@darcon1974.bsky.social
Reposted
this is the simple answer to people who keep saying NATO expansion matters. Sure, it matters because it presented an obstacle to Russian imperial ambitions. Putin didn't invade because he hated NATO expansion, he hated NATO expansion because he wanted to invade
December 26, 2025 at 8:14 PM
this is the simple answer to people who keep saying NATO expansion matters. Sure, it matters because it presented an obstacle to Russian imperial ambitions. Putin didn't invade because he hated NATO expansion, he hated NATO expansion because he wanted to invade
Reposted
A lot of ink has been spilled trying to divine Moscow’s motivations to invade 🇺🇦, commit innumerable war crimes, and burn the remaining bridges with the West.
Why? God knows, the largest landmass on our planet, russia, doesn’t need any more territory..
My two cents
open.substack.com/pub/chakhoya...
Why? God knows, the largest landmass on our planet, russia, doesn’t need any more territory..
My two cents
open.substack.com/pub/chakhoya...
The bloodsoaked lexicon of Russian imperialism
Seven phrases that encapsulate Moscow's violent obsession with conquest
open.substack.com
December 27, 2025 at 11:10 AM
A lot of ink has been spilled trying to divine Moscow’s motivations to invade 🇺🇦, commit innumerable war crimes, and burn the remaining bridges with the West.
Why? God knows, the largest landmass on our planet, russia, doesn’t need any more territory..
My two cents
open.substack.com/pub/chakhoya...
Why? God knows, the largest landmass on our planet, russia, doesn’t need any more territory..
My two cents
open.substack.com/pub/chakhoya...
Reposted
At 30,000 tons each, the Trump battleships will be the same size as the Pennsylvania class battleships that were sunk at Pearl Harbor. However at a cost of $15 billion each, they will be 1000 times more expensive. Each one will be sinkable by a drone torpedo costing at most $100,000.
Pennsylvania-class battleship - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
December 23, 2025 at 5:04 AM
At 30,000 tons each, the Trump battleships will be the same size as the Pennsylvania class battleships that were sunk at Pearl Harbor. However at a cost of $15 billion each, they will be 1000 times more expensive. Each one will be sinkable by a drone torpedo costing at most $100,000.
Reposted
Facing an economic spiral and depleted conventional forces, Vladimir Putin is entering a window of maximum danger. We must prepare not for a resurgent Russia but for a desperate one: 2026 will be the year of hybrid escalation.
www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
Russia is Losing – Time for Putin's 2026 Hybrid Escalation
2025 offered the most generous potential off-ramp for Vladimir Putin. He rejected it.
www.rusi.org
December 21, 2025 at 6:02 AM
Facing an economic spiral and depleted conventional forces, Vladimir Putin is entering a window of maximum danger. We must prepare not for a resurgent Russia but for a desperate one: 2026 will be the year of hybrid escalation.
www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
Reposted
“Shaped by his KGB culture and witness to Soviet demise, any peace deal that can be perceived other than complete ‘victory’ – is no longer a policy option available…It would delegitimise the entire regime. Therefore, escalation becomes not a choice but a necessity.”
www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
Russia is Losing – Time for Putin's 2026 Hybrid Escalation
2025 offered the most generous potential off-ramp for Vladimir Putin. He rejected it.
www.rusi.org
December 20, 2025 at 1:18 PM
“Shaped by his KGB culture and witness to Soviet demise, any peace deal that can be perceived other than complete ‘victory’ – is no longer a policy option available…It would delegitimise the entire regime. Therefore, escalation becomes not a choice but a necessity.”
www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
Reposted
Just released this piece. The VA story released yesterday about the inner workings of the Trump administration is the most important yet. For Ukraine and it supporters it confirms that Putin is planning to take all of Ukraine (and Trump is therefore helping him).
open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Trump Knows
The Scary Meaning of the Most Important Story of the Trump Administration So Far
open.substack.com
December 17, 2025 at 5:56 AM
Just released this piece. The VA story released yesterday about the inner workings of the Trump administration is the most important yet. For Ukraine and it supporters it confirms that Putin is planning to take all of Ukraine (and Trump is therefore helping him).
open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Reposted
Trump knows Russia is planning to conquer all of Ukraine.
Just released this piece. The VA story released yesterday about the inner workings of the Trump administration is the most important yet. For Ukraine and it supporters it confirms that Putin is planning to take all of Ukraine (and Trump is therefore helping him).
open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Trump Knows
The Scary Meaning of the Most Important Story of the Trump Administration So Far
open.substack.com
December 17, 2025 at 6:06 AM
Trump knows Russia is planning to conquer all of Ukraine.
Reposted
On April 11, 2021, state TV pundits explained why Russia's full-fledged invasion of Ukraine was inevitable, but they had to prevent potential cyber retaliation by the US. I've written about it at the time and was criticized by some for taking it seriously.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Jtn...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Jtn...
April 11, 2021 — state TV pundits explain why Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine is inevitable
YouTube video by Russian Media Monitor
www.youtube.com
December 16, 2025 at 4:03 PM
On April 11, 2021, state TV pundits explained why Russia's full-fledged invasion of Ukraine was inevitable, but they had to prevent potential cyber retaliation by the US. I've written about it at the time and was criticized by some for taking it seriously.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Jtn...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Jtn...
Reposted
Great article by @johnsipher.bsky.social .
People like to call Trump erratic or mercurial. However when it comes to Putin and Russia…he is eerily consistent. tomorrowsaffairs.com/a-tempting-m...
People like to call Trump erratic or mercurial. However when it comes to Putin and Russia…he is eerily consistent. tomorrowsaffairs.com/a-tempting-m...
A tempting mark—why is Trump behaving in ways that benefit Moscow?
Moscow appears to have used these vulnerabilities to influence Donald Trump, and, unfortunately, has done so with considerable success
tomorrowsaffairs.com
December 16, 2025 at 5:52 PM
Great article by @johnsipher.bsky.social .
People like to call Trump erratic or mercurial. However when it comes to Putin and Russia…he is eerily consistent. tomorrowsaffairs.com/a-tempting-m...
People like to call Trump erratic or mercurial. However when it comes to Putin and Russia…he is eerily consistent. tomorrowsaffairs.com/a-tempting-m...
Reposted
Hardly a surprise. Any ‘agreement’ with Trump is just the start of attempts to extort more, as his various tariffs on Canada & Mexico have shown. In that respect, his approach to negotiations is similar to Putin’s. Deals are essentially worthless.
The US has suspended the technology deal with the UK that was signed during Donald Trump's state visit
www.ft.com/content/afd4...
www.ft.com/content/afd4...
US suspends technology deal with the UK
Washington pushes for concessions from London on the broader trade relationship
www.ft.com
December 16, 2025 at 6:59 AM
Hardly a surprise. Any ‘agreement’ with Trump is just the start of attempts to extort more, as his various tariffs on Canada & Mexico have shown. In that respect, his approach to negotiations is similar to Putin’s. Deals are essentially worthless.
Reposted
Just sent out this free piece. Its being said that what Trump is doing with Putin is similar to what FDR did with Stalin at Yalta. Nothing could be further from the truth. Trump could easily weaken a dictatorship and strengthen a democracy if he wanted. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
What The US Is Doing To Ukraine Is Far Worse Than Yalta
How the great GOP bugbear of the past puts Trump to shame.
open.substack.com
December 16, 2025 at 8:20 AM
Just sent out this free piece. Its being said that what Trump is doing with Putin is similar to what FDR did with Stalin at Yalta. Nothing could be further from the truth. Trump could easily weaken a dictatorship and strengthen a democracy if he wanted. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Reposted
One of the reasons for the sliding oil price is supposedly a potential peace in Ukraine. It appears the entire world has gone mad. Is it really only a few of us here, we who have followed Russia for a long time, who understand there will be no peace with Russia?
December 16, 2025 at 8:40 AM
One of the reasons for the sliding oil price is supposedly a potential peace in Ukraine. It appears the entire world has gone mad. Is it really only a few of us here, we who have followed Russia for a long time, who understand there will be no peace with Russia?
Reposted
Nailed it. 👇
Just sent out this free piece. Its being said that what Trump is doing with Putin is similar to what FDR did with Stalin at Yalta. Nothing could be further from the truth. Trump could easily weaken a dictatorship and strengthen a democracy if he wanted. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
What The US Is Doing To Ukraine Is Far Worse Than Yalta
How the great GOP bugbear of the past puts Trump to shame.
open.substack.com
December 16, 2025 at 8:59 AM
Nailed it. 👇
Reposted
Really good piece.
You can point to Hamas/Hizbollah/Iran's total inability to effectively deploy their supposed arsenal of drones as good evidence for this. The (admittedly superior) Shahed drones that Russia is using to bombard Ukraine were limp against Israel.
You can point to Hamas/Hizbollah/Iran's total inability to effectively deploy their supposed arsenal of drones as good evidence for this. The (admittedly superior) Shahed drones that Russia is using to bombard Ukraine were limp against Israel.
Small drones are playing such a big role in the Russia-Ukraine war not because they've proven superior, but because no one has air superiority, air defense is weak, and attempts at complex combined arms have broken down.
US-China wouldn't look like that.
Very good, timely piece by Justin Bronk.
US-China wouldn't look like that.
Very good, timely piece by Justin Bronk.
America’s Drone Delusion
Why the lessons of Ukraine don’t apply to a conflict with China.
www.foreignaffairs.com
December 15, 2025 at 5:23 PM
Really good piece.
You can point to Hamas/Hizbollah/Iran's total inability to effectively deploy their supposed arsenal of drones as good evidence for this. The (admittedly superior) Shahed drones that Russia is using to bombard Ukraine were limp against Israel.
You can point to Hamas/Hizbollah/Iran's total inability to effectively deploy their supposed arsenal of drones as good evidence for this. The (admittedly superior) Shahed drones that Russia is using to bombard Ukraine were limp against Israel.
Reposted
Finnish President Alexander Stubb: “Russia is the number one threat for Europe and actually the Western world.”
December 14, 2025 at 9:27 PM
Finnish President Alexander Stubb: “Russia is the number one threat for Europe and actually the Western world.”
Reposted
"Then in just the last week, the Ukrainians executed a military operation that pushed the Russians back about twice the distance as it had taken the Russians to advance in more than four months. It's interesting that this story has not yet appeared in the New York Times.'
December 14, 2025 at 11:11 AM
"Then in just the last week, the Ukrainians executed a military operation that pushed the Russians back about twice the distance as it had taken the Russians to advance in more than four months. It's interesting that this story has not yet appeared in the New York Times.'
Reposted
This new RUSI report also includes an important chapter on the effectiveness of Russian air defenses, which is a lot higher than the popular online discourse can lead one to believe.
www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
December 13, 2025 at 12:32 PM
This new RUSI report also includes an important chapter on the effectiveness of Russian air defenses, which is a lot higher than the popular online discourse can lead one to believe.
www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
Reposted
By locking in Russian assets for good, the EU is finally playing hardball
In an audacious move, the EU has decided to indefinitely immobilise the Russian sovereign assets, pushing back against external pressure to release the funds before Moscow agrees to pay war reparations to Ukraine.
In an audacious move, the EU has decided to indefinitely immobilise the Russian sovereign assets, pushing back against external pressure to release the funds before Moscow agrees to pay war reparations to Ukraine.
By locking in Russian assets for good, the EU finally plays hardball
In an audacious move, the EU has decided to indefinitely immobilise the Russian sovereign assets, pushing back against external pressure to release the funds before Moscow agrees to pay war reparations to Ukraine.
www.euronews.com
December 13, 2025 at 2:43 PM
By locking in Russian assets for good, the EU is finally playing hardball
In an audacious move, the EU has decided to indefinitely immobilise the Russian sovereign assets, pushing back against external pressure to release the funds before Moscow agrees to pay war reparations to Ukraine.
In an audacious move, the EU has decided to indefinitely immobilise the Russian sovereign assets, pushing back against external pressure to release the funds before Moscow agrees to pay war reparations to Ukraine.
Reposted
Why negotiations most likely will not bring peace in Ukraine.
I explain why this war will be decided on the battlefield.
libmod.de/en/almost-fo...
I explain why this war will be decided on the battlefield.
libmod.de/en/almost-fo...
Almost four years of Russia's full-scale invasion: A historical look into the future
Almost four years after the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, historian Jan Claas Behrends (ZZF/European University Viadrina) takes a historically informed look back—and warns against illusions a...
libmod.de
December 12, 2025 at 5:43 PM
Why negotiations most likely will not bring peace in Ukraine.
I explain why this war will be decided on the battlefield.
libmod.de/en/almost-fo...
I explain why this war will be decided on the battlefield.
libmod.de/en/almost-fo...
Reposted
Let this be the article you read first today. Everything is spot on. One of the most clear-eyed articles I have read about the war.
Why negotiations most likely will not bring peace in Ukraine.
I explain why this war will be decided on the battlefield.
libmod.de/en/almost-fo...
I explain why this war will be decided on the battlefield.
libmod.de/en/almost-fo...
Almost four years of Russia's full-scale invasion: A historical look into the future
Almost four years after the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, historian Jan Claas Behrends (ZZF/European University Viadrina) takes a historically informed look back—and warns against illusions a...
libmod.de
December 13, 2025 at 4:28 AM
Let this be the article you read first today. Everything is spot on. One of the most clear-eyed articles I have read about the war.
Reposted
The EU has approved an indefinite freeze of ~€210bn in Russian sovereign assets. That ends the 6-month renewal cycle which Hungary used to try to block it.
The freeze lasts until Russia ends the war and pays reparations.
The freeze lasts until Russia ends the war and pays reparations.
December 12, 2025 at 7:19 PM
The EU has approved an indefinite freeze of ~€210bn in Russian sovereign assets. That ends the 6-month renewal cycle which Hungary used to try to block it.
The freeze lasts until Russia ends the war and pays reparations.
The freeze lasts until Russia ends the war and pays reparations.
Reposted
"Seven German journalism students tracked Russian-crewed freighters lurking off the Dutch and German coast—and connected them to drone swarms over military bases."
Well done by the students. How come the authorities didn't figure this out? Or did they just not tell us about it?
Well done by the students. How come the authorities didn't figure this out? Or did they just not tell us about it?
They Droned Back
Young journalists expose Russian-linked vessels circling off the Dutch and German coast
www.digitaldigging.org
December 12, 2025 at 5:54 AM
"Seven German journalism students tracked Russian-crewed freighters lurking off the Dutch and German coast—and connected them to drone swarms over military bases."
Well done by the students. How come the authorities didn't figure this out? Or did they just not tell us about it?
Well done by the students. How come the authorities didn't figure this out? Or did they just not tell us about it?
Reposted
Trump is dozing off in meetings. He’s wandering during ceremonies. His rants are more unhinged, his temper shorter, and he’s suddenly getting MRIs the White House can’t explain. Something is wrong — and they’re hiding it
open.substack.com/pub/adamkinz...
open.substack.com/pub/adamkinz...
The Alarming Signs of a President in Decline
Trump is showing confusion, fatigue, erratic behavior, and unexplained medical tests — and the White House won’t level with the public about what’s happening.
open.substack.com
December 11, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Trump is dozing off in meetings. He’s wandering during ceremonies. His rants are more unhinged, his temper shorter, and he’s suddenly getting MRIs the White House can’t explain. Something is wrong — and they’re hiding it
open.substack.com/pub/adamkinz...
open.substack.com/pub/adamkinz...
Reposted
NATO Sec. Gen. Mark Rutte in Berlin:
“We are Russia’s next target.. We have to shift to a wartime mindset.. Ukraine must have what it needs to defend itself..”
“Russia is losing 1200 soldiers a day. If Putin is prepared to sacrifice ordinary Russians in this way, what is he prepared to do to us?”
“We are Russia’s next target.. We have to shift to a wartime mindset.. Ukraine must have what it needs to defend itself..”
“Russia is losing 1200 soldiers a day. If Putin is prepared to sacrifice ordinary Russians in this way, what is he prepared to do to us?”
December 11, 2025 at 1:29 PM
NATO Sec. Gen. Mark Rutte in Berlin:
“We are Russia’s next target.. We have to shift to a wartime mindset.. Ukraine must have what it needs to defend itself..”
“Russia is losing 1200 soldiers a day. If Putin is prepared to sacrifice ordinary Russians in this way, what is he prepared to do to us?”
“We are Russia’s next target.. We have to shift to a wartime mindset.. Ukraine must have what it needs to defend itself..”
“Russia is losing 1200 soldiers a day. If Putin is prepared to sacrifice ordinary Russians in this way, what is he prepared to do to us?”
Reposted
Much of the West’s misreading of #russia: its nature, its motives, its war, comes down to ignorance, sometimes inadvertent, oftentimes chosen.
Here goes my best attempt to fill the knowledge gap, in collaborate with @claireberlinski.bsky.social
claireberlinski.substack.com/p/the-gift-o...
Here goes my best attempt to fill the knowledge gap, in collaborate with @claireberlinski.bsky.social
claireberlinski.substack.com/p/the-gift-o...
The Gift of Defeat
What Russia needs and America won't give
claireberlinski.substack.com
December 11, 2025 at 10:11 AM
Much of the West’s misreading of #russia: its nature, its motives, its war, comes down to ignorance, sometimes inadvertent, oftentimes chosen.
Here goes my best attempt to fill the knowledge gap, in collaborate with @claireberlinski.bsky.social
claireberlinski.substack.com/p/the-gift-o...
Here goes my best attempt to fill the knowledge gap, in collaborate with @claireberlinski.bsky.social
claireberlinski.substack.com/p/the-gift-o...