Jake Puddle
@jakepuddle.bsky.social
Director of Research at British Future
Interested in migration, cohesion and countering the far-right
Aspen Institute Fellow
Interested in migration, cohesion and countering the far-right
Aspen Institute Fellow
Pinned
Jake Puddle
@jakepuddle.bsky.social
· Jul 15
🔔OUT TODAY🔔
Our new report presents UK-wide evidence to the Independent Commission on Community & Cohesion
It finds a troubling powder keg of low political trust, polarisation, online vulnerability and cost of living concerns that risk sparking into further unrest if left unaddressed
Our new report presents UK-wide evidence to the Independent Commission on Community & Cohesion
It finds a troubling powder keg of low political trust, polarisation, online vulnerability and cost of living concerns that risk sparking into further unrest if left unaddressed
Reposted by Jake Puddle
An update on this: today's More in Common has no change in Reform score. That fits with this trend as the five most recent More in Common results for Reform have been:
33 (oldest)
31
31
30
30 (newest)
33 (oldest)
31
31
30
30 (newest)
Change in Reform rating between latest and previous poll from each pollster in recent polls:
YouGov -2
Opinium -1
Find Out Now -1
Focaldata -2
More in Common -1
Lord Ashcroft -3
Freshwater -3
JL Partners -1
Ipsos -1
This is starting to look like a trend...
YouGov -2
Opinium -1
Find Out Now -1
Focaldata -2
More in Common -1
Lord Ashcroft -3
Freshwater -3
JL Partners -1
Ipsos -1
This is starting to look like a trend...
November 26, 2025 at 10:21 AM
An update on this: today's More in Common has no change in Reform score. That fits with this trend as the five most recent More in Common results for Reform have been:
33 (oldest)
31
31
30
30 (newest)
33 (oldest)
31
31
30
30 (newest)
Reposted by Jake Puddle
The government’s decision to halve the time limit for refugees to leave Home Office accommodation is driving people into homelessness and exploitation, according to migrant rights campaigners and homelessness charities
By me, for @theleaduk.bsky.social national.thelead.uk/p/new-asylum...
By me, for @theleaduk.bsky.social national.thelead.uk/p/new-asylum...
New asylum policies making homeless refugees “targets for the far right”
Labour’s abrupt return to the 28-day move-on period is pushing vulnerable people into rough sleeping and exposing them to fraud and abuse.
national.thelead.uk
November 25, 2025 at 1:20 PM
The government’s decision to halve the time limit for refugees to leave Home Office accommodation is driving people into homelessness and exploitation, according to migrant rights campaigners and homelessness charities
By me, for @theleaduk.bsky.social national.thelead.uk/p/new-asylum...
By me, for @theleaduk.bsky.social national.thelead.uk/p/new-asylum...
Reposted by Jake Puddle
“By rushing through these draconian immigration reforms now – at precisely the same moment the Government proclaims it is investing to end homelessness – we know the very opposite will happen: more people at risk of destitution and even sleeping on the streets." @josephinewy.bsky.social
The government’s decision to halve the time limit for refugees to leave Home Office accommodation is driving people into homelessness and exploitation, according to migrant rights campaigners and homelessness charities
By me, for @theleaduk.bsky.social national.thelead.uk/p/new-asylum...
By me, for @theleaduk.bsky.social national.thelead.uk/p/new-asylum...
New asylum policies making homeless refugees “targets for the far right”
Labour’s abrupt return to the 28-day move-on period is pushing vulnerable people into rough sleeping and exposing them to fraud and abuse.
national.thelead.uk
November 25, 2025 at 4:57 PM
“By rushing through these draconian immigration reforms now – at precisely the same moment the Government proclaims it is investing to end homelessness – we know the very opposite will happen: more people at risk of destitution and even sleeping on the streets." @josephinewy.bsky.social
Reposted by Jake Puddle
My first session this morning on HL Justice and Home Affairs Cttee, discussing migration and pathways to settlement with @sundersays.bsky.social and Prof Alan Manning of LSE: www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/...
Parliamentlive.tv
Justice and Home Affairs Committee
www.parliamentlive.tv
November 25, 2025 at 2:15 PM
My first session this morning on HL Justice and Home Affairs Cttee, discussing migration and pathways to settlement with @sundersays.bsky.social and Prof Alan Manning of LSE: www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/...
Reposted by Jake Puddle
I wrote for @indyvoices.bsky.social about whether competing to win the "least welcoming nation" league is either desirable or possible for Britain
www.independent.co.uk/voices/uk-as...
www.independent.co.uk/voices/uk-as...
Do we really want to win the ‘League of Least Welcoming Nations’?
The home secretary is indulging in a lurid deportation fantasy with her new Denmark-style asylum policy. And, writes Sunder Katwala, her numbers don’t even add up…
www.independent.co.uk
November 22, 2025 at 10:48 PM
I wrote for @indyvoices.bsky.social about whether competing to win the "least welcoming nation" league is either desirable or possible for Britain
www.independent.co.uk/voices/uk-as...
www.independent.co.uk/voices/uk-as...
Reposted by Jake Puddle
I am surprised about Facebook (relatively high) and Whatsapp (relatively low), but this might be US-specific.
I use YouTube, Instagram (passively), Whatsapp, Bluesky.
bsky.app/profile/conr...
I use YouTube, Instagram (passively), Whatsapp, Bluesky.
bsky.app/profile/conr...
UPDATE: Americans who use
YouTube 84%
Facebook 71%
Instagram 50%
TikTok 37%
WhatsApp 32%
Reddit 26%
Snapchat 25%
X (Twitter) 21%
Threads 8%
Bluesky 4%
Truth Social 3%
Full Pew Research Center report: https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2025/11/20/americans-social-media-use-2025/
YouTube 84%
Facebook 71%
Instagram 50%
TikTok 37%
WhatsApp 32%
Reddit 26%
Snapchat 25%
X (Twitter) 21%
Threads 8%
Bluesky 4%
Truth Social 3%
Full Pew Research Center report: https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2025/11/20/americans-social-media-use-2025/
November 24, 2025 at 10:38 AM
I am surprised about Facebook (relatively high) and Whatsapp (relatively low), but this might be US-specific.
I use YouTube, Instagram (passively), Whatsapp, Bluesky.
bsky.app/profile/conr...
I use YouTube, Instagram (passively), Whatsapp, Bluesky.
bsky.app/profile/conr...
Reposted by Jake Puddle
Mahmood/government should say explain *objective* of increasing time to settlement for 15 years for care workers who arrived 2022-24
Is it
A) to get them to leave? Why?
B) to save money? Then why not just restrict benefits?
C) to "encourage integration"? How? Will do opposite.
Is it
A) to get them to leave? Why?
B) to save money? Then why not just restrict benefits?
C) to "encourage integration"? How? Will do opposite.
15 years for people in medium skilled jobs and care workers too. I believe this goes down to 10 years if they earn over £50,270. Someone in a high skilled job earning over that qualifies in 5 years.
November 21, 2025 at 10:04 AM
Mahmood/government should say explain *objective* of increasing time to settlement for 15 years for care workers who arrived 2022-24
Is it
A) to get them to leave? Why?
B) to save money? Then why not just restrict benefits?
C) to "encourage integration"? How? Will do opposite.
Is it
A) to get them to leave? Why?
B) to save money? Then why not just restrict benefits?
C) to "encourage integration"? How? Will do opposite.
Reposted by Jake Puddle
It’s just nuts. Even if you accept Labour’s policy diagnosis, we “lost control” of our borders, and concern about immigration was rising long before the alarming rise of racism. The big change on racism has been we traded an anti-racist government for one that is at best Trappist on it.
I find insane that shabana mahmood is going out there and saying "white british people cannot be asked to accept too many of us outsiders, it is not in their nature, and their pushback against all of us is to be placated". What???
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood made more explicit her argument that when ethnic minorities face racism, "we have no choice but to ask: what is the cause of our division"
Her answer is the level of net migration, 2019-23 causes racism. (She on Monday said it was caused by the scale of asylum)
Her answer is the level of net migration, 2019-23 causes racism. (She on Monday said it was caused by the scale of asylum)
November 21, 2025 at 1:45 PM
It’s just nuts. Even if you accept Labour’s policy diagnosis, we “lost control” of our borders, and concern about immigration was rising long before the alarming rise of racism. The big change on racism has been we traded an anti-racist government for one that is at best Trappist on it.
Reposted by Jake Puddle
In a future leadership contest Labour MPs + members will need to value candidates ability at attentional politics. The way it'll be covered will put more emphasis on broadcast ability and what the lobby think/deems acceptable. Not that these are totally unimportant but certainly less so than before.
November 21, 2025 at 2:00 PM
In a future leadership contest Labour MPs + members will need to value candidates ability at attentional politics. The way it'll be covered will put more emphasis on broadcast ability and what the lobby think/deems acceptable. Not that these are totally unimportant but certainly less so than before.
Reposted by Jake Puddle
Labour MP and former minister @jimmcmahon.co.uk responds to my story about Labour MPs calling for a minister-led review of the government’s use of X
November 21, 2025 at 12:15 PM
Labour MP and former minister @jimmcmahon.co.uk responds to my story about Labour MPs calling for a minister-led review of the government’s use of X
Reposted by Jake Puddle
This is one of the changes in the UK media landscape that should be more remarked on: the fact that being a very open, proud, outright racist is no longer a bar to being a pundit on some TV stations (in this case GBN and Talk TV).
Lucy White advocates a ban on "non-natives" from office, citing Rishi Sunak and Priti Patel.
So she is referring to UK-born ethnic minority citizens. (Her argument would apply equally to Shabana Mahmood, Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman and others)
Lucy White continues to be a GB News regular
So she is referring to UK-born ethnic minority citizens. (Her argument would apply equally to Shabana Mahmood, Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman and others)
Lucy White continues to be a GB News regular
November 21, 2025 at 11:12 AM
This is one of the changes in the UK media landscape that should be more remarked on: the fact that being a very open, proud, outright racist is no longer a bar to being a pundit on some TV stations (in this case GBN and Talk TV).
Reposted by Jake Puddle
Antisemitism Trust report dramatic spike in antisemitic on X. Some racist speech is extreme but lawful, CCDH says X defending unlawful antisemitic abuse it is obliged to remove. MPs want Ofcom to assess if X is breaching its legal duties. (Spoiler alert: it is)
www.politicshome.com/news/article...
www.politicshome.com/news/article...
Cross-Party MPs Demand Ofcom Investigation Into Antisemitism On X
Exclusive: A cross-party group of MPs and peers has demanded that Ofcom take action against a surge in antisemitic posts and calls for violence aga...
www.politicshome.com
November 20, 2025 at 9:02 PM
Antisemitism Trust report dramatic spike in antisemitic on X. Some racist speech is extreme but lawful, CCDH says X defending unlawful antisemitic abuse it is obliged to remove. MPs want Ofcom to assess if X is breaching its legal duties. (Spoiler alert: it is)
www.politicshome.com/news/article...
www.politicshome.com/news/article...
Reposted by Jake Puddle
"Nigel Farage has been paid over £330,000 by GB News in the last year alone.
Farage is deep in the pockets of a company that aims to replace the BBC".
Punchy video from @eddavey.libdems.org.uk.
Farage is deep in the pockets of a company that aims to replace the BBC".
Punchy video from @eddavey.libdems.org.uk.
Donald Trump is gunning for the BBC, and Farage is cheering him on. Want to know why? Follow the money…
November 19, 2025 at 6:14 PM
"Nigel Farage has been paid over £330,000 by GB News in the last year alone.
Farage is deep in the pockets of a company that aims to replace the BBC".
Punchy video from @eddavey.libdems.org.uk.
Farage is deep in the pockets of a company that aims to replace the BBC".
Punchy video from @eddavey.libdems.org.uk.
Reposted by Jake Puddle
Reposted by Jake Puddle
Nice and clear explainer from the ONS on the changes made to their migration methods today:
blog.ons.gov.uk/2025/11/18/u...
blog.ons.gov.uk/2025/11/18/u...
Updating our methods to improve EU and British migration statistics
For the first time, UK long-term international migration statistics no longer rely on survey data but are, instead, produced using administrative data. While this is a landmark moment and gives us an
blog.ons.gov.uk
November 18, 2025 at 10:42 AM
Nice and clear explainer from the ONS on the changes made to their migration methods today:
blog.ons.gov.uk/2025/11/18/u...
blog.ons.gov.uk/2025/11/18/u...
Reposted by Jake Puddle
I'm reading through the white paper or whatever it is. RESTORING ORDER AND CONTROL: A statement on the government’s asylum and returns policy www.gov.uk/government/p...
Asylum and returns policy statement
This policy statement sets out significant reforms to the UK’s asylum and returns policy.
www.gov.uk
November 17, 2025 at 3:48 PM
I'm reading through the white paper or whatever it is. RESTORING ORDER AND CONTROL: A statement on the government’s asylum and returns policy www.gov.uk/government/p...
Reposted by Jake Puddle
The share of the public who say they feel proud of their country has dipped below a majority, falling from 56% to 46% in the last five years.
National pride is now lowest among 16-24s at 29% (down 18 points) and ethnic minorities at 38% (down 16 points)
➡️ www.kcl.ac.uk/news/uks-sen...
National pride is now lowest among 16-24s at 29% (down 18 points) and ethnic minorities at 38% (down 16 points)
➡️ www.kcl.ac.uk/news/uks-sen...
November 17, 2025 at 11:19 AM
The share of the public who say they feel proud of their country has dipped below a majority, falling from 56% to 46% in the last five years.
National pride is now lowest among 16-24s at 29% (down 18 points) and ethnic minorities at 38% (down 16 points)
➡️ www.kcl.ac.uk/news/uks-sen...
National pride is now lowest among 16-24s at 29% (down 18 points) and ethnic minorities at 38% (down 16 points)
➡️ www.kcl.ac.uk/news/uks-sen...
Reposted by Jake Puddle
Channel 4 news: will a tougher stance fix the UK's asylum system? I think the question is what would work to gain control, maintain compassion & rebuild public confidence
www.channel4.com/news/debate-...
www.channel4.com/news/debate-...
Debate: will a tougher stance fix the UK’s asylum system?
We're joined by Jo White, the Labour MP for Bassetlaw and the chair of the Red Wall Caucus of Labour MPs, who's also on the Home Affairs Select Committee - and also Sunder Katwala, the head of British...
www.channel4.com
November 16, 2025 at 9:22 PM
Channel 4 news: will a tougher stance fix the UK's asylum system? I think the question is what would work to gain control, maintain compassion & rebuild public confidence
www.channel4.com/news/debate-...
www.channel4.com/news/debate-...
Reposted by Jake Puddle
The Prime Minister said in September that we are at a fork in the road. These asylum proposals suggest we have taken the wrong turning.
The idea that recognised refugees need to be deported is wrong.
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
The idea that recognised refugees need to be deported is wrong.
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
Asylum system in UK ‘out of control’ and dividing country, home secretary says
Shabana Mahmood to unveil new proposals modelled on Denmark’s controversial system
www.theguardian.com
November 16, 2025 at 5:45 PM
The Prime Minister said in September that we are at a fork in the road. These asylum proposals suggest we have taken the wrong turning.
The idea that recognised refugees need to be deported is wrong.
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
The idea that recognised refugees need to be deported is wrong.
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
Progressives urgently needs a more united effort to regulate + detoxify social media. Days like today really highlight the tilted playing field we are working on trying to tug the Overton window on platforms that will only amplify the extremes
Not everyone is unhappy about the Government's descent into anti-refugee politics
November 16, 2025 at 7:02 PM
Progressives urgently needs a more united effort to regulate + detoxify social media. Days like today really highlight the tilted playing field we are working on trying to tug the Overton window on platforms that will only amplify the extremes
Asylum seekers who can work are also then expected to make significant payments for their hotel accomm, usually far greater than most can afford on minimum wage. The ability to work is really only viable for those who have family/friends to house them
Asylum seekers with the right to work account for less than 8pc of those in accommodation, unless I’ve misunderstood something (8,500 currently have work visas, according to the Home Office)
The government plans to remove technical statutory basis for asylum seeker support.
Govt says it want asylum seekers to work if they are allowed to. Their policy is asylum seekers can't work (but some can after 12 months).
Govt don't plan to let asylum seekers work once case is 6 months old
Govt says it want asylum seekers to work if they are allowed to. Their policy is asylum seekers can't work (but some can after 12 months).
Govt don't plan to let asylum seekers work once case is 6 months old
November 16, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Asylum seekers who can work are also then expected to make significant payments for their hotel accomm, usually far greater than most can afford on minimum wage. The ability to work is really only viable for those who have family/friends to house them
Reposted by Jake Puddle
In the end, we no longer operate in a marketplace of ideas.
Platforms run a marketplace of feeling, where attention, not evidence, decides what rises. Emotional charge beats truth every time. Politics adapts to that logic, producing hollow performances instead of functional decisions.
Platforms run a marketplace of feeling, where attention, not evidence, decides what rises. Emotional charge beats truth every time. Politics adapts to that logic, producing hollow performances instead of functional decisions.
November 16, 2025 at 1:21 PM
In the end, we no longer operate in a marketplace of ideas.
Platforms run a marketplace of feeling, where attention, not evidence, decides what rises. Emotional charge beats truth every time. Politics adapts to that logic, producing hollow performances instead of functional decisions.
Platforms run a marketplace of feeling, where attention, not evidence, decides what rises. Emotional charge beats truth every time. Politics adapts to that logic, producing hollow performances instead of functional decisions.
Reposted by Jake Puddle
Governments and voters are both reacting to algorithm-shaped “public opinion,” not grounded priorities. Immigration feels urgent because platforms amplify fear, pulling parties into hollow performances of toughness. The far right reads that drift as confirmation it’s winning.
Not everyone is unhappy about the Government's descent into anti-refugee politics
November 16, 2025 at 1:06 PM
Governments and voters are both reacting to algorithm-shaped “public opinion,” not grounded priorities. Immigration feels urgent because platforms amplify fear, pulling parties into hollow performances of toughness. The far right reads that drift as confirmation it’s winning.
Reposted by Jake Puddle
If you want more significant numbers of asylum seekers to work and find their own housing, rather than rely on statutory asylum provision, then you presumably need to…allow them to work? What am I missing
November 16, 2025 at 12:20 PM
If you want more significant numbers of asylum seekers to work and find their own housing, rather than rely on statutory asylum provision, then you presumably need to…allow them to work? What am I missing
Reposted by Jake Puddle
Labour MPs should join the Lib Dems... “It’s economically and culturally illiterate,” one said. “Are we really going to take the wedding rings of victims of trafficking, tell Ukrainians they can never put down roots?”
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
No 10 tells Labour MPs it expects support for tough new asylum policies
Some backbenchers already opposing planned immigration crackdown seen as ‘economically and culturally illiterate’
www.theguardian.com
November 15, 2025 at 3:26 PM
Labour MPs should join the Lib Dems... “It’s economically and culturally illiterate,” one said. “Are we really going to take the wedding rings of victims of trafficking, tell Ukrainians they can never put down roots?”
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...