Daniel Wincott
@danielwincott.bsky.social
1.3K followers 180 following 220 posts
Academic @walesgovernance.bsky.social (Wales Governance Centre) and Cardiff University’s School of Law and Politics.
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Reposted by Daniel Wincott
bymyong.bsky.social
I‘m giving a public talk at UCL on Thurs 16 Oct. The title is “Bureaucracy and distrust: the civil service in the constitution” looking at the civil service’s constitutional foundations, and how it might respond to a populist govt. @sirJJkc.bsky.social will chair!
www.ucl.ac.uk/laws/events/...
Hybrid | CLP - Bureaucracy and Distrust: The Civil Service in the Constitution
This lecture will be delivered by Dr Ben Yong, as part of the Current Legal Problems Lecture Series 2025-26
www.ucl.ac.uk
Reposted by Daniel Wincott
paulnightingale.bsky.social
Which reminds me of Nightingale's first law of science policy "Fund more history"
Reposted by Daniel Wincott
iconsgbie.bsky.social
📢ICON GBIE, TRICON, QUB Webinar:

Familiarity, Culture & Expertise: The Future of Referendums in Ireland & the UK

Oct 17th 10:00-13:00 Online

To register follow the link below:
events.teams.microsoft.com/event/0d55a0...

1/3 👇
Reposted by Daniel Wincott
mimosacymru.bsky.social
Among other posts in an excellent thread, this is one that resonates here in Wales, with our national election on the horizon next May.

Labour in Wales has been talking about voters going to Reform for a long time, whereas pollsters have been highlighting that any Labour-Ref switchers are long gone
benansell.bsky.social
So who should Labour target if they want their 2024 vote back? Simple let's look at where 2024 Lab voters are now. Here are the averages and by occupation. People who have gone to Reform or Greens are miles away. But people who have gone to LDs or Don't Know, esp Low PMC, are very close. 17/n
danielwincott.bsky.social
Or were once left leaning. It seems to me that some (but only some) UK university leaders come to believe what they used to critique. They almost to treat their own earlier academic work as a mirror-image playbook.
aphclarkson.bsky.social
The quip that the worst neo-liberal managers are personally left-leaning but believe to survive they have to act like the caricature of a fat cat capitalist they internalised as students comes to mind with Starmer sometimes when he tries to project cultural conservatism.
danielwincott.bsky.social
Unscramble these eggs
premnsikka.bsky.social
Quarter of UK university physics departments at risk of closing.

Consequence of policies of successive govts, real cut in university income, hard to recruit foreign students.

Science subjects cut as they require heavy investment. Skills shortages will deepen.
Quarter of UK university physics departments at risk of closing, survey finds
Four out of five making staff cuts as physicists say findings are ‘great concern’ for UK’s leadership in important areas
www.theguardian.com
danielwincott.bsky.social
Great. Let’s keep power as centralised as possible. That’ll work well if Farage become PM.
zoecrowther.bsky.social
NEW: Former Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane tells @politicshome.bsky.social he thinks the government is getting “cold feet” about strengthening regional devolution

“Two Reform mayors play into that. A Labour mayor on manoeuvres plays into that too."
Former Bank Of England Economist Says Government Getting 'Cold Feet' Over English Devolution
Former Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane said he is concerned that the government is getting “cold feet” about strengthening regional de...
www.politicshome.com
danielwincott.bsky.social
The UK & EU becoming capable of full self defence + role wrt Ukraine encompasses timing questions. Equally, when, in the US domestic politics spiral, does UK government work to sustain the ‘special relationship’ fail a basic moral sniff test, if it hasn’t already? What should the UKG do (then)?
timing.at
danielwincott.bsky.social
A ‘sovereign’ Parliament with 2 elected chambers looks different. Before GE 2024 Lords reform became a 2nd term issue for Labour.
I wasn’t wholly convinced by the Brown commission from a devo perspective. Now maybe a missed opportunity for several reasons? labour.org.uk/wp-content/u...
labour.org.uk
Reposted by Daniel Wincott
jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social
Labour has been the largest party in Wales since 1922 (the longest success streak in any democracy).

That looks set to change in the next election, unless something incredibly dramatic happens.

This change is seismic on its own, but Labour should take heed for what it means for Westminster too.
jaclarner.bsky.social
Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵
danielwincott.bsky.social
No wonder Farage quit worrying and learned to love FPTP
jaclarner.bsky.social
The Westminster implications are staggering too. On these numbers, Labour would likely be reduced to just 3 Welsh seats, Plaid would win around 6, and Reform could take most of the remaining 23 seats out of Wales's 32 constituencies 🧵 End
Reposted by Daniel Wincott
jaclarner.bsky.social
Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵
Reposted by Daniel Wincott
a-b-evans.bsky.social
To put the 14% in perspective it would not just be Labour's worst performance in Wales since it supplanted the Liberals in 1922, but its lowest vote share at any national election in Wales since 1906 (when it only contested a handful of seats due to the Gladstone-MacDonald pact)

#senedd #devolution
danielwincott.bsky.social
Oof.
Welsh Labour hopes for benefits flowing from partnership with a Labour government have, it seems, been dashed.
Is anyone in the UK party thinking about the medium term consequences of Labour losing Wales?
Reposted by Daniel Wincott
jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social
What Happened to Labour's 2024 Voters?

Using the recent wave of the @britishelectionstudy.com I look at people who voted Labour in 2024:
- How many are still with the party?
- How many have left?
- Why might that be?

TLDR: they've left because of economic issues/concerns, probably.
What Happened to Labour's 2024 Voters?
The who, what, when, how and huh of why Labour has lost so much support in such a short period of time
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
danielwincott.bsky.social
The UK also stands out for having cut Welfare Benefit Generosity. Turning WBG to a single number begs lots of issues (equally, tho GDP), but Scruggs+ Ramalho Tafoya have a decent index I used a few years ago. I think the issues it gets to are still often misunderstood. ukandeu.ac.uk/how-generous...
How generous is British welfare? - UK in a changing Europe
Professor Dan Wincott compares the generosity of welfare entitlements in the UK with other high-income countries.
ukandeu.ac.uk
Reposted by Daniel Wincott
hetanshah.bsky.social
‘I was there. I kept the receipts. I remember how normalized the sexual exploitation of teenage girls and even tweens by adult men was, how it showed up in movies, in the tales of rock stars and “baby groupies”’

Powerful piece from @rebeccasolnit.bsky.social
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Shocked by Epstein’s birthday book? That culture was everywhere before feminism | Rebecca Solnit
Feminism exposed the ubiquity of child abuse, rape, sexual harassment and domestic violence – and helped fight that culture
www.theguardian.com
Reposted by Daniel Wincott
sundersays.bsky.social
Its correct to call Robinson’s rally larger than any far right rally in history.

3/4 of people on it would say it was not far right, and would deny racism

About 1/4 on it may be happy to own racism

The ostensibly moderate/peaceful frame is one reason it can go wider than Mosley or Britain First
Reposted by Daniel Wincott
flipchartrick.bsky.social
I’ve looked into this now.

I can’t find an example of a far right march or rally attracting much more than 10,000.

A far right march on this scale is completely new for the UK.
danielwincott.bsky.social
A moving tribute.
colinmurray.bsky.social
The news of Conor Gearty's death has just been announced and I'm not coping. He was a mentor and the pole star in my constitutional thinking. He was also a great friend and fantastic fun to be around. I'm heartbroken for Aoife and the children.
Reposted by Daniel Wincott
walesgovernance.bsky.social
Siaradodd @nyedavies.bsky.social â Nick Servini ar BBC Radio Wales y bore 'ma i drafod cystadleuaeth Dirprwy Arweinydd y Blaid Llafur:

Dr Nye Davies on Radio Wales this morning, discussing the competition for the role of UK Labour's Deputy Leader and its connection with a famous Welsh MP: