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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 12d

My high school AP US history teacher taught us that John Adams was the most important person in the founding of our democracy because he lost to the opposition party and went home.

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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 16d

You can always learn a great deal about today when reading @trevondlogan.bsky.social write about our history.

Trevon Logan @trevondlogan.bsky.social · 16d

A short 🧵 so everyone can learn that political violence is nothing new in America.

Of the 1,331 Black officials who served during Reconstruction, 158 (10.4%) were subjected to political violence. 1/7

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Sep 6

The Trump admin backing off the ban of noncompetes is gratuitously bad policy. When I was Director of @hamiltonproject.org we did lots of work highlighting the bad effects on workers, wages, and the economy that comes with limiting workers ability to switch jobs.This will hurt people and the economy

Reuters @reuters.com · Sep 6

Trump administration drops defense of ban on employee 'noncompete' agreements reut.rs/4njejxQ

Trump administration drops defense of ban on employee 'noncompete' agreements

President Donald Trump's administration abandoned on Friday the U.S. government's legal defense of a rule adopted under former President Joe Biden that had banned agreements commonly signed by workers not to join rivals of their employers or launch competing businesses.

reut.rs

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · Sep 2

#Manufacturing purchasing managers are severely depressed:

❗️"Tariffs wreak havoc"
❗️"Too much uncertainty"
❗️"Unstable" policy
❗️"Worse than Great Recession"
❗️"Layoffs" 15%
❗️"It's survival"
❗️"Made in USA more difficult due to #tariffs"

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Tatyana Deryugina @tderyugina.bsky.social · Aug 27

The letter is ready, thanks to all those who helped out! Starting to gather signature now, please consider signing (link at top of letter) & spread the word.

docs.google.com/document/d/1...

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Reposted by Jay Shambaugh

Sarah O'Connor @sarahoconnorft.ft.com · Aug 27

Yellen not at all pulling her punches in this op-ed for the FT www.ft.com/content/d2ea...

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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Aug 26

Good summary of Trump’s statement he fired Fed governor Lisa Cook. He cannot fire her without cause and it does not appear there is cause. Undermining the Fed will not generate an immediate crisis, but undermining the Fed and the rule of law is bad for the economy and country over time.

Paul Krugman @pkrugman.bsky.social · Aug 26

I wrote about the manifestly illegal attempt to fire Lisa Cook 1/

paulkrugman.substack.com/p/in-the-mat...

In the Matter of Lisa Cook

Trump’s attempt to fire a Fed governor is illegal. Now we find out whether that matters.

paulkrugman.substack.com

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Reposted by Jay Shambaugh

Paul Krugman @pkrugman.bsky.social · Aug 26

I wrote about the manifestly illegal attempt to fire Lisa Cook 1/

paulkrugman.substack.com/p/in-the-mat...

In the Matter of Lisa Cook

Trump’s attempt to fire a Fed governor is illegal. Now we find out whether that matters.

paulkrugman.substack.com

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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · Aug 26

This action by Lisa Cook is courageous, principled, and deserves broad support.

Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · Aug 26

Just received this statement from Lisa Cook:
"President Trump purported to fire me 'for cause' when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so. I will not resign. I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy as I have been doing since 2022."

Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · Aug 26

President Trump said he is firing Lisa Cook, a Federal Reserve governor, "effective immediately." It's his most direct assault yet on Fed independence -- and a step that it is far from clear he can legally take.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/25/u... #EconSky

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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Aug 23

This is something the Administration would know if they read Lisa Cook’s work instead of attacking her. Arguably, her research has never been more relevant to the Fed’s mission. One has to assume innovation and biz formation by immigrants is falling right now.

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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Aug 23

Important article by @bencasselman.bsky.social Tariffs and cuts to key programs get attention and will do immediate damage. But Trump is also undermining long run growth. I’d add to Ben’s list: Trump is making parts of the population feel less secure which reduces innovation and entrepreneurship.

Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · Aug 22

The U.S. has enjoyed a decades-long economic advantage thanks to its reputation as the safest place in the world for investors to put their money and for entrepreneurs to build their businesses.

President Trump may be chipping away at that advantage.

www.nytimes.com/2025/08/22/b... #EconSky

Trump’s Attacks on Institutions Threaten a Bulwark of Economic Strength

www.nytimes.com

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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Aug 14

This will get lost in the shuffle of so many damaging high profile actions by this Administration. But this is just gratuitously bad. The government should support competition and try to help make sure consumers, workers, and small biz don’t get squeezed by huge firms’ market power.

Martin Gaynor @martingaynor.bsky.social · Aug 14

This is a step backwards. A whole of government approach to competition is crucial. This administration could have replaced the EO with one of their own. They didn’t - which accentuates concerns that they’re not committed to supporting and promoting competition. www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...

Revocation of Executive Order on Competition

By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, it is hereby ordered: Section 1.

www.whitehouse.gov

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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Aug 14

@jasonfurman.bsky.social is appropriately blunt and brutal in his assessment of Trump’s firing of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer and his atrocious nomination of EJ Antoni. Given the chaos Trump has unleashed on the economy, it’s important to have data to track it. This step undermines the data.

Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · Aug 14

I expand on why I--like just about every economist and wonk I know--believes that EJ Antoni is a terrible pick for BLS Commission.

Shout outs to Alan Cole, Stan Veuger and if more space would have called out dozens more. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/13/o...

Opinion | Why Economists Are Worried About Trump’s B.L.S. Changes

Most of us just accept that government economic data is the best possible estimate of the economy. That could change, and that would be bad for all of us.

www.nytimes.com

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Reposted by Jay Shambaugh

Erica Groshen @ericagroshen.bsky.social · Aug 13

Ending publication of monthly Current Economic Statistics (CES) would violate the will of Congress as expressed federal law.

It would also violate OMB's Statistical Policy Directive 3, which governs all Principal Federal Economic Indicators, including the CES.
www.bls.gov/bls/statisti...

www.bls.gov

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Reposted by Jay Shambaugh

Douglas Irwin @douglasirwin.bsky.social · Aug 11

The US Constitution forbids export taxes but I guess this payment isn't a "tax" but a payout....🤔 www.nytimes.com/2025/08/10/t...

U.S. Government to Take Cut of Nvidia and AMD A.I. Chip Sales to China

www.nytimes.com

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Reposted by Jay Shambaugh

Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · Aug 1

This is awful. Reliable economic data is a key strength of the US economy.

When Argentina and Greece faked economic data it contributed to major crises.

I don't think Trump will be able to fake the data given the procedures. But there is now a risk plus an awful appearance.

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Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · Aug 1

For six months, I've said that threats to economic data have been more collateral damage than intentional harm.

No longer.

Firing the head of the BLS is five-alarm intentional harm to the integrity of US economic data and the entire statistical system.

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Lauren Bauer @laurenhlb.bsky.social · Jul 3

I guess we're past the point of persuasion, but don't say we didn't warn you.

www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/...

Proposed SNAP cuts would permanently undermine recession readiness and responsiveness - The Hamilton Project

Lauren Bauer and Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach warn that the budget bill would undermine SNAP's role as an automatic stabilizer during recessions.

www.hamiltonproject.org

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Reposted by Jay Shambaugh

Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · Jul 2

Xi is *this* close to saying "overcapacity". On the tip of his tongue!

China needs to “lawfully regulate enterprises’ disorderly low-price competition, guide companies to improve product quality, promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity”

www.scmp.com/economy/chin...

China’s Xi singles out ‘disorderly low-price competition’ for attention

Officials have favoured a vaguer term – “involutionary competition” – but president cut to the chase at top-level economic meeting.

www.scmp.com

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David Roberts @volts.wtf · Jul 2

Elon Musk casually, and illegally, dismantled USAID. According to a new study in the Lancet, that action will lead to *14 million* premature deaths between 2025 and 2030.

Again: Elon Musk is directly responsible for 14 million coming deaths. 4.5 million will be children.

Evaluating the impact of two decades of USAID interventions and projecting the effects of defunding on mortality up to 2030: a retrospective impact evaluation and forecasting analysis

USAID funding has significantly contributed to the reduction in adult and child mortality across low-income and middle-income countries over the past two decades. Our estimates show that, unless the a...

www.thelancet.com

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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Jul 1

USAID programs have had meaningful impacts around the world, saving lives and bolstering U.S. soft power.

The cuts by the Trump admin have already killed thousands and millions more will die over the next few years. A tragedy.

Atul Gawande @agawande.bsky.social · Jul 1

STAGGERING: This new study of 133 countries is the first to estimate the impact of all USAID’s work. In 2 decades, it has saved *92M* lives. Current cuts, if not reversed, are forecast to cost up to *14M* lives thru 2030. www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Jun 30

Sometimes in policy, there are tradeoffs, but this 1 horrible bill is just awful in all dimensions.

It blows out the debt and deficit leaving us worse prepared for real challenges

Does serious damage to the safety net

Crushes US clean energy industry

Undermines long run growth

Truly awful

Kimberly Clausing @kclausing.bsky.social · Jun 30

One silver lining I see in this terrible OBBB bill is that the entire expert community is aligned against it. That speaks to the integrity of that community.

But it also shows nearly universal acknowledgement that this utterly unprincipled bill will generate costs that far exceed any benefits.

Senator Sheldon Whitehouse @whitehouse.senate.gov · Jun 30

Today, a chamber that once filled me with wonderment made me feel disgust.

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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Jun 14

This story does an excellent job walking through why PEPFAR has been so critical to saving lives and what a successful program it has been. Destroying it and so much else of our overseas aid quickly and haphazardly has been a disaster for people and for US reputation and soft power.

Jonathan Lambert @jonlambert.bsky.social · Jun 13

Take some time to read this really powerful portrait from @gabrielleemanuel.bsky.social on the difference PEPFAR has made in one little girl's life, and how it's unraveled after the Trump administration's cuts to foreign aid, which the House voted to codify yesterday.
www.npr.org/sections/goa...

An AIDS orphan, a pastor and his frantic search for the meds that keep her alive

In the wake of U.S. aid cuts, Pastor Billy is reminded of his twin sister's death from AIDS. He doesn't want 9-year-old Diana, who's HIV-positive, to meet the same fate.

www.npr.org

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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Jun 13

This is an important issue raised by Gillian Tett. One part of the dollar’s central role in the global economy has been the ability / willingness of the Fed to provide liquidity globally via swap lines. If that is called into doubt, it will shift others’ willingness to be exposed to the dollar.

Financial Times @financialtimes.com · Jun 13

Central banks are beginning to fret about dollar swap lines | Opinion

https://www.ft.com/content/4ae6fb0c-c4dd-4827-b85c-946fe615b43b

Central banks are beginning to fret about dollar swap lines | Opinion

Officials outside the US worry about what will happen when Jay Powell leaves the Fed

www.ft.com

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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Jun 12

I’m on the Econofacts podcast with @mwkleinphd.bsky.social this week. Give it a listen to hear about China and international debt. Stick to the end to hear Michael and me discuss the talent in the civil servants at Treasury and why they should be lifted up, not treated like they’re disposable.

EconoFact @econofact.bsky.social · Jun 12

This week on EconoFact Chats, @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social, former Undersecretary of the Treasury discusses trade negotiations with China, foreign investment in sensitive technologies, and sovereign debt challenges. econofact.org/podcast/the-...

The Role of America’s Top Financial Diplomat | Econofact Chats

Jay Shambaugh, Undersecretary of the Treasury for International Affairs in the Biden administration joins EconoFact Chats to discuss his time in office.

econofact.org

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