@aberistcambe.bsky.social
Reposted
Wellesley College’s Stacie Goddard and Georgetown University’s Abraham Newman call this emerging order “neo-royalism,” and describe it as a global system dominated by rivalries between a small group of leaders and allied “hyper-elites,” all looking to gain wealth or status.
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What’s Really Driving Trump’s Moves in Venezuela and Greenland
A new political theory suggests that what motivates this president is something far older than great power rivalry.
www.politico.com
January 9, 2026 at 6:41 PM
Wellesley College’s Stacie Goddard and Georgetown University’s Abraham Newman call this emerging order “neo-royalism,” and describe it as a global system dominated by rivalries between a small group of leaders and allied “hyper-elites,” all looking to gain wealth or status.
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Reposted
🔴 BREAKING - EU greenlights Mercosur trade deal, von der Leyen 'looks forward' to signing 'soon'
EU chief von der Leyen 'looks forward' to signing 'historic' Mercosur deal
EU chief Ursula von der Leyen hailed the green light given to the bloc's trade deal with South American bloc Mercosur on Friday, saying she looked forward to signing the accord "soon". A majority of…
f24.my
January 9, 2026 at 5:48 PM
🔴 BREAKING - EU greenlights Mercosur trade deal, von der Leyen 'looks forward' to signing 'soon'
Reposted
Young Europeans will make Europe more united!
For them, a European Army is more attractive than national armies or even NATO.
That is what today’s politicians need to have in mind!
⬇️
www.politico.eu/article/unit...
For them, a European Army is more attractive than national armies or even NATO.
That is what today’s politicians need to have in mind!
⬇️
www.politico.eu/article/unit...
January 6, 2026 at 6:03 PM
Young Europeans will make Europe more united!
For them, a European Army is more attractive than national armies or even NATO.
That is what today’s politicians need to have in mind!
⬇️
www.politico.eu/article/unit...
For them, a European Army is more attractive than national armies or even NATO.
That is what today’s politicians need to have in mind!
⬇️
www.politico.eu/article/unit...
Reposted
Maybe the greatest example of the bizarro world in which we now live is that European states are maintaining the dangerous fiction that the US would fight for them, when the more likely use of US military force would be to kick Europe out of Greenland.
January 6, 2026 at 11:26 AM
Maybe the greatest example of the bizarro world in which we now live is that European states are maintaining the dangerous fiction that the US would fight for them, when the more likely use of US military force would be to kick Europe out of Greenland.
Reposted
Commentary: Trump's security strategy sees European democracies as a bigger threat to US interests than Russian imperialism.
Europe and Ukraine are left to deal with Russia on their own. But this requires more political will than Europeans are used to. euromaidanpress.com/2026/01/08/f...
Europe and Ukraine are left to deal with Russia on their own. But this requires more political will than Europeans are used to. euromaidanpress.com/2026/01/08/f...
Former US commander: Trump “has ceded Europe to Russia.”
Trump administration's foreign policy based on "spheres of influence" and right-wing politics leaves Europe and Ukraine to feind for themselves.
euromaidanpress.com
January 7, 2026 at 11:40 PM
Commentary: Trump's security strategy sees European democracies as a bigger threat to US interests than Russian imperialism.
Europe and Ukraine are left to deal with Russia on their own. But this requires more political will than Europeans are used to. euromaidanpress.com/2026/01/08/f...
Europe and Ukraine are left to deal with Russia on their own. But this requires more political will than Europeans are used to. euromaidanpress.com/2026/01/08/f...
Reposted
Italy says EU-Mercosur deal offers 'enormous benefits'
Italy says EU-Mercosur deal offers 'enormous benefits'
Italy on Wednesday said that an EU trade deal with South American bloc Mercosur could bring "enormous benefits", despite calling for a postponement of plans to seal the accord in December. On Friday, the bloc's member states are expected to vote in favour of the text that will create the world's largest free-trade area.
f24.my
January 7, 2026 at 8:33 PM
Italy says EU-Mercosur deal offers 'enormous benefits'
Reposted
Let's be real: Trump is not going to war with Russia over Estonia, Finland or Romania. If Putin attacks, we're on our own
January 7, 2026 at 10:24 AM
Let's be real: Trump is not going to war with Russia over Estonia, Finland or Romania. If Putin attacks, we're on our own
Reposted
📉 "The intervening years have not been happy. Estimates of the resultant loss to British GDP range from an irksome 4% to a dismal 8%."
🇬🇧 🇪🇺 "For both Britain and the EU, it is past time for a bolder approach."
https://econ.st/4suYW8Q
🇬🇧 🇪🇺 "For both Britain and the EU, it is past time for a bolder approach."
https://econ.st/4suYW8Q
Britain and the EU should be bolder in getting closer
How post-Brexit Britain should approach relations with its nearest and biggest market
www.economist.com
January 7, 2026 at 1:10 PM
📉 "The intervening years have not been happy. Estimates of the resultant loss to British GDP range from an irksome 4% to a dismal 8%."
🇬🇧 🇪🇺 "For both Britain and the EU, it is past time for a bolder approach."
https://econ.st/4suYW8Q
🇬🇧 🇪🇺 "For both Britain and the EU, it is past time for a bolder approach."
https://econ.st/4suYW8Q
Reposted
I re-posted this earlier today. Having now read the Goddard and Newman article, I am struck by its insight and recommend it enthusiastically and unreservedly.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
January 6, 2026 at 5:27 AM
I re-posted this earlier today. Having now read the Goddard and Newman article, I am struck by its insight and recommend it enthusiastically and unreservedly.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Reposted
Zelenskyy has appointed Canada's Chrystia Freeland as Ukraine's Special Advisor on Economic Development.
This places one of the most experienced Western economic & geopolitical operators directly into Ukraine’s reconstruction and long term development strategy. #cdnpoli 🧵
This places one of the most experienced Western economic & geopolitical operators directly into Ukraine’s reconstruction and long term development strategy. #cdnpoli 🧵
January 5, 2026 at 7:42 PM
Zelenskyy has appointed Canada's Chrystia Freeland as Ukraine's Special Advisor on Economic Development.
This places one of the most experienced Western economic & geopolitical operators directly into Ukraine’s reconstruction and long term development strategy. #cdnpoli 🧵
This places one of the most experienced Western economic & geopolitical operators directly into Ukraine’s reconstruction and long term development strategy. #cdnpoli 🧵
Reposted
Following the fall of Maduro, many Russian war bloggers are starting to realize in what bad shape Russia is. The events in Venezuela are unanimously considered a strategic Russian defeat, and they admit that Russia is currently too weak to help any Russian allies.
January 5, 2026 at 8:13 AM
Following the fall of Maduro, many Russian war bloggers are starting to realize in what bad shape Russia is. The events in Venezuela are unanimously considered a strategic Russian defeat, and they admit that Russia is currently too weak to help any Russian allies.
Reposted
It's New Year, so time to look back and forward. These are 10 things I think we need to recognise in 2026. It’s a response to what I think are profoundly damaging mistaken assumptions I’ve heard and read from practitioners, journalists, and analysts in 2025. Warning: very long🧵
January 1, 2026 at 4:55 PM
It's New Year, so time to look back and forward. These are 10 things I think we need to recognise in 2026. It’s a response to what I think are profoundly damaging mistaken assumptions I’ve heard and read from practitioners, journalists, and analysts in 2025. Warning: very long🧵
Reposted
A country condemned to spend the next 30 years trying to claw back what it always had....
www.theguardian.com/politics/liv...
www.theguardian.com/politics/liv...
More than 75% of Labour, Lib Dem and Green voters think PM should open talks on joining EU customs union – as it happened
YouGov poll for the Times suggests even 40% of Conservative voters support such a move
www.theguardian.com
December 22, 2025 at 6:41 PM
A country condemned to spend the next 30 years trying to claw back what it always had....
www.theguardian.com/politics/liv...
www.theguardian.com/politics/liv...
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On the last day of 2025, I tried to sum up in this free piece the big stories of the year. Boil it down, however, and one story surpasses all others, be that for the Russo-Ukraine war or global geopolitics overall.
2025 was the year when the USA changed sides
open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
2025 was the year when the USA changed sides
open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
2025 In Review: The Year The US Changed Sides
Amongst many stories, one stands out
open.substack.com
December 31, 2025 at 9:41 AM
On the last day of 2025, I tried to sum up in this free piece the big stories of the year. Boil it down, however, and one story surpasses all others, be that for the Russo-Ukraine war or global geopolitics overall.
2025 was the year when the USA changed sides
open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
2025 was the year when the USA changed sides
open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Reposted
Many European political leaders frame higher defense spending as a choice between security and social welfare. In reality, sustaining Europe’s social model will require greater investment in defense, argues Nouriel Roubini. bit.ly/45aP4ar
The Real Existential Threat Facing Europe
Nouriel Roubini warns that the continent faces a future of relative economic backwardness as global competition intensifies.
bit.ly
December 30, 2025 at 3:38 PM
Many European political leaders frame higher defense spending as a choice between security and social welfare. In reality, sustaining Europe’s social model will require greater investment in defense, argues Nouriel Roubini. bit.ly/45aP4ar
Reposted
Hi All, Its the annual column of ritual humiliation, where I dissect, with quotes, the biggest mistakes I made in the past year. There are some great ones where I was wrong. This year, to make the column more helpful, I have even included a lessons learned analysis. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Annual Review 2025: What I Got Wrong
Complete with quotes!
open.substack.com
December 26, 2025 at 8:43 AM
Hi All, Its the annual column of ritual humiliation, where I dissect, with quotes, the biggest mistakes I made in the past year. There are some great ones where I was wrong. This year, to make the column more helpful, I have even included a lessons learned analysis. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Reposted
Russian oil and gas revenues relative to GDP...
December 3, 2025 at 10:03 AM
Russian oil and gas revenues relative to GDP...
Reposted
And here is part 2 where we discuss where things stand now. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Phillips O’Brien Ukraine 2
A recording from Phillips P. OBrien and Timothy Snyder's live video
open.substack.com
December 19, 2025 at 6:15 PM
And here is part 2 where we discuss where things stand now. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Reposted
Yes, it doesn’t matter if you have cards if you don’t know how to play.
time.com/7341064/trum...
time.com/7341064/trum...
Why Trump Should Call Putin’s Bluff Now
Russia's "economy is disintegrating, and their military prowess is inferior to that of Ukraine."
time.com
December 19, 2025 at 6:23 PM
Yes, it doesn’t matter if you have cards if you don’t know how to play.
time.com/7341064/trum...
time.com/7341064/trum...
Reposted
Everything we can see tells us that Putin is never going to admit that the West is not, in fact, an existential threat to Russia, because he personally depends on the idea. And of all the parts of the West that are seen as an existential threat to Russia, the UK is hated most of all.
December 18, 2025 at 8:33 PM
Everything we can see tells us that Putin is never going to admit that the West is not, in fact, an existential threat to Russia, because he personally depends on the idea. And of all the parts of the West that are seen as an existential threat to Russia, the UK is hated most of all.
Reposted
The need to destroy the Western "existential threat" to Russia is one of the key ideological pillars justifying Putin's domestic repression, the distortion of the economy, and the deaths of thousands of Russian soldiers. Putin's power now depends on the idea of war with the West.
December 18, 2025 at 8:33 PM
The need to destroy the Western "existential threat" to Russia is one of the key ideological pillars justifying Putin's domestic repression, the distortion of the economy, and the deaths of thousands of Russian soldiers. Putin's power now depends on the idea of war with the West.
Reposted
It proves many things:
Russian energy was never cheap, neither politically nor economically.
Russian energy was always unreliable.
Russia always needed Europe more than the other way around.
Russian energy was never cheap, neither politically nor economically.
Russian energy was always unreliable.
Russia always needed Europe more than the other way around.
December 17, 2025 at 5:48 PM
It proves many things:
Russian energy was never cheap, neither politically nor economically.
Russian energy was always unreliable.
Russia always needed Europe more than the other way around.
Russian energy was never cheap, neither politically nor economically.
Russian energy was always unreliable.
Russia always needed Europe more than the other way around.
Reposted
Natural gas prices in Europe have all but returned to normal since Russia's full scale war in Ukraine. In fact, the only reason for the spike in 2021 and 2022 has been Russia's energy war against Europe, which started even before the full scale invasion of Ukraine. The numbers clearly say that.
December 17, 2025 at 5:48 PM
Natural gas prices in Europe have all but returned to normal since Russia's full scale war in Ukraine. In fact, the only reason for the spike in 2021 and 2022 has been Russia's energy war against Europe, which started even before the full scale invasion of Ukraine. The numbers clearly say that.