effects as well as a changing nature of business cycles. We also use the war shock to study how professional forecasters acquire and process information. Our results point to state dependence as well as an important role of forward information in shaping macroeconomic outlook of professional forecasters.

econ4ua.org

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 22d

Should be zero

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 24d

A Russian drone hits a #university building in #Kharkiv

Senseless and barbaric daily terror

Imagine your university gets a hit like that

#Ukraine

Момент удару по освітньому закладу в Слобідському районі

YouTube video by Харківська обласна прокуратура

www.youtube.com

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 25d

Fed Inflation Credibility Threatened #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 25d

The T-shirt says it all...

But Salvini also once said he would like to have Putin as Italy’s prime minister “tomorrow”.

The Economist @economist.com · 25d

Matteo Salvini toned down his hero-worship of Vladimir Putin after joining Italy’s pro-Ukrainian government. But more recently he has been exploiting public fatigue with the war

Italy’s coalition sends mixed messages on Ukraine and Russia

Italian voters are ambivalent, so the government is too

econ.st

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The Economist @economist.com · 25d

Matteo Salvini toned down his hero-worship of Vladimir Putin after joining Italy’s pro-Ukrainian government. But more recently he has been exploiting public fatigue with the war

Italy’s coalition sends mixed messages on Ukraine and Russia

Italian voters are ambivalent, so the government is too

econ.st

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 26d

A weak response invites more provocations, more aggression, more brinkmanship

Romania condemns Russian drone violation of its airspace

Country’s defence minister calls Russia’s behaviour ‘reckless’ after second breach of Nato territory in a week

www.ft.com

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 29d

Inflation ⬆️ & Employment ⬇️ → Stagflation

A difficult situation for the Fed. Cut interest rates now → risk of rising inflation ⬆️

More here: "Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned and to What End?" with Oli Coibion @empctmacrotx.bsky.social, shorturl.at/2fmOD

#EconSky

US consumer inflation heats up; weekly jobless claims near four-year high

U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in seven months in August amid higher costs for housing and food, but a surge in first-time applications for unemployment aid last week kept the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates next Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · Sep 10

BEL Foreign Minister: don't take RUS money b/c "this would kill the hen [SWIFT] laying golden eggs"

Sure, it's more important than Russia killing Ukrainians, the greatest war in Europe since WW2, Russian war crimes, etc.

www.ft.com/content/f0cc...

Belgium to soften stance on frozen Russian assets if EU shares risk

Foreign minister warns bloc not to ‘kill the hen laying golden eggs’

www.ft.com

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · Sep 8

The chilling effects of RUS aggression are very much clear in the €zone.

Large spillover effects have implications for:
* Macro stabilization in Europe
* The cost of war in general & RUS agg specifically
* The calculus of costs&benefits of aid to #Ukraine
* mil buildup in Europe

#UkrainianView

NBER @nber.org · Sep 8

Using surveys on expected duration of the Russian-Ukraine and Middle East conflicts to examine impacts of geopolitics on consumers' beliefs about economic conditions and their own financial outlooks, from @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social, Georgarakos, Kenny, and Coibion https://www.nber.org/papers/w34195

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NBER @nber.org · Sep 8

Using surveys on expected duration of the Russian-Ukraine and Middle East conflicts to examine impacts of geopolitics on consumers' beliefs about economic conditions and their own financial outlooks, from @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social, Georgarakos, Kenny, and Coibion https://www.nber.org/papers/w34195

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · Sep 3

A new PS piece with @ilonasolohub.bsky.social and @matsmarcusson.bsky.social

2 options: 1) RUS defeat (means more sanctions & more weapons for UKR). 2) a defeat for democracy (&subdued Europe).

If 1), Europeans should sacrifice some of their welfare. If 2), they'll lose it all.

#UkrainianView

www.project-syndicate.org

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Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE) @sitestockholm.bsky.social · Sep 2

Rebuilding Ukraine is more than just bricks—it's about a rebuilding a modern, secure future. New research paper by @torbjornbecker.bsky.social, @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social, and Beatrice Weder di Mauro maps the path to a resilient, democratic Ukraine.

💡Learn more: www.hhs.se/en/about-us/...

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Economists for Ukraine @econ4ua.bsky.social · Sep 1

📊Working Paper No.3

A new paper by Olga Bondarenko utilizes partial-equilibrium models with nonstationary variables to endogenously estimate grain price trends, offering insight into how Russia’s invasion may have affected prices by reducing Ukraine’s presence in global commodity markets.

#EconSky

Shockwaves from Ukraine: Trends and Gaps in Agricultural Commodity Prices

I propose partial-equilibrium models that describe the dynamics of global wheat and corn markets. These models extend the classic competitive storage framework by incorporating nonstationary variables. They are calibrated using data from Ukraine and key importing and exporting countries. The models enable the endogenous estimation of price trends, based on the observed movements in the underlying variables. This framework provides insights into how involuntary reductions in Ukraine's global market presence, triggered by russia's invasion, could have affected trend prices.

econ4ua.org

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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · Aug 29

How Wars in Foreign Countries Influence Inflation and Expectations

That is what Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko explore in our most recent blog post "When Foreign Wars Abroad Hit Wallets at Home".

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · Aug 28

A great honor!

Bordeaux Sciences Economiques / Bordeaux School of Economics @bsebordeaux.bsky.social · Aug 28

📣 Final keynote speaker Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social, UC Berkeley, now presenting: Expectations Matter: The New Causal Macroeconomics of Surveys and Experiments
📍At EEA 2025 Congress @eeanews.bsky.social @bsebordeaux.bsky.social @univbordeaux.bsky.social
#EEA2025

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Bordeaux Sciences Economiques / Bordeaux School of Economics @bsebordeaux.bsky.social · Aug 28

📣 Final keynote speaker Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social, UC Berkeley, now presenting: Expectations Matter: The New Causal Macroeconomics of Surveys and Experiments
📍At EEA 2025 Congress @eeanews.bsky.social @bsebordeaux.bsky.social @univbordeaux.bsky.social
#EEA2025

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Tatyana Deryugina @tderyugina.bsky.social · Aug 27

Over 125 economists signed the open letter calling on the President, Congress, and the American public to uphold the principles of Federal Reserve independence and not remove Lisa Cook without due process.

There's still time to sign! And please share.

#EconSky

docs.google.com/document/d/1...

Open letter

Click here to add your signature. An Open Letter from Economists in Support of Governor Lisa Cook and Federal Reserve Independence To the President, Members of Congress, and the American public: We wr...

docs.google.com

12 550 1.5K

Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · Aug 15

Trump welcomes a war criminal on US soil

#UkrainianView

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · Aug 9

EU leaders:
... vital interests include ... robust&credible sec guarantees that enable UKR to defend its sovereignty&territorial integrity. #Ukraine has the freedom of choice over its own destiny. Meaningful negotiations can only take place in the context of a ceasefire/reduction of hostilities.

Statement by President Macron, Prime Minister Meloni, Chancellor Merz, Prime Minister Tusk, Prime Minister Starmer, President von der Leyen and President Stubb on Peace for Ukraine ahead of President ...

We welcome President Trump\'s work to stop the killing in Ukraine, end the Russian Federation\'s war of aggression, and achieve just and lasting peace and security for Ukraine.\nWe are convinced that ...

ec.europa.eu

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Russia-Ukraine Daily News @rvps2001.bsky.social · Aug 6

📼 Journalists from Radio Liberty have released previously unseen surveillance footage showing Russian soldiers killing 70-year-old Volodymyr Rubailo on Yablunska Street in Kyiv Oblast’s town of Bucha on 4 March 2022.

www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/202...

#Ukraine #Russia #RussianWarCrimes

Radio Liberty release footage of Russian looting and execution of civilian in Bucha – video

Journalists from Radio Liberty have released previously unseen surveillance footage showing Russian soldiers killing 70-year-old Volodymyr Rubailo on Yablunska Street in Kyiv Oblast’s town of Bucha on...

www.pravda.com.ua

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